Estimates of global and regional potential health gains from reducing multiple major risk factors

Background Estimates of the disease burden due to multiple risk factors can show the potential gain from combined preventive measures. But few such investigations have been attempted, and none on a global scale. Our aim was to estimate the potential health benefits from removal of multiple major risk factors. Methods We assessed the burden of disease and injury attributable to the joint effects of 20 selected leading risk factors in 14 epidemiological subregions of the world. We estimated population attributable fractions, defined as the proportional reduction in disease or mortality that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to an alternative level, from data for risk factor prevalence and hazard size. For every disease, we estimated joint population attributable fractions, for multiple risk factors, by age and sex, from the direct contributions of individual risk factors. To obtain the direct hazards, we reviewed publications and re-analysed cohort data to account for that part of hazard that is mediated through other risks. Results Globally, an estimated 47% of premature deaths and 39% of total disease burden in 2000 resulted from the joint effects of the risk factors considered. These risks caused a substantial proportion of important diseases, including diarrhoea (92%-94%), lower respiratory infections (55-62%), lung cancer (72%), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (60%), ischaemic heart disease (83-89%), and stroke (70-76%). Removal of these risks would have increased global healthy life expectancy by 9.3 years (17%) ranging from 4.4 years (6%) in the developed countries of the western Pacific to 16.1 years (43%) in parts of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Removal of major risk factors would not only increase healthy life expectancy in every region, but also reduce some of the differences between regions, The potential for disease prevention and health gain from tackling major known risks simultaneously would be substantial.

Estimates of global and regional potential health gains from reducing multiple major risk factors

Background Estimates of the disease burden due to multiple risk factors can show the potential gain from combined preventive measures. But few such investigations have been attempted, and none on a global scale. Our aim was to estimate the potential health benefits from removal of multiple major risk factors. Methods We assessed the burden of disease and injury attributable to the joint effects of 20 selected leading risk factors in 14 epidemiological subregions of the world. We estimated population attributable fractions, defined as the proportional reduction in disease or mortality that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to an alternative level, from data for risk factor prevalence and hazard size. For every disease, we estimated joint population attributable fractions, for multiple risk factors, by age and sex, from the direct contributions of individual risk factors. To obtain the direct hazards, we reviewed publications and re-analysed cohort data to account for that part of hazard that is mediated through other risks. Results Globally, an estimated 47% of premature deaths and 39% of total disease burden in 2000 resulted from the joint effects of the risk factors considered. These risks caused a substantial proportion of important diseases, including diarrhoea (92%-94%), lower respiratory infections (55-62%), lung cancer (72%), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (60%), ischaemic heart disease (83-89%), and stroke (70-76%). Removal of these risks would have increased global healthy life expectancy by 9.3 years (17%) ranging from 4.4 years (6%) in the developed countries of the western Pacific to 16.1 years (43%) in parts of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Removal of major risk factors would not only increase healthy life expectancy in every region, but also reduce some of the differences between regions, The potential for disease prevention and health gain from tackling major known risks simultaneously would be substantial.

5 '-Untranslated regions with multiple upstream AUG codons can support low-level translation via leaky scanning and reinitiation

Upstream AUGs (uAUGs) and upstream open reading frames (uORFs) are common features of mRNAs that encode regulatory proteins and have been shown to profoundly influence translation of the main ORF. In this study, we employed a series of artificial 5'-untranslated regions (5'-UTRs) containing one or more uAUGs/uORFs to systematically assess translation initiation at the main AUG by leaky scanning and reinitiation mechanisms. Constructs containing either one or two uAUGs in varying contexts but without an in-frame stop codon upstream of the main AUG were used to analyse the leaky scanning mechanism. This analysis largely confirmed the ranking of different AUG contextual sequences that was determined previously by Kozak. In addition, this ranking was the same for both the first and second uAUGs, although the magnitude of initiation efficiency differed. Moreover, similar to10% of ribosomes exhibited leaky scanning at uAUGs in the most favourable context and initiated at a downstream AUG. A second group of constructs containing different numbers of uORFs, each with optimal uAUGs, were used to measure the capacity for reinitiation. We found significant levels of initiation at the main ORF even in constructs containing four uORFs, with nearly 10% of ribosomes capable of reinitiating five times. This study shows that for mRNAs containing multiple uORFs/uAUGs, ribosome reinitiation and leaky scanning are efficient mechanisms for initiation at their main AUGs.

