Probability of axillary node involvement in patients with tubular carcinoma of the breast

The aim of this study was to investigate the frequency of axillary metastasis in women with tubular carcinoma (TC) of the breast. Women who underwent axillary dissection for TC in the Western Sydney area (1984-1995) were identified retrospectively through a search of computerized records. A centralized pathology review was performed and tumours were classified as pure tubular (22) or mixed tubular (nine), on the basis of the invasive component containing 90 per cent or more, or 75-90 per cent tubule formation respectively. A Medline search of the literature was undertaken to compile a collective series (20 studies with a total of 680 patients) to address the frequency of nodal involvement in TC. A quantitative meta-analysis was used to combine the results of these studies. The overall frequency of nodal metastasis was five of 31 (16 per cent); one of 22 pure tubular and four of nine mixed tumours (P = 0.019). None of the tumours with a diameter of 10 mm or less (n = 16) had nodal metastasis compared with five of 15 larger tumours (P = 0.018). The meta-analysis of 680 women showed an overall frequency of nodal metastasis in TC of 13.8 (95 per cent confidence interval 9.3-18.3) per cent. The frequency of nodal involvement was 6.6 (1.7-11.4) per cent in pure TC (n = 244) and 25.0 (12.5-37.6) per cent in mixed TC (n = 149). A case may be made for observing the clinically negative axilla in women with a small TC (10 mm or less in diameter).

Influence of patient age and implantation technique on the probability of re-replacement of the homograft aortic valve

Background and aim of the study: Results of valve re-replacement (reoperation) in 898 patients undergoing aortic valve replacement with cryopreserved homograft valves between 1975 and 1998 are reported. The study aim was to provide estimates of unconditional probability of valve reoperation and cumulative incidence function (actual risk) of reoperation. Methods: Valves were implanted by subcoronary insertion (n = 500), inclusion cylinder (n = 46), and aortic root replacement (n = 352). Probability of reoperation was estimated by adopting a mixture model framework within which estimates were adjusted for two risk factors: patient age at initial replacement, and implantation technique. Results: For a patient aged 50 years, the probability of reoperation in his/her lifetime was estimated as 44% and 56% for non-root and root replacement techniques, respectively. For a patient aged 70 years, estimated probability of reoperation was 16% and 25%, respectively. Given that a reoperation is required, patients with non-root replacement have a higher hazard rate than those with root replacement (hazards ratio = 1.4), indicating that non-root replacement patients tend to undergo reoperation earlier before death than root replacement patients. Conclusion: Younger patient age and root versus non-root replacement are risk factors for reoperation. Valve durability is much less in younger patients, while root replacement patients appear more likely to live longer and hence are more likely to require reoperation.

A genetically informed study of the processes underlying the association between parental marital instability and offspring adjustment

Parental divorce is associated with problematic offspring adjustment, but the relation may be due to shared genetic or environmental factors. One way to test for these confounds is to study offspring of twins discordant for divorce. The current analyses used this design to separate the mechanisms responsible for the association between parental divorce, experienced either before or after the age of 16, and offspring well-being. The results were consistent with a causal role of divorce in earlier initiation of sexual intercourse and emotional difficulties, in addition to a greater probability of educational problems, depressed mood, and suicidal ideation. In contrast, the increased risk for cohabitation and earlier initiation of drug use was explained by selection factors, including genetic confounds.

An initial assessment of policies for saving a rare Australian glider: Experimental results, economics and ecology

Reviews the ecological status of the mahogany glider and describes its distribution, habitat and abundance, life history and threats to it. Three serial surveys of Brisbane residents provide data on the knowledge of respondents about the mahogany glider. The results provide information about the attitudes of respondents to the mahogany glider, to its conservation and relevant public policies and about variations in these factors as the knowledge of participants of the mahogany glider alters. Similarly data is provided and analysed about the willingness to pay of respondents to conserve the mahogany glider. Population viability analysis is applied to estimate the required habitat area for a minimum viable population of the mahogany glider to ensure at least a 95% probability of its survival for 100 years. Places are identified in Queensland where the requisite minimum area of critical habitat can be conserved. Using the survey results as a basis, the likely willingness of groups of Australians to pay for the conservation of the mahogany glider is estimated and consequently their willingness to pay for the minimum required area of its habitat. Methods for estimating the cost of protecting this habitat are outlined. Australia-wide benefits seem to exceed the costs. Establishing a national park containing the minimum viable population of the mahogany glider is an appealing management option. This would also be beneficial in conserving other endangered wildlife species. Therefore, additional economic benefits to those estimated on account of the mahogany glider itself can be obtained.

