Long range forecasts of the numbers of Helicoverpa punctigera and H-armigera (Lepidoptera : Noctuidae) in Australia using the Southern Oscillation Index and the Sea Surface Temperature

The use of long-term forecasts of pest pressure is central to better pest management. We relate the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) to long-term light-trap catches of the two key moth pests of Australian agriculture, Helicoverpa punctigera (Wallengren) and H. armigera (Hubner), at Narrabri, New South Wales over 11 years, and for H. punctigera only at Turretfield, South Australia over 22 years. At Narrabri, the size of the first spring generation of both species was significantly correlated with the SOI in certain months, sometimes up to 15 months before the date of trapping. Differences in the SOI and SST between significant months were used to build composite variables in multiple regressions which gave fitted values of the trap catches to less than 25% of the observed values. The regressions suggested that useful forecasts of both species could be made 6-15 months ahead. The influence of the two weather variables on trap catches of H. punctigera at Turretfield were not as strong as at Narrabri, probably because the SOI was not as strongly related to rainfall in southern Australia as it is in eastern Australia. The best fits were again given by multiple regressions with SOI plus SST variables, to within 40% of the observed values. The reliability of both variables as predictors of moth numbers may be limited by the lack of stability in the SOI-rainfall correlation over the historical record. As no other data set is available to test the regressions, they can only be tested by future use. The use of long-term forecasts in pest management is discussed, and preliminary analyses of other long sets of insect numbers suggest that the Southern Oscillation Index may be a useful predictor of insect numbers in other parts of the world.

Patents and the CGIAR system of International Agricultural Research Centres' germplasm collections under the International Treaty on Plant Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture

A key controversy in negotiating the International Treaty on Plant Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture, and the likely long-term effectiveness of the agreement, is the way in which the intellectual property provisions are interpreted and applied to the key genetic resources forming the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) system of International Agricultural Research Centres' (IARC) collections. This paper reviews the intellectual property provisions in the treaty and examines the likely consequences from patenting under the Patents Act 1990 over materials derived from these collections. The consequence is argued to be significant and, over time, these practices are likely to deplete the usefulness of these collections and undermine the relevance of the treaty. The paper concludes that Australia's interests might best be served by arguing that access to these collections, and the other materials under the treaty, be subject to a non-exclusive, royalty free licence for any use of the derived materials to develop useful new plant varieties.

Surface reflectance properties of Antarctic moss and their relationship to plant species, pigment composition and photosynthetic function

In this study the variations in surface reflectance properties and pigment concentrations of Antarctic moss over species, sites, microtopography and with water content were investigated. It was found that species had significantly different surface reflectance properties, particularly in the region of the red edge (approximately 700 nm), but this did not correlate strongly with pigment concentrations. Surface reflectance of moss also varied in the visible region and in the characteristics of the red edge over different sites. Reflectance parameters, such as the photochemical reflectance index (PRI) and cold hard band were useful discriminators of site, microtopographic position and water content. The PRI was correlated both with the concentrations of active xanthophyll-cycle pigments and the photosynthetic light use efficiency, F-v/F-m, measured using chlorophyll fluorescence. Water content of moss strongly influenced the amplitude and position of the red-edge as well as the PRI, and may be responsible for observed differences in reflectance properties for different species and sites. All moss showed sustained high levels of photoprotective xanthophyll pigments, especially at exposed sites, indicating moss is experiencing continual high levels of photochemical stress.

Smoking and relative body weight: An international perspective from the WHO MONICA project

Study objective-To investigate the magnitude and consistency of the associations between smoking and body mass index (BMI) in different populations. Design-A cross sectional study. Setting and participants-About 69000 men and women aged 35-64 years from 42 populations participating in the first WHO MONICA survey in the early and mid 1980s. Main restults-Compared to never smokers, regular smokers had significantly (p < 0.05) lower median BMI in 20 (men) and 30 (women) out of 42 populations (range -2.9 to 0.5kg/m(2)). There was no population in which smokers had a significantly higher BMI than never smokers. Among men, the association between leanness and smoking was less apparent in populations with relatively low proportions of regular smokers and high proportions of ex-smokers. Ex-smokers had significantly higher BMI than never smokers in 10 of the male populations but in women no consistent pattern was observed. Adjustment for socioeconomic status did not affect these results. Conclusions-Although in most populations the association between smoking and BMI is similar, the magnitude of this association may be affected by the proportions of smokers and ex-smokers in these populations.