Forecasting regional crop production using SOI phases: an example for the Australian peanut industry

Using peanuts as an example, a generic methodology is presented to forward-estimate regional crop production and associated climatic risks based on phases of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Yield fluctuations caused by a highly variable rainfall environment are of concern to peanut processing and marketing bodies. The industry could profitably use forecasts of likely production to adjust their operations strategically. Significant, physically based lag-relationships exist between an index of ocean/atmosphere El Nino/Southern Oscillation phenomenon and future rainfall in Australia and elsewhere. Combining knowledge of SOI phases in November and December with output from a dynamic simulation model allows the derivation of yield probability distributions based on historic rainfall data. This information is available shortly after planting a crop and at least 3-5 months prior to harvest. The study shows that in years when the November-December SOI phase is positive there is an 80% chance of exceeding average district yields. Conversely, in years when the November-December SOI phase is either negative or rapidly falling there is only a 5% chance of exceeding average district yields, but a 95% chance of below average yields. This information allows the industry to adjust strategically for the expected volume of production. The study shows that simulation models can enhance SOI signals contained in rainfall distributions by discriminating between useful and damaging rainfall events. The methodology can be applied to other industries and regions.

Comparison of identity by descent and identity by state for detecting genetic regions under selection in a sorghum pedigree breeding program

Seventy sorghum inbred lines which formed part of the Queensland Department of Primary Industries (QDPI) sorghum breeding program were screened with 104 previously mapped RFLP markers. The lines were related by pedigree and consisted of ancestral source lines, intermediate lines and recent releases from the program. We compared the effect of defining marker alleles using either identity by state (IBS) or identity by descent (IBD) on our capacity to trace markers through the pedigree and detect evidence of selection for particular alleles. Allelic identities defined using IBD were much more sensitive for detecting non-Mendelian segregation in this pedigree. Only one marker allele showed significant evidence of selection when IBS was used compared with ten regions with particular allelic identities when IBD was used. Regions under selection were compared with the location of QTLs for agronomic traits known to be under selection in the breeding program. Only two of the ten regions were associated with known QTLs that matched with knowledge of the agronomic characteristics of the ancestral lines. Some of the other regions were hypothesised to be associated with genes for particular traits based on the properties of the ancestral source lines.

Simulating the effects of dominance and epistasis on selection response in the CIMMYT wheat breeding program using QuCim

Plant breeders use many different breeding methods to develop superior cultivars. However, it is difficult, cumbersome, and expensive to evaluate the performance of a breeding method or to compare the efficiencies of different breeding methods within an ongoing breeding program. To facilitate comparisons, we developed a QU-GENE module called QuCim that can simulate a large number of breeding strategies for self-pollinated species. The wheat breeding strategy Selected Bulk used by CIMMYT's wheat breeding program was defined in QuCim as an example of how this is done. This selection method was simulated in QuCim to investigate the effects of deviations from the additive genetic model, in the form of dominance and epistasis, on selection outcomes. The simulation results indicate that the partial dominance model does not greatly influence genetic advance compared with the pure additive model. Genetic advance in genetic systems with overdominance and epistasis are slower than when gene effects are purely additive or partially dominant. The additive gene effect is an appropriate indicator of the change in gene frequency following selection when epistasis is absent. In the absence of epistasis, the additive variance decreases rapidly with selection. However, after several cycles of selection it remains relatively fixed when epistasis is present. The variance from partial dominance is relatively small and therefore hard to detect by the covariance among half sibs and the covariance among full sibs. The dominance variance from the overdominance model can be identified successfully, but it does not change significantly, which confirms that overdominance cannot be utilized by an inbred breeding program. QuCim is an effective tool to compare selection strategies and to validate some theories in quantitative genetics.

Does the cutting of lucerne (Medicago sativa) encourage the movement of arthropod pests and predators into the adjacent crop?