Long-term potentiation of synaptic transmission in the avian hippocampus

The avian hippocampus plays a pivotal role in memory required for spatial navigation and food storing. Here we have examined synaptic transmission and plasticity within the hippocampal formation of the domestic chicken using an in vitro slice preparation. With the use of sharp microelectrodes we have shown that excitatory synaptic inputs in this structure are glutamatergic and activate both NMDA-and AMPA-type receptors on the postsynaptic membrane. In response to tetanic stimulation, the EPSP displayed a robust long-term potentiation (LTP) lasting >1 hr. This LTP was unaffected by blockade of NMDA receptors or chelation of postsynaptic calcium. Application of forskolin increased the EPSP and reduced paired-pulse facilitation: (PPF), indicating an increase in release probability. In contrast, LTP was not associated with a change in the PPF ratio. Induction of LTP did not occlude the effects of forskolin. Thus, in contrast to NMDA receptor-independent LTP in the mammalian brain, LTP in the chicken hippocampus is not attributable to a change in the probability of transmitter release and does not require activation of adenylyl cyclase, These findings indicate that a novel form of synaptic plasticity might underlie learning in the avian hippocampus.

A study of the stability of subcycling algorithms in structural dynamics

Algorithms for explicit integration of structural dynamics problems with multiple time steps (subcycling) are investigated. Only one such algorithm, due to Smolinski and Sleith has proved to be stable in a classical sense. A simplified version of this algorithm that retains its stability is presented. However, as with the original version, it can be shown to sacrifice accuracy to achieve stability. Another algorithm in use is shown to be only statistically stable, in that a probability of stability can be assigned if appropriate time step limits are observed. This probability improves rapidly with the number of degrees of freedom in a finite element model. The stability problems are shown to be a property of the central difference method itself, which is modified to give the subcycling algorithm. A related problem is shown to arise when a constraint equation in time is introduced into a time-continuous space-time finite element model. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science S.A.

A mathematical model of HIV transmission in NSW prisons

A mathematical model was developed to estimate HIV incidence in NSW prisons. Data included: duration of imprisonment; number of inmates using each needle; lower and higher number of shared injections per IDU per week; proportion of IDUs using bleach; efficacy of bleach; HIV prevalence and probability of infection. HIV prevalence in IDUs in prison was estimated to have risen from 0.8 to 5.7% (12.2%) over 180 weeks when using lower (and higher) values for frequency of shared injections. The estimated minimum (and maximum) number of IDU inmates infected with HIV in NSW prisons was 38 (and 152) in 1993 according to the model. These figures require confirmation by seroincidence studies. (C) 1998 Published by Elsevier Science Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

New techniques for biopsy and culture of human olfactory epithelial neurons

Objective: To improve the success of culturing olfactory neurons from human nasal mucosa by investigating the intranasal distribution of the olfactory epithelium and devising new techniques for growing human olfactory epithelium in vitro. Design: Ninety-seven biopsy specimens were obtained from 33 individuals, aged 21 to 74 years, collected from 6 regions of the nasal cavity. Each biopsy specimen was bisected, and 1 piece was processed for immunohistochemistry or electron microscopy while the other piece was dissected further for explant culture. Four culture techniques were performed, including whole explants and explanted biopsy slices. Five days after plating, neuronal differentiation was induced by means of a medium that contained basic fibroblast growth factor. After another 5 days, cultures were processed for immunocytochemical analysis. Results: The probability of finding olfactory epithelium in a biopsy specimen ranged from 30% to 76%, depending on its location. The dorsoposterior regions of the nasal septum and the superior turbinate provided the highest probability, but, surprisingly, olfactory epithelium was also found anteriorly and ventrally on both septum and turbinates. A new method of culturing the olfactory epithelium was devised. This slice culture technique improved the success rate for generating olfactory neurons from 10% to 90%. Conclusions: This study explains and overcomes most of the variability in the success in observing neurogenesis in cultures of adult human olfactory epithelium. The techniques presented here make the human olfactory epithelium a useful model for clinical research into certain olfactory dysfunctions and a model for the causes of neurodevelopmental and neurodegenerative diseases.

