16 resultados para positive predictive values

em University of Queensland eSpace - Australia


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Objective: The description and evaluation of the performance of a new real-time seizure detection algorithm in the newborn infant. Methods: The algorithm includes parallel fragmentation of EEG signal into waves; wave-feature extraction and averaging; elementary, preliminary and final detection. The algorithm detects EEG waves with heightened regularity, using wave intervals, amplitudes and shapes. The performance of the algorithm was assessed with the use of event-based and liberal and conservative time-based approaches and compared with the performance of Gotman's and Liu's algorithms. Results: The algorithm was assessed on multi-channel EEG records of 55 neonates including 17 with seizures. The algorithm showed sensitivities ranging 83-95% with positive predictive values (PPV) 48-77%. There were 2.0 false positive detections per hour. In comparison, Gotman's algorithm (with 30 s gap-closing procedure) displayed sensitivities of 45-88% and PPV 29-56%; with 7.4 false positives per hour and Liu's algorithm displayed sensitivities of 96-99%, and PPV 10-25%; with 15.7 false positives per hour. Conclusions: The wave-sequence analysis based algorithm displayed higher sensitivity, higher PPV and a substantially lower level of false positives than two previously published algorithms. Significance: The proposed algorithm provides a basis for major improvements in neonatal seizure detection and monitoring. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. on behalf of International Federation of Clinical Neurophysiology.

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A retrospective review was undertaken in 744 patients who were dose-individualized with gentamicin once daily to evaluate a change in gentamicin clearance as a potential predictor of nephrotoxicity. The definition of nephrotoxicity was chosen to be a change in creatinine clearance greater than 20%. Similarly, a change in gentamicin clearance of greater than 20% was also considered a possible index of nephrotoxicity. Four criteria were developed to assess the usefulness of gentamicin clearance as a predictor of nephrotoxicity. Following the application of the inclusion/exclusion criteria, 132 patients were available for the analysis. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value were assessed for each of the criteria. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were produced to determine if an optimum value in the change of gentamicin clearance could be found to maximize sensitivity and specificity. The overall incidence of nephrotoxicity based on a decrease in creatinine clearance by 20% or more was 3.8%. Women were overrepresented in the nephrotoxic group [71.4% versus 40.1% (P = 0.0025)]. Patients with nephrotoxicity had statistically longer treatment periods, increased cumulative dose, and more dosing predictions (P < 0.05 in each case). The sensitivity of the criteria ranged from 43 to 46%, and specificity ranged from 93 to 99%. The positive and negative predictive values ranged from 63 to 94% and 86 to 89%, respectively. In those patients in whom nephrotoxicity was predicted from a change in gentamicin clearance, this change occurred on average 3 days before the change in creatinine clearance (P < 0.05). A change in gentamicin clearance to predict nephrotoxicity may be a useful addition to current monitoring methods, although it is not the complete answer.

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Aim: The aim of this study was to assess the discriminatory power and potential turn around time ( TAT) of a PCR-based method for the detection of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) from screening swabs. Methods: Screening swabs were examined using the current laboratory protocol of direct culture on mannitol salt agar supplemented with oxacillin (MSAO-direct). The PCR method involved pre-incubation in broth for 4 hours followed by a multiplex PCR with primers directed to mecA and nuc genes of MRSA. The reference standard was determined by pre-incubation in broth for 4 hours followed by culture on MSAO (MSAO-broth). Results: A total of 256 swabs was analysed. The rates of detection of MRSA using MSAO-direct, MSAO-broth and PCR were 10.2, 13.3 and 10.2%, respectively. For PCR, the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive values were 66.7% (95% CI 51.9 - 83.3%), 98.6% ( 95% CI 97.1 - 100%), 84.6% ( 95% CI 76.2 - 100%) and 95.2% ( 95% CI 92.4 - 98.0%), respectively, and these results were almost identical to those obtained from MSAO-direct. The agreement between MSAO-direct and PCR was 61.5% ( 95% CI 42.8 - 80.2%) for positive results, 95.6% ( 95% CI 93.0 - 98.2%) for negative results and overall was 92.2% ( 95% CI 88.9 - 95.5%). Conclusions: ( 1) The discriminatory power of PCR and MSAO-direct is similar but the level of agreement, especially for true positive results, is low. ( 2) The potential TAT for the PCR method provides a marked advantage over conventional methods. ( 3) Further modifications to the PCR method such as increased broth incubation time, use of selective broth and adaptation to real-time PCR may lead to improvement in sensitivity and TAT.

