Quantification of geological uncertainty and risk using stochastic simulation and applications in the coal mining industry

Stochastic simulation is a recognised tool for quantifying the spatial distribution of geological uncertainty and risk in earth science and engineering. Metals mining is an area where simulation technologies are extensively used; however, applications in the coal mining industry have been limited. This is particularly due to the lack of a systematic demonstration illustrating the capabilities these techniques have in problem solving in coal mining. This paper presents two broad and technically distinct areas of applications in coal mining. The first deals with the use of simulation in the quantification of uncertainty in coal seam attributes and risk assessment to assist coal resource classification, and drillhole spacing optimisation to meet pre-specified risk levels at a required confidence. The second application presents the use of stochastic simulation in the quantification of fault risk, an area of particular interest to underground coal mining, and documents the performance of the approach. The examples presented demonstrate the advantages and positive contribution stochastic simulation approaches bring to the coal mining industry

High-Risk Merkel Cell Carcinoma of the Skin Treated With Synchronous Carboplatin/Etoposide and Radiation: A Trans-Tasman Radiation Oncology Group Study-TROG 96:07

Purpose: The effectiveness of synchronous carboplatin, etoposide, and radiation therapy was prospectively assessed in a group of patients with high-risk Merkel cell carcinoma (MCC) of the skin. Patients and Methods: Patients were eligible if they had disease localized to the primary site and nodes, and were required to have at least one of the following high risk features: recurrence after initial therapy, involved nodes, primary tumor size greater than 1 cm, gross residual disease after surgery, or occult primary with nodes. Radiation was delivered to the primary site and nodes to a dose of 50 Gy in 25 fractions over 5 weeks and synchronous carboplatin (area under the curve, 4.5) and intravenous etoposide 80 mg/m(2) days 1 to 3 was given in weeks 1, 4, 7, and 10. The median age of the group was 67 (range, 43-86) years, and there were 39 males and 14 females. Involved nodes (stage II) were present in 33 cases (62%). The sites involved were head and neck (22 patients), occult primary (13 patients), upper limb (eight patients), lower limb (eight patients), and trunk (two patients). Results: Fifty-three patients were entered between 1996 and 2001. The median potential follow-up was 48 months. There were no treatment related deaths. The 3-year overall survival, locoregional control, and distant control were 76%, 75%, and 76%, respectively. Tumor site and the presence of nodes were factors that were predictive for local control and survival. Multivariate analysis indicated that the major factor influencing survival was the presence of nodes; however, this was not a significant factor in locoregional control. Conclusion: High levels of locoregional control and survival have been achieved with the addition of chemotherapy to radiation treatment for high-risk MCC of the skin. The role of chemoradiotherapy for high-risk MCC warrants further investigation. (C) 2003 by American Society of Clinical Oncology.

Renal function and cardiovascular risk markers in a remote Australian Aboriginal community

Background. Australian Aborigines living in remote areas have exceedingly high rates of renal failure together with increased cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. To examine the basis of this association, we studied markers of renal function and cardiovascular (CV) risk in a coastal Aboriginal community in a remote area of the Northern Territory of Australia. End-stage renal disease (ESRD) incidence rates in that community are 15 times the national non-Aboriginal rate and CV mortality rates in the region are increased 5-fold. Methods. A cross-sectional community survey was conducted. Markers of early renal disease examined included urine albumin/creatinine ratio (ACR), serum creatinine concentration and calculated glomerular filtration rate (GFR). CV risk markers included blood pressure as well as measures of glycaemia, diabetes and serum lipids. Results. The study group included 237 people, 58% of the adult population of the community. The crude prevalence of microalbuminuria (urine ACR: 3.4-33.9 g/mol, 30-299 mg/g) was 31% and of overt albuminuria (urine ACR: greater than or equal to34 g/mol, greater than or equal to300 mg/g), 13%. The prevalence of overt albuminuria increased with age, but the prevalence of microalbuminuria was greatest in the 45-54 year age group. Microalbuminuria was associated with increasing body mass index, whereas overt albuminuria was associated with increasing glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) and systolic blood pressure and a history of diabetes. The prevalence of elevated serum creatinine concentration (greater than or equal to120 mumol/l) was 10%. GFR (calculated using the MDRD equation) was <60 ml/min/1.73m(2) in 12% and 60-79 ml/min/1.73 m(2) in a further 36% of the study population. Although many people with albuminuria had well preserved GFRs, mean GFR was lower in people with higher levels of albuminuria. Conclusions. The high prevalence of markers of renal disease in this community was consistent with their high rates of ESRD. The distribution of microalbuminuria suggested a 'cohort effect', representing a group who will progress to overt albuminuria. The powerful association of renal disease markers with CV risk factors confirms a strong link between renal and CV disease in the early, asymptomatic stages of each. Thus, pathologic albuminuria, in part, might be a manifestation of the metabolic/haemodynamic syndrome and both conditions might arise out of a common menu of risk factors. Hence, a single agenda of primary and secondary intervention may benefit both.

