Ground water model calibration using pilot points and regularization

Use of nonlinear parameter estimation techniques is now commonplace in ground water model calibration. However, there is still ample room for further development of these techniques in order to enable them to extract more information from calibration datasets, to more thoroughly explore the uncertainty associated with model predictions, and to make them easier to implement in various modeling contexts. This paper describes the use of pilot points as a methodology for spatial hydraulic property characterization. When used in conjunction with nonlinear parameter estimation software that incorporates advanced regularization functionality (such as PEST), use of pilot points can add a great deal of flexibility to the calibration process at the same time as it makes this process easier to implement. Pilot points can be used either as a substitute for zones of piecewise parameter uniformity, or in conjunction with such zones. In either case, they allow the disposition of areas of high and low hydraulic property value to be inferred through the calibration process, without the need for the modeler to guess the geometry of such areas prior to estimating the parameters that pertain to them. Pilot points and regularization can also be used as an adjunct to geostatistically based stochastic parameterization methods. Using the techniques described herein, a series of hydraulic property fields can be generated, all of which recognize the stochastic characterization of an area at the same time that they satisfy the constraints imposed on hydraulic property values by the need to ensure that model outputs match field measurements. Model predictions can then be made using all of these fields as a mechanism for exploring predictive uncertainty.

Utility of cotyledon and detached leaf assays for assessing root reactions of lucerne to Phytophthora root rot caused by Phytophthora medicaginis

Phytophthora root rot, caused by Phytophthora medicaginis, is a major limitation to lucerne production but it can be managed through the use of resistant cultivars. Current resistance screening methods, using mature plants or post-emergence seedling assays, are costly and time consuming. The use of zoospore inoculum on detached leaves and intact cotyledons as an assay for plant resistance was assessed using genetically defined segregating populations. The detached leaf assay was a reproducible test, but this test could not be used for accurately predicting root ratings. The cotyledon tests using zoospores gave results at the population level that were indicative of the root responses of 19 cultivars and lines tested. The cotyledon reaction of individual plants also showed a strong association with root response. The cotyledon test, while not completely predictive of mature root responses, allowed the selection of Phytophthora resistant plants at a higher frequency than could be achieved by random selection.

Microstructure and grain boundary microanalysis of X70 pipeline steel

Grain boundaries (GBs), particularly ferrite: ferrite GBs, of X70 pipeline steel were characterized using analytical electron microscopy (AEM) in order to understand its intergranular stress corrosion cracking (IGSCC) mechanism(s). The microstructure consisted of ferrite (alpha), carbides at ferrite GBs, some pearlite and some small precipitates inside the ferrite grains. The precipitates containing Ti, Nb, V and N were identified as complex carbo-nitrides and designated as (Ti, Nb, WC, N). The GB carbides occurred (1) as carbides along ferrite GBs, (2) at triple points, and (3) at triple points and extending along the three ferrite GBs. The GB carbides were Mn rich, were sometimes also Si rich, contained no micro-alloying elements (Ti, Nb, V) and also contained no N. It was not possible to measure the GB carbon concentration due to surface hydrocarbon contamination despite plasma cleaning and glove bag transfer from the plasma cleaner to the electron microscope. Furthermore, there may not be enough X-ray signal from the small amount of carbon at the GBs to enable measurement using AEM. However, the microstructure does indicate that carbon does segregate to alpha : alpha GBs during microstructure development. This is particularly significant in relation to the strong evidence in the literature linking the segregation of carbon at GBs to IGSCC. It was possible to measure all other elements of interest. There was no segregation at alpha : alpha GBs, in particular no S, P and N, and also no segregation of the micro-alloying elements, Ti, Nb and V. (C) 2003 Kluwer Academic Publishers.

Energy profiles for ketene cyclizations. interconversion of 1,3-oxazin-6-ones, mesoionic 1,3-oxazinium olates and acylketenes, imidoylketenes, oxoketenimines, and cyclization products

The energy surface connecting oxazinium olates 9, several possible conformers of ketenes 10 and 11, and the final cyclization products 12, 13 and 14, as well as the isomeric 1,3-oxazine-6-ones 15, ring opening of the latter to N-acylimidoylketenes 16, and subsequent rearrangement of 16 to oxoketenimines 17, azetinones 18, and the cyclization products 19 and 20 are evaluated computationally at the B3LYP/6-31G* and B3LYP/6-311+G*//B3LYP/6-31G* levels. The cyclizations of ketenes to oxazinium olates 9 and oxazines 15 have the characteristics of pseudopericyclic reactions. Plots of the energy vs internal reaction coordinate for the cyclization of transoid acylketenes such as 10 to 9 (via TS1) and 16 to 15 (via TS7) feature two inflection points and indicate that the part of the energy surface above the lower inflection points describe internal rotation of the acyl function in the ketene moiety, and the part below this point describes the cyclization of the cisoid ketene to the planar mesoionic oxazinium olate 9 or oxazinone 15. The 1,3-shifts of the OR group that interconvert ketenes 16 and ketenimines 17 via four-membered cyclic transition states TS8 behave similarly, the first portion (from the ketenimine side) of the activation barrier being due largely to internal rotation of substituents, and the top part being due to the 1,3-shift proper.