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Background: The usefulness of umbilical artery Doppler velocimetry for the monitoring of diabetic pregnancies is controversial. The aim of the present study was to assess whether umbilical artery Doppler velocity waveform analysis can predict adverse perinatal outcomes for pregnancies complicated by pre-existing diabetes mellitus. Methods: All diabetic pregnancies (type 1 and 2) delivered at Mater Mothers' Hospital, Queensland, between 1 January 1995 and 31 December 1999 were included. All pregnant diabetic women were monitored with umbilical artery Doppler velocimetry at 28, 32, 36, and 38 weeks' gestation. Adverse perinatal outcome was defined as pregnancies with one or more of the following: small-for-gestational age, Caesarean section for non-reassuring cardiotocography, fetal acidaemia at delivery, 1-min Apgar of 3 or less, 5-min Apgar of less than 7, hypoxic ischaemic encephalopathy or perinatal death. Abnormal umbilical artery Doppler velocimetry was defined as a pulsatility index of 95th centile or higher for gestation. Results: One hundred and four pregnancies in women with pre-existing diabetes had umbilical arterial Doppler studies carried out during the study period. Twenty-three pregnancies (22.1%) had an elevated pulsatility index. If the scans were carried out within 2 weeks of delivery, 71% of pregnancies with abnormal umbilical Doppler had adverse outcomes (P < 0.01; likelihood ratio, 4.2). However, the sensitivity was 35%; specificity was 94%; positive predictive value was 80%; and negative predictive value was 68%. Only 30% of women with adverse perinatal outcomes had abnormal umbilical arterial Doppler flow. Conclusion: Umbilical artery Doppler velocimetry is not a good predictor of adverse perinatal outcomes in diabetic pregnancies.

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Background : Within a randomized trial of population screening for melanoma, primary care physicians conducted whole-body skin examinations and referred all patients with suspect lesions to their own doctor for further treatment. Objective: Our aim was to describe characteristics of skin screening participants, clinical screening diagnoses, management following referral, and specificity and yield of screening examinations. Methods: Information collected from consent forms, referral forms, and histopathological reports of lesions that had been excised or undergone biopsy was analyzed by means of descriptive statistics. Results: A total of 16,383 whole-body skin examinations resulted in 2302 referrals (14.1% overall; 15.5% men, 18.2% >= 50 years of age) for 4129 suspect lesions (including 222 suspected melanoma, 1101 suspected basal cell carcinomas [BCCs], 265 suspected squamous cell carcinomas [SCCs]). Histopathologic results were available for 94.8% of 1417 lesions excised and confirmed 33 melanomas (23 in men; 24 in participants ? 50 years of age), 259 BCCs, and 97 SCCs. The probability of detecting skin cancer of any type within the program was 2.4%. The estimated specificity of whole-body skin examinations for melanoma was 86.1% (95% confidence interval = 85.6-86.6). The positive predictive value (number of confirmed/number of lesions excised or biopsied x 100) for melanoma was 2.5%, 19.3% for BCC, and 7.2% for SCC (overall positive predictive value for skin cancer, 28.9%). Limitations: Follow-up of participants with a negative screening examination has not been conducted for the present investigation. Conclusions: The rate of skin cancer detected per 100 patients screened was higher than previously reported and men and attendees older than 50 years more frequently received a referral and diagnosis of melanoma. The specificity for detection of melanoma through whole-body skin examination by a primary care physician was comparable to that of other screening tests, including mammography.

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Background: Women who have germline mutations in the BRCA1 gene are at substantially increased lifetime risk of developing breast and ovarian cancer but are otherwise normal. Currently. early age of onset of cancer and a strong family history are relied upon as the chief clues as to who should be offered genetic testing. Certain morphologic and immunohistochemical features are overrepresented in BRCA1-associated breast cancers but these differences have not been incorporated into the current selection criteria for genetic testing. Design: Each of the 4 pathologists studied 30 known cases of BRCA1- and BRCA2-associated breast cancer from kConFab families. After reviewing the literature, we agreed on a semiquantitative scoring system for estimating the chances of presence of an underlying BRCA1 mutation, based on the number of the reported prototypic features present. After a time lag of 12 months, we each examined a series of 62 deidentified cases of breast cancer, inclusive of cases of BRCA1-associated breast cancer and controls. The controls included cases of BRCA2-associated breast cancer and sporadic cases. Results: Our predictions had a sensitivity of 92%, specificity of 86%, positive predictive value of 61%, and negative predictive value of 98%. For comparison the sensitivity of currently used selection criteria are in the range of 25% to 30%. Conclusion: The inclusion of morphologic and immunohistochemical features of breast cancers in algorithms to predict the likelihood of presence of germline mutations in the BRCA1 gene improves the accuracy of the selection process.

