Regression to the mean: what it is and how to deal with it

Background Regression to the mean (RTM) is a statistical phenomenon that can make natural variation in repeated data look like real change. It happens when unusually large or small measurements tend to be followed by measurements that are closer to the mean. Methods We give some examples of the phenomenon, and discuss methods to overcome it at the design and analysis stages of a study. Results The effect of RTM in a sample becomes more noticeable with increasing measurement error and when follow-up measurements are only examined on a sub-sample selected using a baseline value. Conclusions RTM is a ubiquitous phenomenon in repeated data and should always be considered as a possible cause of an observed change. Its effect can be alleviated through better study design and use of suitable statistical methods.

Modelling inpatient length of stay by a hierarchical mixture regression via the EM algorithm

The modelling of inpatient length of stay (LOS) has important implications in health care studies. Finite mixture distributions are usually used to model the heterogeneous LOS distribution, due to a certain proportion of patients sustaining-a longer stay. However, the morbidity data are collected from hospitals, observations clustered within the same hospital are often correlated. The generalized linear mixed model approach is adopted to accommodate the inherent correlation via unobservable random effects. An EM algorithm is developed to obtain residual maximum quasi-likelihood estimation. The proposed hierarchical mixture regression approach enables the identification and assessment of factors influencing the long-stay proportion and the LOS for the long-stay patient subgroup. A neonatal LOS data set is used for illustration, (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparison of rural and urban attitudes to the conservation of Asian elephants in Sri Lanka: empirical evidence

There has been little study of economic and general attitudes towards the conservation of the Asian elephant. This paper reports and analyses results from surveys conducted in Sri Lanka of attitudes of urban dwellers and farmers towards nature conservation in general and the elephant conservation in particular. The analyses are based on urban and a rural sample. Contingent valuation techniques are used as survey instruments. Multivariate logit regression analysis is used to analyse the respondents' attitudes towards conservation of elephants. It is found that, although some variations occurred between the samples, the majority of the respondents (both rural and urban) have positive attitudes towards nature conservation in general. However, marked differences in attitudes toward elephant conservation are evident between these two samples: the majority of urban respondents were in favour of elephant conservation; rural respondents expressed a mixture of positive and negative attitudes. Overall, considerable unrecorded and as yet unutilised economic support for conservation of wild elephants exists in Sri Lanka. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

The application of proteomics to the human alcoholic brain

Alcoholism results in changes in the human brain that reinforce the cycle of craving and dependency, and these changes are manifest in the pattern of expression of proteins in key cells and brain areas. Described here is a proteomics-based approach aimed at determining the identity of proteins in the superior frontal cortex (SFC) of the human brain that show different levels of expression in autopsy samples taken from healthy and long-term alcohol abuse subjects. Soluble protein fractions constituting pooled samples combined from SFC biopsies of four well-characterized chronic alcoholics (mean consumption > 80 g ethanol/day throughout adulthood) and four matched controls (< 20 g/day) were generated. Two-dimensional electrophoresis was performed in triplicate on alcoholic and control samples and the resultant protein profiles analyzed for differential expression. Overall, 182 proteins differed by the criterion of twofold or more between case and control samples. Of these, 139 showed significantly lower expression in alcoholics, 35 showed significantly higher expression, and 8 were new or had disappeared. To date, 63 proteins have been identified using MALDI-MS and MS-MS. The finding that the expression level of differentially expressed proteins is preponderantly lower in the alcoholic brain is supported by recent results from parallel studies using microarray mRNA transcript.