The outcome in Australian children with hyperinsulinism of infancy: early extensive surgery in severe cases lowers risk of diabetes

AIMS Hyperinsulinism of infancy (HI) is characterized by unregulated insulin secretion in the presence of hypoglycaemia, often resulting in brain damage. Pancreatic resection for control of hypoglycaemia is frequently resisted because of the risk of diabetes mellitus (DM). We investigated retrospectively 62 children with HI from nine Australian treatment centres born between 1972 and 1998, comparing endocrine and neurological outcome in 28 patients receiving medical therapy alone with 34 who required pancreatic resection to control their hypoglycaemia. METHODS History, treatment and clinical course were ascertained from file audit and interview. Risk of DM (hazard ratio) attributable to age at surgery (< vs. greater than or equal to 100 days at last pancreatectomy) and extent of resection (< vs. greater than or equal to 95%) were calculated using Cox proportional hazards regression and categorical variables compared by the chi(2) -test. Neurological outcome (normal, mild deficit or severe deficit) was derived from the most authoritative source. RESULTS Surgically treated patients had a greater birthweight, earlier presentation and higher plasma insulin levels. Of 18 infants < 100 days and 16 greater than or equal to 100 days of age at surgery, four (all greater than or equal to 100 days) became diabetic as an immediate consequence of surgery and five (two < 100 days and three greater than or equal to 100 days) became diabetic 7-18 years later. Surgery greater than or equal to 100 days and pancreatectomy greater than or equal to 95% were associated with development of diabetes (HR = 12.61, CI 1.53-104.07 and HR = 7.03, CI 1.43-34.58, respectively). Neurodevelopmental outcome was no different between the surgical and medical groups with 44% overall with neurological deficits. Patients euglycaemic within 35 days of the first symptom of hypoglycaemia (Group A) had a better neurodevelopmental outcome than those still hypoglycaemic > 35 days from first presentation (Group B) (P = 0.007). Prolonged hypoglycaemia in Group B was due either to delayed diagnosis or to need for repeat surgery because of continued hypoglycaemia. Within Group A, medically treated patients (who presented later with apparently milder disease) had a higher incidence of neurodevelopmental deficit (n = 15, four mild, three severe deficit) compared with surgically treated patients (n = 18, two mild, none severe deficit) (P < 0.025). CONCLUSIONS Poor neurodevelopmental outcome remains a major problem in hyperinsulinism of infancy. Risk of diabetes mellitus with pancreatectomy varies according to age at surgery and extent of resection. Patients presenting early with severe disease have a better neurodevelopmental outcome and lower risk of diabetes if they are treated with early extensive surgery.

