Geographic parthenogenesis in the Australian arid zone: I. A climatic analysis of the Heteronotia binoei complex (Gekkonidae)

Patterns of geographic parthenogenesis can provide insight into the ecological implications of the transition from sexual to parthenogenetic reproduction. We analysed quantitatively the environmental niches occupied by sexual and parthenogenetic geckos of the Heteronotia binoei complex in the Australian and zone. This complex consists of two independently derived maternal lineages of hybrid parthenogens, which, in turn, include two different triploid races that resulted from reciprocal backcrossing with the parental sexual taxa. The sexual progenitors are still extant and occupy very distinct environmental niches. The triploid parthenogenetic races are biased in their environmental niche towards those of the sexual races for which their genomes are biased and this dosage effect is apparent in both maternal lineages. Thus triploidy may have benefited the parthenogens through partial recovery of the parental niches. Although the parthenogens have a broader geographic distribution than their sexual progenitors, their environmental niche is narrower and biased towards one of the sexual races. In keeping with general patterns of geographic parthenogenesis. parthenogenetic H. binoei occupy a harsher environment than the sexual forms. occurring in regions of persistently low rainfall. Bioclimatic modelling suggests patterns of rainfall are important in limiting the distribution of sexual and parthenogenetic taxa. and extrapolation from the current bioclimatic profiles indicates potential for further eastward range expansion by the parthenogens.

Inflation expectations, interest rates and arbitrary income transfers

Unexpected inflation, disinflation or deflation cause arbitrary income transfers between an economy's borrowers and lenders. This redistribution results from distorted real interest rates that are too high when price level changes are over-predicted and too low when they are under-predicted. This article shows that in Australia's case, inflation expectations were mostly biased upwards throughout the 1990s, according to the Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research series and to a new derived series based on bond yields, implying that real interest rates were too high over this time. In turn, this caused substantial arbitrary income transfers from debtors to creditors, estimated to have averaged up to 3 per cent of gross domestic product over the period.

Leaders and their treatment of subgroups: implications for evaluations of the leader and the superordinate group

This experiment examined members' evaluations of a group leader and the group in contexts where a superordinate group comprised two subgroups and the group leader was aligned with one or other subgroup. The design varied group leader (ingroup, outgroup) and leader behavior (ingroup favoring, outgroup favoring) as well as the broader comparative context (intragroup, intergroup). Across a number of measures, results indicated a consistent Group Leader x Leader Behavior interaction that was independent of comparative context. Although group members were most satisfied with an ingroup leader who favored the ingroup, ingroup leaders were perceived positively irrespective of their behavior Outgroup leaders who unexpectedly favored the other subgroup were also perceived positively. However, outgroup leaders who favored their own subgroup were perceived as less fair and as more biased than other leaders. They also engendered less identification with the superordinate group and a less unified perception of the group. Results demonstrate the importance of social identity concerns to leadership in nested group contexts and emphasize the fact that perceptions of leader fairness and concern for the common group mediate responses to the superordinate category. Copyright (C) 2003 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

Reflections on the statistical analysis of personality and norms in war, peace, and prejudice: Are deviant minorities the problem?

The compelling quality of the Global Change simulation study (Altemeyer, 2003), in which high RWA (right-wing authoritarianism)/high SDO (social dominance orientation) individuals produced poor outcomes for the planet, rests on the inference that the link between high RWA/SDO scores and disaster in the simulation can be generalized to real environmental and social situations. However, we argue that studies of the Person × Situation interaction are biased to overestimate the role of the individual variability. When variables are operationalized, strongly normative items are excluded because they are skewed and kurtotic. This occurs both in the measurement of predictor constructs, such as RWA, and in the outcome constructs, such as prejudice and war. Analyses of normal linear statistics highlight personality variables such as RWA, which produce variance, and overlook the role of norms, which produce invariance. Where both normative and personality forces are operating, as in intergroup contexts, the linear analysis generates statistics for the sample that disproportionately reflect the behavior of the deviant, antinormative minority and direct attention away from the baseline, normative position. The implications of these findings for the link between high RWA and disaster are discussed.

