Power system sensitivity analysis for probabilistic small signal stability assessment in a deregulated environment

Deregulations and market practices in power industry have brought great challenges to the system planning area. In particular, they introduce a variety of uncertainties to system planning. New techniques are required to cope with such uncertainties. As a promising approach, probabilistic methods are attracting more and more attentions by system planners. In small signal stability analysis, generation control parameters play an important role in determining the stability margin. The objective of this paper is to investigate power system state matrix sensitivity characteristics with respect to system parameter uncertainties with analytical and numerical approaches and to identify those parameters have great impact on system eigenvalues, therefore, the system stability properties. Those identified parameter variations need to be investigated with priority. The results can be used to help Regional Transmission Organizations (RTOs) and Independent System Operators (ISOs) perform planning studies under the open access environment.

Eigenvalue sensitivity analysis for probabilistic small signal stability assessment

This paper presents a method to analyze the first order eigenvalue sensitivity with respect to the operating parameters of a power system. The method is based on explicitly expressing the system state matrix into sub-matrices. The eigenvalue sensitivity is calculated based on the explicitly formed system state matrix. The 4th order generator model and 4th order exciter system model are used to form the system state matrix. A case study using New England 10-machine 39-bus system is provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. This method can be applied into large scale power system eigenvalue sensitivity with respect to operating parameters.

Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses for burden of disease and risk factor estimates

Epidemiological studies report confidence or uncertainty intervals around their estimates. Estimates of the burden of diseases and risk factors are subject to a broader range of uncertainty because of the combination of multiple data sources and value choices. Sensitivity analysis can be used to examine the effects of social values that have been incorporated into the design of the disability–adjusted life year (DALY). Age weight, where a year of healthy life lived at one age is valued differently from at another age, is the most controversial value built into the DALY. The discount rate, which addresses the difference in value of current versus future health benefits, also has been criticized. The distribution of the global disease burden and rankings of various conditions are largely insensitive to alternate assumptions about the discount rate and age weighting. The major effects of discounting and age weighting are to enhance the importance of neuropsychiatric conditions and sexually transmitted infections. The Global Burden of Disease study also has been criticized for estimating mortality and disease burden for regions using incomplete and uncertain data. Including uncertain results, with uncertainty quantified to the extent possible, is preferable, however, to leaving blank cells in tables intended to provide policy makers with an overall assessment of burden of disease. No estimate is generally interpreted as no problem. Greater investment in getting the descriptive epidemiology of diseases and injuries correct in poor countries will do vastly more to reduce uncertainty in disease burden assessments than a philosophical debate about the appropriateness of social value

Validation of multicriteria analysis models

Validation procedures play an important role in establishing the credibility of models, improving their relevance and acceptability. This article reviews the testing of models relevant to environmental and natural resource management with particular emphasis on models used in multicriteria analysis (MCA). Validation efforts for a model used in a MCA catchment management study in North Queensland, Australia, are presented. Determination of face validity is found to be a useful approach in evaluating this model, and sensitivity analysis is useful in checking the stability of the model. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

On the simultaneous use of clinical and microarray expression data in the cluster analysis of tissue samples

This paper considers a model-based approach to the clustering of tissue samples of a very large number of genes from microarray experiments. It is a nonstandard problem in parametric cluster analysis because the dimension of the feature space (the number of genes) is typically much greater than the number of tissues. Frequently in practice, there are also clinical data available on those cases on which the tissue samples have been obtained. Here we investigate how to use the clinical data in conjunction with the microarray gene expression data to cluster the tissue samples. We propose two mixture model-based approaches in which the number of components in the mixture model corresponds to the number of clusters to be imposed on the tissue samples. One approach specifies the components of the mixture model to be the conditional distributions of the microarray data given the clinical data with the mixing proportions also conditioned on the latter data. Another takes the components of the mixture model to represent the joint distributions of the clinical and microarray data. The approaches are demonstrated on some breast cancer data, as studied recently in van't Veer et al. (2002).

