Essays on Correlated Equilibrium and Voter Turnout

This thesis consists of three essays in the areas of political economy and game theory, unified by their focus on the effects of pre-play communication on equilibrium outcomes.

Communication is fundamental to elections. Chapter 2 extends canonical voter turnout models, where citizens, divided into two competing parties, choose between costly voting and abstaining, to include any form of communication, and characterizes the resulting set of Aumann's correlated equilibria. In contrast to previous research, high-turnout equilibria exist in large electorates and uncertain environments. This difference arises because communication can coordinate behavior in such a way that citizens find it incentive compatible to follow their correlated signals to vote more. The equilibria have expected turnout of at least twice the size of the minority for a wide range of positive voting costs.

In Chapter 3 I introduce a new equilibrium concept, called subcorrelated equilibrium, which fills the gap between Nash and correlated equilibrium, extending the latter to multiple mediators. Subcommunication equilibrium similarly extends communication equilibrium for incomplete information games. I explore the properties of these solutions and establish an equivalence between a subset of subcommunication equilibria and Myerson's quasi-principals' equilibria. I characterize an upper bound on expected turnout supported by subcorrelated equilibrium in the turnout game.

Chapter 4, co-authored with Thomas Palfrey, reports a new study of the effect of communication on voter turnout using a laboratory experiment. Before voting occurs, subjects may engage in various kinds of pre-play communication through computers. We study three communication treatments: No Communication, a control; Public Communication, where voters exchange public messages with all other voters, and Party Communication, where messages are exchanged only within one's own party. Our results point to a strong interaction effect between the form of communication and the voting cost. With a low voting cost, party communication increases turnout, while public communication decreases turnout. The data are consistent with correlated equilibrium play. With a high voting cost, public communication increases turnout. With communication, we find essentially no support for the standard Nash equilibrium turnout predictions.

Detailed properties of high redshift galaxies

Galaxies evolve throughout the history of the universe from the first star-forming sources, through gas-rich asymmetric structures with rapid star formation rates, to the massive symmetrical stellar systems observed at the present day. Determining the physical processes which drive galaxy formation and evolution is one of the most important questions in observational astrophysics. This thesis presents four projects aimed at improving our understanding of galaxy evolution from detailed measurements of star forming galaxies at high redshift.

We use resolved spectroscopy of gravitationally lensed z ≃ 2 - 3 star forming galaxies to measure their kinematic and star formation properties. The combination of lensing with adaptive optics yields physical resolution of ≃ 100 pc, sufficient to resolve giant Hii regions. We find that ~ 70 % of galaxies in our sample display ordered rotation with high local velocity dispersion indicating turbulent thick disks. The rotating galaxies are gravitationally unstable and are expected to fragment into giant clumps. The size and dynamical mass of giant Hii regions are in agreement with predictions for such clumps indicating that gravitational instability drives the rapid star formation. The remainder of our sample is comprised of ongoing major mergers. Merging galaxies display similar star formation rate, morphology, and local velocity dispersion as isolated sources, but their velocity fields are more chaotic with no coherent rotation.

We measure resolved metallicity in four lensed galaxies at z = 2.0 − 2.4 from optical emission line diagnostics. Three rotating galaxies display radial gradients with higher metallicity at smaller radii, while the fourth is undergoing a merger and has an inverted gradient with lower metallicity at the center. Strong gradients in the rotating galaxies indicate that they are growing inside-out with star formation fueled by accretion of metal-poor gas at large radii. By comparing measured gradients with an appropriate comparison sample at z = 0, we demonstrate that metallicity gradients in isolated galaxies must flatten at later times. The amount of size growth inferred by the gradients is in rough agreement with direct measurements of massive galaxies. We develop a chemical evolution model to interpret these data and conclude that metallicity gradients are established by a gradient in the outflow mass loading factor, combined with radial inflow of metal-enriched gas.

