Estimating trends and seasonality in coronary heart disease

We present two methods of estimating the trend, seasonality and noise in time series of coronary heart disease events. In contrast to previous work we use a non-linear trend, allow multiple seasonal components, and carefully examine the residuals from the fitted model. We show the importance of estimating these three aspects of the observed data to aid insight of the underlying process, although our major focus is on the seasonal components. For one method we allow the seasonal effects to vary over time and show how this helps the understanding of the association between coronary heart disease and varying temperature patterns. Copyright (C) 2004 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

Ethics and health systems research in 'post'-conflict situations

Although considerable attention has been given to ethical issues related to clinical research in developing countries, in particular related to HIV therapy, there has been limited focus on health systems research, despite its increasing importance in the light of current trends in development assistance. This paper examines ethical issues related to health systems research in 'post'-conflict situations, addressing both generic issues for developing countries and those issues specific to 'post'-conflict societies, citing examples from the author's Cambodian experience. It argues that the destruction of health infrastructure results in a loss of structures and processes that would otherwise protect prospective research subjects who are part of vulnerable populations. It identifies the growth of health systems research as part of a trend towards sectoral and programmatic development assistance, the emergence of 'knowledge generation' as a form of research linked to development, and the potential for conflict where multilateral and bilateral donors are both primary funders and users of health systems research. It also examines the position of the health system researcher in relation to the sponsors of this research, and the health system being analysed.

The contribution of research to Australian policy responses to heroin dependence 1990-2001: a personal retrospection

Periodic public concern about heroin use has been a major driver of Australian drug policy in the four decades since heroin use was first reported. The number of heroin-dependent people in Australia has increased from several hundreds in the late 1960s to around 100000 by the end of the 1990s. In this paper I do the following: (1) describe collaborative research on heroin dependence that was undertaken between 1991 and 2001 by researchers at the National Drug and Alcohol Research Centre: (2) discuss the contribution that this research may have made to the formulation of policies towards the treatment of heroin dependence during a period when the policy debate crystallized around the issue of whether or not Australia should conduct a controlled trial of heroin prescription; and (3) reflect on the relationships between research and policy-making in the addictions field, specifically on the roles of investigator-initiated and commissioned research, the interface between researchers, funders and policymakers: and the need to be realistic about the likely impact of research on policy and practice.

Participatory approach for the identification of dairy industry needs in the design of research, development and extension actions: Australian and Brazilian case studies

In both Australia and Brazil there are rapid changes occurring in the macroenvironment of the dairy industry. These changes are sometimes not noticed in the microenvironment of the farm, due to the labour-intensive nature of family farms, and the traditionally weak links between production and marketing. Trends in the external environment need to be discussed in a cooperative framework, to plan integrated actions for the dairy community as a whole and to demand actions from research, development and extension (R, D & E). This paper reviews the evolution of R, D & E in terms of paradigms and approaches, the present strategies used to identify dairy industry needs in Australia and Brazil, and presents a participatory strategy to design R, D & E actions for both countries. The strategy incorporates an integration of the opinions of key industry actors ( defined as members of the dairy and associated communities), especially farm suppliers ( input market), farmers, R, D & E people, milk processors and credit providers. The strategy also uses case studies with farm stays, purposive sampling, snowball interviewing techniques, semi-structured interviews, content analysis, focus group meetings, and feedback analysis, to refine the priorities for R, D & E actions in the region.

A methodology for analysis of sugarcane productivity trends - 2. Comparing variety trials with commercial productivity

Previous research has reported both agreements and serious anomalies in relationships between production attributes of sugarcane varieties in variety trials (VTs) and commercial production (CP). This paper examines VT and CP data for tonnes of cane per hectare (TCH) and sugar content (CCS). Data, analysed by REML, included 107 VTs and 54 CP mill years for 9 varieties from the mill districts of Mulgrave, Babinda, and Tully for harvest years 1982-99. Important consistencies included high TCH of Q152, high CCS of Q117 and Q120, and low CCS of H56-752. Significant anomalies existed with respect to TCH for Q113, Q117, Q120, Q122, Q138, and H56-752 and to CCS for Q113 and Q124. Investigation of these anomalies was assisted by access to independent REML analyses of CP data for 65692 individual Tully cane blocks from 1988 to 1999 and by the knowledge of persons familiar with the preferential uses of varieties by farmers. Minor anomalies were due to limited year or mill area data. Q124 TCH was deemed to be decreased and its CCS increased by severe disease in Babinda CP in the extremely wet 1998 and 1999 seasons. Other serious anomalies have credible but unsubstantiated explanations. The most convincing, for Q113, Q117, Q138, and H56-752, are that these varieties were deployed unevenly with regard to late season harvesting, predominant use or avoidance on high fertility soils, or use confined to low fertility sandy soils, respectively. Uneven deployment results in confounding of these effects in the varietal CP statistics at mill area level. It is concluded that VTs cannot be enhanced to anticipate or evaluate most effects of uneven deployment. They give adequate predictions of relative CP performance for varieties deployed evenly across confounding influences. Routine analyses of individual block CP data would be useful and enhanced by addition of relevant information to the block records.

Trends in morphine prescriptions, illicit morphine use and associated harms among regular injecting drug users in Australia

This paper examines population trends in morphine prescriptions in Australia, and contrasts them with findings from annual surveys with regular injecting drug users (IDU). Data on morphine prescriptions from 1995 to 2003 were obtained from the Drug Monitoring System (DRUMS) run by the Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing. Data collected from regular IDU as part of the Australian Illicit Drug Reporting System (IDRS) were analysed (2001-2004). The rate of morphine prescription per person aged 15-54 years increased by 89% across Australia between 1995 and 2003 (from 46.3 to 85.9 mg per person). Almost half (46%) of IDU surveyed in 2004 reported illicit morphine use, with the highest rates in jurisdictions where heroin was less available. Recent morphine injectors were significantly more likely to be male, unemployed, out of treatment and homeless in comparison to IDU who had not injected morphine. They were also more likely to have injected other pharmaceutical drugs and to report injection related problems. Among those who had injected morphine recently, the most commonly reported injecting harms were morphine dependence (38%), difficulty finding veins into which to inject (36%) and scarring or bruising (27%). Morphine use and injection is a common practice among regular IDU in Australia. In some cases, morphine may be a substitute for illicit heroin; in others, it may be being used to treat heroin dependence where other pharmacotherapies, such as methadone and buprenorphine, are perceived as being unavailable or undesirable by IDU. Morphine injection appears to be associated with polydrug use, and with it, a range of problems related to drug injection. Further research is required to monitor and reduce morphine diversion and related harms by such polydrug injectors.