Consumption habit and international stock returns

We use the consumption-based asset pricing model with habit formation to study the predictability and cross-section of returns from the international equity markets. We find that the predictability of returns from many developed countries' equity markets is explained in part by changing prices of risks associated with consumption relative to habit at the world as well as local levels. We also provide an exploratory investigation of the cross-sectional implications of the model under the complete world market integration hypothesis and find that the model performs mildly better than the traditional consumption-based model. the unconditional and conditional world CAPMs and a three-factor international asset pricing model. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The differential role of alcohol expectancies, drinking refusal self-efficacy and coping resources in predicting alcohol consumption in community and clinical samples

This study explored the relationship between coping, alcohol expectancies and drinking refusal self-efficacy in predicting drinking behaviour in both community and clinical samples. These variables were found to have differential effects in their association with frequency and volume of alcohol consumption across the two samples. Generally, drinking refusal self-efficacy was a more salient factor in relation to frequency and volume of community drinking, while coping and expectancies were more strongly associated with frequency of drinking sessions by problem drinkers. The interaction between expectancies and drinking refusal self-efficacy was related to volume of consumption in both groups, while coping and expectancies interacted in their association with frequency in the clinical group. The findings are discussed with regard to the different patterns of cognitive variables governing the decision to drink and the amount consumed in each drinking session, which may differentiate community and problem drinkers.

A model for predicting the future incidence of coronary heart disease within percentiles of coronary heart disease risk

Background We present a method (The CHD Prevention Model) for modelling the incidence of fatal and nonfatal coronary heart disease (CHD) within various CHD risk percentiles of an adult population. The model provides a relatively simple tool for lifetime risk prediction for subgroups within a population. It allows an estimation of the absolute primary CHD risk in different populations and will help identify subgroups of the adult population where primary CHD prevention is most appropriate and cost-effective. Methods The CHD risk distribution within the Australian population was modelled, based on the prevalence of CHD risk, individual estimates of integrated CHD risk, and current CHD mortality rates. Predicted incidence of first fatal and nonfatal myocardial infarction within CHD risk strata of the Australian population was determined. Results Approximately 25% of CHD deaths were predicted to occur amongst those in the top 10 percentiles of integrated CHD risk, regardless of age group or gender. It was found that while all causes survival did not differ markedly between percentiles of CHD risk before the ages of around 50-60, event-free survival began visibly to differ about 5 years earlier. Conclusions The CHD Prevention Model provides a means of predicting future CHD incidence amongst various strata of integrated CHD risk within an adult population. It has significant application both in individual risk counselling and in the identification of subgroups of the population where drug therapy to reduce CHD risk is most cost-effective. J Cardiovasc Risk 8:31-37 (C) 2001 Lippincott Williams & Wilkins.

Predicting coal ash slag flow characteristics (viscosity model for the Al2O3-CaO-'FeO'-SiO2 system)

A model has been developed which enables the viscosities of coal ash slags to be predicted as a function of composition and temperature under reducing conditions. The model describes both completely liquid and heterogeneous, i.e. partly crystallised, slags in the Al2O3-CaO-'FeO'-SiO2 system in equilibrium with metallic iron. The Urbain formalism has been modified to describe the viscosities of the liquid slag phase over the complete range of compositions and a wide range of temperatures. The computer package F * A * C * T was used to predict the proportions of solids and the compositions of the remaining liquid phases. The Roscoe equation has been used to describe the effect of presence of solid suspension (slurry effect) on the viscosity of partly crystallised slag systems. The model provides a good description of the experimental data of fully liquid, and liquid + solids mixtures, over the complete range of compositions and a wide range of temperatures. This model can now be used for viscosity predictions in industrial slag systems. Examples of the application of the new model to coal ash fluxing and blending are given in the paper. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Edge-to-edge matching model for predicting orientation relationships and habit planes-the improvements

The edge-to-edge matching model has been further developed along with the Cu/Cr system as an example. The conditions for zigzag atom rows to be matching directions are included and the critical value of interatomic spacing misfit along matching directions and the critical value of d-value mismatch between matching planes are proposed in the new version of the model. (c) 2005 Acta Materialia Inc. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analysis and application of an equilibrium model for in vitro bioassay systems with three components: Receptor, hormone and hormone-binding-protein