We present the first rest-frame optical spectroscopic survey of a large sample of low-luminosity galaxies at high redshift (L < L*, 1.5 < z < 3.5). This population dominates the star formation density of the universe at high redshifts, yet such galaxies are normally too faint to be studied spectroscopically. We take advantage of strong gravitational lensing magnification to compile observations for a sample of 29 galaxies using modest integration times with the Keck and Palomar telescopes. Balmer emission lines confirm that the sample has a median SFR ∼ 10 M_sun yr^−1 and extends to lower SFR than has been probed by other surveys at similar redshift. We derive the metallicity, dust extinction, SFR, ionization parameter, and dynamical mass from the spectroscopic data, providing the first accurate characterization of the star-forming environment in low-luminosity galaxies at high redshift. For the first time, we directly test the proposal that the relation between galaxy stellar mass, star formation rate, and gas phase metallicity does not evolve. We find lower gas phase metallicity in the high redshift galaxies than in local sources with equivalent stellar mass and star formation rate, arguing against a time-invariant relation. While our result is preliminary and may be biased by measurement errors, this represents an important first measurement that will be further constrained by ongoing analysis of the full data set and by future observations.

We present a study of composite rest-frame ultraviolet spectra of Lyman break galaxies at z = 4 and discuss implications for the distribution of neutral outflowing gas in the circumgalactic medium. In general we find similar spectroscopic trends to those found at z = 3 by earlier surveys. In particular, absorption lines which trace neutral gas are weaker in less evolved galaxies with lower stellar masses, smaller radii, lower luminosity, less dust, and stronger Lyα emission. Typical galaxies are thus expected to have stronger Lyα emission and weaker low-ionization absorption at earlier times, and we indeed find somewhat weaker low-ionization absorption at higher redshifts. In conjunction with earlier results, we argue that the reduced low-ionization absorption is likely caused by lower covering fraction and/or velocity range of outflowing neutral gas at earlier epochs. This result has important implications for the hypothesis that early galaxies were responsible for cosmic reionization. We additionally show that fine structure emission lines are sensitive to the spatial extent of neutral gas, and demonstrate that neutral gas is concentrated at smaller galactocentric radii in higher redshift galaxies.

The results of this thesis present a coherent picture of galaxy evolution at high redshifts 2 ≲ z ≲ 4. Roughly 1/3 of massive star forming galaxies at this period are undergoing major mergers, while the rest are growing inside-out with star formation occurring in gravitationally unstable thick disks. Star formation, stellar mass, and metallicity are limited by outflows which create a circumgalactic medium of metal-enriched material. We conclude by describing some remaining open questions and prospects for improving our understanding of galaxy evolution with future observations of gravitationally lensed galaxies.

Financial equilibrium, voting procedures, and coalition structures in allocational mechanisms

This thesis is comprised of three chapters, each of which is concerned with properties of allocational mechanisms which include voting procedures as part of their operation. The theme of interaction between economic and political forces recurs in the three chapters, as described below.

Chapter One demonstrates existence of a non-controlling interest shareholders' equilibrium for a stylized one-period stock market economy with fewer securities than states of the world. The economy has two decision mechanisms: Owners vote to change firms' production plans across states, fixing shareholdings; and individuals trade shares and the current production / consumption good, fixing production plans. A shareholders' equilibrium is a production plan profile, and a shares / current good allocation stable for both mechanisms. In equilibrium, no (Kramer direction-restricted) plan revision is supported by a share-weighted majority, and there exists no Pareto superior reallocation.

Chapter Two addresses efficient management of stationary-site, fixed-budget, partisan voter registration drives. Sufficient conditions obtain for unique optimal registrar deployment within contested districts. Each census tract is assigned an expected net plurality return to registration investment index, computed from estimates of registration, partisanship, and turnout. Optimum registration intensity is a logarithmic transformation of a tract's index. These conditions are tested using a merged data set including both census variables and Los Angeles County Registrar data from several 1984 Assembly registration drives. Marginal registration spending benefits, registrar compensation, and the general campaign problem are also discussed.