Molecular characterization and cancer risk associated with BRCA1 and BRCA2 splice site variants identified in multiple-case breast cancer families

Genetic screening of women from multiple-case breast cancer families and other research-based endeavors have identified an extensive collection of germline variations of BRCA1 and BRCA2 that can be classified as deleterious and have clinical relevance. For some variants, such as those in the conserved intronic splice site regions which are highly likely to alter splicing, it is not possible to classify them based on the identified DNA sequence variation alone. We studied 11 multiple-case breast cancer families carrying seven distinct splice site region genetic alterations in BRCA1 or BRCA2 (BRCA1, c.IVS6-2delA, c.IVS9-2A>C, c.IVS4-1G>T, c.IVS20+1G>A and BRCA2, c.IVS17-1G>C, c.IVS20+1G>A, c.IVS7-1G>A) and applied SpliceSiteFinder to predict possible changes in efficiency of splice donor and acceptor sites, characterized the transcripts, and estimated the average age-specific cumulative risk (penetrance) using a modified segregation analysis. SpliceSiteFinder predicted and we identified transcipts that illustrated that all variants caused exon skipping, and all but two led to frameshifts. The risks of breast cancer to age 70 yrs, averaged over all variants, over BRCA1 variants alone, and over BRCA2 variants alone, were 73% (95% confidence interval 47-93), 64% (95%CI 28-96) and 79% (95%CI 48-98) respectively (all P

Relations between social support, appraisal and coping and both positive and negative outcomes for children of a parent with multiple sclerosis and comparisons with children of healthy parents

Objective: To examine adjustment in children of a parent with multiple sclerosis within a stress and coping framework and compare them with those who have 'healthy' parents. Subjects: A total of 193 participants between 10 and 25 years completed questionnaires; 48 youngsters who had a parent with multiple sclerosis and 145 youngsters who reported that they did not have a parent with an illness or disability. Method: A questionnaire survey methodology was used. Variable sets included caregiving context (e.g. additional parental illness, family responsibilities, parental functional impairment, choice in helping), social support (network size, satisfaction), stress appraisal, coping (problem solving, seeking support, acceptance, wishful thinking, denial), and positive (life satisfaction, positive affect, benefits) and negative (distress, health) adjustment outcomes. Results: Caregiving context variables significantly correlated with poorer adjustment in children of a parent with multiple sclerosis included additional parental illness, higher family responsibilities, parental functional impairment and unpredictability of the parent's multiple sclerosis, and less choice in helping. As predicted, better adjustment in children of a parent with multiple sclerosis was related to higher levels of social support, lower stress appraisals, greater reliance on approach coping strategies (problem solving, seeking support and acceptance) and less reliance on avoidant coping (wishful thinking and denial). Compared with children of 'healthy' parents, children of a parent with multiple sclerosis reported greater family responsibilities, less reliance on problem solving and seeking social support coping, higher somatization and lower life satisfaction and positive affect. Conclusions: Findings delineate the key impacts of young caregiving and support a stress and coping model of adjustment in children of a parent with multiple sclerosis.

Off-line signature verification and forgery detection system based on fuzzy modeling

This paper presents an innovative approach for signature verification and forgery detection based on fuzzy modeling. The signature image is binarized and resized to a fixed size window and is then thinned. The thinned image is then partitioned into a fixed number of eight sub-images called boxes. This partition is done using the horizontal density approximation approach. Each sub-image is then further resized and again partitioned into twelve further sub-images using the uniform partitioning approach. The features of consideration are normalized vector angle (α) from each box. Each feature extracted from sample signatures gives rise to a fuzzy set. Since the choice of a proper fuzzification function is crucial for verification, we have devised a new fuzzification function with structural parameters, which is able to adapt to the variations in fuzzy sets. This function is employed to develop a complete forgery detection and verification system.

Existence of Multiple Solutions for Second Order Boundary Value Problems

We give conditions on f involving pairs of lower and upper solutions which lead to the existence of at least three solutions of the two point boundary value problem y" + f(x, y, y') = 0, x epsilon [0, 1], y(0) = 0 = y(1). In the special case f(x, y, y') = f(y) greater than or equal to 0 we give growth conditions on f and apply our general result to show the existence of three positive solutions. We give an example showing this latter result is sharp. Our results extend those of Avery and of Lakshmikantham et al.