Applying the results of a systematic review in general practice

Objective: To assess how general practitioners might interpret and apply the results of a systematic review relevant to general practice. Design: Cross-sectional postal survey of general practitioners in August 1997. Participants: 51 general practitioners in the Southern Division of General Practice in Adelaide and 11 professors or heads of departments of general practice. Main outcome measures:Extent to which comments on the implications for practice and implications for research coincided with the evidence presented in a systematic review of antibiotics for the treatment of acute otitis media in children; and reported probability that respondents would prescribe antibiotics in three brief case scenarios. Results: There was considerable variation in the comments made by general practitioners on the implications of the review for clinical practice. After reading the review, respondents with training in critical appraisal were more likely to state that children with acute otitis media would usually recover spontaneously and reported a lower probability of prescribing antibiotics in two of the three case scenarios. Conclusions: Providing systematic reviews is not sufficient for the results of such evidence to be translated:into clinical practice. There is an association between critical appraisal skills and the application of evidence-based practice.

Optimal release strategies for biological control agents: an application of stochastic dynamic programming to population management

1. Establishing biological control agents in the field is a major step in any classical biocontrol programme, yet there are few general guidelines to help the practitioner decide what factors might enhance the establishment of such agents. 2. A stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) approach, linked to a metapopulation model, was used to find optimal release strategies (number and size of releases), given constraints on time and the number of biocontrol agents available. By modelling within a decision-making framework we derived rules of thumb that will enable biocontrol workers to choose between management options, depending on the current state of the system. 3. When there are few well-established sites, making a few large releases is the optimal strategy. For other states of the system, the optimal strategy ranges from a few large releases, through a mixed strategy (a variety of release sizes), to many small releases, as the probability of establishment of smaller inocula increases. 4. Given that the probability of establishment is rarely a known entity, we also strongly recommend a mixed strategy in the early stages of a release programme, to accelerate learning and improve the chances of finding the optimal approach.

Inhibition of transmitter release and long-term depression in the avian hippocampus

Long-term depression has recently been shown to occur at glutamatergic synapses in the avian hippocampus and requires activation of calcium/calmodulin-dependent protein kinase II in the nerve terminal. Here using whole cell and intracellular recordings from brain slices, we show that the N-type calcium channel contributes significantly to glutamate release in the avian hippocampus. Activation of the metabotrobic gamma-aminobutyric acid (GABA)(B) receptor by the specific agonist baclofen blocks synaptic transmission. The action of baclofen was associated with a change in paired pulse facilitation indicating that it resulted from a reduction in the probability of transmitter release, In contrast, no change in paired pulse facilitation was observed following the induction of long-term depression. These results show that activation of GABA(B) receptors and long-term depression reduce transmitter release by distinct mechanisms. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Absolute risk of breast cancer for Australian women with a family history

Background: The purpose of the present paper was to estimate the absolute risk of breast cancer over the remainder of a lifetime in Australian women with different categories of family history. Methods: Age-specific breast cancer incidence rates were adjusted for screening effects, and rates in those with no family history were estimated using the attributable fraction (AF). Relative risks from a published meta-analysis were applied to obtain incidence rates for different categories of family history, and age-specific incidence was converted to cumulative risk of breast cancer. The risk estimates were based upon Australian population statistics and published relative risks. Breast cancer incidence was from New South Wales women for 1996. The AF was calculated using prevalence of a family history of breast cancer from data on Queensland women. The cumulative absolute risk of breast cancer was calculated from decade and mid-decade ages to age 79 years, not adjusted for competing causes of death. Results: Lifetime risk is approximately 8.6% (1 in 12) for the general population and 7.8% (1 in 13) for those without a family history. Women with one relative affected have lifetime risks of 1 in 6-8 and those with two relatives affected have lifetime risks of 1 in 4-6. The cumulative residual lifetime risk decreases with advancing age; by age 60 years all groups with only one relative affected have well above a 90% probability of not developing breast cancer to age 79 years. Conclusions: These Australian risk statistics are useful for public information and in the clinical setting. Risks given here apply to women with average breast cancer risk from other risk factors.