Biology and phenology of the eriophyid mite, Floracarus perrepae, on its native host in Australia, Old World climbing fern, Lygodium microphyllum

The biology and phenology of the eriophyid mite, Floracarus perrepae Knihinicki and Boczek,a potential biological control agent of Lygodium microphyllum (Cav.) R. Br., was studied in its native range - Queensland, Australia. F. perrepae forms leaf roll galls oil tile subpinnae of L. microphyllum. It has a simple biology, with females and males produced throughout the year. Tile Population was female biased at 10.5 to 1. The immature development time was 8.9 ± 0.1 and 7.0 ± 0.1 days; adult longevity was 30.6 ± 1.6 and 19.4 ± 1.2 days and mean fecundity per female was 54.5 ± 3.2 and 38.5 ± 1.6 eggs at 21 and 26 ° C, all respectively. Field studies showed that tile mite was active year round, with populations peaking when temperatures were cool and soil moisture levels were highest. Two species of predatory mites, Tarsonemus sp. and a species of Tydeidae, along with the pathogen Hirsutella thompsonii, had significant effects oil all life stages of F. perrepae. Despite high levels of predators and the pathogen, F. perrepae caused consistent damage to L. microphyllum at all the field sites over the entire 2 years of the study.

The effects of habitat fragmentation due to forestry plantation establishment on the demography and genetic variation of a marsupial carnivore, Antechinus agilis

We conducted a demographic and genetic study to investigate the effects of fragmentation due to the establishment of an exotic softwood plantation on populations of a small marsupial carnivore, the agile antechinus (Antechinus agilis), and the factors influencing the persistence of those populations in the fragmented habitat. The first aspect of the study was a descriptive analysis of patch occupancy and population size, in which we found a patch occupancy rate of 70% among 23 sites in the fragmented habitat compared to 100% among 48 sites with the same habitat characteristics in unfragmented habitat. Mark-recapture analyses yielded most-likely population size estimates of between 3 and 85 among the 16 occupied patches in the fragmented habitat. Hierarchical partitioning and model selection were used to identify geographic and habitat-related characteristics that influence patch occupancy and population size. Patch occupancy was primarily influenced by geographic isolation and habitat quality (vegetation basal area). The variance in population size among occupied sites was influenced primarily by forest type (dominant Eucalyptus species) and, to a lesser extent, by patch area and topographic context (gully sites had larger populations). A comparison of the sex ratios between the samples from the two habitat contexts revealed a significant deficiency of males in the fragmented habitat. We hypothesise that this is due to male-biased dispersal in an environment with increased dispersal-associated mortality. The population size and sex ratio data were incorporated into a simulation study to estimate the proportion of genetic diversity that would have been lost over the known timescale since fragmentation if the patch populations had been totally isolated. The observed difference in genetic diversity (gene diversity and allelic richness at microsatellite and mitochondrial markers) between 16 fragmented and 12 unfragmented sites was extremely low and inconsistent with the isolation of the patch populations. Our results show that although the remnant habitat patches comprise approximately 2% of the study area, they can support non-isolated populations. However, the distribution of agile antechinus populations in the fragmented system is dependent on habitat quality and patch connectivity. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of marine reserve protection on the mud crap Scylla serrata in a sex-biased fishery in subtropical Australia

The impact of sex-biased fishing and marine reserve protection on the mud crab Scylla serrata was examined by comparing the catch rates (catch-per-unit-effort, CPUE), mean size, sex ratios and movement of crabs in 2 coastal marine reserves (1.9 and 5.7 km(2)) and 4 fished non-reserve sites in subtropical Australia. Five years after closure, both marine reserves supported higher catch rates and a larger mean size of S. serrata than non-reserve sites. Males dominated catches of S. serrata in both marine reserves, where CPUE was at least twice as high within the reserves compared to non-reserve sites. Male crabs were also 10% larger in the reserves compared to adjacent fished areas, and of the total male catch, over 70% were equal to or greater than legal size compared to less than 50% outside the reserves. The sex ratio of S. serrata was skewed towards females in all nonreserve sites, which was most likely a result of the ban on taking female S. serrata in Moreton Bay. As only male crabs of >= 15 cm CW made up the S. serrata fishery in Moreton Bay, sex ratios of mature male and female crabs were examined, revealing a strong skew (2:1) towards mature males in both marine reserves. Of the 472 S. serrata captured in this study, 338 were tagged in the reserves in order to document movement of the crabs between the reserve and non-reserve sites. Of the 37 recaptured crabs, 73% were recorded inside the reserves, with some spillover (i.e. cross-boundary movement) of crabs recorded in fished areas. This study demonstrates the effectiveness of small (< 6 km(2)) marine reserves for sex-biased exploited fisheries species.