Neuroarchitecture of the color and polarization vision system of the stomatopod haptosquilla

The apposition compound eyes of stomatopod crustaceans contain a morphologically distinct eye region specialized for color and polarization vision, called the mid-band. In two stomatopod superfamilies, the mid-band is constructed from six rows of enlarged ommatidia containing multiple photoreceptor classes for spectral and polarization vision. The aim of this study was to begin to analyze the underlying neuroarchitecture, the design of which might reveal clues how the visual system interprets and communicates to deeper levels of the brain the multiple channels of information supplied by the retina. Reduced silver methods were used to investigate the axon pathways from different retinal regions to the lamina ganglionaris and from there to the medulla externa, the medulla interna, and the medulla terminalis. A swollen band of neuropil-here termed the accessory lobe-projects across the equator of. the lamina ganglionaris, the medulla externa, and the medulla interna and represents, structurally, the retina's mid-band. Serial semithin and ultrathin resin sections were used to reconstruct the projection of photoreceptor axons from the retina to the lamina ganglionaris. The eight axons originating from one ommatidium project to the same lamina cartridge. Seven short visual fibers end at two distinct levels in each lamina cartridge, thus geometrically separating the two channels of polarization and spectral information. The eighth visual fiber runs axially through the cartridge and terminates in the medulla externa. We conclude that spatial, color, and polarization information is divided into three parallel data streams from the retina to the central nervous system. (C) 2003 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Radiation of the Australian flora: What can comparisons of molecular phylogenies across multiple taxa tell us about the evolution of diversity in present-day communities?

The Australian fossil record shows that from ca. 25 Myr ago, the aseasonal-wet biome (rainforest and wet heath) gave way to the unique Australian sclerophyll biomes dominated by eucalypts, acacias and casuarinas. This transition coincided with tectonic isolation of Australia, leading to cooler, drier, more seasonal climates. From 3 Myr ago, aridification caused rapid opening of the central Australian and zone. Molecular phylogenies with dated nodes have provided new perspectives on how these events could have affected the evolution of the Australian flora. During the Mid-Cenozoic (25-10 Myr ago) period of climatic change, there were rapid radiations in sclerophyll taxa, such as Banksia, eucalypts, pea-flowered legumes and Allocasuarina. At the same time, taxa restricted to the aseasonal-wet biome (Nothofagus, Podocarpaceae and Araucariaceae) did not radiate or were depleted by extinction. During the Pliocene aridification, two Eremean biome taxa (Lepidium and Chenopodiaceae) radiated rapidly after dispersing into Australia from overseas. It is clear that the biomes have different histories. Lineages in the aseasonal-wet biome are species poor, with sister taxa that are species rich, either outside Australia or in the sclerophyll biomes. In conjunction with the fossil record, this indicates depletion of the Australian aseasonal-wet biome from the Mid-Cenozoic. In the sclerophyll biomes, there have been multiple exchanges between the southwest and southeast, rather than single large endemic radiations after a vicariance event. There is need for rigorous molecular phylogenetic studies so that additional questions can be addressed, such as how interactions between biomes may have driven the speciation process during radiations. New studies should include the hither-to neglected monsoonal tropics.

A review of the impact of education and prior experience on new venture performance

The importance of education and experience to the successful performance of new firms is well recognized both by management practitioners and academics. Yet empirical research to support the significance of this relationship is inconclusive. This paper discusses theories describing the relationship between education and experience and firm performance. It also analyses and classifies the differing measures of performance, education and experience, and compares the results of multiple studies undertaken between 1977 and 2000. Possible reasons for conflicting results are identified, such as lack of sound theoretical bases that relate education and experience to performance, varying definitions of the key variables and the diversity of measures used. Finally, a framework is developed that incorporates variables that interact with experience and education to influence new venture performance.