Experimental and theoretical investigation of the structural, chemical, electronic, and high frequency dielectric properties of barium cadmium tantalate-based ceramics

Single-phase Ba(Cd1/3Ta2/3)O-3 powder was produced using conventional solid state reaction methods. Ba(Cd1/3Ta2/3)O-3 ceramics with 2 wt % ZnO as sintering additive sintered at 1550 degreesC exhibited a dielectric constant of similar to32 and loss tangent of 5x10(-5) at 2 GHz. X-ray diffraction and thermogravimetric measurements were used to characterize the structural and thermodynamic properties of the material. Ab initio electronic structure calculations were used to give insight into the unusual properties of Ba(Cd1/3Ta2/3)O-3, as well as a similar and more widely used material Ba(Zn1/3Ta2/3)O-3. While both compounds have a hexagonal Bravais lattice, the P321 space group of Ba(Cd1/3Ta2/3)O-3 is reduced from P (3) under bar m1 of Ba(Zn1/3Ta2/3)O-3 as a result of a distortion of oxygen away from the symmetric position between the Ta and Cd ions. Both of the compounds have a conduction band minimum and valence band maximum composed of mostly weakly itinerant Ta 5d and Zn 3d/Cd 4d levels, respectively. The covalent nature of the directional d-electron bonding in these high-Z oxides plays an important role in producing a more rigid lattice with higher melting points and enhanced phonon energies, and is suggested to play an important role in producing materials with a high dielectric constant and low microwave loss. (C) 2005 American Institute of Physics.

Comparative adsorption of spherical argon and flexible n-butane in carbon slit pores - a GCMC computer simulation study

In this paper we investigate the difference between the adsorption of spherical molecule argon (at 87.3 K) and the flexible normal butane (at an equivalent temperature of 150 K) in carbon slit pores. These temperatures are equivalent in the sense that they have the same relative distances between their respective triple points and critical points. Higher equivalent temperatures are also studied (122.67 K for argon and 303 K for n-butane) to investigate the effects of temperature on the 2D-transition in adsorbed density. The Grand Canonical Monte Carlo simulation is used to study the adsorption of these two model adsorbates. Beside the longer computation times involved in the computation of n-butane adsorption, n-butane exhibits many interesting behaviors such as: (i) the onset of adsorption occurs sooner (in terms of relative pressure), (ii) the hysteresis for 2D- and 3D-transitions is larger, (iii) liquid-solid transition is not possible, (iv) 2D-transition occurs for n-butane at 150 K while it does not happen for argon except for pores that accommodate two layers of molecules, (v) the maximum pore density is about four times less than that of argon and (vi) the sieving pore width is slightly larger than that for argon. Finally another feature obtained from the Grand Canonical Monte Carlo (GCMC) simulation is the configurational arrangement of molecules in pores. For spherical argon, the arrangement is rather well structured, while for n-butane the arrangement depends very much on the pore size. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A study of the lagged relationships among safety climate, safety motivation, safety behavior, and accidents at the individual and group levels

The authors measured perceptions of safety climate, motivation, and behavior at 2 time points and linked them to prior and subsequent levels of accidents over a 5-year period. A series of analyses examined the effects of top-down and bottom-up processes operating simultaneously over time. In terms of top-down effects, average levels of safety climate within groups at I point in time predicted subsequent changes in individual safety motivation. Individual safety motivation, in turn, was associated with subsequent changes in self-reported safety behavior. In terms of bottom-up effects, improvements in the average level of safety behavior within groups were associated with a subsequent reduction in accidents at the group level. The results contribute to an understanding of the factors influencing workplace safety and the levels and lags at which these effects operate.

