Forecasting regional crop production using SOI phases: an example for the Australian peanut industry

Using peanuts as an example, a generic methodology is presented to forward-estimate regional crop production and associated climatic risks based on phases of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Yield fluctuations caused by a highly variable rainfall environment are of concern to peanut processing and marketing bodies. The industry could profitably use forecasts of likely production to adjust their operations strategically. Significant, physically based lag-relationships exist between an index of ocean/atmosphere El Nino/Southern Oscillation phenomenon and future rainfall in Australia and elsewhere. Combining knowledge of SOI phases in November and December with output from a dynamic simulation model allows the derivation of yield probability distributions based on historic rainfall data. This information is available shortly after planting a crop and at least 3-5 months prior to harvest. The study shows that in years when the November-December SOI phase is positive there is an 80% chance of exceeding average district yields. Conversely, in years when the November-December SOI phase is either negative or rapidly falling there is only a 5% chance of exceeding average district yields, but a 95% chance of below average yields. This information allows the industry to adjust strategically for the expected volume of production. The study shows that simulation models can enhance SOI signals contained in rainfall distributions by discriminating between useful and damaging rainfall events. The methodology can be applied to other industries and regions.

Increasing profits and reducing risks in crop production using participatory systems simulation approaches

The development of cropping systems simulation capabilities world-wide combined with easy access to powerful computing has resulted in a plethora of agricultural models and consequently, model applications. Nonetheless, the scientific credibility of such applications and their relevance to farming practice is still being questioned. Our objective in this paper is to highlight some of the model applications from which benefits for farmers were or could be obtained via changed agricultural practice or policy. Changed on-farm practice due to the direct contribution of modelling, while keenly sought after, may in some cases be less achievable than a contribution via agricultural policies. This paper is intended to give some guidance for future model applications. It is not a comprehensive review of model applications, nor is it intended to discuss modelling in the context of social science or extension policy. Rather, we take snapshots around the globe to 'take stock' and to demonstrate that well-defined financial and environmental benefits can be obtained on-farm from the use of models. We highlight the importance of 'relevance' and hence the importance of true partnerships between all stakeholders (farmer, scientists, advisers) for the successful development and adoption of simulation approaches. Specifically, we address some key points that are essential for successful model applications such as: (1) issues to be addressed must be neither trivial nor obvious; (2) a modelling approach must reduce complexity rather than proliferate choices in order to aid the decision-making process (3) the cropping systems must be sufficiently flexible to allow management interventions based on insights gained from models. The pro and cons of normative approaches (e.g. decision support software that can reach a wide audience quickly but are often poorly contextualized for any individual client) versus model applications within the context of an individual client's situation will also be discussed. We suggest that a tandem approach is necessary whereby the latter is used in the early stages of model application for confidence building amongst client groups. This paper focuses on five specific regions that differ fundamentally in terms of environment and socio-economic structure and hence in their requirements for successful model applications. Specifically, we will give examples from Australia and South America (high climatic variability, large areas, low input, technologically advanced); Africa (high climatic variability, small areas, low input, subsistence agriculture); India (high climatic variability, small areas, medium level inputs, technologically progressing; and Europe (relatively low climatic variability, small areas, high input, technologically advanced). The contrast between Australia and Europe will further demonstrate how successful model applications are strongly influenced by the policy framework within which producers operate. We suggest that this might eventually lead to better adoption of fully integrated systems approaches and result in the development of resilient farming systems that are in tune with current climatic conditions and are adaptable to biophysical and socioeconomic variability and change. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Infusing the use of seasonal climate forecasting into crop management practice in North East Australia using discussion support software

Seasonal climate forecasting offers potential for improving management of crop production risks in the cropping systems of NE Australia. But how is this capability best connected to management practice? Over the past decade, we have pursued participative systems approaches involving simulation-aided discussion with advisers and decision-makers. This has led to the development of discussion support software as a key vehicle for facilitating infusion of forecasting capability into practice. In this paper, we set out the basis of our approach, its implementation and preliminary evaluation. We outline the development of the discussion support software Whopper Cropper, which was designed for, and in close consultation with, public and private advisers. Whopper Cropper consists of a database of simulation output and a graphical user interface to generate analyses of risks associated with crop management options. The charts produced provide conversation pieces for advisers to use with their farmer clients in relation to the significant decisions they face. An example application, detail of the software development process and an initial survey of user needs are presented. We suggest that discussion support software is about moving beyond traditional notions of supply-driven decision support systems. Discussion support software is largely demand-driven and can compliment participatory action research programs by providing cost-effective general delivery of simulation-aided discussions about relevant management actions. The critical role of farm management advisers and dialogue among key players is highlighted. We argue that the discussion support concept, as exemplified by the software tool Whopper Cropper and the group processes surrounding it, provides an effective means to infuse innovations, like seasonal climate forecasting, into farming practice. Crown Copyright (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Future contributions of crop modelling - from heuristics and supporting decision making to understanding genetic regulation and aiding crop improvement

