Vector Error-Correction Models in a consumer packaged goods category forecasting decision support system

A framework for developing marketing category management decision support systems (DSS) based upon the Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (BVAR) model is extended. Since the BVAR model is vulnerable to permanent and temporary shifts in purchasing patterns over time, a form that can correct for the shifts and still provide the other advantages of the BVAR is a Bayesian Vector Error-Correction Model (BVECM). We present the mechanics of extending the DSS to move from a BVAR model to the BVECM model for the category management problem. Several additional iterative steps are required in the DSS to allow the decision maker to arrive at the best forecast possible. The revised marketing DSS framework and model fitting procedures are described. Validation is conducted on a sample problem.

Intelligent decision support for family financial planning

In today’s financial markets characterized by constantly changing tax laws and increasingly complex transactions, the demand for family financial planning (FFP) services is rising dramatically. However, the current trend to develop advisory systems that focus mainly on the financial or investment side fails to consider the whole picture of FFP. Separating financial or investment advice from legal and accounting advice may result in conflicting advice or important omissions that could lead to users suffering financial loss. In this paper, we propose a conceptual model for FFP decision-making process, followed by a novel architecture to support an aggregated FFP decision process by utilizing intelligentagents and Web-services technology. A prototype system for supporting FFP decision is presented to demonstrate the advances of the proposed Web-service multi-agentsbased system architecture and business value.

Incorporating level set methods in Geographical Information Systems (GIS) for land-surface process modelling

Land-surface processes include a broad class of models that operate at a landscape scale. Current modelling approaches tend to be specialised towards one type of process, yet it is the interaction of processes that is increasing seen as important to obtain a more integrated approach to land management. This paper presents a technique and a tool that may be applied generically to landscape processes. The technique tracks moving interfaces across landscapes for processes such as water flow, biochemical diffusion, and plant dispersal. Its theoretical development applies a Lagrangian approach to motion over a Eulerian grid space by tracking quantities across a landscape as an evolving front. An algorithm for this technique, called level set method, is implemented in a geographical information system (GIS). It fits with a field data model in GIS and is implemented as operators in map algebra. The paper describes an implementation of the level set methods in a map algebra programming language, called MapScript, and gives example program scripts for applications in ecology and hydrology.