Cross-cultural perceptions in the leadership process: Theoretical perspective on the influence of culture on self-concepts and manager worker attributions

This article examines the influence of culture on the way managers and workers perceive causes of success and failure in organizational tasks. The author argues that selfserving and actor-observer biases, as well as other attribution errors, will be moderated by culture. Specifically, managers and workers with a sociocentric self-concept from high-context cultures may be biased toward external attributions, while managers from low-context cultures with an idiocentric self-concept have a tendency to make more internal attributions. These variations in attributions have consequences that affect both managers and workers. Theoretical propositions and implications for international management practices are discussed. © 2005 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

CTL recognition of a bulged viral peptide involves biased TCR selection

MHC class I molecules generally present peptides of 8-10 aa long, forming an extended coil in the HLA cleft. Although longer peptides can also bind to class I molecules, they tend to bulge from the cleft and it is not known whether the TCR repertoire has sufficient plasticity to recognize these determinants during the antiviral CTL response. In this study, we show that unrelated individuals infected with EBV generate a significant CTL response directed toward an HLA-B*3501-restricted, 11-mer epitope from the BZLF1 Ag. The 11-mer determinant adopts a highly bulged conformation with seven of the peptide side chains being solvent-exposed and available for TCR interaction. Such a complex potentially creates a structural challenge for TCR corecognition of both HLA-B*3501 and the peptide Ag. Surprisingly, unrelated B*3501 donors recognizing the 11-mer use identical or closely related alpha beta TCR sequences that share particular CDR3 motifs. Within the small number of dominant CTL clonotypes observed, each has discrete fine specificity for the exposed-side chain residues of the peptide. The data show that bulged viral peptides are indeed immunogenic but suggest that the highly constrained TCR repertoire reflects a limit to TCR diversity when responding to some unusual MHC peptide ligands.

On the estimation and comparison of short-rate models using the generalised method of moments

Subsequent to the influential paper of [Chan, K.C., Karolyi, G.A., Longstaff, F.A., Sanders, A.B., 1992. An empirical comparison of alternative models of the short-term interest rate. Journal of Finance 47, 1209-1227], the generalised method of moments (GMM) has been a popular technique for estimation and inference relating to continuous-time models of the short-term interest rate. GMM has been widely employed to estimate model parameters and to assess the goodness-of-fit of competing short-rate specifications. The current paper conducts a series of simulation experiments to document the bias and precision of GMM estimates of short-rate parameters, as well as the size and power of [Hansen, L.P., 1982. Large sample properties of generalised method of moments estimators. Econometrica 50, 1029-1054], J-test of over-identifying restrictions. While the J-test appears to have appropriate size and good power in sample sizes commonly encountered in the short-rate literature, GMM estimates of the speed of mean reversion are shown to be severely biased. Consequently, it is dangerous to draw strong conclusions about the strength of mean reversion using GMM. In contrast, the parameter capturing the levels effect, which is important in differentiating between competing short-rate specifications, is estimated with little bias. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Afterglows, redshifts, and properties of swift gammaray bursts

We present optical, near-IR, and radio follow-up of 16 Swift bursts, including our discovery of nine afterglows and a redshift determination for three. These observations, supplemented by data from the literature, provide an afterglow recovery rate of 52% in the optical/near-IR, much higher than in previous missions (BeppoSAX, HETE-2, INTEGRAL, and IPN). The optical/near-IR afterglows of Swift events are on average 1.8 mag fainter at t = 12 hr than those of previous missions. The X-ray afterglows are similarly fainter than those of pre-Swift bursts. In the radio the limiting factor is the VLA threshold, and the detection rate for Swift bursts is similar to that for past missions. The redshift distribution of pre-Swift bursts peaked at z similar to 1, whereas the six Swift bursts with measured redshifts are distributed evenly between 0.7 and 3.2. From these results we conclude that ( 1) the pre-Swift distributions were biased in favor of bright events and low-redshift events, ( 2) the higher sensitivity and accurate positions of Swift result in a better representation of the true burst redshift and brightness distributions ( which are higher and dimmer, respectively), and (3) similar to 10% of the bursts are optically dark, as a result of a high redshift and/or dust extinction. We remark that the apparent lack of low-redshift, low-luminosity Swift bursts and the lower event rate than prelaunch estimates ( 90 vs. 150 per year) are the result of a threshold that is similar to that of BATSE. In view of these inferences, afterglow observers may find it advisable to make significant changes in follow-up strategies of Swift events. The faintness of the afterglows means that large telescopes should be employed as soon as the burst is localized. Sensitive observations in RIz and near-IR bands will be needed to discriminate between a typical z similar to 2 burst with modest extinction and a high-redshift event. Radio observations will be profitable for a small fraction (similar to 10%) of events. Finally, we suggest that a search for bright host galaxies in untriggered BAT localizations may increase the chance of finding nearby low-luminosity GRBs.

