On measuring quality of a probabilistic commodity forecast for a system that incorporates seasonal climate forecasts

Regional commodity forecasts are being used increasingly in agricultural industries to enhance their risk management and decision-making processes. These commodity forecasts are probabilistic in nature and are often integrated with a seasonal climate forecast system. The climate forecast system is based on a subset of analogue years drawn from the full climatological distribution. In this study we sought to measure forecast quality for such an integrated system. We investigated the quality of a commodity (i.e. wheat and sugar) forecast based on a subset of analogue years in relation to a standard reference forecast based on the full climatological set. We derived three key dimensions of forecast quality for such probabilistic forecasts: reliability, distribution shift, and change in dispersion. A measure of reliability was required to ensure no bias in the forecast distribution. This was assessed via the slope of the reliability plot, which was derived from examination of probability levels of forecasts and associated frequencies of realizations. The other two dimensions related to changes in features of the forecast distribution relative to the reference distribution. The relationship of 13 published accuracy/skill measures to these dimensions of forecast quality was assessed using principal component analysis in case studies of commodity forecasting using seasonal climate forecasting for the wheat and sugar industries in Australia. There were two orthogonal dimensions of forecast quality: one associated with distribution shift relative to the reference distribution and the other associated with relative distribution dispersion. Although the conventional quality measures aligned with these dimensions, none measured both adequately. We conclude that a multi-dimensional approach to assessment of forecast quality is required and that simple measures of reliability, distribution shift, and change in dispersion provide a means for such assessment. The analysis presented was also relevant to measuring quality of probabilistic seasonal climate forecasting systems. The importance of retaining a focus on the probabilistic nature of the forecast and avoiding simplifying, but erroneous, distortions was discussed in relation to applying this new forecast quality assessment paradigm to seasonal climate forecasts. Copyright (K) 2003 Royal Meteorological Society.

The role of leader-member exchanges in mediating the relationship between locus of control and work reactions

The relationship between locus of control, the quality of exchanges between subordinates and leaders (LMX), and a variety of work-related reactions (intrinsic/extrinsic job satisfaction, work-related well-being, and organizational commitment) are examined. It was predicted that people with an internal locus of control develop better quality relations with their manager and this, in turn, results in more favourable work-related reactions. Results from two different samples (N = 404, and N = 51) supported this prediction, and also showed that LMX either fully, or partially, mediated the relationship between locus of control and all the work-related reactions.

Free-Surface Aeration and Momentum Exchange at a Bottom Outlet

This study aims to provide some new understanding of the air-water flow properties in high-velocity water jets discharging past an abrupt drop. Such a setup has been little studied to date despite the relevance to bottom outlets. Downstream of the step brink, the free-jet entrains air at both upper and lower air-water interfaces, as well as along the sides. An air-water shear layer develops at the lower nappe interface. At the lower nappe, the velocity redistribution was successfully modelled and the velocity field was found to be similar to that in two-dimensional wake flow. The results highlighted further two distinct flow regions. Close to the brink (Wex < 5000), the flow was dominated by momentum transfer. Further downstream (Wex > 5000), a strong competition between air bubble diffusion and momentum exchanges took place.

Hypercapitalism: New media, language, and social perceptions of value

Every day trillions of dollars circulate the globe in a digital data space and new forms of property and ownership emerge. Massive corporate entities with a global reach are formed and disappear with breathtaking speed, making and breaking personal fortunes the size of which defy imagination. Fictitious commodities abound. The genomes of entire nations have become corporately owned. Relationships have become the overt basis of economic wealth and political power. Hypercapitalism explores the problems of understanding this emergent form of global political economic organization by focusing on the internal relations between language, new media networks, and social perceptions of value. Taking an historical approach informed by Marx, Phil Graham draws upon writings in political economy, media studies, sociolinguistics, anthropology, and critical social science to understand the development, roots, and trajectory of the global system in which every possible aspect of human existence, including imagined futures, has become a commodity form.

Cost-benefit analysis of alternative forms of hedgerow intercropping in the Philippine uplands

Considerable resources have been expended promoting hedgerow intercropping with shrub legumes to farmers in the Philippine uplands. Despite the resources committed to research and extension, persistent adoption by farmers has been limited to low cost versions of the technology including natural vegetation and grass strips. In this paper, cost-benefit analysis is used to compare the economic returns from traditional open-field maize farming with returns from intercropping maize between leguminous shrub hedgerows, natural vegetation strips and grass strips. An erosion/productivity model, Soil Changes Under Agroforestry, was used to predict the effect of erosion on maize yields. Key informant surveys with experienced maize farmers were used to derive production budgets for the alternative farming methods. The economic incentives revealed by the cost-benefit analysis help to explain the adoption of maize farming methods in the Philippine uplands. Open-field farming without hedgerows has been by far the most popular method of maize production, often with two or more fields cropped in rotation. There is little persistent adoption of hedgerow intercropping with shrub legumes because sustained maize yields are not realised rapidly enough to compensate farmers for establishment and maintenance costs. Natural vegetation and grass strips are more attractive to farmers because of lower establishment costs, and provide intermediate steps to adoption. Rural finance, commodity pricing and agrarian reform policies influence the incentives for maize farmers in the Philippine uplands to adopt and maintain hedgerow intercropping.

