8 resultados para Limits to arbitrage

em CaltechTHESIS


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While some of the deepest results in nature are those that give explicit bounds between important physical quantities, some of the most intriguing and celebrated of such bounds come from fields where there is still a great deal of disagreement and confusion regarding even the most fundamental aspects of the theories. For example, in quantum mechanics, there is still no complete consensus as to whether the limitations associated with Heisenberg's Uncertainty Principle derive from an inherent randomness in physics, or rather from limitations in the measurement process itself, resulting from phenomena like back action. Likewise, the second law of thermodynamics makes a statement regarding the increase in entropy of closed systems, yet the theory itself has neither a universally-accepted definition of equilibrium, nor an adequate explanation of how a system with underlying microscopically Hamiltonian dynamics (reversible) settles into a fixed distribution.

Motivated by these physical theories, and perhaps their inconsistencies, in this thesis we use dynamical systems theory to investigate how the very simplest of systems, even with no physical constraints, are characterized by bounds that give limits to the ability to make measurements on them. Using an existing interpretation, we start by examining how dissipative systems can be viewed as high-dimensional lossless systems, and how taking this view necessarily implies the existence of a noise process that results from the uncertainty in the initial system state. This fluctuation-dissipation result plays a central role in a measurement model that we examine, in particular describing how noise is inevitably injected into a system during a measurement, noise that can be viewed as originating either from the randomness of the many degrees of freedom of the measurement device, or of the environment. This noise constitutes one component of measurement back action, and ultimately imposes limits on measurement uncertainty. Depending on the assumptions we make about active devices, and their limitations, this back action can be offset to varying degrees via control. It turns out that using active devices to reduce measurement back action leads to estimation problems that have non-zero uncertainty lower bounds, the most interesting of which arise when the observed system is lossless. One such lower bound, a main contribution of this work, can be viewed as a classical version of a Heisenberg uncertainty relation between the system's position and momentum. We finally also revisit the murky question of how macroscopic dissipation appears from lossless dynamics, and propose alternative approaches for framing the question using existing systematic methods of model reduction.

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Over the last several decades there have been significant advances in the study and understanding of light behavior in nanoscale geometries. Entire fields such as those based on photonic crystals, plasmonics and metamaterials have been developed, accelerating the growth of knowledge related to nanoscale light manipulation. Coupled with recent interest in cheap, reliable renewable energy, a new field has blossomed, that of nanophotonic solar cells.

In this thesis, we examine important properties of thin-film solar cells from a nanophotonics perspective. We identify key differences between nanophotonic devices and traditional, thick solar cells. We propose a new way of understanding and describing limits to light trapping and show that certain nanophotonic solar cell designs can have light trapping limits above the so called ray-optic or ergodic limit. We propose that a necessary requisite to exceed the traditional light trapping limit is that the active region of the solar cell must possess a local density of optical states (LDOS) higher than that of the corresponding, bulk material. Additionally, we show that in addition to having an increased density of states, the absorber must have an appropriate incoupling mechanism to transfer light from free space into the optical modes of the device. We outline a portfolio of new solar cell designs that have potential to exceed the traditional light trapping limit and numerically validate our predictions for select cases.

We emphasize the importance of thinking about light trapping in terms of maximizing the optical modes of the device and efficiently coupling light into them from free space. To further explore these two concepts, we optimize patterns of superlattices of air holes in thin slabs of Si and show that by adding a roughened incoupling layer the total absorbed current can be increased synergistically. We suggest that the addition of a random scattering surface to a periodic patterning can increase incoupling by lifting the constraint of selective mode occupation associated with periodic systems.

Lastly, through experiment and simulation, we investigate a potential high efficiency solar cell architecture that can be improved with the nanophotonic light trapping concepts described in this thesis. Optically thin GaAs solar cells are prepared by the epitaxial liftoff process by removal from their growth substrate and addition of a metallic back reflector. A process of depositing large area nano patterns on the surface of the cells is developed using nano imprint lithography and implemented on the thin GaAs cells.

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In Part I of this thesis, a new magnetic spectrometer experiment which measured the β spectrum of ^(35)S is described. New limits on heavy neutrino emission in nuclear β decay were set, for a heavy neutrino mass range between 12 and 22 keV. In particular, this measurement rejects the hypothesis that a 17 keV neutrino is emitted, with sin^2 θ = 0.0085, at the 6δ statistical level. In addition, an auxiliary experiment was performed, in which an artificial kink was induced in the β spectrum by means of an absorber foil which masked a fraction of the source area. In this measurement, the sensitivity of the magnetic spectrometer to the spectral features of heavy neutrino emission was demonstrated.

