Statistical modeling and projections of lung cancer mortality in 4 industrialized countries

The purpose of this work was to model lung cancer mortality as a function of past exposure to tobacco and to forecast age-sex-specific lung cancer mortality rates. A 3-factor age-period-cohort (APC) model, in which the period variable is replaced by the product of average tar content and adult tobacco consumption per capita, was estimated for the US, UK, Canada and Australia by the maximum likelihood method. Age- and sex-specific tobacco consumption was estimated from historical data on smoking prevalence and total tobacco consumption. Lung cancer mortality was derived from vital registration records. Future tobacco consumption, tar content and the cohort parameter were projected by autoregressive moving average (ARIMA) estimation. The optimal exposure variable was found to be the product of average tar content and adult cigarette consumption per capita, lagged for 2530 years for both males and females in all 4 countries. The coefficient of the product of average tar content and tobacco consumption per capita differs by age and sex. In all models, there was a statistically significant difference in the coefficient of the period variable by sex. In all countries, male age-standardized lung cancer mortality rates peaked in the 1980s and declined thereafter. Female mortality rates are projected to peak in the first decade of this century. The multiplicative models of age, tobacco exposure and cohort fit the observed data between 1950 and 1999 reasonably well, and time-series models yield plausible past trends of relevant variables. Despite a significant reduction in tobacco consumption and average tar content of cigarettes sold over the past few decades, the effect on lung cancer mortality is affected by the time lag between exposure and established disease. As a result, the burden of lung cancer among females is only just reaching, or soon will reach, its peak but has been declining for I to 2 decades in men. Future sex differences in lung cancer mortality are likely to be greater in North America than Australia and the UK due to differences in exposure patterns between the sexes. (c) 2005 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Determining the effective dimensionality of the genetic variance-covariance matrix

Determining the dimensionality of G provides an important perspective on the genetic basis of a multivariate suite of traits. Since the introduction of Fisher's geometric model, the number of genetically independent traits underlying a set of functionally related phenotypic traits has been recognized as an important factor influencing the response to selection. Here, we show how the effective dimensionality of G can be established, using a method for the determination of the dimensionality of the effect space from a multivariate general linear model introduced by AMEMIYA (1985). We compare this approach with two other available methods, factor-analytic modeling and bootstrapping, using a half-sib experiment that estimated G for eight cuticular hydrocarbons of Drosophila serrata. In our example, eight pheromone traits were shown to be adequately represented by only two underlying genetic dimensions by Amemiya's approach and factor-analytic modeling of the covariance structure at the sire level. In, contrast, bootstrapping identified four dimensions with significant genetic variance. A simulation study indicated that while the performance of Amemiya's method was more sensitive to power constraints, it performed as well or better than factor-analytic modeling in correctly identifying the original genetic dimensions at moderate to high levels of heritability. The bootstrap approach consistently overestimated the number of dimensions in all cases and performed less well than Amemiya's method at subspace recovery.

Paternal age as a risk factor for psychosis and schizophrenia: Findings from Denmark, Sweden and Australia

The offspringof older fathers have an increased risk of various disorders that may be due to the accumulation of DNA mutations during spermatogenesis. Previous studies have suggested increased paternal age may be a risk factor for schizophrenia. The aim of the current study was to examine paternal age as a risk factor for schizophrenia andror psychosis. We used data from three sources: a population-based cohort studyŽDenmark., and two case-control studiesŽSweden and Australia.. In the Danish and Australian studies, we examined both psychosis and schizophrenia. In the Swedish study we examined psychosis only. After controllingfor the effect of maternal age, increased paternal age was significantly associated with increased risk of both psychosis and schizophrenia in the Danish study and of psychosis in the Swedish study. The Australian study found no association between paternal age and risk of psychosis or schizophrenia. In all three studies the relationship between paternal age and risk of disorder in the offspring was AUB-shaped. In addition to an increased risk for the offspringof older father Ž)35 years., there was a non-significant increase for the offspringof fathers aged less than 20 years. The possible role of paternally derived DNA mutations andror other psychosocial factors associated with older paternal age warrants further research. The ‘U’-shaped relationship suggests that factors other than DNA mutations may warrant consideration in this research. The Stanley Foundation supported this project.