Effect of periodontal treatment on the serum antibody levels to heat shock proteins

We have shown previously that both humoral and cellular immune responses to heat shock protein 60 (HSP60) are elevated in chronic periodontitis patients compared with non-diseased subjects. The aim of the present study was to determine whether periodontal treatment could influence the level of serum antibodies to human HSP60 and Porphyromonas gingivalis GroEL, a bacterial homologue of human HSP60. Sera were obtained from 21 patients with moderate to advanced chronic periodontitis at the baseline examination and again after completion of treatment. Antibody levels were determined using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. The mean anti-P. gingivalis GroEL antibody levels were down-regulated significantly by periodontal treatment when recombinant P. gingivalis GroEL was used as an antigen, whereas antibody levels to P. gingivalis GroEL-specific peptide were significantly elevated following successful periodontal therapy. The mean level of anti-human HSP60 antibody remained unchanged although individual levels of antibody either increased or decreased after periodontal treatment, suggesting that synthesis of these antibodies might be regulated independently during the course of periodontal infection. Although their regulatory mechanisms in chronic infection are not understood, further study would provide insight not only into the role of these antibodies in the pathogenesis of periodontitis but also into the possible link between periodontitis and systemic diseases such as coronary heart disease.

Epidermal Growth Factor Gene (EGF) Polymorphism and Risk of Melanocytic Neoplasiay

A common single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) in the 5' untranslated region (5'UTR) of the epidermal growth factor (EGF) gene modulates the level of transcription of this gene and hence is associated with serum levels of EGF. This variant may be associated with melanoma risk, but conflicting findings have been reported. An Australian melanoma case-control sample was typed for the EGF+61A>G transversion (rs4444903). The sample comprised 753 melanoma cases from 738 families stratified by family history of melanoma and 2387 controls from 645 unselected twin families. Ancestry of the cases and controls was recorded, and the twins had undergone skin examination to assess total body nevus count, degree of freckling and pigmentation phenotype. SNP genotyping was carried out via primer extension followed by matrix-assisted laser desorption time of flight (MALDI-TOF) mass spectroscopy. The EGIF+61 SNP was not found to be significantly associated with melanoma status or with development of nevi or freckles. Among melanoma cases, however, G homozygotes had thicker tumors (p=0.05), in keeping with two previous studies. The EGF polymorphism does not appear to predispose to melanoma or nevus development, but its significant association with tumor thickness implies that it may be a useful marker of prognosis.

Carotid intima-media thickness, cardiovascular risk factors and albuminuria in a remote Australian Aboriginal community

Background: Rates of cardiovascular disease and renal disease in Australian Aboriginal communities are high, as is the prevalence of some 'traditional' cardiovascular (CV) risk factors, such as diabetes and cigarette smoking. Recent work has highlighted the importance of markers of inflammation, such as C-reactive protein (CRP), homocysteine and albuminuria as predictors of cardiovascular risk in urban westernised settings. It is not clear how these factors relate to outcome in the setting of these remote communities, but very high CRP concentrations have been shown in this and other Aboriginal communities. Methods and results: In a cross-sectional survey including 237 adults in a remote Aboriginal community in the Northern Territory of Australia, we measured carotid intima-media thickness (IMT), together with blood pressure, diabetes, lipid levels, smoking and albuminuria, CRP and fibrinogen, serum homocysteine concentration, and IgG titres for Chlamydia pneumoniae, Helicobacter pylori and cytomegalovirus. Median carotid IMT was 0.63 [interquartile range 0.54-0.71] mm. As a categorical outcome, the prevalence of the highest IMT quartile ('increased IMT', greater than or equal to0.72 mm) was compared with the lower three quartiles. Increased IMT was associated in univariate analyses with greater waist circumference, systolic BP, fibrinogen and serum albumin concentrations, urine albumin/creatinine ratio and older age as continuous variables. Associations of increased IMT with some continuous variables were not linear; univariate associations were seen with the highest quartile (versus all other quartiles) of CRP and homocysteine concentration and CMV IgG titre. In a multivariate model age, smoking, waist circumference and the highest quartile of CRP concentrations (greater than or equal to14 mg/l) remained significant predictors of IMT greater than or equal to0.72 mm. Conclusions: Measurement of carotid IMT was possible in this remote setting. Increased IMT (greater than or equal to0.72 mm) was associated with increased CRP concentrations over a range that suggests infection/inflammation may be important determinants of cardiovascular risk in this setting. The associations of IMT with markers of renal disease seen in univariate analyses were explained in this analysis by confounding due to the associations of urine ACR with other risk factors. (C) 2004 Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

Effect of periodontal treatment on the C-reactive protein and proinflammatory cytokine levels in Japanese periodontitis patients