Is the Australian wool futures market efficient as a predictor of spot prices?

Giles and Goss (1980) have suggested that, if a futures market provides a forward pricing function, then it is an efficient market. In this article a simple test for whether the Australian Wool Futures market is efficient is proposed. The test is based on applying cointegration techniques to test the Law of One Price over a three, six, nine, and twelve month spread of futures prices. We found that the futures market is efficient for up to a six-month spread, but no further into the future. Because futures market prices can be used to predict spot prices up to six months in advance, woolgrowers can use the futures price to assess when they market their clip, but not for longer-term production planning decisions. (C) 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Ecosystem process models at multiple scales for mapping tropical forest productivity

Quantifying mass and energy exchanges within tropical forests is essential for understanding their role in the global carbon budget and how they will respond to perturbations in climate. This study reviews ecosystem process models designed to predict the growth and productivity of temperate and tropical forest ecosystems. Temperate forest models were included because of the minimal number of tropical forest models. The review provides a multiscale assessment enabling potential users to select a model suited to the scale and type of information they require in tropical forests. Process models are reviewed in relation to their input and output parameters, minimum spatial and temporal units of operation, maximum spatial extent and time period of application for each organization level of modelling. Organizational levels included leaf-tree, plot-stand, regional and ecosystem levels, with model complexity decreasing as the time-step and spatial extent of model operation increases. All ecosystem models are simplified versions of reality and are typically aspatial. Remotely sensed data sets and derived products may be used to initialize, drive and validate ecosystem process models. At the simplest level, remotely sensed data are used to delimit location, extent and changes over time of vegetation communities. At a more advanced level, remotely sensed data products have been used to estimate key structural and biophysical properties associated with ecosystem processes in tropical and temperate forests. Combining ecological models and image data enables the development of carbon accounting systems that will contribute to understanding greenhouse gas budgets at biome and global scales.

Bioprocess-centered molecular design (BMD) for the efficient production of an interfacially active peptide

The efficient expression and purification of an interfacially active peptide (mLac21) was achieved by using bioprocess-centered molecular design (BMD), wherein key bioprocess considerations are addressed during the initial molecular biology work. The 21 amino acid mLac21 peptide sequence is derived from the lac repressor protein and is shown to have high affinity for the oil-water interface, causing a substantial reduction in interfacial tension following adsorption. The DNA coding for the peptide sequence was cloned into a modified pET-31(b) vector to permit the expression of mLac21 as a fusion to ketosteroid isomerase (KSI). Rational iterative molecular design, taking into account the need for a scaleable bioprocess flowsheet, led to a simple and efficient bioprocess yielding mLac21 at 86% purity following ion exchange chromatography (and >98% following chromatographic polishing). This case study demonstrates that it is possible to produce acceptably pure peptide for potential commodity applications using common scaleable bioprocess unit operations. Moreover, it is shown that BMD is a powerful strategy that can be deployed to reduce bioseparation complexity. (C) 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Radiation of the Australian flora: What can comparisons of molecular phylogenies across multiple taxa tell us about the evolution of diversity in present-day communities?

The Australian fossil record shows that from ca. 25 Myr ago, the aseasonal-wet biome (rainforest and wet heath) gave way to the unique Australian sclerophyll biomes dominated by eucalypts, acacias and casuarinas. This transition coincided with tectonic isolation of Australia, leading to cooler, drier, more seasonal climates. From 3 Myr ago, aridification caused rapid opening of the central Australian and zone. Molecular phylogenies with dated nodes have provided new perspectives on how these events could have affected the evolution of the Australian flora. During the Mid-Cenozoic (25-10 Myr ago) period of climatic change, there were rapid radiations in sclerophyll taxa, such as Banksia, eucalypts, pea-flowered legumes and Allocasuarina. At the same time, taxa restricted to the aseasonal-wet biome (Nothofagus, Podocarpaceae and Araucariaceae) did not radiate or were depleted by extinction. During the Pliocene aridification, two Eremean biome taxa (Lepidium and Chenopodiaceae) radiated rapidly after dispersing into Australia from overseas. It is clear that the biomes have different histories. Lineages in the aseasonal-wet biome are species poor, with sister taxa that are species rich, either outside Australia or in the sclerophyll biomes. In conjunction with the fossil record, this indicates depletion of the Australian aseasonal-wet biome from the Mid-Cenozoic. In the sclerophyll biomes, there have been multiple exchanges between the southwest and southeast, rather than single large endemic radiations after a vicariance event. There is need for rigorous molecular phylogenetic studies so that additional questions can be addressed, such as how interactions between biomes may have driven the speciation process during radiations. New studies should include the hither-to neglected monsoonal tropics.