Modelling the Distribution of Ischaemic Stroke-Specific Survival Time Using an EM-based Mixture Approach with Random Effects Adjustment

A two-component survival mixture model is proposed to analyse a set of ischaemic stroke-specific mortality data. The survival experience of stroke patients after index stroke may be described by a subpopulation of patients in the acute condition and another subpopulation of patients in the chronic phase. To adjust for the inherent correlation of observations due to random hospital effects, a mixture model of two survival functions with random effects is formulated. Assuming a Weibull hazard in both components, an EM algorithm is developed for the estimation of fixed effect parameters and variance components. A simulation study is conducted to assess the performance of the two-component survival mixture model estimators. Simulation results confirm the applicability of the proposed model in a small sample setting. Copyright (C) 2004 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

Long-term survivor mixture model with random effects: application to a multi-centre clinical trial of carcinoma

A mixture model incorporating long-term survivors has been adopted in the field of biostatistics where some individuals may never experience the failure event under study. The surviving fractions may be considered as cured. In most applications, the survival times are assumed to be independent. However, when the survival data are obtained from a multi-centre clinical trial, it is conceived that the environ mental conditions and facilities shared within clinic affects the proportion cured as well as the failure risk for the uncured individuals. It necessitates a long-term survivor mixture model with random effects. In this paper, the long-term survivor mixture model is extended for the analysis of multivariate failure time data using the generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) approach. The proposed model is applied to analyse a numerical data set from a multi-centre clinical trial of carcinoma as an illustration. Some simulation experiments are performed to assess the applicability of the model based on the average biases of the estimates formed. Copyright (C) 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Inflammation suppressor genes: please switch out all the lights

An effective immune system requires rapid and appropriate activation of inflammatory mechanisms but equally rapid and effective resolution of the inflammatory state. A review of the canonical host response to gram-negative bacteria, the lipopolysaccharide-Toll-like receptor 4 signaling cascade, highlights the induction of repressors that act at each step of the activation process. These inflammation suppressor genes are characterized by their induction in response to pathogen, typically late in the macrophage activation program, and include an expanding class of dominant-negative proteins derived from alternate splicing of common signaling components. Despite the expanse of anti-inflammatory mechanisms available to an activated macrophage, the frailty of this system is apparent in the large numbers of genes implicated in chronic inflammatory diseases. This apparent lack of redundancy between inflammation suppressor genes is discussed with regard to evolutionary benefits in generating a heterogeneous population of immune cells and consequential robustness in defense against new and evolving pathogens.

Supervised stationary cycling versus supervised treadmill walking for patients with intermittent claudication: Preliminary results

Introduction: Walking programmes are recommended as part of the initial treatment for intermittent claudication (IC). However, for many patients factors such as frailty, the severe leg discomfort associated with walking and safety concerns about exercising in public areas reduce compliance to such prescription. Thus, there is a need to identify a mode of exercise that provides the same benefits as regular walking while also offering convenience and comfort for these patients. The present study aims to provide evidence for the first time of the efficacy of a supervised cycle training programme compared with a conventional walking programme for the treatment of IC. Methods: Thus far 33 patients have been randomized to: a treadmill-training group (n = 12); a cycle-training group (n = 11); or a control group (n = 10). Training groups participated in three sessions of supervised training per week for a period of 6 weeks. Control patients received no experimental intervention. Maximal incremental treadmill testing was performed at baseline and after the 6 weeks of training. Measures included pain-free (PFWT) and maximal walking time (MWT), continuous heart rate and gas-analysis recording, and ankle-brachial index assessment. Results: In the treadmill trained group MWT increased significantly from 1016.7 523.7 to 1255.2 432.2 s (P < 0.05). MWT tended to increase with cycle training (848.72 333.18 to 939.54 350.35 s, P = 0.14), and remained unchanged in the control group (1555.1 683.23 to 1534.7 689.87 s). For PFWT, there was a non-significant increase in the treadmill-training group from 414.4 262.3 to 592.9 381.9 s, while both the cycle training and control groups displayed no significant change in this time (226.7 147.1 s to 192.3 56.8 and 499.4 503.7 s to 466.0 526.1 s, respectively). Conclusions: These preliminary results might suggest that, unlike treadmill walking, cycling has no clear effect on walking performance in patients with IC. Thus the current recommendations promoting walking based programmes appear appropriate. The present study was funded by the National Heart Foundation of Australia.