Precautionary principles: a jurisdiction-free framework for decision-making under risk

Fundamental principles of precaution are legal maxims that ask for preventive actions, perhaps as contingent interim measures while relevant information about causality and harm remains unavailable, to minimize the societal impact of potentially severe or irreversible outcomes. Such principles do not explain how to make choices or how to identify what is protective when incomplete and inconsistent scientific evidence of causation characterizes the potential hazards. Rather, they entrust lower jurisdictions, such as agencies or authorities, to make current decisions while recognizing that future information can contradict the scientific basis that supported the initial decision. After reviewing and synthesizing national and international legal aspects of precautionary principles, this paper addresses the key question: How can society manage potentially severe, irreversible or serious environmental outcomes when variability, uncertainty, and limited causal knowledge characterize their decision-making? A decision-analytic solution is outlined that focuses on risky decisions and accounts for prior states of information and scientific beliefs that can be updated as subsequent information becomes available. As a practical and established approach to causal reasoning and decision-making under risk, inherent to precautionary decision-making, these (Bayesian) methods help decision-makers and stakeholders because they formally account for probabilistic outcomes, new information, and are consistent and replicable. Rational choice of an action from among various alternatives-defined as a choice that makes preferred consequences more likely-requires accounting for costs, benefits and the change in risks associated with each candidate action. Decisions under any form of the precautionary principle reviewed must account for the contingent nature of scientific information, creating a link to the decision-analytic principle of expected value of information (VOI), to show the relevance of new information, relative to the initial ( and smaller) set of data on which the decision was based. We exemplify this seemingly simple situation using risk management of BSE. As an integral aspect of causal analysis under risk, the methods developed in this paper permit the addition of non-linear, hormetic dose-response models to the current set of regulatory defaults such as the linear, non-threshold models. This increase in the number of defaults is an important improvement because most of the variants of the precautionary principle require cost-benefit balancing. Specifically, increasing the set of causal defaults accounts for beneficial effects at very low doses. We also show and conclude that quantitative risk assessment dominates qualitative risk assessment, supporting the extension of the set of default causal models.

Quantifying the use of the statin antilipemic drugs: Comparisons and contrasts between Nova Scotia, Canada, and Queensland, Australia

Background: jurisdictions are developing public drug insurance systems to improve access to pharmaceuticals, cost-effective prescribing, and patient health and well-being. We compared 2 Jurisdictions with different pharmaceutical policies to determine prescribing patterns for 3-hydroxy-3-methylglutaryl coenzyme A reductase inhibitors (le, statins). Objective: The aim of this work was to investigate the feasibility of using available prescription admimstrative databases to compare the use of statins in Queensland, Australia, and in Nova Scotia, Canada. Methods: Data from the Nova Scotia Pharmacare Program and the Health Insurance Commission in Australia were used to obtain dispensing data. Utilization was compared for the 5-year period from 1997 through 2001, using the World Health Organization anatomic therapeutic chemical/defined daily dose (DDD) system. Results: In the year 2001, there were 177,000 beneficiaries in the public drug plan in Nova Scotia (62% aged ≥ 65 years old) and 960,000 concession beneficiaries (pensioners and social security recipients, 61% aged ≥ 65 years) in Queensland. These 2 groups were comparable. The overall utilization of statin medications increased steadily in both areas over the study period, from 50 to 205 DDD/1000 beneficiaries per day. Comparison of the 2 growth lines showed no statistically significant differences in overall statin use despite differences in brand availabilities and policies about prescribing. In the year 2001, atorvastatin was the most commonly prescribed statin in both areas, comprising 46% of statin use in Nova Scotia and 51% in Queensland. Mean doses of each statin prescribed were slightly above the DDDs. Expenditure on statins per 1000 beneficiaries and per DDD were similar in each jurisdiction, being slightly higher in Nova Scotia. Conclusions: Despite differences in pharmaceutical reimbursement systems, use of the statins was similar in Nova Scotia and Queensland. The feasibility of the methodology was demonstrated. Future studies, including comparisons of drug utilization for other classes of drugs for which drug policies may be divergent (eg, different pricing structures or prior authorization requirements), or for which less evidence for appropriate use is available, may be useful. © 2005 Excerpta Medica, Inc.

Transnational organised crime and the International Criminal Court developments and debates

Limitation to jurisdiction of International Criminal Court (ICC) - proposal to strengthen the universal criminalisation of transnational organised crimes by enabling them to be prosecuted through an international authority - debate on whether existing offences under the ICC Statute encompass certain transnational organised crimes - whether the Statute should be expanded to include crimes that have been recognised in international treaties.

Legislative and regulatory measures for preventing alcohol-related drownings and near-drownings

Objective: Alcohol contributes to about 30% of drowning fatalities associated with recreational aquatic activity and to 35% of drownings associated with boating. We consider regulatory and legislative strategies for preventing such deaths. Methods: We contacted water police in each Australian State and Territory to identify legislation creating alcohol-related offences for operators of recreational boats in their jurisdiction and to determine whether they conducted random breath testing (RBT). We also sought information from all 152 (81 urban and 71 rural) local government councils in NSW regarding restrictions on consumption of alcohol in public places within their shires. Results: Four Australian States (New South Wales, Queensland, Victoria and South Australia) have legislation prescribing maximum blood alcohol concentrations (BACs) for operators of recreational boats; all support this with RBT Western Australia, Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory define more general offences for operating vessels while under the influence, of alcohol. Prohibitions or restrictions on consumption of alcohol in public places exist in 78 of the 86 shires in NSW that responded: 69 councils had alcohol-free zones, 53 restricted consumption of alcohol in public parks and reserves, and 33 had prohibitions or restrictions in some aquatic environments. Conclusions/implications: Legislation restricting BACs for recreational boat operators should be adopted in all Australian States and Territories. Optimal legislation would require that all occupants of recreational boats are required to comply with prescribed BAC levels, including when vessels are at anchor. Extension of by-laws prohibiting or restricting the consumption of alcohol specifically in aquatic environments warrants consideration.

A new methodology for generation investment in the national electricity market of Australia

Market administrators hold the vital role of maintaining sufficient generation capacity in their respective electricity market. However without the jurisdiction to dictate the generator types, locations and timing of new generation, the reliability of the system may be compromised by delayed entry of new generation. This paper illustrates a new generation investment methodology that can effectively present expected returns from the pool market; while concurrently searching for the type and placement of a new generator to fulfil system reliability requirements.