Hepatic structure-pharmacokinetic relationships: The hepatic disposition and metabolite kinetics of a homologous series of O-acyl derivatives of salicylic acid

1 The hepatic disposition and metabolite kinetics of a homologous series of O-acyl (acetyl, propionyl, butanoyl, pentanoyl, hexanoyl and octanoyl) esters of salicylic acid (C2SA, C3SA, C4SA, C5SA, C6SA and C8SA, respectively) was determined using a single-pass, in-sills rat liver preparation. 2 The hepatic venous outflow profiles for the parent esters and the generated metabolite, salicylic acid (SA) were analysed by HPLC. Non-parametric moments analysis was used to determine the area under the curve (AUC'), mean transit time (MTT) and normalized variance (CV2) for the parent esters and generated SA. 3 Pregenerated SA ([C-14]-salicylic acid) was injected into each liver with the parent ester to determine its distribution characteristics. 4 The overall recovery of ester plus metabolite was 89% of the ester dose injected and independent of the ester carbon number, suggesting that ester extraction was due to hepatic metabolism to salicylic acid. 5 The metabolite AUC' value increased directly with the lipophilicity of the parent ester (from 0.12 for C2SA to 0.95 for C8SA). By contrast, the parent AUC' decreased with the lipophilicity (from 0.85 for C2SA to zero for C8SA). The metabolite MTT value also showed a trend to increase with the lipophilicity of the parent ester (from 15.72 s for C3SA to 61.97 s for C8SA). However, the parent MTT value shows no significant change across the series. 6 The two-compartment dispersion model was used to derive the kinetic parameters for parent ester, pregenerated SA and generated SA. Consequently, these parameters were used to estimate the values of AUG', MITT and CV2 for the parent ester and metabolite. The moments values obtained using the two-compartment dispersion model show similar trends to the corresponding moments values obtained from the outflow profiles using a non-parametric approach. 7 The more lipophilic aspirin analogues are more confined to the portal circulation after oral administration than aspirin due to their more extensive hepatic elimination avoiding systemic prostacyclin inhibition. Given that aspirin's selectivity as an anti-thrombotic agent has been postulated to be due to selective anti-platelet effects in the portal circulation, the more lipophilic and highly extracted analogues are potentially more selective anti-thrombotic agents than aspirin.

Simulation and optimization of heated, inviscid flows in scramjet ducts

A space-marching code for the simulation and optimization of inviscid supersonic flow in three dimensions is described. The now in a scramjet module with a relatively complex three-dimensional geometry is examined and wall-pressure estimates are compared with experimental data. Given that viscous effects are not presently included, the comparison is reasonable. The thermodynamic compromise of adding heat in a diverging combustor is also examined. The code is then used to optimize the shape of a thrust surface for a simpler (box-section) scramjet module in the presence of uniform and nonuniform heat distributions. The optimum two-dimensional profiles for the thrust surface are obtained via a perturbation procedure that requires about 30-50 now solutions. It is found that the final shapes are fairly insensitive to the details of the heat distribution.

Determining forest structural attributes using an inverted geometric-optical model in mixed eucalypt forests, Southeast Queensland, Australia

The Montreal Process indicators are intended to provide a common framework for assessing and reviewing progress toward sustainable forest management. The potential of a combined geometrical-optical/spectral mixture analysis model was assessed for mapping the Montreal Process age class and successional age indicators at a regional scale using Landsat Thematic data. The project location is an area of eucalyptus forest in Emu Creek State Forest, Southeast Queensland, Australia. A quantitative model relating the spectral reflectance of a forest to the illumination geometry, slope, and aspect of the terrain surface and the size, shape, and density, and canopy size. Inversion of this model necessitated the use of spectral mixture analysis to recover subpixel information on the fractional extent of ground scene elements (such as sunlit canopy, shaded canopy, sunlit background, and shaded background). Results obtained fron a sensitivity analysis allowed improved allocation of resources to maximize the predictive accuracy of the model. It was found that modeled estimates of crown cover projection, canopy size, and tree densities had significant agreement with field and air photo-interpreted estimates. However, the accuracy of the successional stage classification was limited. The results obtained highlight the potential for future integration of high and moderate spatial resolution-imaging sensors for monitoring forest structure and condition. (C) Elsevier Science Inc., 2000.

