Bayesian analysis of the error correction model

This paper presents a method for estimating the posterior probability density of the cointegrating rank of a multivariate error correction model. A second contribution is the careful elicitation of the prior for the cointegrating vectors derived from a prior on the cointegrating space. This prior obtains naturally from treating the cointegrating space as the parameter of interest in inference and overcomes problems previously encountered in Bayesian cointegration analysis. Using this new prior and Laplace approximation, an estimator for the posterior probability of the rank is given. The approach performs well compared with information criteria in Monte Carlo experiments. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Equity market linkage and multinational trade accords: The case of NAFTA

This paper examines the impact of multinational trade accords on the degree of stock market linkage using NAFTA as a case study. Besides liberalizing trade among the U.S., Canada and Mexico, NAFTA has also sought to strengthen linkage among stock markets of these countries. If successful, this could lessen the appeal of asset diversification across the North American region and promote a higher degree of market efficiency. We assess the possible impact of NAFTA on market linkage using cross-correlations, multivariate price cointegrating systems, speed of convergence, and generalized variance decompositions of unexpected stock returns. The evidence proves robust and consistently indicates intensified equity market linkage since the NAFTA accord. The results also suggest that interdependent goods markets in the region are a primary reason behind the stronger equity market linkage observed in the post-NAFTA period. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Nonstationary brand variables in category management: A cointegration perspective

Category-management models serve to assist in the development of plans for pricing and promotions of individual brands. Techniques to solve the models can have problems of accuracy and interpretability because they are susceptible to spurious regression problems due to nonstationary time-series data. Improperly stated nonstationary systems can reduce the accuracy of the forecasts and undermine the interpretation of the results. This is problematic because recent studies indicate that sales are often a nonstationary time-series. Newly developed correction techniques can account for nonstationarity by incorporating error-correction terms into the model when using a Bayesian Vector Error-Correction Model. The benefit of using such a technique is that shocks to control variates can be separated into permanent and temporary effects and allow cointegration of series for analysis purposes. Analysis of a brand data set indicates that this is important even at the brand level. Thus, additional information is generated that allows a decision maker to examine controllable variables in terms of whether they influence sales over a short or long duration. Only products that are nonstationary in sales volume can be manipulated for long-term profit gain, and promotions must be cointegrated with brand sales volume. The brand data set is used to explore the capabilities and interpretation of cointegration.

Hydrothermal Stability Analysis of Carbonised Template Molecular Sieve Silica Membranes

For fuel cell CO clean up application, the presence of water with silica membranes greatly reduces their selectivity to CO. We show results of a new functional carbonised template membrane of around 13nm thickness which offered hydrothermal stability with no compromise to the membrane’s H2/CO permselectivity of 16. Lost permeance was also regenerated.

A matching pursuit-based signal complexity measure for the analysis of newborn EEG

This paper presents a new relative measure of signal complexity, referred to here as relative structural complexity, which is based on the matching pursuit (MP) decomposition. By relative, we refer to the fact that this new measure is highly dependent on the decomposition dictionary used by MP. The structural part of the definition points to the fact that this new measure is related to the structure, or composition, of the signal under analysis. After a formal definition, the proposed relative structural complexity measure is used in the analysis of newborn EEG. To do this, firstly, a time-frequency (TF) decomposition dictionary is specifically designed to compactly represent the newborn EEG seizure state using MP. We then show, through the analysis of synthetic and real newborn EEG data, that the relative structural complexity measure can indicate changes in EEG structure as it transitions between the two EEG states; namely seizure and background (non-seizure).

Analysis of Wolbachia protein synthesis in Drosophila in vivo

Intracellular Wolbachia infections are extremely common in arthropods and exert profound control over the reproductive biology of the host. However, very little is known about the underlying molecular mechanisms which mediate these interactions with the host. We examined protein synthesis by Wolbachia in a Drosophila host in vivo by selective metabolic labelling of prokaryotic proteins and subsequent analysis by 1D and 2D gel electrophoresis. Using this method we could identify the major proteins synthesized by Wolbachia in ovaries and testes of flies. Of these proteins the most abundant was of low molecular weight and showed size variation between Wolbachia strains which correlated with the reproductive phenotype they generated in flies. Using the gel systems we employed it was not possible to identify any proteins of Wolbachia origin in the mature sperm cells of infected flies.

16S rRNA phylogenetic analysis of the bacterial endosymbionts associated with cytoplasmic incompatibility in insects

Bacterial endosymbionts of insects have long been implicated in the phenomenon of cytoplasmic incompatibility, in which certain crosses between symbiont-infected individuals lead to embryonic death or sex ratio distortion. The taxonomic position of these bacteria has, however, not been known with any certainty. Similarly, the relatedness of the bacteria infecting various insect hosts has been unclear. The inability to grow these bacteria on defined cell-free medium has been the major factor underlying these uncertainties. We circumvented this problem by selective PCR amplification and subsequent sequencing of the symbiont 16S rRNA genes directly from infected insect tissue. Maximum parsimony analysis of these sequences indicates that the symbionts belong in the α-subdivision of the Proteobacteria, where they are most closely related to the Rickettsia and their relatives. They are all closely related to each other and are assigned to the type species Wolbachia pipientis. Lack of congruence between the phylogeny of the symbionts and their insect hosts suggests that horizontal transfer of symbionts between insect species may occur. Comparison of the sequences for W. pipientis and for Wolbachia persica, an endosymbiont of ticks, shows that the genus Wolbachia is polyphyletic. A PCR assay based on 16S primers was designed for the detection of W. pipientis in insect tissue, and initial screening of insects indicates that cytoplasmic incompatibility may be a more general phenomenon in insects than is currently recognized.