Survey of intensive care nurses' knowledge relating to the pulmonary artery catheter

In 2003 there was an increase in the use of pulmonary artery catheters in Australia from 12, 000 to 16, 000 units in intensive care and peri-operative care. This survey of intensive care nurses in five intensive care units in Queensland addressed knowledge of use, safety and complications of the pulmonary artery catheter, using a previously validated 31 question multiple choice survey. One hundred and thirty-nine questionnaires were completed, a response rate of 46%. The mean score was 13.3, standard deviation +/-4.2 out of a total of 31 (42.8% correct). The range was 4 to 25. Scores were significantly higher in those participants with more ICU experience, higher nursing grade, a higher self-assessed level of knowledge and greater frequency of PAC supervision. There was no significant correlation between total score and hospital- or university-based education, or total score and public or private hospital participants. Fifty-one per cent were unable to correctly identify the significant pressure change as the catheter is advanced from the right ventricle to the pulmonary artery.

Contribution of the collagen I alpha 1 and vitamin D receptor genes to the risk of hip fracture in elderly women

Context and Objective: Hip fracture is partially genetically determined. The present study was designed to examine the contributions of vitamin D receptor (VDR) and collagen I alpha 1 (COLIA1) genotypes to the liability to hip fracture in postmenopausal women. Design: The study was designed as a prospective population-based cohort investigation. Subjects: Six hundred seventy-seven postmenopausal women of Caucasian background, aged 70 +/- 7 yr (mean +/- SD), have been followed for up to 14 yr. Sixty-nine women had sustained a hip fracture during the period. Main Outcome: Atraumatic hip fractures were prospectively identified through radiologists' reports. Bone mineral density (BMD) at the hip and lumbar spine was measured by dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry. Genotypes: The TaqI and SpI COLIA1 polymorphisms of the VDR and COLIA1 genes were determined. Using the Single Nucleotide Polymorphism database, VDR TT, Tt, and tt genotypes were coded as TT, TC, and CC, whereas COLIA1 SS, Ss, and ss were coded as GG, GT, and TT. Results: Women with VDR CC genotype (16% prevalence) and COLIA1 TT genotype (5% prevalence) had an increased risk of hip fracture [odds ratio (OR) associated with CC, 2.6; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.2-5.3; OR associated with TT, 3.8; 95% CI, 1.3-10.8] after adjustment for femoral neck BMD (OR, 3.4 per SD; 95% CI, 2.3-5.0) and age (OR, 1.4 per 5 yr; 95% CI, 1.1-1.7). Approximately 20 and 12% of the liability to hip fracture was attributable to the presence of the CC genotype and TT genotype, respectively. Conclusion: The VDR CC genotype and COLIA1 TT genotype were associated with increased hip fracture risk in Caucasian women, and this association was independent of BMD and age.

Morbidity due to Schistosoma mansoni: an epidemiological assessment of distended abdomen syndrome in Ugandan school children with observations before and 1-year after anthelminthic chemotherapy

The objectives of this study were to determine the prevalence and distribution of distended abdomens among Ugandan school children across a range of eco-epidemiological settings and to investigate the relationship between distended abdomens and helminth infections, in particular Schistosoma mansoni, before and 1-year after anthelminthic treatment. A cross-sectional survey was conducted on 4354 school children across eight districts, with a longitudinal 1-year follow-up of 2644 children (60.7%). On both occasions, parasitological, biometrical and clinical data were collected for each child. Baseline prevalence of S. mansoni and hookworms was 44.3% and 51.8%, respectively. Distended abdomens, defined as an abdominal circumference ratio (ACR) >1.05, were observed in 2.5% of the sampled children, several of whom presented with particularly severe distensions necessitating hospital referral. ACR scores were highly overdispersed between districts and schools. Multivariate regression analysis revealed that S. mansoni infection accounted for only a small fraction of ACR variation, suggesting that either single point prevalence and intensity measures failed to reflect this more chronically evolved morbidity and/or that other interacting factors were involved, e.g. malnutrition and malaria. At 1-year follow-up, ACR scores showed an overall trend of regression towards the mean, potentially indicative of amelioration following chemotherapy, but geographic overdispersion still remained. © 2006 Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

The influence of natural body sway on neuromuscular responses to an unpredictable surface translation

