Quantification of geological uncertainty and risk using stochastic simulation and applications in the coal mining industry

Stochastic simulation is a recognised tool for quantifying the spatial distribution of geological uncertainty and risk in earth science and engineering. Metals mining is an area where simulation technologies are extensively used; however, applications in the coal mining industry have been limited. This is particularly due to the lack of a systematic demonstration illustrating the capabilities these techniques have in problem solving in coal mining. This paper presents two broad and technically distinct areas of applications in coal mining. The first deals with the use of simulation in the quantification of uncertainty in coal seam attributes and risk assessment to assist coal resource classification, and drillhole spacing optimisation to meet pre-specified risk levels at a required confidence. The second application presents the use of stochastic simulation in the quantification of fault risk, an area of particular interest to underground coal mining, and documents the performance of the approach. The examples presented demonstrate the advantages and positive contribution stochastic simulation approaches bring to the coal mining industry

The evolution of the Global Burden of Disease framework for disease, injury and risk factor quantification: Developing the evidence base for national, regional and global public health action

Reliable, comparable information about the main causes of disease and injury in populations, and how these are changing, is a critical input for debates about priorities in the health sector. Traditional sources of information about the descriptive epidemiology of diseases, injuries and risk factors are generally incomplete, fragmented and of uncertain reliability and comparability. Lack of a standardized measurement framework to permit comparisons across diseases and injuries, as well as risk factors, and failure to systematically evaluate data quality have impeded comparative analyses of the true public health importance of various conditions and risk factors. As a consequence the impact of major conditions and hazards on population health has been poorly appreciated, often leading to a lack of public health investment. Global disease and risk factor quantification improved dramatically in the early 1990s with the completion of the first Global Burden of Disease Study. For the first time, the comparative importance of over 100 diseases and injuries, and ten major risk factors, for global and regional health status could be assessed using a common metric (Disability-Adjusted Life Years) which simultaneously accounted for both premature mortality and the prevalence, duration and severity of the non-fatal consequences of disease and injury. As a consequence, mental health conditions and injuries, for which non-fatal outcomes are of particular significance, were identified as being among the leading causes of disease/injury burden worldwide, with clear implications for policy, particularly prevention. A major achievement of the Study was the complete global descriptive epidemiology, including incidence, prevalence and mortality, by age, sex and Region, of over 100 diseases and injuries. National applications, further methodological research and an increase in data availability have led to improved national, regional and global estimates for 2000, but substantial uncertainty around the disease burden caused by major conditions, including, HIV, remains. The rapid implementation of cost-effective data collection systems in developing countries is a key priority if global public policy to promote health is to be more effectively informed.

From Midden to Sieve: The Impact of Differential Recovery and Quantification Techniques on Interpretations of Shellfish Remains in Australian Coastal Archaeology

Experimental mechanical sieving methods are applied to samples of shellfish remains from three sites in southeast Queensland, Seven Mile Creek Mound, Sandstone Point and One-Tree, to test the efficacy of various recovery and quantification procedures commonly applied to shellfish assemblages in Australia. There has been considerable debate regarding the most appropriate sieve sizes and quantification methods that should be applied in the recovery of vertebrate faunal remains. Few studies, however, have addressed the impact of recovery and quantification methods on the interpretation of invertebrates, specifically shellfish remains. In this study, five shellfish taxa representing four bivalves (Anadara trapezia, Trichomya hirsutus, Saccostrea glomerata, Donax deltoides) and one gastropod (Pyrazus ebeninus) common in eastern Australian midden assemblages are sieved through 10mm, 6.3mm and 3.15mm mesh. Results are quantified using MNI, NISP and weight. Analyses indicate that different structural properties and pre- and postdepositional factors affect recovery rates. Fragile taxa (T. hirsutus) or those with foliated structure (S. glomerata) tend to be overrepresented by NISP measures in smaller sieve fractions, while more robust taxa (A. trapezia and P. ebeninus) tend to be overrepresented by weight measures. Results demonstrate that for all quantification methods tested a 3mm sieve should be used on all sites to allow for regional comparability and to effectively collect all available information about the shellfish remains.

Macropore sheath: quantification of plant root and soil macropore association

Plants require roots to supply water, nutrients and oxygen for growth. The spatial distribution of roots in relation to the macropore structure of the soil in which they are growing influences how effective they are at accessing these resources. A method for quantifying root-macropore associations from horizontal soil sections is illustrated using two black vertisols from the Darling Downs, Queensland, Australia. Two-dimensional digital images were obtained of the macropore structure and root distribution for an area 55 x 55 mm at a resolution of 64 mu m. The spatial distribution of roots was quantified over a range of distances using the K-function. In all specimens, roots were shown to be clustered at short distances (1-10 mm) becoming more random at longer distances. Root location in relation to macropores was estimated using the function describing the distance of each root to the nearest macropore. From this function, a summary variable, termed the macropore sheath, was defined. The macropore sheath is the distance from macropores within which 80% of roots are located. Measured root locations were compared to random simulations of root distribution to establish if there was a preferential association between roots and macropores. More roots were found in and around macropores than expected at random.