Lucerne (Medicago sativa) has been suggested as an ideal refuge habitat as part of an integrated pest management (IPM) program because it harbours high numbers of beneficial arthropods. Whether or not cutting of lucerne encourages the movement of these beneficials into adjacent target crops is unknown. Vacuum samples were used to determine the effects of cutting lucerne on arthropod abundance (pests and predators) within lucerne and adjacent soybean (Glycine max) crops. Vacuum-sample collections of arthropods were conducted before and after lucerne cutting on seven occasions in four fields over two seasons. In the lucerne, 10 m by 1 m strips parallel to the crop interface were sampled at 5, 10, 15, 20 and 30 m from the interface. In the soybean, 10 m of row were sampled at the same distances from the crop interface. The abundance of predators in lucerne was reduced immediately after cutting at all distances from the interface. Predator abundance in soybean did not show any change. The cutting of lucerne significantly reduced pest numbers within the lucerne but had little effect on pest abundance in the adjacent soybean. The temporal pattern in pest and predator abundance was very different for each field sampled. Generally, arthropods decreased in abundance after cutting and gradually increased as the lucerne grew back. In soybeans, arthropod numbers fluctuated regardless of the cutting of the lucerne. Cutting of lucerne alone does not guarantee movement of predators into the adjacent target crop. The presence of lucerne fields within a cropping area may have some impact on regional predator populations, and so still be useful for IPM programs, but this has yet to be tested critically.

Highly demanding resistive vibration exercise program is tolerated during 56 days of strict bed-rest

Several studies have tried to find countermeasures against musculoskeletal de-conditioning during bed-rest, but none of them yielded decisive results. We hypothesised that resistive vibration exercise (RVE) might be a suitable training modality. We have therefore carried out a bed-rest study to evaluate its feasibility and efficacy during 56 days of bed-rest. Twenty healthy male volunteers aged 24 to 43 years were recruited and, after medical check-ups, randomised to a non-exercising control (Ctrl) group or a group that performed RVE 11 times per week. Strict bed-rest was controlled by video surveillance. The diet was controlled. RVE was performed in supine position, with a static force component of about twice the body weight and a smaller dynamic force component. RVE comprised four different units (squats, heel raises, toe raises, kicks), each of which lasted 60 - 100 seconds. Pre and post exercise levels of lactate were measured once weekly. Body weight was measured daily on a bed scale. Pain questionnaires were obtained in regular intervals during and after the bed-rest. Vibration frequency was set to 19 Hz at the beginning and progressed to 25.9 Hz (SD 1.9) at the end of the study, suggesting that the dynamic force component increased by 90%. The maximum sustainable exercise time for squat exercise increased from 86 s (SD 21) on day 11 of the BR to 176 s (SD 73) on day 53 (p = 0.006). On the same days, post-exercise lactate levels increased from 6.9 mmol/l (SD2.3) to 9.2 mmol/l (SD 3.5, p = 0.01). On average, body weight was unchanged in both groups during bed-rest, but single individuals in both groups depicted significant weight changes ranging from -10% to + d10% (p < 0.001). Lower limb pain was more frequent during bed-rest in the RVE subjects than in Ctrl (p = 0.035). During early recovery, subjects of both groups suffered from muscle pain to a comparable extent, but foot pain was more common in Ctrl than in RVE (p = 0.013 for plantar pain, p = 0.074 for dorsal foot pain). Our results indicate that RVE is feasible twice daily during bed-rest in young healthy males, provided that one afternoon and one entire day per week are free. Exercise progression, mainly by progression of vibration frequency, yielded increases in maximum sustainable exercise time and blood lactate. In conclusion, RVE as performed in this study, appears to be safe.

The consumption of alcohol by Australian adolescents: A comparison of revenue and expenditure

Aims: To estimate (i) Australian government taxation revenue collected from the consumption of alcohol by adolescents and (ii) the amount spent by the government on interventions aimed at educating adolescents about the potential dangers of alcohol use. Design: Secondary data analysis. Setting: Australia. Findings: Australian adolescents (aged between 12 and 17 years, inclusive) spent approximately $217 million on alcoholic beverages in 2002, netting the Australian government approximately $112 million in tax revenue. This resulted in an average of $195 earned in tax per adolescent drinker. It is estimated that the Government spent approximately $17 million on adolescent drinking interventions in 2002, equating to an expenditure of about $10.51 per adolescent on the delivery of alcohol interventions. For every dollar spent on alcohol interventions aimed at adolescents, it is estimated that the government receives around $7 in alcohol tax revenue. Conclusions: A substantial disparity exists between the amount of tax revenue received by the Australian Government from adolescent drinkers and the overall amount spent in attempting to prevent and relieve some of the problems associated with adolescent problem drinking. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Trait physiology and crop modelling to link phenotypic complexity to underlying genetic systems