Crop modelling has evolved over the last 30 or so years in concert with advances in crop physiology, crop ecology and computing technology. Having reached a respectable degree of acceptance, it is appropriate to review briefly the course of developments in crop modelling and to project what might be major contributions of crop modelling in the future. Two major opportunities are envisioned for increased modelling activity in the future. One opportunity is in a continuing central, heuristic role to support scientific investigation, to facilitate decision making by crop managers, and to aid in education. Heuristic activities will also extend to the broader system-level issues of environmental and ecological aspects of crop production. The second opportunity is projected as a prime contributor in understanding and advancing the genetic regulation of plant performance and plant improvement. Physiological dissection and modelling of traits provides an avenue by which crop modelling could contribute to enhancing integration of molecular genetic technologies in crop improvement. Crown Copyright (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Radiation use efficiency increases when the diffuse component of incident radiation is enhanced under shade

Theoretical analyses have shown the radiation use efficiency of maize, soybean, and peanut to increase with a decrease in the level of incident radiation and an increase in the proportion of diffuse radiation. This study compared the growth and radiation use efficiency of Panicum maximum cv. Petrie (green panic) and Bothriochloa insculpta cv. Bisset (creeping bluegrass) beneath shading treatments (birdguard and solarweave shadecloths) with that in full sunlight. A level of incident radiation reduced by 25% under birdguard shadecloth decreased final yield and final leaf area index, but increased canopy leaf nitrogen concentration and radiation use efficiency (19-14%) (compared with the full sun treatment). A similar level of reduced incident radiation under solarweave shadecloth (which provided an increased proportion of diffuse radiation), increased final yield and radiation use efficiency (46-50%). An understanding of the effects of composition of incident radiation on radiation use efficiency of tropical grasses enables more accurate estimation of potential pasture growth in shaded environments. It also has impact upon crop production in glasshouses and greenhouses.

Transformation of Lotus japonicus using the herbicide resistance bar gene as a selectable marker

Transgenic plants of the model legume Lotus japonicus were regenerated by hypocotyl transformation using a bar gene as a selectable marker. The bar encodes for Phosphinothricin Acetyl Transferase that detoxifies phosphinothricin (PPT), the active ingredient of herbicides such as Ignite (AgrEvo) and Basta (Hoechst). Transgenic L. japonicus plants resistant to PPT were positive upon PCR by bar gene-specific primers. In 5 out of 7 independent lines tested, PPT resistance segregated as a single dominant allele indicating a single T-DNA insertion into the plant genome. All regenerated plants were fertile and void of visible somaclonal abnormalities contrary to 14% infertility when antibiotic selectable markers were used. The lack of somaclonal variation, ease of PPT application and low cost of PPT makes this protocol an attractive alternative for the regeneration of transgenic L. japonicus. The production of PPT herbicide-resistant L. japonicus plants may have significant commercial applications in crop production.

Diversification economies and specialisation efficiencies in a mixed food and coffee smallholder farming system in Papua New Guinea

Smallholder farming systems in Papua New Guinea are characterised by an integrated set of cash cropping and subsistence food cropping activities. In the Highlands provinces, the subsistence food crop sub-system is dominated by sweet potato production. Coffee dominates the cash cropping sub-system, but a limited number of food crops are also grown for cash sale. The dynamics between sub-systems can influence the scope for complementarity between, and technical efficiency of, their operations, especially in light of the seasonality of demand for household labour and management inputs within the farming system. A crucial element of these dynamic processes is diversification into commercial agricultural production, which can influence factor productivity and the efficiency of crop production where smallholders maintain a strong production base in subsistence foods. In this study we use survey data from households engaged in coffee and food crop production in the Benabena district of Eastern Highlands Province to derive technical efficiency indices for each household over two years. A stochastic input distance function approach is used to establish whether diversification economies exist and whether specialisation in coffee, subsistence food or cash food production significantly influences technical efficiency on the sampled smallholdings. Diversification economics are weakly evident between subsistence food production and both coffee and cash food production, but diseconomies of diversification are discerned between coffee and cash food production. A number of factors are tested for their effects on technical efficiency. Significant technical efficiency gains are made from diversification among broad cropping enterprises.