The last chapter considers social decision procedures at a higher level of abstraction. Chapter Three analyzes the structure of decisive coalition families, given a quasitransitive-valued social decision procedure satisfying the universal domain and ITA axioms. By identifying those alternatives X* ⊆ X on which the Pareto principle fails, imposition in the social ranking is characterized. Every coaliton is weakly decisive for X* over X~X*, and weakly antidecisive for X~X* over X*; therefore, alternatives in X~X* are never socially ranked above X*. Repeated filtering of alternatives causing Pareto failure shows states in X^n*~X^((n+1))* are never socially ranked above X^((n+1))*. Limiting results of iterated application of the *-operator are also discussed.

Voting games with incomplete information

We examine voting situations in which individuals have incomplete information over each others' true preferences. In many respects, this work is motivated by a desire to provide a more complete understanding of so-called probabilistic voting.

Chapter 2 examines the similarities and differences between the incentives faced by politicians who seek to maximize expected vote share, expected plurality, or probability of victory in single member: single vote, simple plurality electoral systems. We find that, in general, the candidates' optimal policies in such an electoral system vary greatly depending on their objective function. We provide several examples, as well as a genericity result which states that almost all such electoral systems (with respect to the distributions of voter behavior) will exhibit different incentives for candidates who seek to maximize expected vote share and those who seek to maximize probability of victory.

In Chapter 3, we adopt a random utility maximizing framework in which individuals' preferences are subject to action-specific exogenous shocks. We show that Nash equilibria exist in voting games possessing such an information structure and in which voters and candidates are each aware that every voter's preferences are subject to such shocks. A special case of our framework is that in which voters are playing a Quantal Response Equilibrium (McKelvey and Palfrey (1995), (1998)). We then examine candidate competition in such games and show that, for sufficiently large electorates, regardless of the dimensionality of the policy space or the number of candidates, there exists a strict equilibrium at the social welfare optimum (i.e., the point which maximizes the sum of voters' utility functions). In two candidate contests we find that this equilibrium is unique.

Finally, in Chapter 4, we attempt the first steps towards a theory of equilibrium in games possessing both continuous action spaces and action-specific preference shocks. Our notion of equilibrium, Variational Response Equilibrium, is shown to exist in all games with continuous payoff functions. We discuss the similarities and differences between this notion of equilibrium and the notion of Quantal Response Equilibrium and offer possible extensions of our framework.

Awakening a sleeping giant: The riddle of Latino political participation

For some time now, the Latino voice has been gradually gaining strength in American politics, particularly in such states as California, Florida, Illinois, New York, and Texas, where large numbers of Latino immigrants have settled and large numbers of electoral votes are at stake. Yet the issues public officials in these states espouse and the laws they enact often do not coincide with the interests and preferences of Latinos. The fact that Latinos in California and elsewhere have not been able to influence the political agenda in a way that is commensurate with their numbers may reflect their failure to participate fully in the political process by first registering to vote and then consistently turning out on election day to cast their ballots.

To understand Latino voting behavior, I first examine Latino political participation in California during the ten general elections of the 1980s and 1990s, seeking to understand what percentage of the eligible Latino population registers to vote, with what political party they register, how many registered Latinos to go the polls on election day, and what factors might increase their participation in politics. To ensure that my findings are not unique to California, I also consider Latino voter registration and turnout in Texas for the five general elections of the 1990s and compare these results with my California findings.

I offer a new approach to studying Latino political participation in which I rely on county-level aggregate data, rather than on individual survey data, and employ the ecological inference method of generalized bounds. I calculate and compare Latino and white voting-age populations, registration rates, turnout rates, and party affiliation rates for California's fifty-eight counties. Then, in a secondary grouped logit analysis, I consider the factors that influence these Latino and white registration, turnout, and party affiliation rates.

