Events in Indonesia: exploring the limits to formal tourism trends forecasting methods in complex crisis situations

The desire to know the future is as old as humanity. For the tourism industry the demand for accurate foretelling of the future course of events is a task that consumes considerable energy and is of great significance to investors. This paper examines the issue of forecasting by comparing forecasts of inbound tourism made prior to the political and economic crises that engulfed Indonesia from 1997 onwards with actual arrival figures. The paper finds that current methods of forecasting are not able to cope with unexpected crises and other disasters and that alternative methods need to be examined including scenarios, political risk and application of chaos theory. The paper outlines a framework for classifying shocks according to a scale of severity, probability, type of event, level of certainty and suggested forecasting tools for each scale of shock. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

US hegemony and Southeast Asia - The impact of, and limits to, US power and influence

The United States has exerted a major influence on Southeast Asia, especially since World War II. As both a promoter of neoliberal reform and as the key strategic actor in the wider East Asian region, the impact of U.S. power has been immense. But both the Asian economic crisis and its aftermath, and the more recent war on terror, have highlighted the contradictory impact of evolving U.S. foreign policy and intervention in the region. At both an elite and a mass level there is evidence of resentment about, and hostility toward, U.S. policy and its perceived negative effects. This article outlines how U.S. foreign policy has impacted the region in the economic, political, and security spheres, and argues that not only has it frequently not achieved its goals, but it may in fact be undermining both America's long-term hegemonic position in the region and any prospects for political liberalization.

A reassessment of genetic limits to evolutionary change

An absence of genetic variance in traits under selection is perhaps the oldest explanation for a limit to evolutionary change, but has also been the most easily dismissed. We review a range of theoretical and empirical results covering single traits to more complex multivariate systems, and show that an absence of genetic variance may be more common than is currently appreciated. From a single-trait perspective, we highlight that it is becoming clear that some trait types do not display significant levels of genetic variation, and we raise the possibility that species with restricted ranges may differ qualitatively from more widespread species in levels of genetic variance in ecologically important traits. A common misconception in many life-history studies is that a lack of genetic variance in single traits, and genetic constraints as a consequence of bivariate genetic correlations, are different causes of selection limits. We detail how interpretations of bivariate patterns are unlikely to demonstrate genetic limits to selection in many cases. We advocate a multivariate definition of genetic constraints that emphasizes the presence (or otherwise) of genetic variance in the multivariate direction of selection. For multitrait systems, recent results using longer term studies of organisms, in which more is understood concerning what traits may be under selection, have indicated that selection may exhaust genetic variance, resulting in a limit to the selection response.

The Paradoxes of Paramountcy: Regional Rivalries and the Dynamics of American Hegemony in East Asia

It has become increasingly commonplace to describe the United States as hegemonic. And yet, despite America's dominant position at a number of levels strategic, political-economic and ideational, there are plainly limits to US hegemony. These limits and the enduring strengths of American hegemony are revealed quite clearly in East Asia. This paper critically assesses a number of theories of hegemony, and argues that the concept continues to provide a useful way of conceptualising America's evolving relationship with East Asia. Theories of hegemony can, with appropriate caveats, also help us to understand the limits to Chinese and Japanese power in the region; two countries that are routinely cited as potential hegemonic rivals

Optimal cloning for finite distributions of coherent states

We derive optimal cloning limits for finite Gaussian distributions of coherent states and describe techniques for achieving them. We discuss the relation of these limits to state estimation and the no-cloning limit in teleportation. A qualitatively different cloning limit is derived for a single-quadrature Gaussian quantum cloner.

Many-body quantum dynamics of polarization squeezing in optical fibers

We report new experiments that test quantum dynamical predictions of polarization squeezing for ultrashort photonic pulses in a birefringent fiber, including all relevant dissipative effects. This exponentially complex many-body problem is solved by means of a stochastic phase-space method. The squeezing is calculated and compared to experimental data, resulting in excellent quantitative agreement. From the simulations, we identify the physical limits to quantum noise reduction in optical fibers. The research represents a significant experimental test of first-principles time-domain quantum dynamics in a one-dimensional interacting Bose gas coupled to dissipative reservoirs.

Pseudo-messenger RNA: Phantoms of the transcriptome

The mammalian transcriptome harbours shadowy entities that resist classification and analysis. In analogy with pseudogenes, we define pseudo-messenger RNA to be RNA molecules that resemble protein- coding mRNA, but cannot encode full-length proteins owing to disruptions of the reading frame. Using a rigorous computational pipeline, which rules out sequencing errors, we identify 10,679 pseudo - messenger RNAs ( approximately half of which are transposonassociated) among the 102,801 FANTOM3 mouse cDNAs: just over 10% of the FANTOM3 transcriptome. These comprise not only transcribed pseudogenes, but also disrupted splice variants of otherwise protein- coding genes. Some may encode truncated proteins, only a minority of which appear subject to nonsense- mediated decay. The presence of an excess of transcripts whose only disruptions are opal stop codons suggests that there are more selenoproteins than currently estimated. We also describe compensatory frameshifts, where a segment of the gene has changed frame but remains translatable. In summary, we survey a large class of non- standard but potentially functional transcripts that are likely to encode genetic information and effect biological processes in novel ways. Many of these transcripts do not correspond cleanly to any identifiable object in the genome, implying fundamental limits to the goal of annotating all functional elements at the genome sequence level.