Sugarcane water use from shallow water tables: implications for improving irrigation water use efficiency

The resource potential of shallow water tables for cropping systems has been investigated using the Australian sugar industry as a case study. Literature concerning shallow water table contributions to sugarcane crops has been summarised, and an assessment of required irrigation for water tables to depths of 2 m investigated using the SWIMv2.1 soil water balance model for three different soils. The study was undertaken because water availability is a major limitation for sugarcane and other crop production systems in Australia and knowledge on how best to incorporate upflow from water tables in irrigation scheduling is limited. Our results showed that for the three soils studied (representing a range of permeabilities as defined by near-saturated hydraulic conductivities), no irrigation would be required for static water tables within 1 m of the soil surface. Irrigation requirements when static water tables exceeded 1 m depth were dependent on the soil type and rooting characteristics (root depth and density). Our results also show that the near-saturated hydraulic conductivities are a better indicator of the ability of water tables below 1 m to supply sufficient upflow as opposed to soil textural classifications. We conclude that there is potential for reductions in irrigation and hence improvements in irrigation water use efficiency in areas where shallow water tables are a low salinity risk: either fresh, or the local hydrology results in net recharge. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Piggery pond sludge as a nitrogen source for crops - 2. Assay of wet and stockpiled piggery pond sludge by successive cereal crops or direct measurement of soil available N

The appropriate use of wastes is a significant issue for the pig industry due to increasing pressure from regulatory authorities to protect the environment from pollution. Nitrogen contained in piggery pond sludge ( PPS) is a potential source of supplementary nutrient for crop production. Nitrogen contribution following the application of PPS to soil was obtained from 2 field experiments on the Darling Downs in southern Queensland on contrasting soil types, a cracking clay ( Vertosol) and a hardsetting sandy loam (Sodosol), and related to potentially mineralisable N from laboratory incubations conducted under controlled conditions and NO3- accumulation in the field. Piggery pond sludge was applied as-collected ( wet PPS) and following stockpiling to dry ( stockpiled PPS). Soil NO3- levels increased with increased application rates of wet and stockpiled PPS. Supplementary N supply from PPS estimated by fertiliser equivalence was generally unsatisfactory due to poor precision with this method, and also due to a high level of NO3- in the clay soil before the first assay crop. Also low recoveries of N by subsequent sorghum ( Sorghum bicolor) and wheat ( Triticum aestivum) assay crops at the 2 sites due to low in-crop rainfall in 1999 resulted in low apparent N availability. Over all, 29% ( range 12 - 47%) of total N from the wet PPS and 19% ( range 0 - 50%) from the stockpiled PPS were estimated to be plant-available N during the assay period. The high concentration of NO3- for the wet PPS application on sandy soil after the first assay crop ( 1998 barley, Hordeum vulgare) suggests that leaching of NO3- could be of concern when high rates of wet PPS are applied before infrequent periods of high precipitation, due primarily to the mineral N contained in wet PPS. Low yields, grain protein concentrations, and crop N uptake of the sorghum crop following the barley crop grown on the clay soil demonstrated a low residual value of N applied in PPS. NO3- in the sandy soil before sowing accounted for 79% of the variation in plant N uptake and was a better index than anaerobically mineralisable N ( 19% of variation explained). In clay soil, better prediction of crop N uptake was obtained when both anaerobically mineralisable N (39% of variation explained) and soil pro. le NO3- were used in combination (R-2 = 0.49).

Wild plant seed storage at Neolithic East, Turke

Full analysis of eight seed samples collected in the 1960's excavations at Neolithic Catalhoyuk East, Turkey, is presented. Detailed investigation of the composition and context of the samples suggests that the Neolithic population collected, processed and stored seeds from Capsella sp. and Descurainia sp. (wild crucifers) for food use. In addition seeds of Vicia/Lathyrus sp. (wild vetch), Helianthemum spp. and Taeniatherum caput-medusae mixed with Eremopyrum type (grasses) were also found, some of which may have been used for food or other purposes. The analysis demonstrates that wild seed exploitation was a regular part of subsistence practice alongside the economic staple of crop production, and again demonstrates how diverse plant use practices were at the site.

A review of the use of the basic cation saturation ratio and the "ideal" soil

The use of 'balanced' Ca, Mg, and K ratios, as prescribed by the basic cation saturation ratio (BCSR) concept, is still used by some private soil-testing laboratories for the interpretation of soil analytical data. This review aims to examine the suitability of the BCSR concept as a method for the interpretation of soil analytical data. According to the BCSR concept, maximum plant growth will be achieved only when the soil’s exchangeable Ca, Mg, and K concentrations are approximately 65 % Ca, 10 % Mg, and 5 % K (termed the ‘ideal soil’). This ‘ideal soil’ was originally proposed by Firman Bear and co-workers in New Jersey (USA) during the 1940s as a method of reducing luxury K uptake by alfalfa (Medicago sativa L.). At about the same time, William Albrecht, working in Missouri (USA), concluded through his own investigations that plants require a soil with a high Ca saturation for optimal growth. Whilst it now appears that several of Albrecht’s experiments were fundamentally flawed, the BCSR (‘balanced soil’) concept has been widely promoted, suggesting that the prescribed cationic ratios provide optimum chemical, physical, and biological soil properties. Our examination of data from numerous studies (particularly those of Albrecht and Bear, themselves) would suggest that, within the ranges commonly found in soils, the chemical, physical, and biological fertility of a soil is generally not influenced by the ratios of Ca, Mg, and K. The data do not support the claims of the BCSR, and continued promotion of the BCSR will result in the inefficient use of resources in agriculture and horticulture.