I find that California Latinos register and turn out at substantially lower rates than do whites and that these rates are more volatile than those of whites. I find that Latino registration is motivated predominantly by age and education, with older and more educated Latinos being more likely to register. Motor voter legislation, which was passed to ease and simplify the registration process, has not encouraged Latino registration . I find that turnout among California's Latino voters is influenced primarily by issues, income, educational attainment, and the size of the Spanish-speaking communities in which they reside. Although language skills may be an obstacle to political participation for an individual, the number of Spanish-speaking households in a community does not encourage or discourage registration but may encourage turnout, suggesting that cultural and linguistic assimilation may not be the entire answer.

With regard to party identification, I find that Democrats can expect a steady Latino political identification rate between 50 and 60 percent, while Republicans attract 20 to 30 percent of Latino registrants. I find that education and income are the dominant factors in determining Latino political party identification, which appears to be no more volatile than that of the larger electorate.

Next, when I consider registration and turnout in Texas, I find that Latino registration rates are nearly equal to those of whites but that Texas Latino turnout rates are volatile and substantially lower than those of whites.

Low turnout rates among Latinos and the volatility of these rates may explain why Latinos in California and Texas have had little influence on the political agenda even though their numbers are large and increasing. Simply put, the voices of Latinos are little heard in the halls of government because they do not turn out consistently to cast their votes on election day.

While these findings suggest that there may not be any short-term or quick fixes to Latino participation, they also suggest that Latinos should be encouraged to participate more fully in the political process and that additional education may be one means of achieving this goal. Candidates should speak more directly to the issues that concern Latinos. Political parties should view Latinos as crossover voters rather than as potential converts. In other words, if Latinos were "a sleeping giant," they may now be a still-drowsy leviathan waiting to be wooed by either party's persuasive political messages and relevant issues.

I. The effects of variations in certain parameters upon the efficiency of in vivo hemodialysis with a Kiil dialyzer. II. Interfacial structure of concurrent air-water flow in a two-inch diameter horizontal tube.

Part I

Regression analyses are performed on in vivo hemodialysis data for the transfer of creatinine, urea, uric acid and inorganic phosphate to determine the effects of variations in certain parameters on the efficiency of dialysis with a Kiil dialyzer. In calculating the mass transfer rates across the membrane, the effects of cell-plasma mass transfer kinetics are considered. The concept of the effective permeability coefficient for the red cell membrane is introduced to account for these effects. A discussion of the consequences of neglecting cell-plasma kinetics, as has been done to date in the literature, is presented.

A physical model for the Kiil dialyzer is presented in order to calculate the available membrane area for mass transfer, the linear blood and dialysate velocities, and other variables. The equations used to determine the independent variables of the regression analyses are presented. The potential dependent variables in the analyses are discussed.

Regression analyses were carried out considering overall mass-transfer coefficients, dialysances, relative dialysances, and relative permeabilities for each substance as the dependent variables. The independent variables were linear blood velocity, linear dialysate velocity, the pressure difference across the membrane, the elapsed time of dialysis, the blood hematocrit, and the arterial plasma concentrations of each substance transferred. The resulting correlations are tabulated, presented graphically, and discussed. The implications of these correlations are discussed from the viewpoint of a research investigator and from the viewpoint of patient treatment.

Recommendations for further experimental work are presented.

Part II

The interfacial structure of concurrent air-water flow in a two-inch diameter horizontal tube in the wavy flow regime has been measured using resistance wave gages. The median water depth, r.m.s. wave height, wave frequency, extrema frequency, and wave velocity have been measured as functions of air and water flow rates. Reynolds numbers, Froude numbers, Weber numbers, and bulk velocities for each phase may be calculated from these measurements. No theory for wave formation and propagation available in the literature was sufficient to describe these results.

The water surface level distribution generally is not adequately represented as a stationary Gaussian process. Five types of deviation from the Gaussian process function were noted in this work. The presence of the tube walls and the relatively large interfacial shear stresses precludes the use of simple statistical analyses to describe the interfacial structure. A detailed study of the behavior of individual fluid elements near the interface may be necessary to describe adequately wavy two-phase flow in systems similar to the one used in this work.