In Part II, a measurement of the neutron spallation yield and multiplicity by the Cosmic-ray Underground Background Experiment is described. The production of fast neutrons by muons was investigated at an underground depth of 20 meters water equivalent, with a 200 liter detector filled with 0.09% Gd-loaded liquid scintillator. We measured a neutron production yield of (3.4 ± 0.7) x 10^(-5) neutrons per muon-g/cm^2, in agreement with other experiments. A single-to-double neutron multiplicity ratio of 4:1 was observed. In addition, stopped π^+ decays to µ^+ and then e^+ were observed as was the associated production of pions and neutrons, by the muon spallation interaction. It was seen that practically all of the π^+ produced by muons were also accompanied by at least one neutron. These measurements serve as the basis for neutron background estimates for the San Onofre neutrino detector.

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The scalability of CMOS technology has driven computation into a diverse range of applications across the power consumption, performance and size spectra. Communication is a necessary adjunct to computation, and whether this is to push data from node-to-node in a high-performance computing cluster or from the receiver of wireless link to a neural stimulator in a biomedical implant, interconnect can take up a significant portion of the overall system power budget. Although a single interconnect methodology cannot address such a broad range of systems efficiently, there are a number of key design concepts that enable good interconnect design in the age of highly-scaled CMOS: an emphasis on highly-digital approaches to solving ‘analog’ problems, hardware sharing between links as well as between different functions (such as equalization and synchronization) in the same link, and adaptive hardware that changes its operating parameters to mitigate not only variation in the fabrication of the link, but also link conditions that change over time. These concepts are demonstrated through the use of two design examples, at the extremes of the power and performance spectra.

A novel all-digital clock and data recovery technique for high-performance, high density interconnect has been developed. Two independently adjustable clock phases are generated from a delay line calibrated to 2 UI. One clock phase is placed in the middle of the eye to recover the data, while the other is swept across the delay line. The samples produced by the two clocks are compared to generate eye information, which is used to determine the best phase for data recovery. The functions of the two clocks are swapped after the data phase is updated; this ping-pong action allows an infinite delay range without the use of a PLL or DLL. The scheme's generalized sampling and retiming architecture is used in a sharing technique that saves power and area in high-density interconnect. The eye information generated is also useful for tuning an adaptive equalizer, circumventing the need for dedicated adaptation hardware.

On the other side of the performance/power spectra, a capacitive proximity interconnect has been developed to support 3D integration of biomedical implants. In order to integrate more functionality while staying within size limits, implant electronics can be embedded onto a foldable parylene (‘origami’) substrate. Many of the ICs in an origami implant will be placed face-to-face with each other, so wireless proximity interconnect can be used to increase communication density while decreasing implant size, as well as facilitate a modular approach to implant design, where pre-fabricated parylene-and-IC modules are assembled together on-demand to make custom implants. Such an interconnect needs to be able to sense and adapt to changes in alignment. The proposed array uses a TDC-like structure to realize both communication and alignment sensing within the same set of plates, increasing communication density and eliminating the need to infer link quality from a separate alignment block. In order to distinguish the communication plates from the nearby ground plane, a stimulus is applied to the transmitter plate, which is rectified at the receiver to bias a delay generation block. This delay is in turn converted into a digital word using a TDC, providing alignment information.

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Despite the complexity of biological networks, we find that certain common architectures govern network structures. These architectures impose fundamental constraints on system performance and create tradeoffs that the system must balance in the face of uncertainty in the environment. This means that while a system may be optimized for a specific function through evolution, the optimal achievable state must follow these constraints. One such constraining architecture is autocatalysis, as seen in many biological networks including glycolysis and ribosomal protein synthesis. Using a minimal model, we show that ATP autocatalysis in glycolysis imposes stability and performance constraints and that the experimentally well-studied glycolytic oscillations are in fact a consequence of a tradeoff between error minimization and stability. We also show that additional complexity in the network results in increased robustness. Ribosome synthesis is also autocatalytic where ribosomes must be used to make more ribosomal proteins. When ribosomes have higher protein content, the autocatalysis is increased. We show that this autocatalysis destabilizes the system, slows down response, and also constrains the system’s performance. On a larger scale, transcriptional regulation of whole organisms also follows architectural constraints and this can be seen in the differences between bacterial and yeast transcription networks. We show that the degree distributions of bacterial transcription network follow a power law distribution while the yeast network follows an exponential distribution. We then explored the evolutionary models that have previously been proposed and show that neither the preferential linking model nor the duplication-divergence model of network evolution generates the power-law, hierarchical structure found in bacteria. However, in real biological systems, the generation of new nodes occurs through both duplication and horizontal gene transfers, and we show that a biologically reasonable combination of the two mechanisms generates the desired network.

