Assisting decision-making in Queensland barley production through chance constrained programming

A chance constrained programming model is developed to assist Queensland barley growers make varietal and agronomic decisions in the face of changing product demands and volatile production conditions. Unsuitable or overlooked in many risk programming applications, the chance constrained programming approach nonetheless aptly captures the single-stage decision problem faced by barley growers of whether to plant lower-yielding but potentially higher-priced malting varieties, given a particular expectation of meeting malting grade standards. Different expectations greatly affect the optimal mix of malting and feed barley activities. The analysis highlights the suitability of chance constrained programming to this specific class of farm decision problem.

Optimal control and operation of drum granulation processes

Process optimisation and optimal control of batch and continuous drum granulation processes are studied in this paper. The main focus of the current research has been: (i) construction of optimisation and control relevant, population balance models through the incorporation of moisture content, drum rotation rate and bed depth into the coalescence kernels; (ii) investigation of optimal operational conditions using constrained optimisation techniques; (iii) development of optimal control algorithms based on discretized population balance equations; and (iv) comprehensive simulation studies on optimal control of both batch and continuous granulation processes. The objective of steady state optimisation is to minimise the recycle rate with minimum cost for continuous processes. It has been identified that the drum rotation-rate, bed depth (material charge), and moisture content of solids are practical decision (design) parameters for system optimisation. The objective for the optimal control of batch granulation processes is to maximize the mass of product-sized particles with minimum time and binder consumption. The objective for the optimal control of the continuous process is to drive the process from one steady state to another in a minimum time with minimum binder consumption, which is also known as the state-driving problem. It has been known for some time that the binder spray-rate is the most effective control (manipulative) variable. Although other possible manipulative variables, such as feed flow-rate and additional powder flow-rate have been investigated in the complete research project, only the single input problem with the binder spray rate as the manipulative variable is addressed in the paper to demonstrate the methodology. It can be shown from simulation results that the proposed models are suitable for control and optimisation studies, and the optimisation algorithms connected with either steady state or dynamic models are successful for the determination of optimal operational conditions and dynamic trajectories with good convergence properties. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Small molecular probes for G-protein-coupled C5a receptors: Conformationally constrained antagonists derived from the C terminus of the human plasma protein C5a

Activation of the human complement system of plasma proteins in response to infection or injury produces a 4-helix bundle glycoprotein (74 amino acids) known as C5a. C5a binds to G-protein-coupled receptors on cell surfaces triggering receptor-ligand internalization, signal transduction, and powerful inflammatory responses. Since excessive levels of C5a are associated with autoimmune and chronic inflammatory disorders, inhibitors of receptor activation may have therapeutic potential. We now report solution structures and receptor-binding and antagonist activities for some of the first small molecule antagonists of C5a derived from its hexapeptide C terminus. The antagonist NMe-Phe-Lys-Pro-D-Cha-Trp-D-Arg-CO2H (1) surprisingly shows an unusually well-defined solution structure as determined by H-1 NMR spectroscopy. This is one of the smallest acyclic peptides found to possess a defined solution conformation, which can be explained by the constraining role of intramolecular hydrogen bonding. NOE and coupling constant data, slow deuterium exchange, and a low dependence on temperature for the chemical shift of the D-Cha-NH strongly indicate an inverse gamma turn stabilized by a D-Cha-NH ... OC-Lys hydrogen bond. Smaller conformational populations are associated with a hydrogen bond between Trp-NH ... OC-Lys, defining a type II beta turn distorted by the inverse gamma turn incorporated within it. An excellent correlation between receptor-affinity and antagonist activity is indicated for a limited set of synthetic peptides. Conversion of the C-terminal carboxylate of 1 to an amide decreases antagonist potency 5-fold, but potency is increased up to 10-fold over 1 if the amide bond is made between the C-terminal carboxylate and a Lys/Orn side chain to form a cyclic analogue. The solution structure of cycle 6 also shows gamma and beta turns; however, the latter occurs in a different position, and there are clear conformational changes in 6 vs 1 that result in enhanced activity. These results indicate that potent C5a antagonists can be developed by targeting site 2 alone of the C5a receptor and define a novel pharmacophore for developing powerful receptor probes or drug candidates.

The conserved quantity theory of causation and chance raising

In this paper I offer an 'integrating account' of singular causation, where the term 'integrating' refers to the following program for analysing causation. There are two intuitions about causation, both of which face serious counterexamples when used as the basis for an analysis of causation. The 'process' intuition, which says that causes and effects are linked by concrete processes, runs into trouble with cases of misconnections', where an event which serves to prevent another fails to do so on a particular occasion and yet the two events are linked by causal processes. The chance raising intuition, according to which causes raise the chance of their effects, easily accounts for misconnections but faces the problem of chance lowering causes, a problem easily accounted for by the process approach. The integrating program attempts to provide an analysis of singular causation by synthesising the two insights, so as to solve both problems. In this paper I show that extant versions of the integrating program due to Eells, Lewis, and Menzies fail to account for the chance-lowering counterexample. I offer a new diagnosis of the chance lowering case, and use that as a basis for an integrating account of causation which does solve both cases. In doing so, I accept various assumptions of the integrating program, in particular that there are no other problems with these two approaches. As an example of the process account, I focus on the recent CQ theory of Wesley Salmon (1997).