Did galaxies reionize the universe?

The epoch of reionization remains one of the last uncharted eras of cosmic history, yet this time is of crucial importance, encompassing the formation of both the first galaxies and the first metals in the universe. In this thesis, I present four related projects that both characterize the abundance and properties of these first galaxies and uses follow-up observations of these galaxies to achieve one of the first observations of the neutral fraction of the intergalactic medium during the heart of the reionization era.

First, we present the results of a spectroscopic survey using the Keck telescopes targeting 6.3 < z < 8.8 star-forming galaxies. We secured observations of 19 candidates, initially selected by applying the Lyman break technique to infrared imaging data from the Wide Field Camera 3 (WFC3) onboard the Hubble Space Telescope (HST). This survey builds upon earlier work from Stark et al. (2010, 2011), which showed that star-forming galaxies at 3 < z < 6, when the universe was highly ionized, displayed a significant increase in strong Lyman alpha emission with redshift. Our work uses the LRIS and NIRSPEC instruments to search for Lyman alpha emission in candidates at a greater redshift in the observed near-infrared, in order to discern if this evolution continues, or is quenched by an increase in the neutral fraction of the intergalactic medium. Our spectroscopic observations typically reach a 5-sigma limiting sensitivity of < 50 AA. Despite expecting to detect Lyman alpha at 5-sigma in 7-8 galaxies based on our Monte Carlo simulations, we only achieve secure detections in two of 19 sources. Combining these results with a similar sample of 7 galaxies from Fontana et al. (2010), we determine that these few detections would only occur in < 1% of simulations if the intrinsic distribution was the same as that at z ~ 6. We consider other explanations for this decline, but find the most convincing explanation to be an increase in the neutral fraction of the intergalactic medium. Using theoretical models, we infer a neutral fraction of X_HI ~ 0.44 at z = 7.

Second, we characterize the abundance of star-forming galaxies at z > 6.5 again using WFC3 onboard the HST. This project conducted a detailed search for candidates both in the Hubble Ultra Deep Field as well as a number of additional wider Hubble Space Telescope surveys to construct luminosity functions at both z ~ 7 and 8, reaching 0.65 and 0.25 mag fainter than any previous surveys, respectively. With this increased depth, we achieve some of the most robust constraints on the Schechter function faint end slopes at these redshifts, finding very steep values of alpha_{z~7} = -1.87 +/- 0.18 and alpha_{z~8} = -1.94 +/- 0.23. We discuss these results in the context of cosmic reionization, and show that given reasonable assumptions about the ionizing spectra and escape fraction of ionizing photons, only half the photons needed to maintain reionization are provided by currently observable galaxies at z ~ 7-8. We show that an extension of the luminosity function down to M_{UV} = -13.0, coupled with a low level of star-formation out to higher redshift, can fit all available constraints on the ionization history of the universe.

Third, we investigate the strength of nebular emission in 3 < z < 5 star-forming galaxies. We begin by using the Infrared Array Camera (IRAC) onboard the Spitzer Space Telescope to investigate the strength of H alpha emission in a sample of 3.8 < z < 5.0 spectroscopically confirmed galaxies. We then conduct near-infrared observations of star-forming galaxies at 3 < z < 3.8 to investigate the strength of the [OIII] 4959/5007 and H beta emission lines from the ground using MOSFIRE. In both cases, we uncover near-ubiquitous strong nebular emission, and find excellent agreement between the fluxes derived using the separate methods. For a subset of 9 objects in our MOSFIRE sample that have secure Spitzer IRAC detections, we compare the emission line flux derived from the excess in the K_s band photometry to that derived from direct spectroscopy and find 7 to agree within a factor of 1.6, with only one catastrophic outlier. Finally, for a different subset for which we also have DEIMOS rest-UV spectroscopy, we compare the relative velocities of Lyman alpha and the rest-optical nebular lines which should trace the cites of star-formation. We find a median velocity offset of only v_{Ly alpha} = 149 km/s, significantly less than the 400 km/s observed for star-forming galaxies with weaker Lyman alpha emission at z = 2-3 (Steidel et al. 2010), and show that this decrease can be explained by a decrease in the neutral hydrogen column density covering the galaxy. We discuss how this will imply a lower neutral fraction for a given observed extinction of Lyman alpha when its visibility is used to probe the ionization state of the intergalactic medium.