Background: Recent epidemiological studies have shown that individuals with periodontitis have a significantly increased risk of developing coronary heart disease. In addition to conventional risk factors, chronic infection and subsequent production of systemic inflammatory markers may be associated with this increased risk. Objectives: The aim of the present study was to determine whether the presence of chronic periodontitis and subsequent periodontal treatment could influence the serum levels of C-reactive protein (CRP), interleukin-6 and tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-alpha) in a Japanese population. Methods: Sera were obtained from 24 patients with moderate to advanced periodontitis at the baseline examination and at reassessment after completion of treatment. As a control, sera were also obtained from 21 subjects without periodontitis. High-sensitivity CRP (hs-CRP) was measured using nephelometry with a latex particle-enhanced immunoassay and interleukin-6 and TNF-alpha were determined by sensitive enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Results: The levels of hs-CRP and interleukin-6 in the sera of this Japanese population seemed to be much lower than those reported in other populations. TNF-alpha on the other hand, demonstrated similar levels between this Japanese and other populations. Periodontal status demonstrated a significant improvement in all patients following treatment. There was a trend toward higher hs-CRP levels in patients at baseline compared with control subjects. Hs-CRP level tended to decrease with improvement of the periodontal condition following treatment and approached that of control subjects, although this decline was not statistically significant. interleukin-6 and TNF-alpha levels did not change following periodontal treatment. Furthermore, there was no difference in the serum levels of these inflammatory cytokines between patients either at baseline or at reassessment and control subjects. Conclusions: In this pilot study, we were unable to show that periodontal disease significantly affects the serum levels of systemic inflammatory markers. However, this does not necessarily mean that periodontitis does not contribute to the total burden of inflammation as there was a tendency for hs-CRP to decrease following successful periodontal treatment. Large-scale studies are clearly needed to determine the impact of periodontal disease on systemic inflammation.

Investigation of the low-density lipoprotein receptor gene and cholesterol as a risk factor for migraine

The Low-Density Lipoprotein Receptor (LDLR) gene is a cell surface receptor that plays an important role in cholesterol homeostasis. We investigated the (TA)n polymorphism in exon 18 of the LDLR gene on chromosome 19p13.2 performing an association analysis in 244 typical migraine-affected patients, 151 suffering from migraine with aura (MA), 96 with migraine without aura (MO) and 244 unaffected controls. The populations consisted of Caucasians only, and controls were age- and sex-matched. The results showed no significant difference between groups for allele frequency distributions of the (TA)n polymorphism even after separation of the migraine-affected individuals into subgroups of MA and MO affected patients. This is in contradiction to Mochi et al. [Mochi M, Cevoli S, Cortelli P, Pierangeli G, Scapoli C, Soriani S, Montagna P. Investigation of an LDLR gene polymorphism (19p13.2) in susceptibility to migrane without aura. J Neurol Sci 2003; 213 (1-2): 7-10.] who found a positive association of this variant with MO. Our study discusses possible differences between the two studies and extends this research by investigating circulating cholesterol levels in a migraine-affected population. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Alcohol, wine, and risk of epithelial ovarian cancer

Moderate alcohol intake can influence sex hormone levels and affect ovarian function as well as increasing breast cancer risk. This suggests that alcohol might also influence ovarian cancer risk. We have evaluated this among 696 Australian women with histologically confirmed epithelial ovarian cancer and 786 cancer-free control women, selected at random from the electoral roll. Sociodemographic information and a detailed reproductive history were collected in a face-to-face interview, and information about diet and alcohol consumption was obtained from a food frequency questionnaire. Logistic regression was used to calculate adjusted odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). Overall, 59% of women drank

Prevalence, intensity and risk factors for soil-transmitted helminth infection in a South Indian fishing village