Field observations of instantaneous water slopes and horizontal pressure gradients in the swash-zone

Field observations of instantaneous water surface slopes in the swash zone are presented. For free-surface flows with a hydrostatic pressure distribution the surface slope is equivalent to the horizontal pressure gradient. Observations were made using a novel technique which in its simplest form consists of a horizontal stringline extending seaward from the beach face. Visual observation, still photography or video photography is then sufficient to determine the surface slope where the free-surface cuts the line or between reference points in the image. The method resolves the mean surface gradient over a cross-shore distance of 5 m or more to within +/- 0.001, or 1/20th -1/100th of typical beach gradients. In addition, at selected points and at any instant in time during the swash cycle, the water surface slope can be determined exactly to be dipping either seaward or landward. Close to the location of bore collapse landward dipping water surface slopes of order 0.05-0.1 occur over a very small region (order 0.5 m) at the blunt or convex leading edge of the swash. In the middle and upper swash the water surface slope at this leading edge is usually very close to horizontal or slightly seaward. Behind the leading edge, the water surface slope was observed to be very close to horizontal or dipping seaward at all times throughout the swash uprush. During the backwash the water surface slope was observed to be always dipping seaward, approaching the beach slope, and remained seaward until a new uprush edge or incident bore passed any particular cross-shore location of interest. The observations strongly Suggest that the swash boundary layer is subject to an adverse pressure gradient during uprush and a favourable pressure gradient during the backwash. Furthermore, assuming Euler's equations are a good approximation in the swash, the observations also show that the total fluid acceleration is negative (offshore) for almost the whole of the uprush and for the entire backwash. The observations are contrary to recent work suggesting significant shoreward directed accelerations and pressure gradients occur in the swash (i.e., delta u/delta t > 0 similar to delta p/delta x < 0), but consistent with analytical and numerical solutions for swash uprush and backwash. The results have important implications for sediment transport modelling in the swash zone.

Sintering of maraging steel with phosphorous additions

The aim Of this study was to develop a steel powder system for rapid tooling applications. The properties required are rapid densification, dimensional precision. high mechanical strength and corrosion resistance. To this end. the densification and microstructural development of a loose packed 200 grade maraging steel powder sintered with ferrophosphorous additions was examined. Liquid initially formed from a reaction of the Fe3P and carbon, which was a residue of the polymeric binder used to shape the powder compact. This liquid caused a burst of sintering which ceased as the liquid dissipated. On further heating, a phosphorous rich supersolidus liquid appeared at triple points and grain boundaries leading to rapid densification and a sintered density of 98%.

Physiological mechanisms of thermoregulation in reptiles: a review

The thermal dependence of biochemical reaction rates means that many animals regulate their body temperature so that fluctuations in body temperature are small compared to environmental temperature fluctuations. Thermoregulation is a complex process that involves sensing of the environment, and subsequent processing of the environmental information. We suggest that the physiological mechanisms that facilitate thermoregulation transcend phylogenetic boundaries. Reptiles are primarily used as model organisms for ecological and evolutionary research and, unlike in mammals, the physiological basis of many aspects in thermoregulation remains obscure. Here, we review recent research on regulation of body temperature, thermoreception, body temperature set-points, and cardiovascular control of heating and cooling in reptiles. The aim of this review is to place physiological thermoregulation of reptiles in a wider phylogenetic context. Future research on reptilian thermoregulation should focus on the pathways that connect peripheral sensing to central processing which will ultimately lead to the thermoregulatory response.

Chronic hepatitis B: A critical appraisal of current approaches to therapy

Background & Aims: Treatment of chronic hepatitis B (CHB) involves a number of complex and controversial issues. Expert opinions may differ from those of practicing hepatologists and gastroenterologists. We aimed to explore this issue further after a critical review of the literature. Methods: A panel of 14 international experts graded the strength of evidence for 16 statements addressing 3 content areas: patient selection, therapeutic end points, and treatment options. Available data relating to the statements were reviewed critically in 3 small work groups. After discussion of each statement with the entire panel, the experts voted anonymously to accept or reject statements based on the strength of evidence and their experience. A total of 241 members of the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases (AASLD) responded to the same statements and their responses were compared with those of the experts. A discordant response was defined as a difference of more than 20% in any of the 5 graded levels of response (accept or reject) between the 2 groups. Results: With the exception of 2 statements, the experts’ responses were relatively uniform. However, the responses of the AASLD members were discordant from the experts in 12 statements, spanning all 3 content areas. Conclusions: Several areas of disagreement on the management of CHB exist between experts and AASLD members. Our results indicate a potential knowledge gap among practicing hepatologists. Better educational efforts are needed to meet the challenge of managing this complex disorder in which even expert opinion occasionally may disagree.