Chance-lowering causes

Philosophers have long been fascinated by the connection between cause and effect: are 'causes' things we can experience, or are they concepts provided by our minds? The study of causation goes back to Aristotle, but resurged with David Hume and Immanuel Kant, and is now one of the most important topics in metaphysics. Most of the recent work done in this area has attempted to place causation in a deterministic, scientific, worldview. But what about the unpredictable and chancey world we actually live in: can one theory of causation cover all instances of cause and effect?Cause and Chance: Causation in an Indeterministic Worldis a collection of specially written papers by world-class metaphysicians. Its focus is the problem facing the 'reductionist' approach to causation: the attempt to cover all types of causation, deterministic and indeterministic, with one basic theory.

Robust parameter settings of evolutionary algorithms for the optimisation of agricultural systems models

Numerical optimisation methods are being more commonly applied to agricultural systems models, to identify the most profitable management strategies. The available optimisation algorithms are reviewed and compared, with literature and our studies identifying evolutionary algorithms (including genetic algorithms) as superior in this regard to simulated annealing, tabu search, hill-climbing, and direct-search methods. Results of a complex beef property optimisation, using a real-value genetic algorithm, are presented. The relative contributions of the range of operational options and parameters of this method are discussed, and general recommendations listed to assist practitioners applying evolutionary algorithms to the solution of agricultural systems. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sludge population optimisation: a new dimension for the control of biological wastewater treatment systems

The activated sludge comprises a complex microbiological community. The structure (what types of microorganisms are present) and function (what can the organisms do and at what rates) of this community are determined by external physico -chemical features and by the influent to the sewage treatment plant. The external features we can manipulate but rarely the influent. Conventional control and operational strategies optimise activated sludge processes more as a chemical system than as a biological one. While optimising the process in a short time period, these strategies may deteriorate the long-term performance of the process due to their potentially adverse impact on the microbial properties. Through briefly reviewing the evidence available in the literature that plant design and operation affect both the structure and function of the microbial community in activated sludge, we propose to add sludge population optimisation as a new dimension to the control of biological wastewater treatment systems. We stress that optimising the microbial community structure and property should be an explicit aim for the design and operation of a treatment plant. The major limitations to sludge population optimisation revolve around inadequate microbiological data, specifically community structure, function and kinetic data. However, molecular microbiological methods that strive to provide that data are being developed rapidly. The combination of these methods with the conventional approaches for kinetic study is briefly discussed. The most pressing research questions pertaining to sludge population optimisation are outlined. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Conformationally constrained macrocycles that mimic tripeptide beta-strands in water and aprotic solvents

The beta-strand conformation is unknown for short peptides in aqueous solution, yet it is a fundamental building block in proteins and the crucial recognition motif for proteolytic enzymes that enable formation and turnover of all proteins. To create a generalized scaffold as a peptidomimetic that is preorganized in a beta-strand, we individually synthesized a series of 15-22-membered macrocyclic analogues of tripeptides and analyzed their structures. Each cycle is highly constrained by two trans amide bonds and a planar aromatic ring with a short nonpeptidic linker between them. A measure of this ring strain is the restricted rotation of the component tyrosinyl aromatic ring (DeltaG(rot) 76.7 kJ mol(-1) (16-membered ring), 46.1 kJ mol(-1) (17-membered ring)) evidenced by variable temperature proton NMR spectra (DMF-d(7), 200-400 K). Unusually large amide coupling constants ((3)J(NH-CHalpha) 9-10 Hz) corresponding to large dihedral angles were detected in both protic and aprotic solvents for these macrocycles, consistent with a high degree of structure in solution. The temperature dependence of all amide NH chemical shifts (Deltadelta/T7-12 ppb/deg) precluded the presence of transannular hydrogen bonds that define alternative turn structures. Whereas similar sized conventional cyclic peptides usually exist in solution as an equilibrium mixture of multiple conformers, these macrocycles adopt a well-defined beta-strand structure even in water as revealed by 2-D NMR spectral data and by a structure calculation for the smallest (15-membered) and most constrained macrocycle. Macrocycles that are sufficiently constrained to exclusively adopt a beta-strand-mimicking structure in water may be useful pre-organized and generic templates for the design of compounds that interfere with beta-strand recognition in biology.

Regioselective synthesis of antiparallel loops on a macrocyclic scaffold constrained by oxazoles and thiazoles

[GRAPHICS] The regioselective syntheses and structures are reported for two tris-macrocylic compounds, each possessing two antiparallel loops on a macrocyclic scaffold constrained by two oxazoles and two thiazoles. NMR solution structures show the loops projecting from the same face of the macrocycle. Such molecules are shown to be prototypes for mimicking multiple loops of proteins.

Species richness in agamid lizards: chance, body size, sexual selection or ecology?

Why does species richness vary so greatly across lineages? Traditionally, variation in species richness has been attributed to deterministic processes, although it is equally plausible that it may result from purely stochastic processes. We show that, based on the best available phylogenetic hypothesis, the pattern of cladogenesis among agamid lizards is not consistent with a random model, with some lineages having more species, and others fewer species, than expected by chance. We then use phylogenetic comparative methods to test six types of deterministic explanation for variation in species richness: body size, life history, sexual selection, ecological generalism, range size and latitude. Of eight variables we tested, only sexual size dimorphism and sexual dichromatism predicted species richness. Increases in species richness are associated with increases in sexual dichromatism but reductions in sexual size dimorphism. Consistent with recent comparative studies, we find no evidence that species richness is associated with small body size or high fecundity. Equally, we find no evidence that species richness covaries with ecological generalism, latitude or range size.