An economic evaluation of plasma production via erythroplasmapheresis and whole blood collection

This paper presents cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs) of plasma collection via two alternative methods: whole blood collection (WBC) and erythroplasmapheresis collection (EPC). The objective of the study is to provide an answer to the question 'What is the least-cost method of plasma production'. This question is answered, both from the viewpoint of the blood collection agency (using financial CEA) and from that of 'society' as a whole (using economic CEA). We employ detailed financial data and economic survey data for collections made by a blood collection agency and to WBC and EPC donors in Brisbane, Australia. The results indicate that, despite the superior yield provided by EPC, WBC is actually more cost-effective. This result is robust to thorough sensitivity analysis and arises regardless of whether an economic or financial perspective is taken. We conclude that, ceteris paribus, the cost of recruiting new plasma donors would need to be quite substantial for marginal investments in EPC to be considered cost-effective. Crown Copyright (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessing cost-effectiveness in mental health: family interventions for schizophrenia and related conditions

Objective: Existing evidence suggests that family interventions can be effective in reducing relapse rates in schizophrenia and related conditions. Despite this, such interventions are not routinely delivered in Australian mental health services. The objective of the current study is to investigate the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) of introducing three types of family interventions, namely: behavioural family management (BFM); behavioural intervention for families (BIF); and multiple family groups (MFG) into current mental health services in Australia. Method: The ICER of each of the family interventions is assessed from a health sector perspective, including the government, persons with schizophrenia and their families/carers using a standardized methodology. A two-stage approach is taken to the assessment of benefit. The first stage involves a quantitative analysis based on disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted. The second stage involves application of 'second filter' criteria (including equity, strength of evidence, feasibility and acceptability to stakeholders) to results. The robustness of results is tested using multivariate probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Results: The most cost-effective intervention, in order of magnitude, is BIF (A$8000 per DALY averted), followed by MFG (A$21 000 per DALY averted) and lastly BFM (A$28 000 per DALY averted). The inclusion of time costs makes BFM more cost-effective than MFG. Variation of discount rate has no effect on conclusions. Conclusions: All three interventions are considered 'value-for-money' within an Australian context. This conclusion needs to be tempered against the methodological challenge of converting clinical outcomes into a generic economic outcome measure (DALY). Issues surrounding the feasibility of routinely implementing such interventions need to be addressed.

Postmenopausal Hormone Use, Screening, and Breast Cancer: Characterization and Control of a Bias

Previous investigators have suggested that screening-related biases may explain associations between postmenopausal hormone use and breast cancer. To investigate these biases, we studied postmenopausal women in the Nurses' Health Study from 1988 to 1994. Hormone use is associated with increased subsequent screening. Among women not screened in the previous 2 years, the probability difference, comparing current hormone users with others, for having mammography in the following 2 years is 19.5%; among women previously screened, the difference is 4.9%. These differences persist after control for other factors. If the increase in screening is causal, screening by mammogram could be intermediate in the causal pathway to breast cancer diagnosis. To deal with this problem, we restrict attention to a subset of the cohort in which the effect of postmenopausal hormone use on screening is small (women previously screened). In this subset, the rate ratio comparing breast cancer rates among current postmenopausal hormone users with others is 1.28. In a sensitivity analysis, the bias could not by itself plausibly account for the associations in our data. Our data provide evidence of an association between postmenopausal hormone use and breast cancer that is not solely the product of a detection bias.

A randomized controlled trial assessing the health economics of realtime teledermatology compared with conventional care: an urban versus rural perspective

A randomized controlled trial was carried out to measure the cost-effectiveness of realtime teledermatology compared with conventional outpatient dermatology care for patients from urban and rural areas. One urban and one rural health centre were linked to a regional hospital in Northern Ireland by ISDN at 128 kbit/s. Over two years, 274 patients required a hospital outpatient dermatology referral -126 patients (46%) were randomized to a telemedicine consultation and 148 (54%) to a conventional hospital outpatient consultation. Of those seen by telemedicine, 61% were registered with an urban practice, compared with 71% of those seen conventionally. The clinical outcomes of the two types of consultation were similar - almost half the patients were managed after a single consultation with the dermatologist. The observed marginal cost per patient of the initial realtime teledermatology consultation was f52.85 for those in urban areas and f59.93 per patient for those from rural areas. The observed marginal cost of the initial conventional consultation was f47.13 for urban patients and f48.77 for rural patients. The total observed costs of teledermatology were higher than the costs of conventional care in both urban and rural areas, mainly because of the fixed equipment costs. Sensitivity analysis using a real-world scenario showed that in urban areas the average costs of the telemedicine and conventional consultations were about equal, while in rural areas the average cost of the telemedicine consultation was less than that of the conventional consultation.