Algorithms for sequence analysis via mutagenesis

Despite many successes of conventional DNA sequencing methods, some DNAs remain difficult or impossible to sequence. Unsequenceable regions occur in the genomes of many biologically important organisms, including the human genome. Such regions range in length from tens to millions of bases, and may contain valuable information such as the sequences of important genes. The authors have recently developed a technique that renders a wide range of problematic DNAs amenable to sequencing. The technique is known as sequence analysis via mutagenesis (SAM). This paper presents a number of algorithms for analysing and interpreting data generated by this technique.

Equational Reasoning as a Tool for Data Analysis

A combination of deductive reasoning, clustering, and inductive learning is given as an example of a hybrid system for exploratory data analysis. Visualization is replaced by a dialogue with the data.

Design, Science and Conceptual Analysis

Philosophers expend considerable effort on the analysis of concepts, but the value of such work is not widely appreciated. This paper principally analyses some arguments, beliefs, and presuppositions about the nature of design and the relations between design and science common in the literature to illustrate this point, and to contribute to the foundations of design theory.

XSophe-Sophe-XeprView (R). A computer simulation software suite (v. 1.1.3) for the analysis of continuous wave EPR spectra

The XSophe-Sophe-XeprView((R)) computer simulation software suite enables scientists to easily determine spin Hamiltonian parameters from isotropic, randomly oriented and single crystal continuous wave electron paramagnetic resonance (CW EPR) spectra from radicals and isolated paramagnetic metal ion centers or clusters found in metalloproteins, chemical systems and materials science. XSophe provides an X-windows graphical user interface to the Sophe programme and allows: creation of multiple input files, local and remote execution of Sophe, the display of sophelog (output from Sophe) and input parameters/files. Sophe is a sophisticated computer simulation software programme employing a number of innovative technologies including; the Sydney OPera HousE (SOPHE) partition and interpolation schemes, a field segmentation algorithm, the mosaic misorientation linewidth model, parallelization and spectral optimisation. In conjunction with the SOPHE partition scheme and the field segmentation algorithm, the SOPHE interpolation scheme and the mosaic misorientation linewidth model greatly increase the speed of simulations for most spin systems. Employing brute force matrix diagonalization in the simulation of an EPR spectrum from a high spin Cr(III) complex with the spin Hamiltonian parameters g(e) = 2.00, D = 0.10 cm(-1), E/D = 0.25, A(x) = 120.0, A(y) = 120.0, A(z) = 240.0 x 10(-4) cm(-1) requires a SOPHE grid size of N = 400 (to produce a good signal to noise ratio) and takes 229.47 s. In contrast the use of either the SOPHE interpolation scheme or the mosaic misorientation linewidth model requires a SOPHE grid size of only N = 18 and takes 44.08 and 0.79 s, respectively. Results from Sophe are transferred via the Common Object Request Broker Architecture (CORBA) to XSophe and subsequently to XeprView((R)) where the simulated CW EPR spectra (1D and 2D) can be compared to the experimental spectra. Energy level diagrams, transition roadmaps and transition surfaces aid the interpretation of complicated randomly oriented CW EPR spectra and can be viewed with a web browser and an OpenInventor scene graph viewer.

Experimental Analysis of Froude Number Effect on Air Entrainment in the Hydraulic Jump

A hydraulic jump is characterized by strong energy dissipation and mixing, large-scale turbulence, air entrainment, waves and spray. Despite recent pertinent studies, the interaction between air bubbles diffusion and momentum transfer is not completely understood. The objective of this paper is to present experimental results from new measurements performed in rectangular horizontal flume with partially-developed inflow conditions. The vertical distributions of void fraction and air bubbles count rate were recorded for inflow Froude number Fr1 in the range from 5.2 to 14.3. Rapid detrainment process was observed near the jump toe, whereas the structure of the air diffusion layer was clearly observed over longer distances. These new data were compared with previous data generally collected at lower Froude numbers. The comparison demonstrated that, at a fixed distance from the jump toe, the maximum void fraction Cmax increases with the increasing Fr1. The vertical locations of the maximum void fraction and bubble count rate were consistent with previous studies. Finally, an empirical correlation between the upper boundary of the air diffusion layer and the distance from the impingement point was provided.

Analysis of multiple gas solid reactions

Multiple gas solid reactions involving one solid and N gaseous reactants are investigated in this study by using a matched asymptotic expansion technique. Two cases are particularly studied. In the first case all N chemical reaction rates are faster than the diffusion rate. While in the second case only M (M < N) chemical reaction rates are faster than the diffusion rate and the rates of the remaining (N-M) chemical reactions are comparable to that of diffusion. For these two cases the solid concentration profile behaves like a travelling wave. In the first case the wave front velocity is contributed linearly by all gaseous reactants (additive law) while in the second case this law does not hold.

A framework for electricity price spike analysis with advanced data mining methods

There are many techniques for electricity market price forecasting. However, most of them are designed for expected price analysis rather than price spike forecasting. An effective method of predicting the occurrence of spikes has not yet been observed in the literature so far. In this paper, a data mining based approach is presented to give a reliable forecast of the occurrence of price spikes. Combined with the spike value prediction techniques developed by the same authors, the proposed approach aims at providing a comprehensive tool for price spike forecasting. In this paper, feature selection techniques are firstly described to identify the attributes relevant to the occurrence of spikes. A simple introduction to the classification techniques is given for completeness. Two algorithms: support vector machine and probability classifier are chosen to be the spike occurrence predictors and are discussed in details. Realistic market data are used to test the proposed model with promising results.