New tools derived from advances in molecular biology have not been widely adopted in plant breeding because of the inability to connect information at gene level to the phenotype in a manner that is useful for selection. We explore whether a crop growth and development modelling framework can link phenotype complexity to underlying genetic systems in a way that strengthens molecular breeding strategies. We use gene-to-phenotype simulation studies on sorghum to consider the value to marker-assisted selection of intrinsically stable QTLs that might be generated by physiological dissection of complex traits. The consequences on grain yield of genetic variation in four key adaptive traits – phenology, osmotic adjustment, transpiration efficiency, and staygreen – were simulated for a diverse set of environments by placing the known extent of genetic variation in the context of the physiological determinants framework of a crop growth and development model. It was assumed that the three to five genes associated with each trait, had two alleles per locus acting in an additive manner. The effects on average simulated yield, generated by differing combinations of positive alleles for the traits incorporated, varied with environment type. The full matrix of simulated phenotypes, which consisted of 547 location-season combinations and 4235 genotypic expression states, was analysed for genetic and environmental effects. The analysis was conducted in stages with gradually increased understanding of gene-to-phenotype relationships, which would arise from physiological dissection and modelling. It was found that environmental characterisation and physiological knowledge helped to explain and unravel gene and environment context dependencies. We simulated a marker-assisted selection (MAS) breeding strategy based on the analyses of gene effects. When marker scores were allocated based on the contribution of gene effects to yield in a single environment, there was a wide divergence in rate of yield gain over all environments with breeding cycle depending on the environment chosen for the QTL analysis. It was suggested that knowledge resulting from trait physiology and modelling would overcome this dependency by identifying stable QTLs. The improved predictive power would increase the utility of the QTLs in MAS. Developing and implementing this gene-to-phenotype capability in crop improvement requires enhanced attention to phenotyping, ecophysiological modelling, and validation studies to test the stability of candidate QTLs.

Bellerophon: a program to detect chimeric sequences in multiple sequence alignments

Bellerophon is a program for detecting chimeric sequences in multiple sequence datasets by an adaption of partial treeing analysis. Bellerophon was specifically developed to detect 16S rRNA gene chimeras in PCR-clone libraries of environmental samples but can be applied to other nucleotide sequence alignments.

Using FCD Mapper Software and Landsat Images to Assess Forest Canopy Density in Landscapes in Australia and the Philippines

Using Landsat imagery, forest canopy density (FCD) estimated with the FCD Mapper®, was correlated with predominant height (PDH, measured as the average height of the tallest 50 trees per hectare) for 20 field plots measured in native forest at Noosa Heads, south-east Queensland, Australia. A corresponding image was used to calculate FCD in Leyte Island, the Philippines and was validated on the ground for accuracy. The FCD Mapper was produced for the International Tropical Timber Organisation and estimates FCD as an index of canopy density using reflectance characteristics of Landsat Enhanced Thematic (ETM) Mapper images. The FCD Mapper is a ‘semi-expert’ computer program which uses interactive screens to allow the operator to make decisions concerning the classification of land into bare soil, grass and forest. At Noosa, a positive strong nonlinear relationship (r2 = 0.86) was found between FCD and PDH for 15 field plots with variable PDH but complete canopy closure. An additional five field plots were measured in forest with a broken canopy and the software assessed these plots as having a much lower FCD than forest with canopy closure. FCD estimates for forest and agricultural land in the island of Leyte and subsequent field validation showed that at appropriate settings, the FCD Mapper differentiated between tropical rainforest and banana or coconut plantation. These findings suggest that in forests with a closed canopy this remote sensing technique has promise for forest inventory and productivity assessment. The findings also suggest that the software has promise for discriminating between native forest with a complete canopy and forest which has a broken canopy, such as coconut or banana plantation.

Combining GIS and Expert Opinion to Model Landscapes for a Smallholder Forest Extension Program in Leyte, the Philippines

A Geographic Information System (GIS) was used to model datasets of Leyte Island, the Philippines, to identify land which was suitable for a forest extension program on the island. The datasets were modelled to provide maps of the distance of land from cities and towns, land which was a suitable elevation and slope for smallholder forestry and land of various soil types. An expert group was used to assign numeric site suitabilities to the soil types and maps of site suitability were used to assist the selection of municipalities for the provision of extension assistance to smallholders. Modelling of the datasets was facilitated by recent developments of the ArcGIS® suite of computer programs and derivation of elevation and slope was assisted by the availability of digital elevation models (DEM) produced by the Shuttle Radar Topography (SRTM) mission. The usefulness of GIS software as a decision support tool for small-scale forestry extension programs is discussed.