Association of tumor necrosis factor-alpha polymorphisms and ozone-induced change in lung function

Ozone is a major air pollutant with adverse health effects which exhibit marked inter-individual variability. In mice, regions of genetic linkage with ozone-induced lung injury include the tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF), lymphotoxin-alpha (LTA), Toll-like receptor 4 (TLR4), superoxide dismutase (SOD2), and glutathione peroxidase (GPX1) genes. We genotyped polymorphisms in these genes in 51 individuals who had undergone ozone challenge. Mean change in FEV1 with ozone challenge, as a percentage of baseline, was -3% in TNF -308G/A or A/A individuals, compared with -9% in G/G individuals (p = 0.024). When considering TNF haplotypes, the smallest change in FEV1 with ozone exposure was associated with the TNF haplotype comprising LTA +252G/TNF -1031T/TNF -308A/TNF -238G. This association remained statistically significant after correction for age, sex, disease, and ozone concentration (p = 0.047). SOD2 or GPX1 genotypes were not associated with lung function, and the TLR4 polymorphism was too infrequent to analyze. The results of this study support TNF as a genetic factor for susceptibility to ozone-induced changes in lung function in humans, and has potential implications for stratifying health risks of air pollution.

Expression of activated mutants of the human interleukin-3/interleukin-5 granulocyte-macrophage colony-stimulating factor receptor common beta subunit in primary hematopoietic cells induces factor-independent proliferation and differentiation

To date, several activating mutations have been discovered in the common signal-transducing subunit (h beta c) of the receptors for human granulocyte-macrophage colony-stimulating factor, interleukin-3, and interleukin-5. Two of these, Fl Delta and 1374N, result in a 37 amino acid duplication and a single amino acid substitution in the extracellular domain of h beta c, respectively. A third, V449E, results in a single amino acid substitution in the transmembrane domain, Previous studies comparing the activity of these mutants in different hematopoietic cell lines imply that the transmembrane and extracellular mutations act by different mechanisms and suggest the requirement for cell type-specific molecules in signalling. To characterize the ability of these mutant hpc subunits to mediate growth and differentiation of primary cells and hence investigate their oncogenic potential, we have expressed all three mutants in primary murine hematopoietic cells using retroviral transduction. It is shown that, whereas expression of either extracellular hpc mutant confers factor-independent proliferation and differentiation on cells of the neutrophil and monocyte lineages only, expression of the transmembrane mutant does so on these lineages as well as the eosinophil, basophil, megakaryocyte, and erythroid lineages, Factor-independent myeloid precursors expressing the transmembrane mutant display extended proliferation in liquid culture and in some cases yielded immortalized cell lines. (C) 1997 by The American Society of Hematology.

Melanocortin-1 receptor genotype is a risk factor for basal and squamous cell carcinoma

MC1R gene variants have previously been associated with red hair and fair skin color, moreover skin ultraviolet sensitivity and a strong association with melanoma has been demonstrated for three variant alleles that are active in influencing pigmentation: Arg151Cys, Arg160Trp, and Asp294His. This study has confirmed these pigmentary associations with MC1R genotype in a collection of 220 individuals drawn from the Nambour community in Queensland, Australia, 111 of whom were at high risk and 109 at low risk of basal cell squamous cell carcinoma. Comparative allele frequencies for nine MC1R variants that have been reported in the Caucasian population were determined for these two groups, and an association between prevalence of basal cell carcinoma, squamous cell carcinoma, solar keratosis and the same three active MC1R variant alleles was demonstrated [odds ratio=3.15 95% CI (1.7, 5.82)]. Three other commonly occurring variant alleles: Val60Leu, Val92Met, and Arg163Gln were identified as having a minimal impact on pigmentation phenotype as well as basal cell carcinoma and squamous cell carcinoma risk. A significant heterozygote effect was demonstrated where individuals carrying a single MC1R variant allele were more likely to have fair and sun sensitive skin as well as carriage of a solar lesion when compared with those individuals with a consensus MC1R genotype. After adjusting for the effects of pigmentation on the association between MC1R variant alleles and basal cell carcinoma and squamous cell carcinoma risk, the association persisted, confirming that presence of at least one variant allele remains informative in terms of predicting risk for developing a solar-induced skin lesion beyond that information gained through observation of pigmentation phenotype.