Previous research has shown that the postural configuration adopted by a subject, such as active leaning, influences the postural response to an unpredictable support surface translation. While those studies have examined large differences in postural conditions, it is of additional interest to examine the effects of naturally occurring changes in standing posture. Thus, it was hypothesized that the normal postural sway observed during quiet standing would affect the responses to an unpredictable support surface translation. Seventeen young adults stood quietly on a moveable platform and were perturbed in either the forward or backward direction when the location of the center of pressure (COP) was either 1.5 standard deviations anterior or posterior to the mean baseline COP signal. Postural responses, in the form of electromyographic (EMG) latencies and amplitudes, were recorded from lower limb and trunk muscles. When the location of the COP at the time of the translation was in the opposite, as compared to the same, direction as the upcoming translation, there was a significantly earlier onset of the antagonists (10-23%, i.e. 15-45 ms) and a greater EMG amplitude (14-39%) in four of the six recorded muscles. Stepping responses were most frequently observed during trials where the position of the COP was opposite to the direction of the translation. The results support the hypothesis that postural responses to unpredictable support surface translations are influenced by the normal movements of postural sway. The results may help to explain the large variability of postural responses found between past studies.

Contribution of changes in risk factors to the decline of coronary heart disease mortality in Australia over three decades

BACKGROUND: Coronary heart disease has been a major cause of mortality in Australian adults, but the rate has declined by 83% from the 1968 peak by the year 2000. The study objective is to determine the contribution of changes in population risk factors - mean serum cholesterol and diastolic blood pressure and tobacco smoking prevalence - to the decline in coronary heart disease mortality in Australia over three decades. METHODS: Coronary heart disease deaths (International Classification of Disease-9, 410-414) and population by year, age group and sex were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Risk factor levels were obtained from population surveys and estimated average annual changes by period were used to calculate average annual 'attributable' proportional declines in CHD mortality by period (age 35-64 years). RESULTS: Over the period 1968-2000, 74% of male decline and 81% of the female decline in coronary heart disease mortality rate was accounted for by the combined effect of reductions in the three risk factors. In males 36% of the decline was contributed by reductions in diastolic blood pressure, 22% by cholesterol and 16% by smoking. For females 56% was from diastolic blood pressure reduction, 20% from cholesterol and 5% from smoking. Effects of reductions in serum cholesterol on coronary heart disease mortality occurred mainly in the 1970s. Declines in diastolic blood pressure had effects on coronary heart disease mortality over the three decades, and declines in tobacco smoking had a significant effect in males in the 1980s. CONCLUSION: Most of the spectacular decline in coronary heart disease mortality over the last three decades in Australia can be ascribed to reductions in population risk factors from primary and secondary prevention.

2D strain - a new approach to strain and strain rate: the solution to the angle-dependence of tissue Doppler?

Purpose: Tissue Doppler strain rate imaging (SRI) have been validated and applied in various clinical settings, but the clinical use of this modality is still limited due to time-consuming postprocessing, unfavorable signal to noise ratio and major angle dependency of image acquisition. 2D Strain (2DS) measures strain parameters through automated tissue tracking (Lagrangian strain) rather than tissue velocity regression. We sought to compare the accuracy of this technique with SRI and evaluate whether it overcomes the above limitations. Methods: We assessed 26 patients (13 female, age 60±5yrs) at low risk of CAD and with normal DSE at both baseline and peak stress. End systolic strain (ESS), peak systolic strain rate (SR), and timing parameters were measured by two independent observers using SRI and 2D Strain. Myocardial segments were excluded from the analyses if the insonation angle exceeded 30 degrees or if the segments were not visualized; 417 segments were evaluated. Results: Normal ranges for TVI and CEB approaches were comparable for SR (-0.99 ± 0.39 vs -0.88 ± 0.36, p=NS), ESS (-15.1 ± 6.5 vs -14.9 ± 6.3, p=NS), time to end of systole (174 ± 47 vs 174 ± 53, p=NS) and time to peak SR (TTP; 340 ± 34 vs 375 ± 57). The best correlations between the techniques were for time to end systole (rest r=0.6, p