A protocol for the fluorometric quantification of mGFP5-ER and sGFP(S65T) in transgenic plants

The Green Fluorescent Protein (GFP) from Aequorea victor-in has begun to be used as a reporter protein in plants. It is particularly useful as GFP fluorescence can be detected in a non-destructive manner, whereas detection of enzyme-based reporters often requires destruction of the plant tissue. The use of GFP as a reporter enables transgenic plant tissues to be screened in vivo at any growth stage. Quantification of GFP in transgenic plant extracts will increase the utility of GFP as a reporter protein. We report herein the quantification of a mGFP5-ER Variant in tobacco leaf extracts by UV excitation and a sGFP(S65T) variant in sugarcane leaf and callus extracts by blue light excitation using the BioRad VersaFluor(TM) Fluorometer System or the Labsystems Fluoroskan Ascent FL equipped with a narrow band emission filter (510 +/- 5 nm). The GFP concentration in transgenic plant extracts was determined from a GFP-standard series prepared in untransformed plant extract with concentrations ranging from 0.1 to 4 mu g/ml of purified rGFP. Levels of sgfp(S65T) expression, driven by the maize ubiquitin promoter, in sugarcane calli and leaves ranged up to 0.525 mu g and 2.11 mu g sGFP(S65T) per mg of extractable protein respectively. In tobacco leaves the expression of mgfPS-ER, driven by the cauliflower mosaic virus (CaMV) 35S promoter, ranged up to 7.05 mu g mGFP5-ER per mg extractable protein.

Quantification of free mycophenolic acid by high-performance liquid chromatography-atmospheric pressure chemical ionisation tandem mass spectrometry

To facilitate the investigation of free mycophenolic acid concentrations we developed a high-performance liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry method using indomethacin as an internal standard. Free drug was isolated from plasma samples (500 mul) using ultrafiltration, The analytes were extracted from the ultrafiltrate (200 mul) using C-18 solid-phase extraction. Detection was by selected reactant monitoring of mycophenolic acid (m/z 318.9-->190.9) and the internal standard (m/z 356.0-->297.1) with an atmospheric pressure chemical ionisation interface. The total chromatographic analysis time was 12 min. The method was found to be linear over the range investigated, 2.5-200 mug/l (r>0.990, n=6). The relative recovery of the method for the control samples studied (7.5, 40.0 and 150 mug/l) ranged from 95 to 104%. The imprecision of the method, expressed in terms of intra- and inter-day coefficients of variation, was

3D reconstruction and quantification of macropores using X-ray computed tomography and image analysis

Axial X-ray Computed tomography (CT) scanning provides a convenient means of recording the three-dimensional form of soil structure. The technique has been used for nearly two decades, but initial development has concentrated on qualitative description of images. More recently, increasing effort has been put into quantifying the geometry and topology of macropores likely to contribute to preferential now in soils. Here we describe a novel technique for tracing connected macropores in the CT scans. After object extraction, three-dimensional mathematical morphological filters are applied to quantify the reconstructed structure. These filters consist of sequences of so-called erosions and/or dilations of a 32-face structuring element to describe object distances and volumes of influence. The tracing and quantification methodologies were tested on a set of undisturbed soil cores collected in a Swiss pre-alpine meadow, where a new earthworm species (Aporrectodea nocturna) was accidentally introduced. Given the reduced number of samples analysed in this study, the results presented only illustrate the potential of the method to reconstruct and quantify macropores. Our results suggest that the introduction of the new species induced very limited chance to the soil structured for example, no difference in total macropore length or mean diameter was observed. However. in the zone colonised by, the new species. individual macropores tended to have a longer average length. be more vertical and be further apart at some depth. Overall, the approach proved well suited to the analysis of the three-dimensional architecture of macropores. It provides a framework for the analysis of complex structures, which are less satisfactorily observed and described using 2D imaging. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Long-term quantification of the release of monomers from dental resin composites and a resin-modified glass ionomer cement

This study quantified the release of monomers from polymerized specimens of four commercially available resin composites and one glass ionomer cement immersed in water:ethanol solutions. Individual standard curves were prepared from five monomers: (1) triethylene glycol dimethacrylate (TEGDMA), (2) 2-hydroxy-ethyl methacrylate (HEMA), (3) urethane dimethacrylate (UDMA), (4) bisphenol A glycidyl dimethacrylate (BISGMA), and (5) bisphenol A. The concentration of the monomers was determined at Days 1, 7, 30, and 90 with the use of electrospray ionization/mass spectrometry. Data were expressed in mean mumol per mm(2) surface area of specimen and analyzed with Scheffe's test (P < 0.05). The following monomers were found in water: monomers (1) and (2) from Delton sealant, monomer (5) from ScotchBond Multipurpose Adhesive and Delton sealant, monomer (3) from Definite and monomer (4) from Fuji II LC, ScotchBond Multipurpose Adhesive, Synergy and Definite. All these monomers increased in concentration over time, with the exception of monomer (1) from Delton sealant. Monomers (3) and (5) were found in extracts of materials despite their absence from the manufacturer's published composition. All monomers were released in significantly higher concentrations in water:ethanol solutions than in water. The greatest release of monomers occurred in the first day. The effect of the measured concentrations of monomers (1-5) on human genes, cells, or tissues needs to be considered with the use of a biological model. (C) 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Production under uncertainty and choice under uncertainty in the emergence of generalized expected utility theory

This paper presents a personal view of the interaction between the analysis of choice under uncertainty and the analysis of production under uncertainty. Interest in the foundations of the theory of choice under uncertainty was stimulated by applications of expected utility theory such as the Sandmo model of production under uncertainty. This interest led to the development of generalized models including rank-dependent expected utility theory. In turn, the development of generalized expected utility models raised the question of whether such models could be used in the analysis of applied problems such as those involving production under uncertainty. Finally, the revival of the state-contingent approach led to the recognition of a fundamental duality between choice problems and production problems.

Indirect certainty equivalents for the firm facing price and production uncertainty

Producer decisionmaking under uncertainty is characterized using indirect objective functions. The characterization is for the class of producers with continuous and nondecreasing preferences over stochastic incomes who face both price and production uncertainty. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.