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Nucleic acid amplification tests (NAATs) for the detection of Neisseria gonorrhoeae became available in the early 1990s. Although offering several advantages over traditional detection methods, N. gonorrhoeae NAATs do have some limitations. These include cost, risk of carryover contamination, inhibition, and inability to provide antibiotic resistance data. In addition, there are sequence-related limitations that are unique to N. gonorrhoeae NAATs. In particular, false-positive results are a major consideration. These primarily stem from the frequent horizontal genetic exchange occurring within the Neisseria genus, leading to commensal Neisseria species acquiring N. gonorrhoeae genes. Furthermore, some N. gonorrhoeae subtypes may lack specific sequences targeted by a particular NAAT. Therefore, NAAT false-negative results because of sequence variation may occur in some gonococcal populations. Overall, the N. gonorrhoeae species continues to present a considerable challenge for molecular diagnostics. The need to evaluate N. gonorrhoeae NAATs before their use in any new patient population and to educate physicians on the limitations of these tests is emphasized in this review.

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Background: Paediatricians rely on cough descriptors to direct them to the level of investigations needed for a child presenting with chronic cough, yet there is a lack of published data to support this approach. A study was undertaken to evaluate ( 1) whether historical cough pointers can predict which children have a specific cause for their cough and ( 2) the usefulness of chest radiography and spirometry as standard investigations in children with chronic cough. Methods: This was a prospective cohort study of children referred to a tertiary hospital with a cough lasting 3 weeks between June 2002 and July 2004. All included children completed a detailed history and examination using a standardised data collection sheet and followed a pathway of investigation until a diagnosis was made. Results: In 100 consecutively recruited children of median age 2.8 years, the best predictor of specific cough observed was a moist cough at the time of consultation with an odds ratio ( OR) of 9.34 (95% CI 3.49 to 25.03). Chest examination or chest radiographic abnormalities were also predictive with OR 3.60 ( 95% CI 1.31 to 9.90) and 3.16 (95% CI 1.32 to 7.62), respectively. The most significant historical pointer for predicting a specific cause of the cough was a parental history of moist cough ( sensitivity 96%, specificity 26%, positive predictive value 74%). Conclusions: The most useful clinical marker in predicting specific cough is the presence of a daily moist cough. Both chest examination and chest radiographic abnormalities are also useful in predicting whether children have a specific cause of their cough.

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Objectives: To validate verbal autopsy (VA) procedures for use in sample vital registration. Verbal autopsy is an important method for deriving cause-specific mortality estimates where disease burdens are greatest and routine cause-specific mortality data do not exist. Methods: Verbal autopsies and medical records (MR) were collected for 3123 deaths in the perinatal/neonatal period, post-neonatal < 5 age group, and for ages of 5 years and over in Tanzania. Causes of death were assigned by physician panels using the International Classification of Disease, revision 10. Validity was measured by: cause-specific mortality fractions (CSMF); sensitivity; specificity and positive predictive value. Medical record diagnoses were scored for degree of uncertainty, and sensitivity and specificity adjusted. Criteria for evaluating VA performance in generating true proportional mortality were applied. Results: Verbal autopsy produced accurate CSMFs for nine causes in different age groups: birth asphyxia; intrauterine complications; pneumonia; HIV/AIDS; malaria (adults); tuberculosis; cerebrovascular diseases; injuries and direct maternal causes. Results for 20 other causes approached the threshold for good performance. Conclusions: Verbal autopsy reliably estimated CSMFs for diseases of public health importance in all age groups. Further validation is needed to assess reasons for lack of positive results for some conditions.

