Three putative types of El Nino revealed by spatial variability in impact on Australian wheat yield

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon significantly impacts rainfall and ensuing crop yields in many parts of the world. In Australia, El Nino events are often associated with severe drought conditions. However, El Nino events differ spatially and temporally in their manifestations and impacts, reducing the relevance of ENSO-based seasonal forecasts. In this analysis, three putative types of El Nino are identified among the 24 occurrences since the beginning of the twentieth century. The three types are based on coherent spatial patterns (footprints) found in the El Nino impact on Australian wheat yield. This bioindicator reveals aligned spatial patterns in rainfall anomalies, indicating linkage to atmospheric drivers. Analysis of the associated ocean-atmosphere dynamics identifies three types of El Nino differing in the timing of onset and location of major ocean temperature and atmospheric pressure anomalies. Potential causal mechanisms associated with these differences in anomaly patterns need to be investigated further using the increasing capabilities of general circulation models. Any improved predictability would be extremely valuable in forecasting effects of individual El Nino events on agricultural systems.

Do predators aggregate in response to pest density in agroecosystems? Assessing within-field spatial patterns

1. The spatial heterogeneity of predator populations is an important component of ecological theories pertaining to predator-prey dynamics. Most studies within agricultural fields show spatial correlation (positive or negative) between mean predator numbers and prey abundance across a whole field over time but generally ignore the within-field spatial dimension. We used explicit spatial mapping to determine if generalist predators aggregated within a soybean field, the size of these aggregations and if predator aggregation was associated with pest aggregation, plant damage and predation rate. 2. The study was conducted at Gatton in the Lockyer Valley, 90 km west of Brisbane, Australia. Intensive sampling grids were used to investigate within-field spatial patterns. The first row of each grid was located in a lucerne field (10 m from interface) and the remaining rows were in an adjacent soybean field. At each point on the grid the abundance of foliage-dwelling and ground-dwelling pests and predators was measured, predation rates [using sentinel Helicoverpa armigera (Hubner) egg cards] and plant damage were estimated. Eight grids were sampled across two summer cropping seasons (2000/01, 2001/02). 3. Predators exhibited strong spatial patterning with regions of high and low abundance and activity within what are considered to be uniform soybean fields. Ground-dwelling and foliage-dwelling predators were often aggregated in patches approximately 40 m across. 4. Lycosidae (wolf spiders) displayed aggregation and were consistently more abundant within the lucerne, with a decreasing trap catch with distance from the lucrene/soybean interface. This trend was consistent between subsequent grids in a single field and between fields. 5. The large amount of spatial variability in within-field arthropod abundance (pests and predators) and activity (egg predation and plant damage) indicates that whole field averages were misleading. This result has serious implications for sampling of arthropod abundance and pest management decision-making based on scouting data. 6. There was a great deal of temporal change in the significant spatial patterns observed within a field at each sampling time point during a single season. Predator and pest aggregations observed in these fields were generally not stable for the entire season. 7. Predator aggregation did not correlate consistently with pest aggregation, plant damage or predation rate. Spatial patterns in predator abundance were not associated consistently with any single parameter measured. The most consistent positive association was between foliage-dwelling predators and pests (significant in four of seven grids). Inferring associations between predators and prey based on an intensive one-off sampling grid is difficult, due to the temporal variability in the abundance of each group. 8. Synthesis and applications. This study demonstrated that generalist predator populations are rarely distributed randomly and field edges and adjacent crops can have an influence on within-field predator abundance. This must be considered when estimating arthropod (pest and predator) abundance from a set of samples taken at random locations within a field.

Assessment of relationships between precipitation and satellite derived vegetation condition in South Australia

The normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) has evolved as a primary tool for monitoring continental-scale vegetation changes and interpreting the impact of short to long-term climatic events on the biosphere. The objective of this research was to assess the nature of relationships between precipitation and vegetation condition, as measured by the satellite-derived NDVI within South Australia. The correlation, timing and magnitude of the NDVI response to precipitation were examined for different vegetation formations within the State (forest, scrubland, shrubland, woodland and grassland). Results from this study indicate that there are strong relationships between precipitation and NDVI both spatially and temporally within South Australia. Differences in the timing of the NDVI response to precipitation were evident among the five vegetation formations. The most significant relationship between rainfall and NDVI was within the forest formation. Negative correlations between NDVI and precipitation events indicated that vegetation green-up is a result of seasonal patterns in precipitation. Spatial patterns in the average NDVI over the study period closely resembled the boundaries of the five classified vegetation formations within South Australia. Spatial variability within the NDVI data set over the study period differed greatly between and within the vegetation formations examined depending on the location within the state. ACRONYMS AVHRR Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer ENVSAEnvironments of South Australia EOS Terra-Earth Observing System EVIEnhanced Vegetation Index MODIS Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer MVC Maximum Value Composite NDVINormalised Difference Vegetation Index NIRNear Infra-Red NOAANational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration SPOT Systeme Pour l’Observation de la Terre. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Green turtle somatic growth dynamics in a spatially disjunct Great Barrier Reef metapopulation