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In a probabilistic assessment of the performance of structures subjected to uncertain environmental loads such as earthquakes, an important problem is to determine the probability that the structural response exceeds some specified limits within a given duration of interest. This problem is known as the first excursion problem, and it has been a challenging problem in the theory of stochastic dynamics and reliability analysis. In spite of the enormous amount of attention the problem has received, there is no procedure available for its general solution, especially for engineering problems of interest where the complexity of the system is large and the failure probability is small.

The application of simulation methods to solving the first excursion problem is investigated in this dissertation, with the objective of assessing the probabilistic performance of structures subjected to uncertain earthquake excitations modeled by stochastic processes. From a simulation perspective, the major difficulty in the first excursion problem comes from the large number of uncertain parameters often encountered in the stochastic description of the excitation. Existing simulation tools are examined, with special regard to their applicability in problems with a large number of uncertain parameters. Two efficient simulation methods are developed to solve the first excursion problem. The first method is developed specifically for linear dynamical systems, and it is found to be extremely efficient compared to existing techniques. The second method is more robust to the type of problem, and it is applicable to general dynamical systems. It is efficient for estimating small failure probabilities because the computational effort grows at a much slower rate with decreasing failure probability than standard Monte Carlo simulation. The simulation methods are applied to assess the probabilistic performance of structures subjected to uncertain earthquake excitation. Failure analysis is also carried out using the samples generated during simulation, which provide insight into the probable scenarios that will occur given that a structure fails.

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Spontaneous emission into the lasing mode fundamentally limits laser linewidths. Reducing cavity losses provides two benefits to linewidth: (1) fewer excited carriers are needed to reach threshold, resulting in less phase-corrupting spontaneous emission into the laser mode, and (2) more photons are stored in the laser cavity, such that each individual spontaneous emission event disturbs the phase of the field less. Strong optical absorption in III-V materials causes high losses, preventing currently-available semiconductor lasers from achieving ultra-narrow linewidths. This absorption is a natural consequence of the compromise between efficient electrical and efficient optical performance in a semiconductor laser. Some of the III-V layers must be heavily doped in order to funnel excited carriers into the active region, which has the side effect of making the material strongly absorbing.

This thesis presents a new technique, called modal engineering, to remove modal energy from the lossy region and store it in an adjacent low-loss material, thereby reducing overall optical absorption. A quantum mechanical analysis of modal engineering shows that modal gain and spontaneous emission rate into the laser mode are both proportional to the normalized intensity of that mode at the active region. If optical absorption near the active region dominates the total losses of the laser cavity, shifting modal energy from the lossy region to the low-loss region will reduce modal gain, total loss, and the spontaneous emission rate into the mode by the same factor, so that linewidth decreases while the threshold inversion remains constant. The total spontaneous emission rate into all other modes is unchanged.

Modal engineering is demonstrated using the Si/III-V platform, in which light is generated in the III-V material and stored in the low-loss silicon material. The silicon is patterned as a high-Q resonator to minimize all sources of loss. Fabricated lasers employing modal engineering to concentrate light in silicon demonstrate linewidths at least 5 times smaller than lasers without modal engineering at the same pump level above threshold, while maintaining the same thresholds.

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In the measurement of the Higgs Boson decaying into two photons the parametrization of an appropriate background model is essential for fitting the Higgs signal mass peak over a continuous background. This diphoton background modeling is crucial in the statistical process of calculating exclusion limits and the significance of observations in comparison to a background-only hypothesis. It is therefore ideal to obtain knowledge of the physical shape for the background mass distribution as the use of an improper function can lead to biases in the observed limits. Using an Information-Theoretic (I-T) approach for valid inference we apply Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) as a measure of the separation for a fitting model from the data. We then implement a multi-model inference ranking method to build a fit-model that closest represents the Standard Model background in 2013 diphoton data recorded by the Compact Muon Solenoid (CMS) experiment at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC). Potential applications and extensions of this model-selection technique are discussed with reference to CMS detector performance measurements as well as in potential physics analyses at future detectors.