The cost of uniqueness in groundwater model calibration

Calibration of a groundwater model requires that hydraulic properties be estimated throughout a model domain. This generally constitutes an underdetermined inverse problem, for which a Solution can only be found when some kind of regularization device is included in the inversion process. Inclusion of regularization in the calibration process can be implicit, for example through the use of zones of constant parameter value, or explicit, for example through solution of a constrained minimization problem in which parameters are made to respect preferred values, or preferred relationships, to the degree necessary for a unique solution to be obtained. The cost of uniqueness is this: no matter which regularization methodology is employed, the inevitable consequence of its use is a loss of detail in the calibrated field. This, ill turn, can lead to erroneous predictions made by a model that is ostensibly well calibrated. Information made available as a by-product of the regularized inversion process allows the reasons for this loss of detail to be better understood. In particular, it is easily demonstrated that the estimated value for an hydraulic property at any point within a model domain is, in fact, a weighted average of the true hydraulic property over a much larger area. This averaging process causes loss of resolution in the estimated field. Where hydraulic conductivity is the hydraulic property being estimated, high averaging weights exist in areas that are strategically disposed with respect to measurement wells, while other areas may contribute very little to the estimated hydraulic conductivity at any point within the model domain, this possibly making the detection of hydraulic conductivity anomalies in these latter areas almost impossible. A study of the post-calibration parameter field covariance matrix allows further insights into the loss of system detail incurred through the calibration process to be gained. A comparison of pre- and post-calibration parameter covariance matrices shows that the latter often possess a much smaller spectral bandwidth than the former. It is also demonstrated that, as all inevitable consequence of the fact that a calibrated model cannot replicate every detail of the true system, model-to-measurement residuals can show a high degree of spatial correlation, a fact which must be taken into account when assessing these residuals either qualitatively, or quantitatively in the exploration of model predictive uncertainty. These principles are demonstrated using a synthetic case in which spatial parameter definition is based oil pilot points, and calibration is Implemented using both zones of piecewise constancy and constrained minimization regularization. (C) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Weight gained in two years by a population of mid-aged women: how much is too much?

Objective: To establish the prevalence of weight change in mid-aged women over a 2-year period, and to assess the relationship between weight change and physical and mental well-being (SF36) in order to begin debate about the need for quantified standards of weight gain. Design: Prospective study of weight change and well-being over a 2-year period among mid-aged women participating in a large national survey. Subjects: Seven thousand two hundred and seventy women without surgical menopause aged between 45 and 50 years (termed mid-aged), enrolled in the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health. Measurements: Weight change (self-reported weight at two time points) and physical and mental well-being (SF-36) explored using linear regression, while adjusting for potential confounders. Results: Only half the women maintained their weight within 2.25 kg, and one-third gained more than this amount in a 2-year period. While weight gain (>= 2.25 kg) was negatively associated with physical well-being, both weight loss and weight gain were associated with poorer mental well-being. Conclusion: This is the first prospective study using a large, population-based cohort to demonstrate that small changes in weight are associated with changes in well-being in mid-aged Australian women. It provides further evidence of the need for public health messages to specify the actual amount that constitutes weight gain, but further research is needed to establish these standards for the entire population.

Automatic measurement of vertebral rotation in idiopathic scoliosis

Study Design. Development of an automatic measurement algorithm and comparison with manual measurement methods. Objectives. To develop a new computer-based method for automatic measurement of vertebral rotation in idiopathic scoliosis from computed tomography images and to compare the automatic method with two manual measurement techniques. Summary of Background Data. Techniques have been developed for vertebral rotation measurement in idiopathic scoliosis using plain radiographs, computed tomography, or magnetic resonance images. All of these techniques require manual selection of landmark points and are therefore subject to interobserver and intraobserver error. Methods. We developed a new method for automatic measurement of vertebral rotation in idiopathic scoliosis using a symmetry ratio algorithm. The automatic method provided values comparable with Aaro and Ho's manual measurement methods for a set of 19 transverse computed tomography slices through apical vertebrae, and with Aaro's method for a set of 204 reformatted computed tomography images through vertebral endplates. Results. Confidence intervals (95%) for intraobserver and interobserver variability using manual methods were in the range 5.5 to 7.2. The mean (+/- SD) difference between automatic and manual rotation measurements for the 19 apical images was -0.5 degrees +/- 3.3 degrees for Aaro's method and 0.7 degrees +/- 3.4 degrees for Ho's method. The mean (+/- SD) difference between automatic and manual rotation measurements for the 204 endplate images was 0.25 degrees +/- 3.8 degrees. Conclusions. The symmetry ratio algorithm allows automatic measurement of vertebral rotation in idiopathic scoliosis without intraobserver or interobserver error due to landmark point selection.