A simple theoretical framework is presented for bioassay studies using three component in vitro systems. An equilibrium model is used to derive equations useful for predicting changes in biological response after addition of hormone-binding-protein or as a consequence of increased hormone affinity. Sets of possible solutions for receptor occupancy and binding protein occupancy are found for typical values of receptor and binding protein affinity constants. Unique equilibrium solutions are dictated by the initial condition of total hormone concentration. According to the occupancy theory of drug action, increasing the affinity of a hormone for its receptor will result in a proportional increase in biological potency. However, the three component model predicts that the magnitude of increase in biological potency will be a small fraction of the proportional increase in affinity. With typical initial conditions a two-fold increase in hormone affinity for its receptor is predicted to result in only a 33% increase in biological response. Under the same conditions an Ii-fold increase in hormone affinity for receptor would be needed to produce a two-fold increase in biological potency. Some currently used bioassay systems may be unrecognized three component systems and gross errors in biopotency estimates will result if the effect of binding protein is not calculated. An algorithm derived from the three component model is used to predict changes in biological response after addition of binding protein to in vitro systems. The algorithm is tested by application to a published data set from an experimental study in an in vitro system (Lim et al., 1990, Endocrinology 127, 1287-1291). Predicted changes show good agreement (within 8%) with experimental observations. (C) 1998 Academic Press Limited.

Using Lindenmayer systems to model morphogenesis in a tropical pasture legume Stylosanthes scabra

This paper summarizes the processes involved in designing a mathematical model of a growing pasture plant, Stylosanthes scabra Vog. cv. Fitzroy. The model is based on the mathematical formalism of Lindenmayer systems and yields realistic computer-generated images of progressive plant geometry through time. The processes involved in attaining growth data, retrieving useful growth rules, and constructing a virtual plant model are outlined. Progressive output morphological data proved useful for predicting total leaf area and allowed for easier quantification of plant canopy size in terms of biomass and total leaf area.

Modelling of cold-formed purlin-sheeting systems .1. Full model

Purlin-sheeting systems used for roofs and walls commonly take the form of cold-formed channel or zed section purlins, screw-connected to corrugated sheeting. These purlin-sheeting systems have been the subject of numerous theoretical and experimental investigations over the past three decades, but the complexity of the systems has led to great difficulty in developing a sound and general model. This paper presents a non-linear elasto-plastic finite element model, capable of predicting the behaviour of purlin-sheeting systems without the need for either experimental input or over simplifying assumptions. The model incorporates both the sheeting and the purlin, and is able to account for cross-sectional distortion of the purlin, the flexural and membrane restraining effects of the sheeting, and failure of the purlin by local buckling or yielding. The validity of the model is shown by its good correlation with experimental results. A simplified version of this model, which is more suitable for use in a design environment, is presented in a companion paper. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd.

A mathematical model for Escherichia coli debris size reduction during high pressure homogenisation based on grinding theory

Experimental data for E. coli debris size reduction during high-pressure homogenisation at 55 MPa are presented. A mathematical model based on grinding theory is developed to describe the data. The model is based on first-order breakage and compensation conditions. It does not require any assumption of a specified distribution for debris size and can be used given information on the initial size distribution of whole cells and the disruption efficiency during homogenisation. The number of homogeniser passes is incorporated into the model and used to describe the size reduction of non-induced stationary and induced E. coil cells during homogenisation. Regressing the results to the model equations gave an excellent fit to experimental data ( > 98.7% of variance explained for both fermentations), confirming the model's potential for predicting size reduction during high-pressure homogenisation. This study provides a means to optimise both homogenisation and disc-stack centrifugation conditions for recombinant product recovery. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd.

Predicting relationships between speed and accuracy of targetting movements is important

While explaining a large proportion of any variance, accounts of the speed and accuracy of targetting movements use techniques (e.g., log transforms) that typically reduce variability before ''explaining'' the data. Therefore the predictive power of such accounts are important. We consider whether Plamondon's model can account for kinematics of targetting movements of clinical populations.