Finally, we utilize the recent CANDELS wide-field, infra-red photometry over the GOODS-N and S fields to re-analyze the use of Lyman alpha emission to evaluate the neutrality of the intergalactic medium. With this new data, we derive accurate ultraviolet spectral slopes for a sample of 468 3 < z < 6 star-forming galaxies, already observed in the rest-UV with the Keck spectroscopic survey (Stark et al. 2010). We use a Bayesian fitting method which accurately accounts for contamination and obscuration by skylines to derive a relationship between the UV-slope of a galaxy and its intrinsic Lyman alpha equivalent width probability distribution. We then apply this data to spectroscopic surveys during the reionization era, including our own, to accurately interpret the drop in observed Lyman alpha emission. From our most recent such MOSFIRE survey, we also present evidence for the most distant galaxy confirmed through emission line spectroscopy at z = 7.62, as well as a first detection of the CIII]1907/1909 doublet at z > 7.

We conclude the thesis by exploring future prospects and summarizing the results of Robertson et al. (2013). This work synthesizes many of the measurements in this thesis, along with external constraints, to create a model of reionization that fits nearly all available constraints.

The streaming of 1.3-2.3 MeV cosmic-ray protons during periods between prompt solar particle events

The anisotropy of 1.3 - 2.3 MeV protons in interplanetary space has been measured using the Caltech Electron/Isotope Spectrometer aboard IMP-7 for 317 6-hour periods from 72/273 to 74/2. Periods dominated by prompt solar particle events are not included. The convective and diffusive anisotropies are determined from the observed anisotropy using concurrent solar wind speed measurements and observed energy spectra. The diffusive flow of particles is found to be typically toward the sun, indicating a positive radial gradient in the particle density. This anisotropy is inconsistent with previously proposed sources of low-energy proton increases seen at 1 AU which involve continual solar acceleration.

The typical properties of this new component of low-energy cosmic rays have been determine d for this period which is near solar minimum. The particles have a median intensity of 0.06 protons/ cm^(2)-sec-sr-MeV and a mean spectral index of -3.15.The amplitude of the diffusive anisotropy is approximately proportional to the solar wind speed. The rate at which particles are diffusing toward the sun is larger than the rate at which the solar wind is convecting the particles away from the sun. The 20 to 1 proton to alpha ratio typical of this new component has been reported by Mewaldt, et al. (1975b).

A propagation model with κ_(rr) assumed independent of radius and energy is used to show that the anisotropy could be due to increases similar to those found by McDonald, et al. (1975) at ~3 AU. The interplanetary Fermi-acceleration model proposed by Fisk (1976) to explain the increases seen near 3 AU is not consistent with the ~12 per cent diffusive anisotropy found.

The dependence of the diffusive anisotropy on various parameters is shown. A strong dependence of the direction of the diffusive anisotropy on the concurrently measured magnetic field direction is found, indicating a κ_⊥ less than κ_∥ to be typical for this large data set.

At Your Convenience: Facilitating Voting and Registration

This work proposes answers to methodological and substantive questions related to convenience voting. The first analytical chapter surveys the various research designs that have been proposed within this literature, and concludes that the field benefits from using all in conjunction. The next chapter uses matching to identify the relationship between disability status and political participation, and considers whether any forms of convenience voting mediate in the relationship. The final two analytical chapters examine how online voter registration, one of the most recent policy innovations, affects participation and vote share in American elections. The concluding chapter summarizes the findings presented herein, and briefly discusses the natural extensions of this work.