Nerve growth factor stimulates proliferation and survival of human breast cancer cells through two distinct signaling pathways

We show here that the neurotrophin nerve growth factor (NGF), which has been shown to be a mitogen for breast cancer cells, also stimulates cell survival through a distinct signaling pathway. Breast cancer cell lines (MCF-7, T47-D, BT-20, and MDA-MB-231) were found to express both types of NGF receptors: p140(trkA) and p75(NTR). The two other tyrosine kinase receptors for neurotrophins, TrkB and TrkC, were not expressed. The mitogenic effect of NGF on breast cancer cells required the tyrosine kinase activity of p140(trkA) as well as the mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK) cascade, but was independent of p75(NTR). I, contrast, the anti-apoptotic effect of NGF (studied using the ceramide analogue C2) required p75(NTR) as well as the activation of the transcription factor NF-kB, but neither p140(trkA) nor MAPK was necessary. Other neurotrophins (BDNF, NT-3, NT-4/5) also induced cell survival, although not proliferation, emphasizing the importance of p75(NTR) in NGF-mediated survival. Both the pharmacological NF-KB inhibitor SN50, and cell transfection with IkBm, resulted in a diminution of NGF anti-apoptotic effect. These data show that two distinct signaling pathways are required for NGF activity and confirm the roles played by p75(NTR) and NF-kappaB in the activation of the survival pathway in breast cancer cells.

Dopant extraction from scanning capacitance microscopy measurements of p-n junctions using combined inverse modeling and forward simulation

This article proposes a more accurate approach to dopant extraction using combined inverse modeling and forward simulation of scanning capacitance microscopy (SCM) measurements on p-n junctions. The approach takes into account the essential physics of minority carrier response to the SCM probe tip in the presence of lateral electric fields due to a p-n junction. The effects of oxide fixed charge and interface state densities in the grown oxide layer on the p-n junction samples were considered in the proposed method. The extracted metallurgical and electrical junctions were compared to the apparent electrical junction obtained from SCM measurements. (C) 2002 American Institute of Physics.

Vibration instability in rolling mills: Modeling and experimental results

Models for the occurrence of the vibrational instability during rolling known as third octave chatter are presented and discussed. An analysis of rolling mill chatter was performed for the purpose of identifying characteristics of the vibrations and to determine any dependency on the rolling schedule. In particular, a stability criterion for the critical rolling speed is used to predict the maximum rolling speed without chatter instability on schedules from a 5 stand tandem mill rolling thin steel product. The results correlate well with measurements of critical speed occurring on the mill using a vibration monitor: This research provides significant insights into the chatter phenomena and has been used to investigate control methods for suppression of the instability.

Cardiotrophin-like cytokine/cytokine-like factor 1 is an essential trophic factor for lumbar and facial motoneurons in vivo

The ciliary neurotrophic factor alpha-receptor(CNTFRalpha) is required for motoneuron survival during development, but the relevant ligand(s) has not been determined. One candidate is the heterodimer formed by cardiotrophin-like cytokine (CLC) and cytokine-like factor 1 (CLF). CLC/CLF binds to CNTFRalpha and enhances the survival of developing motoneurons in vitro; whether this novel trophic factor plays a role in neural development in vivo has not been tested. We examined motor and sensory neurons in embryonic chicks treated with CLC and in mice with a targeted deletion of the clf gene. Treatment with CLC increased the number of lumbar spinal cord motoneurons that survived the cell death period in chicks. However, this effect was regionally specific, because brachial and thoracic motoneurons were unaffected. Similarly, newborn clf -/- mice exhibited a significant reduction in lumbar motoneurons, with no change in the brachial or thoracic cord. Clf deletion also affected brainstem motor nuclei in a regionally specific manner; the number of motoneurons in the facial but not hypoglossal nucleus was significantly reduced. Sensory neurons of the dorsal root ganglia were not affected by either CLC treatment or clf gene deletion. Finally, mRNA for both clc and clf was found in skeletal muscle fibers of embryonic mice during the motoneuron cell death period. These findings support the view that CLC/CLF is a target-derived factor required for the survival of specific pools of motoneurons. The in vivo actions of CLC and CLF can account for many of the effects of CNTFRalpha on developing motoneurons.