Effect on trend estimates of the difference between survey respondents and non-respondents: Results from 27 populations in the WHO MONIICA Project

Introduction: In the World Health Organization (WHO) MONICA (multinational MONItoring of trends and determinants in CArdiovascular disease) Project considerable effort was made to obtain basic data on non-respondents to community based surveys of cardiovascular risk factors. The first purpose of this paper is to examine differences in socio-economic and health profiles among respondents and non-respondents. The second purpose is to investigate the effect of non-response on estimates of trends. Methods:Socio-economic and health profile between respondents and non-respondents in the WHO MONICA Project final survey were compared. The potential effect of non-response on the trend estimates between the initial survey and final survey approximately ten years later was investigated using both MONICA data and hypothetical data. Results: In most of the populations, non-respondents were more likely to be single, less well educated, and had poorer lifestyles and health profiles than respondents. As an example of the consequences, temporal trends in prevalence of daily smokers are shown to be overestimated in most populations if they were based only on data from respondents. Conclusions: The socio-economic and health profiles of respondents and non-respondents differed fairly consistently across 27 populations. Hence, the estimators of population trends based on respondent data are likely to be biased. Declining response rates therefore pose a threat to the accuracy of estimates of risk factor trends in many countries.

Prediction of subcellular localization using sequence-biased recurrent networks

Motivation: Targeting peptides direct nascent proteins to their specific subcellular compartment. Knowledge of targeting signals enables informed drug design and reliable annotation of gene products. However, due to the low similarity of such sequences and the dynamical nature of the sorting process, the computational prediction of subcellular localization of proteins is challenging. Results: We contrast the use of feed forward models as employed by the popular TargetP/SignalP predictors with a sequence-biased recurrent network model. The models are evaluated in terms of performance at the residue level and at the sequence level, and demonstrate that recurrent networks improve the overall prediction performance. Compared to the original results reported for TargetP, an ensemble of the tested models increases the accuracy by 6 and 5% on non-plant and plant data, respectively.

Lifetime prevalence estimates of major depression: An indirect estimation method and a quantification of recall bias

The measurement of lifetime prevalence of depression in cross-sectional surveys is biased by recall problems. We estimated it indirectly for two countries using modelling, and quantified the underestimation in the empirical estimate for one. A microsimulation model was used to generate population-based epidemiological measures of depression. We fitted the model to 1-and 12-month prevalence data from the Netherlands Mental Health Survey and Incidence Study (NEMESIS) and the Australian Adult Mental Health and Wellbeing Survey. The lowest proportion of cases ever having an episode in their life is 30% of men and 40% of women, for both countries. This corresponds to a lifetime prevalence of 20 and 30%, respectively, in a cross-sectional setting (aged 15-65). The NEMESIS data were 38% lower than these estimates. We conclude that modelling enabled us to estimate lifetime prevalence of depression indirectly. This method is useful in the absence of direct measurement, but also showed that direct estimates are underestimated by recall bias and by the cross-sectional setting.

Meaning selection and the subcortex: Evidence of reduced lexical ambiguity repetition effects following subcortical lesions

Recent research indicates that individuals with nonthalamic subcortical (NS) lesions call experience difficulties processing lexical ambiguities in a variety of contexts. This study examined how prior processing of a lexical ambiguity influences subsequent meaning activation in 10 individuals with NS lesions and 10 matched healthy controls. Subjects made speeded lexical decisions oil related or unrelated targets following homophone primes. Homophones were repealed with different targets biasing the same or different meanings oil the second presentation. The effects of prime-target relatedness, interstimulus interval (200 or 1250 ms), and same vs different meaning repetition were examined Both the patient and control groups showed printing when the same homophone meaning was biased oil repetition. When a different meaning was biased on the second presentation. no priming was evident in the controls, while facilitation remained present for the NS group, consistent with aberrant meaning selection and deactivation processes. These findings are discussed in terms of age and task-related repetition effects and current conceptions of frontal-subcortical involvement in cognition.