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In this paper, we are concerned with determining values of lambda, for which there exist positive solutions of the nonlinear eigenvalue problem [GRAPHICS] where a, b, c, d is an element of [0, infinity), xi(i) is an element of (0, 1), alpha(i), beta(i) is an element of [0 infinity) (for i is an element of {1, ..., m - 2}) are given constants, p, q is an element of C ([0, 1], (0, infinity)), h is an element of C ([0, 1], [0, infinity)), and f is an element of C ([0, infinity), [0, infinity)) satisfying some suitable conditions. Our proofs are based on Guo-Krasnoselskii fixed point theorem. (C) 2004 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

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Objective: To evaluate the effectiveness of continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) therapy in the treatment of hypernasality following traumatic brain injury (17111). Design: An A-B-A experimental research design. Assessments were conducted prior to commencement of the program, midway, immediately posttreatment, and 1 month after completion of the CPAP therapy program. Participants: Three adults with dysarthria and moderate to severe hypernasality subsequent to TBI. Outcome Measures: Perceptual evaluation using the Frenchay Dysarthria Assessment, the Assessment of Intelligibility of Dysarthric Speech, and a speech sample analysis, and instrumental evaluation using the Nasometer. Results: Between assessment periods, varying degrees of improvement in hypernasality and sentence intelligibility were noted. At the 1-month post-CPAP assessment, all 3 participants demonstrated reduced nasalance values, and 2 exhibited increased sentence intelligibility. Conclusions: CPAP may be a valuable treatment of impaired velopharyngeal function in the TBI population.

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Pure limestones beneath the paleosols on San Salvador Island, Bahamas, contain strong positive magnetic susceptibility anomalies, although the iron content is generally very low. These magnetic phenomena differ from those associated with disconformities, which are marked by accumulation of paramagnetic airborne dust deposits with relatively high iron content. The strength and characters of the magnetic response in these subsurface zones correspond to the presence of magnetite, particularly small single-domain magnetite crystals of microbial origin. These crystals are not present elsewhere in the intergranular rock pores or microvugs. They are preferentially concentrated in capillary microborings, which developed concurrently with formation of calcite cements that have soil-related C and O isotope compositions. These magnetic zones occur several meters below the overlying soil horizons. Very thin and long linear microborings may be attributable to cyanobacterial microborers. The single-domain magnetites in these micrometer-size tunnels plugged by calcite appear to result from later occupation of these tiny holes by magnetotactic bacteria. Inorganic origin of the magnetite seems unlikely. Numerous traces that suggest subsurface microbial activity provide evidence that may be used to develop possible scenarios for subsequent biological studies of the precise bacteria involved.

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It was hypothesized that employees' perceptions of an organizational culture strong in human relations values and open systems values would be associated with heightened levels of readiness for change which, in turn, would be predictive of change implementation success. Similarly, it was predicted that reshaping capabilities would lead to change implementation success, via its effects on employees' perceptions of readiness for change. Using a temporal research design, these propositions were tested for 67 employees working in a state government department who were about to undergo the implementation of a new end-user computing system in their workplace. Change implementation success was operationalized as user satisfaction and system usage. There was evidence to suggest that employees who perceived strong human relations values in their division at Time 1 reported higher levels of readiness for change at pre-implementation which, in turn, predicted system usage at Time 2. In addition, readiness for change mediated the relationship between reshaping capabilities and system usage. Analyses also revealed that pre-implementation levels of readiness for change exerted a positive main effect on employees' satisfaction with the system's accuracy, user friendliness, and formatting functions at post-implementation. These findings are discussed in terms of their theoretical contribution to the readiness for change literature, and in relation to the practical importance of developing positive change attitudes among employees if change initiatives are to be successful.

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Studies have shown that increased arterial stiffening can be an indication of cardiovascular diseases like hypertension. In clinical practice, this can be detected by measuring the blood pressure (BP) using a sphygmomanometer but it cannot be used for prolonged monitoring. It has been established that pulse wave velocity (PWV) is a direct measure of arterial stiffening but its usefulness is hampered by the absence of non-invasive techniques to estimate it. Pulse transit time (PTT) is a simple and non-invasive method derived from PWV. However, limited knowledge of PTT in children is found in the present literature. The aims of this study are to identify independent variables that confound PTT measure and describe PTT regression equations for healthy children. Therefore, PTT reference values are formulated for future pathological studies. Fifty-five Caucasian children (39 male) aged 8.4 +/- 2.3 yr (range 5-12 yr) were recruited. Predictive equations for PTT were obtained by multiple regressions with age, vascular path length, BP indexes and heart rate. These derived equations were compared in their PWV equivalent against two previously reported equations and significant agreement was obtained (p < 0.05). Findings herein also suggested that PTT can be useful as a continuous surrogate BP monitor in children.