Stem cells in the aetiopathogenesis and therapy of rheumatic disease

Animal models of autoimmune disease and case reports of patients with these diseases who have been involved in bone marrow transplants have provided important data implicating the haemopoietic stem cell in rheumatic disease pathogenesis. Animal and human examples exist for both cure and transfer of rheumatoid arthritis, systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) and other organ-specific diseases using allogeneic haemopoietic stem cell transplantation. This would suggest that the stem cell in these diseases is abnormal and could be cured by replacement of a normal stem cell although more in vitro data are required in this area. Given the morbidity and increased mortality in some patients with severe autoimmune diseases and the increasing safety of autologous haemopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT), pilot studies have been conducted using HSCT in rheumatic diseases. It is still unclear whether an autologous graft will cure these diseases but significant remissions have been obtained which have provided important data for the design of randomized trials of HSCT versus more conventional therapy. Several trials are now open to accrual under the auspices of the European Bone Marrow Transplant Group/European League Against Rheumatism (EBMT/EULAR) registry. Future clinical and laboratory research will need to document the abnormalities of the stem cell of a rheumatic patient because new therapies based on gene therapy or stem cell differentiation could be apllied to these diseases. With increasing safety of allogeneic HSCT it is not unreasonable to predict cure of some rheumatic diseases in the near future.

Sociality and the rate of molecular evolution

The molecular clock does not tick at a uniform rate in all taxa but maybe influenced by species characteristics. Eusocial species (those with reproductive division of labor) have been predicted to have faster rates of molecular evolution than their nonsocial relatives because of greatly reduced effective population size; if most individuals in a population are nonreproductive and only one or few queens produce all the offspring, then eusocial animals could have much lower effective population sizes than their solitary relatives, which should increase the rate of substitution of nearly neutral mutations. An earlier study reported faster rates in eusocial honeybees and vespid wasps but failed to correct for phylogenetic nonindependence or to distinguish between potential causes of rate variation. Because sociality has evolved independently in many different lineages, it is possible to conduct a more wide-ranging study to test the generality of the relationship. We have conducted a comparative analysis of 25 phylogenetically independent pairs of social lineages and their nonsocial relatives, including bees, wasps, ants, termites, shrimps, and mole rats, using a range of available DNA sequences (mitochondrial and nuclear DNA coding for proteins and RNAs, and nontranslated sequences). By including a wide range of social taxa, we were able to test whether there is a general influence of sociality on rates of molecular evolution and to test specific predictions of the hypothesis: (1) that social species have faster rates because they have reduced effective population sizes; (2) that mitochondrial genes would show a greater effect of sociality than nuclear genes; and (3) that rates of molecular evolution should be correlated with the degree of sociality. We find no consistent pattern in rates of molecular evolution between social and nonsocial lineages and no evidence that mitochondrial genes show faster rates in social taxa. However, we show that the most highly eusocial Hymenoptera do have faster rates than their nonsocial relatives. We also find that social parasites (that utilize the workers from related species to produce their own offspring) have faster rates than their social relatives, which is consistent with an effect of lower effective population size on rate of molecular evolution. Our results illustrate the importance of allowing for phylogenetic nonindependence when conducting investigations of determinants of variation in rate of molecular evolution.

Repeated occurrence of basal cell carcinoma of the skin and multifailure survival analysis: Follow-up data from the nambour skin cancer prevention trial

The aim of this study was to apply multifailure survival methods to analyze time to multiple occurrences of basal cell carcinoma (BCC). Data from 4.5 years of follow-up in a randomized controlled trial, the Nambour Skin Cancer Prevention Trial (1992-1996), to evaluate skin cancer prevention were used to assess the influence of sunscreen application on the time to first BCC and the time to subsequent BCCs. Three different approaches of time to ordered multiple events were applied and compared: the Andersen-Gill, Wei-Lin-Weissfeld, and Prentice-Williams-Peterson models. Robust variance estimation approaches were used for all multifailure survival models. Sunscreen treatment was not associated with time to first occurrence of a BCC (hazard ratio = 1.04, 95% confidence interval: 0.79, 1.45). Time to subsequent BCC tumors using the Andersen-Gill model resulted in a lower estimated hazard among the daily sunscreen application group, although statistical significance was not reached (hazard ratio = 0.82, 95% confidence interval: 0.59, 1.15). Similarly, both the Wei-Lin-Weissfeld marginal-hazards and the Prentice-Williams-Peterson gap-time models revealed trends toward a lower risk of subsequent BCC tumors among the sunscreen intervention group. These results demonstrate the importance of conducting multiple-event analysis for recurring events, as risk factors for a single event may differ from those where repeated events are considered.