The growth dynamics of green sea turtles resident in four separate foraging grounds of the southern Great Barrier Reef genetic stock were assessed using a nonparametric regression modeling approach. Juveniles recruit to these grounds at the same size, but grow at foraging-ground-dependent rates that result in significant differences in expected size- or age-at-maturity. Mean age-at-maturity was estimated to vary from 25-50 years depending on the ground. This stock comprises mainly the same mtDNA haplotype, so geographic variability might be due to local environmental conditions rather than genetic factors, although the variability was not a function of latitudinal variation in environmental conditions or whether the food stock was seagrass or algae. Temporal variability in growth rates was evident in response to local environmental stochasticity, so geographic variability might be due to local food stock dynamics. Despite such variability, the expected size-specific growth rate function at all grounds displayed a similar nonmonotonic growth pattern with a juvenile growth spurt at 60-70 cm curved carapace length, (CCL) or 15-20 years of age. Sex-specific growth differences were also evident with females tending to grow faster than similar-sized males after the Juvenile growth spurt. It is clear that slow sex-specific growth displaying both spatial and temporal variability and a juvenile growth spurt are distinct growth behaviors of green turtles from this stock.

Regional climate change and harmful algal blooms in the northeast Atlantic

We investigated long-term spatial variability in a number of Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) in the northeast Atlantic and North Sea using data from the Continuous Plankton Recorder. Over the last four decades. some dinoflagellate taxa showed pronounced variation in the south and east of the North Sea, with the most significant increases being restricted to the adjacent waters off Norway. There was also a general decrease along the eastern coast of the United Kingdom. The most prominent feature in the interannual bloom frequencies over the last four decades was the anomalously high values recorded in the late 1980s in the northern and central North Sea areas. The only mesoscale area in the northeast Atlantic to show a significant increase in bloom formation over the last decade was the Norwegian coastal region. The changing spatial patterns of HAB taxa and the frequency of bloom formation are discussed in relation to regional climate change, in particular, changes in temperature, salinity, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Areas highly vulnerable to the effects of regional climate change on HABs are Norwegian coastal waters and the Skagerrak. Other vulnerable areas include Danish coastal waters, and to a lesser extent, the German and Dutch Bight and the northern Irish Sea. Quite apart from eutrophication, our results give a preview of what might happen to certain HAB genera under changing climatic conditions in temperate environments and their responses to variability of climate oscillations Such as the NAO.

Trace metals in Antarctic ecosystems: Results from the Larsemann Hills, East Antarctica

Sediments, mosses and algae, collected from lake catchments of the Larsemann Hills, East Antarctica, were analysed to establish baseline levels of trace metals (Ag, As, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Ni, Sb, Pb, Se, V and Zn), and to quantify the extent of trace metal pollution in the area. Both impacted and non-impacted sites were included in the study. Four different leaching solutions (1 M MgCl2, 1 M CH3COONH4, 1 M NH4NO3, and 0.3 N HCl) were tested on the fine fraction (< 63 mu m) of the sediments to extract the mobile fraction of trace metals derived from human impact and from weathering of basement lithologies. Results of these tests indicate that dilute HCl partly dissolves primary minerals present in the sediment, thus leading to an overestimate of the mobile trace metal fraction. Concentrations of trace metals released using the other 3 procedures indicate negligible levels of anthropogenic contribution to the trace metal budget. Data derived from this study and a thorough characterisation of the site allowed the authors to define natural baseline levels of trace metals in sediments, mosses and algae, and their spatial variability across the area. The results show that, with a few notable exceptions, human activities at the research stations have contributed negligible levels (lower than natural variability) of trace metals to the Larsemann Hills ecosystem. This study further demonstrates that anthropogenic sources of trace metals can be correctly identified and quantified only if natural baselines, their variability, and processes controlling the mobility of trace metals in the ecosystem, have been fully characterised. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spatial and temporal variability in somatic growth of green sea turtles (Chelonia mydas) resident in the Hawaiian Archipelago

