Production under uncertainty and choice under uncertainty in the emergence of generalized expected utility theory

This paper presents a personal view of the interaction between the analysis of choice under uncertainty and the analysis of production under uncertainty. Interest in the foundations of the theory of choice under uncertainty was stimulated by applications of expected utility theory such as the Sandmo model of production under uncertainty. This interest led to the development of generalized models including rank-dependent expected utility theory. In turn, the development of generalized expected utility models raised the question of whether such models could be used in the analysis of applied problems such as those involving production under uncertainty. Finally, the revival of the state-contingent approach led to the recognition of a fundamental duality between choice problems and production problems.

An agent-based approach to modelling driver route choice behaviour under the influence of real-time information

This paper presents an agent-based approach to modelling individual driver behaviour under the influence of real-time traffic information. The driver behaviour models developed in this study are based on a behavioural survey of drivers which was conducted on a congested commuting corridor in Brisbane, Australia. Commuters' responses to travel information were analysed and a number of discrete choice models were developed to determine the factors influencing drivers' behaviour and their propensity to change route and adjust travel patterns. Based on the results obtained from the behavioural survey, the agent behaviour parameters which define driver characteristics, knowledge and preferences were identified and their values determined. A case study implementing a simple agent-based route choice decision model within a microscopic traffic simulation tool is also presented. Driver-vehicle units (DVUs) were modelled as autonomous software components that can each be assigned a set of goals to achieve and a database of knowledge comprising certain beliefs, intentions and preferences concerning the driving task. Each DVU provided route choice decision-making capabilities, based on perception of its environment, that were similar to the described intentions of the driver it represented. The case study clearly demonstrated the feasibility of the approach and the potential to develop more complex driver behavioural dynamics based on the belief-desire-intention agent architecture. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analysis of acousto-ultrasonic characteristics for contact-type transducers coupled to composite laminated plates

The acousto-ultrasonic (AU) input-output characteristics for contact-type transmitting and receiving transducers coupled to composite laminated plates are considered in this paper. Combining a multiple integral transform method, an ordinary discrete layer theory for the laminates and some simplifying assumptions for the electro-mechanical transduction behaviour of the transducers, an analytical solution is developed which can deal with all the wave processes involved in the AU measurement system, i.e, wave generation, wave propagation and wave reception. The spectral response of the normal contact pressure sensed by the receiving transducer due to an arbitrary input pulse excited by the transmitting transducer is obtained. To validate the new analytical-numerical spectral technique in the low-frequency regime, the results are compared with Mindlin plate theory solutions. Based on the analytical results, numerical calculations are carried out to investigate the influence of various external parameters such as frequency content of the input pulse, transmitter/receiver spacing and transducer aperture on the output of the measurement system. The results show that the presented analytical-numerical procedure is an effective tool for understanding the input-output characteristics of the AU technique for laminated plates. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modelling of Lamb waves in composite laminated plates excited by interdigital transducers

The technique of permanently attaching interdigital transducers (IDT) to either flat or curved structural surfaces to excite single Lamb wave mode has demonstrated great potential for quantitative non-destructive evaluation and smart materials design, In this paper, the acoustic wave field in a composite laminated plate excited by an IDT is investigated. On the basis of discrete layer theory and a multiple integral transform method, an analytical-numerical approach is developed to evaluate the surface velocity response of the plate due to the IDTs excitation. In this approach, the frequency spectrum and wave number spectrum of the output of IDT are obtained directly. The corresponding time domain results are calculated by applying a standard inverse fast Fourier transformation technique. Numerical examples are presented to validate the developed method and show the ability of mode selection and isolation. A new effective way of transfer function estimation and interpretation is presented by considering the input wave number spectrum in addition to the commonly used input frequency spectrum. The new approach enables the simple physical evaluation of the influences of IDT geometrical features such as electrode finger widths and overall dimension and excitation signal properties on the input-output characteristics of IDT. Finally, considering the convenience of Mindlin plate wave theory in numerical computations as well as theoretical analysis, the validity is examined of using this approximate theory to design IDT for the excitation of the first and second anti-symmetric Lamb modes. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Single mode Lamb waves in composite laminated plates generated by piezoelectric transducers

The technique of permanently attaching piezoelectric transducers to structural surfaces has demonstrated great potential for quantitative non-destructive evaluation and smart materials design. For thin structural members such as composite laminated plates, it has been well recognized that guided Lamb wave techniques can provide a very sensitive and effective means for large area interrogation. However, since in these applications multiple wave modes are generally generated and the individual modes are usually dispersive, the received signals are very complex and difficult to interpret. An attractive way to deal with this problem has recently been introduced by applying piezoceramic transducer arrays or interdigital transducer (IDT) technologies. In this paper, the acoustic wave field in composite laminated plates excited by piezoceramic transducer arrays or IDT is investigated. Based on dynamic piezoelectricity theory, a discrete layer theory and a multiple integral transform method, an analytical-numerical approach is developed to evaluate the input impedance characteristics of the transducer and the surface velocity response of the plate. The method enables the quantitative evaluation of the influence of the electrical characteristics of the excitation circuit, the geometric and piezoelectric properties of the transducer array, and the mechanical and geometrical features of the laminate. Numerical results are presented to validate the developed method and show the ability of single wave mode selection and isolation. The results show that the interaction between individual elements of the piezoelectric array has a significant influence on the performance of the IDT, and these effects can not be neglected even in the case of low frequency excitation. It is also demonstrated that adding backing materials to the transducer elements can be used to improve the excitability of specific wave modes. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Physical activity and sedentary behavior: A population-based study of barriers, enjoyment, and preference

