Rising longevity, education, savings, and growth

This paper examines the impact of declines in adult mortality on growth in an overlapping generations model. With public education and imperfect annuity markets, a decline in mortality affects growth through three channels. First, it raises the saving rate and thereby increases the rate of physical capital accumulation. Second, it reduces accidental bequests, lowers investment, and thereby lowers the rate of physical capital accumulation. Third, it may lead the median voter to increase the tax rate for public education initially but lower the tax rate in a later stage. Starting from a high mortality rate as found in many Third World populations, the net effect of a decline in mortality is to raise the growth rate. However, starting from a low mortality rate such as is found in most industrial populations, the net effect of a further decline in mortality is to reduce the growth rate. The findings appear consistent with recent empirical evidence. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V All rights reserved.

Late Quaternary uplift and subsidence of the west coast of Tanna, south Vanuatu, southwest Pacific: U-Th ages of raised coral reefs in the Median Sedimentary Basin

Twelve Late Quaternary TIMS U-Th ages are reported here from 10 coral samples collected in situ from five transgressive coral/algal raised reefs (height: max. 113 m, min. 8 m) and two raised lagoonal deposits (height: max. 18 m, min. 8 m) along and near the west coast of Tanna, which lies in the Median Sedimentary Basin of South Vanuatu, southwest Pacific. These reefs and raised lagoonal deposits represent several age groups: (i) 215 ka (marine oxygen-isotope stage 7) penultimate interglacial (highest elevation and oldest); (ii) one lagoonal deposit of ca 127 ka (marine oxygen-isotope stage 5e); (iii) three last interglacial reefs with ages 102, 89 and 81 ka (representing marine oxygen-isotope stages 5c, 5b and 5a, respectively, of the latter part of the last interglacial); (iv) a lagoonal deposit with a 92 ka age (5b); and (v) a Holocene reef (age >5.7-5.0 ka) (lowest elevation and youngest). A ca 4.9 ka regressive reef (at elevation of 1.5 m above sea-level) is consistent with an island-wide 6.5 m uplift (probably largely coseismic), and a probable further island-wide uplift occurred in the late Holocene. The U-series ages taken together with the heights of transgressive reefs show that uplift since 215 ka was, on average, at similar to0.52 mm/y; although since 5 ka the uplift rate was, on average, similar to1.6 mm/y (the assumption being that a 1.5 m above sea-level reef has a coseismic origin). Elevation of transgressive reefs 5a, 5b and 5c and their ages indicates an island-wide subsidence during the period ?124-89 ka (i.e. Late Quaternary uplift/subsidence was jerky). Late Quaternary uplift/subsidence on the northwest coast of Tanna is considered to be due to irregular thicknesses of crust being subducted beneath Tanna.