The somatic growth dynamics of green turtles ( Chelonia mydas) resident in five separate foraging grounds within the Hawaiian Archipelago were assessed using a robust non-parametric regression modelling approach. The foraging grounds range from coral reef habitats at the north-western end of the archipelago, to coastal habitats around the main islands at the southeastern end of the archipelago. Pelagic juveniles recruit to these neritic foraging grounds from ca. 35 cm SCL or 5 kg ( similar to 6 years of age), but grow at foraging-ground-specific rates, which results in quite different size- and age-specific growth rate functions. Growth rates were estimated for the five populations as change in straight carapace length ( cm SCL year) 1) and, for two of the populations, also as change in body mass ( kg year) 1). Expected growth rates varied from ca. 0 - 2.5 cm SCL year) 1, depending on the foraging-ground population, which is indicative of slow growth and decades to sexual maturity, since expected size of first-time nesters is greater than or equal to 80 cm SCL. The expected size- specific growth rate functions for four populations sampled in the southeastern archipelago displayed a non-monotonic function, with an immature growth spurt at ca. 50 - 53 cm SCL ( similar to 18 - 23 kg) or ca. 13 - 19 years of age. The growth spurt for the Midway atoll population in the northwestern archipelago occurs at a much larger size ( ca. 65 cm SCL or 36 kg), because of slower immature growth rates that might be due to a limited food stock and cooler sea surface temperature. Expected age-at-maturity was estimated to be ca. 35 - 40 years for the four populations sampled at the south-eastern end of the archipelago, but it might well be > 50 years for the Midway population. The Hawaiian stock comprises mainly the same mtDNA haplotype, with no differences in mtDNA stock composition between foraging-ground populations, so that the geographic variability in somatic growth rates within the archipelago is more likely due to local environmental factors rather than genetic factors. Significant temporal variability was also evident, with expected growth rates declining over the last 10 - 20 years, while green turtle abundance within the archipelago has increased significantly since the mid-1970s. This inverse relationship between somatic growth rates and population abundance suggests a density-dependent effect on somatic growth dynamics that has also been reported recently for a Caribbean green turtle stock. The Hawaiian green turtle stock is characterised by slow growth rates displaying significant spatial and temporal variation and an immature growth spurt. This is consistent with similar findings for a Great Barrier Reef green turtle stock that also comprises many foraging-ground populations spanning a wide geographic range.

Spatial and temporal variation in algal-assemblage structure in isolated dryland river waterholes, Cooper Creek and Warrego River, Australia

The scale at which algal biodiversity is partitioned across the landscape, and the biophysical processes and biotic interactions which shape these communities in dryland river refugia was studied on two occasions from 30 sites in two Australian dryland rivers. Despite the waterholes studied having characteristically high levels of abiogenic turbidity, a total of 186 planktonic microalgae, 253 benthic diatom and 62 macroalgal species were recorded. The phytoplankton communities were dominated by flagellated cryptophytes, euglenophytes and chlorophytes, the diatom communities by cosmopolitan taxa known to tolerate wide environmental conditions, and the macroalgal communities by filamentous cyanobacteria. All algal communities showed significant differences between catchments and sampling times, with a suite of between 5 and 12 taxa responsible for similar to 50% of the observed change. In general, algal assemblage patterns were poorly correlated with the measured environmental variables. Phytoplankton and diatom assemblage patterns were weakly correlated with several waterhole geomorphic measures, whereas macroalgal assemblage patterns showed some association with variability in ionic concentration.

Rare earth element and yttrium variability in South East Queensland waterways

We present data for the rare earth elements and yttrium (REY) in the National Research Council of Canada natural river water reference material SLRS-4 and 19 natural river waters from small catchments in South-East Queensland, Australia, by a direct ICP-MS method. The 0.22 mu m filtered river water samples show a large degree of variability in both the REY concentration, e.g., La varies from 13 to 1157 ppt, and shape of the alluvial-sediment-normalised REY patterns with different samples displaying light, middle or heavy rare earth enrichment. In addition, a spatial study was undertaken along the freshwater section of Beerburrum Creek, which demonstrates that similar to 75% of the total REYs in this waterway are removed prior to estuarine mixing without evidence of fractionation.