The associations of physical activity and sedentary behavior with barriers, enjoyment, and preferences were examined in a population-based mail survey of 1,332 adults. Respondents reporting high enjoyment and preference for physical activity were more likely to report high levels of activity. Those reporting cost, the weather, and personal barriers to physical activity were less likely to be physically active. Preference for sedentary behavior was associated with the decreased likelihood of being physically active, and the weather as a barrier to physical activity was associated with the increased likelihood of sedentary behavior. These constructs can be used to examine individual and environmental influences on physical activity and sedentary behavior in specific populations and could inform the development of targeted interventions.

The market for preferences

Learning processes are widely held to be the mechanism by which boundedly rational agents adapt to environmental changes. We argue that this same outcome might also be achieved by a different mechanism, namely specialisation and the division of knowledge, which we here extend to the consumer side of the economy. We distinguish between high-level preferences and low-level preferences as nested systems of rules used to solve particular choice problems. We argue that agents, while sovereign in high-level preferences, may often find it expedient to acquire, in a pseudo-market, the low-level preferences in order to make good choices when purchasing complex commodities about which they have little or no experience. A market for preferences arises when environmental complexity overwhelms learning possibilities and leads agents to make use of other people's specialised knowledge and decision rules.

Two conceptions of reason

Two conceptions of reason are considered - the planning conception, embodied, for example, in rational choice theory and other familiar paradigms, and the improvisational conception, emerging from work on artificial intelligence and organization theory. Two illustrations are given of the problematic nature of the planning conception: ( 1) the inevitability of incompleteness in contracting and ( 2) the burdens of reason identified by John Rawls. Two diagnoses are provided for these infirmities: ( 1) the inexhaustibility of description and ( 2) the constructed nature of preferences and values. An alternative improvisational model is sketched and risk-spreading and bet-hedging are identified as two of its key technologies.

Group theory and quasiprobability integrals of Wigner functions

The integral of the Wigner function of a quantum-mechanical system over a region or its boundary in the classical phase plane, is called a quasiprobability integral. Unlike a true probability integral, its value may lie outside the interval [0, 1]. It is characterized by a corresponding selfadjoint operator, to be called a region or contour operator as appropriate, which is determined by the characteristic function of that region or contour. The spectral problem is studied for commuting families of region and contour operators associated with concentric discs and circles of given radius a. Their respective eigenvalues are determined as functions of a, in terms of the Gauss-Laguerre polynomials. These polynomials provide a basis of vectors in a Hilbert space carrying the positive discrete series representation of the algebra su(1, 1) approximate to so(2, 1). The explicit relation between the spectra of operators associated with discs and circles with proportional radii, is given in terms of the discrete variable Meixner polynomials.

Discrete and continuous models for dry masonry columns

The dynamic response of dry masonry columns can be approximated with finite-difference equations. Continuum models follow by replacing the difference quotients of the discrete model by corresponding differential expressions. The mathematically simplest of these models is a one-dimensional Cosserat theory. Within the presented homogenization context, the Cosserat theory is obtained by making ad hoc assumptions regarding the relative importance of certain terms in the differential expansions. The quality of approximation of the various theories is tested by comparison of the dispersion relations for bending waves with the dispersion relation of the discrete theory. All theories coincide with differences of less than 1% for wave-length-block-height (L/h) ratios bigger than 2 pi. The theory based on systematic differential approximation remains accurate up to L/h = 3 and then diverges rapidly. The Cosserat model becomes increasingly inaccurate for L/h < 2 pi. However, in contrast to the systematic approximation, the wave speed remains finite. In conclusion, considering its relative simplicity, the Cosserat model appears to be the natural starting point for the development of continuum models for blocky structures.

A Comparison of Bayesian and Sampling Theory Inferences in a Probit Model

HE PROBIT MODEL IS A POPULAR DEVICE for explaining binary choice decisions in econometrics. It has been used to describe choices such as labor force participation, travel mode, home ownership, and type of education. These and many more examples can be found in papers by Amemiya (1981) and Maddala (1983). Given the contribution of economics towards explaining such choices, and given the nature of data that are collected, prior information on the relationship between a choice probability and several explanatory variables frequently exists. Bayesian inference is a convenient vehicle for including such prior information. Given the increasing popularity of Bayesian inference it is useful to ask whether inferences from a probit model are sensitive to a choice between Bayesian and sampling theory techniques. Of interest is the sensitivity of inference on coefficients, probabilities, and elasticities. We consider these issues in a model designed to explain choice between fixed and variable interest rate mortgages. Two Bayesian priors are employed: a uniform prior on the coefficients, designed to be noninformative for the coefficients, and an inequality restricted prior on the signs of the coefficients. We often know, a priori, whether increasing the value of a particular explanatory variable will have a positive or negative effect on a choice probability. This knowledge can be captured by using a prior probability density function (pdf) that is truncated to be positive or negative. Thus, three sets of results are compared:those from maximum likelihood (ML) estimation, those from Bayesian estimation with an unrestricted uniform prior on the coefficients, and those from Bayesian estimation with a uniform prior truncated to accommodate inequality restrictions on the coefficients.