A landscape-scale test of the predictive ability of a spatially explicit model for population viability analysis

1. Although population viability analysis (PVA) is widely employed, forecasts from PVA models are rarely tested. This study in a fragmented forest in southern Australia contrasted field data on patch occupancy and abundance for the arboreal marsupial greater glider Petauroides volans with predictions from a generic spatially explicit PVA model. This work represents one of the first landscape-scale tests of its type. 2. Initially we contrasted field data from a set of eucalypt forest patches totalling 437 ha with a naive null model in which forecasts of patch occupancy were made, assuming no fragmentation effects and based simply on remnant area and measured densities derived from nearby unfragmented forest. The naive null model predicted an average total of approximately 170 greater gliders, considerably greater than the true count (n = 81). 3. Congruence was examined between field data and predictions from PVA under several metapopulation modelling scenarios. The metapopulation models performed better than the naive null model. Logistic regression showed highly significant positive relationships between predicted and actual patch occupancy for the four scenarios (P = 0.001-0.006). When the model-derived probability of patch occupancy was high (0.50-0.75, 0.75-1.00), there was greater congruence between actual patch occupancy and the predicted probability of occupancy. 4. For many patches, probability distribution functions indicated that model predictions for animal abundance in a given patch were not outside those expected by chance. However, for some patches the model either substantially over-predicted or under-predicted actual abundance. Some important processes, such as inter-patch dispersal, that influence the distribution and abundance of the greater glider may not have been adequately modelled. 5. Additional landscape-scale tests of PVA models, on a wider range of species, are required to assess further predictions made using these tools. This will help determine those taxa for which predictions are and are not accurate and give insights for improving models for applied conservation management.

H-reflex modulation during passive lengthening and shortening of the human triceps surae

1. The present study investigated the effects of lengthening and shortening actions on IT-reflex amplitude. H-reflexes were evoked in the soleus (SOL) and medial gastroenemius (MG) of human subject, during passive isometric, lengthening and shortening actions performed at angular velocities of 0, +/-2, +/-5 and +/- 15 deg s(-1). 2. H-reflex amplitude, in froth SOL and MG were significantly depressed during passive lengthening actions and facilitated during passive shortening actions, when compared with the isometric R-reflex amplitude. 3. Four experiments were performed in which the latencies front the onset of movement to delivery of the stimulus were altered. Passive H-reflex modulation during lengthening actions was found tee begin at latencies of less than 60 ms suggesting that this inhibition was due to peripheral and/or spinal mechanisms. 4. It is postulated that, the H-reflex modulation seen in the present study is related to the tunic discharge of muscle spindle afferents and the consequent effects of transmission within the la pathway. Inhibition of the H-reflex at less than 60 ms after the onset of muscle lengthening may he attributed to several mechanisms, which cannot be distinguished using the current protocol. These may include the inability to evoke volleys in la fibres that are refractory following muscle spindle discharge during; rapid muscle lengthening, a reduced probability of transmitter release front the presynaptic terminal (homosynaptic post.-activation depression) and presynaptic inhibition of la afferents from plantar flexor agonists. Short latency facilitation of the H-reflex may be attributed to temporal summation of excitatory postsynaptic potentials arising from muscle spindle afferents during rapid muscle lengthening. At longer latencies, presynaptic inhibition of Ia afferents cannot be excluded as a potential inhibitory mechanism.

The coincidences of time travel

In this paper I consider two objections raised by Nick Smith (1997) to an argument against the probability of time travel given by Paul Horwich (1995, 1987). Horwich argues that time travel leads to inexplicable and improbable coincidences. I argue that one of Smith's objections fails, but that another is correct. I also consider an instructive way to defend Horwich's argument against the second of Smith's objections, but show that it too fails. I conclude that unless there is something faulty in the conception of explanation implicit in Horwich's argument, time travel presents us with nothing that is inexplicable.