A study of the prevalence, intensity and risk factors for soil-transmitted helminth infection was undertaken among school children aged 5-9 years attending a primary school in the fishing village in Peda Jalaripet, Visakhapatnam, South India. One hundred and eighty nine (92.6%) of 204 children were infected with one or more soil transmitted helminth parasites. The predominant parasite was Ascaris lumbricoides (prevalence of 91%), followed by Trichuris trichiura (72%) and hookworm (54%). Study of age-specific prevalence and intensity of infection revealed that the prevalence and intensity of A. lumbricoides infection was higher among younger children than older children. While aggregation of parasite infection was observed, hookworm infection was more highly aggregated than either A. lumbricoides or T. trichiura. Multivariate analysis identified parental occupation, child's age and mother's education as the potential risk factors contributing to the high intensity of A. lumbricoides infection. Children from fishing families with low levels of education of the mother had the highest intensity of A. lumbricoides infection. As the outcome of chemotherapy programs to control soil transmitted helminth infection is dependant on the dynamics of their transmission, there is a need for further studies to better define the role of specific factors that determine their prevalence, intensity and aggregation in different epidemiological settings. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Adaptation to being at-risk for Huntington's disease and the availability of genetic testing: Application of a stress and coping model

This study examined the utility of a stress/coping model in explaining adaptation in two groups of people at-risk for Huntington's Disease (HD): those who have not approached genetic testing services (non-testees) and those who have engaged a testing service (testees). The aims were (1) to compare testees and non-testees on stress/coping variables, (2) to examine relations between adjustment and the stress/coping predictors in the two groups, and (3) to examine relations between the stress/coping variables and testees' satisfaction with their first counselling session. Participants were 44 testees and 40 non-testees who completed questionnaires which measured the stress/coping variables: adjustment (global distress, depression, health anxiety, social and dyadic adjustment), genetic testing concerns, testing context (HD contact, experience, knowledge), appraisal (control, threat, self-efficacy), coping strategies (avoidance, self-blame, wishful thinking, seeking support, problem solving), social support and locus of control. Testees also completed a genetic counselling session satisfaction scale. As expected, non-testees reported lower self-efficacy and control appraisals, higher threat and passive avoidant coping than testees. Overall, results supported the hypothesis that within each group poorer adjustment would be related to higher genetic testing concerns, contact with HD, threat appraisals, passive avoidant coping and external locus of control, and lower levels of positive experiences with HD, social support, internal locus of control, self-efficacy, control appraisals, problem solving, emotional approach and seeking social support coping. Session satisfaction scores were positively correlated with dyadic adjustment, problem solving and positive experience with HD, and inversely related to testing concerns, and threat and control appraisals. Findings support the utility of the stress/coping model in explaining adaptation in people who have decided not to seek genetic testing for HD and those who have decided to engage a genetic testing service.

Effects of pravastatin on coronary events in 2073 patients with low levels of both low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol: results from the LIPID study

Aims Fibrates or nicotinic acid are usually recommended for secondary prevention of coronary heart disease in patients with low plasma levels of both low-density tipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) less than or equal to140 mg/dL (less than or equal to3.6 mmol/L) and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) less than or equal to40 mg/dL (less than or equal to1.03 mmol/L). The LIPID trial, a randomised, placebo-controlled trial in 9014 patients at 87 centres in Australia and New Zealand, provided an opportunity to investigate the effects of an HMG-CoA reductase inhibitor in patients with tow LDL-C and tow HDL-C. Methods and results Participants in this post hoc substudy were 2073 patients aged 31-75 years with baseline LDL-C less than or equal to140 mg/dL (less than or equal to3.6 mmoL/L), HDL-C less than or equal to40 mg/dL (less than or equal to1.03 mmol/L), and triglyceride less than or equal to300 mg/dL (less than or equal to3.4 mmol/L). The relative risk reduction with pravastatin treatment was 27% for major coronary events (95% Cl 8-42%), 27% for coronary heart disease mortality (95% CI 0-47%), 21% for all-cause mortality (95% Cl 0-38%), and 51% for stroke (95% CI 24-69%). The number needed to treat to prevent a major coronary event over 6 years was 22. Conclusions Treatment with pravastatin in patients with both low LDL-C and low HDL-C significantly reduced major coronary events, stroke, and all-cause mortality. The level of HDL-C is crucial to the risk of recurrent CHD events and, consequently, the benefit of lowering LDL-C. (C) 2004 Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of The European Society of Cardiology.