A framework for electricity price spike analysis with advanced data mining methods

There are many techniques for electricity market price forecasting. However, most of them are designed for expected price analysis rather than price spike forecasting. An effective method of predicting the occurrence of spikes has not yet been observed in the literature so far. In this paper, a data mining based approach is presented to give a reliable forecast of the occurrence of price spikes. Combined with the spike value prediction techniques developed by the same authors, the proposed approach aims at providing a comprehensive tool for price spike forecasting. In this paper, feature selection techniques are firstly described to identify the attributes relevant to the occurrence of spikes. A simple introduction to the classification techniques is given for completeness. Two algorithms: support vector machine and probability classifier are chosen to be the spike occurrence predictors and are discussed in details. Realistic market data are used to test the proposed model with promising results.

Advanced precursors in marine biosynthetic study. Part 2: The biosynthesis of isocyanides and isothiocyanates in the tropical marine sponge Axinyssa n.sp.

The biosynthetic origins of the isocyanide and isothiocyanate groups in 9-isocyanop upukeanane (2) and 9-isothiocyanato-pupukeanane (3) are investigated by incorporation of [C-14]-labelled advanced precursors into the sponge Axinyssa n.sp. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Clinicopathological significance of the 'keloid-like' collagen and myxoid stroma in advanced rectal cancer

Aim: To establish the histological categorization of fibrotic stroma which reflects the biological behaviour of advanced rectal cancer. Methods and results: Six hundred and twenty-seven surgically resected cases of advanced rectal carcinoma were examined. We histologically categorized fibrotic stroma in the invasive frontal region into three groups: type A, multiple fine and mature fibres were stratified into layers: type B, broad bands of eosinophilic hyalinized collagen ('keloid-like' collagen) were intermingled: type C, myxoid stroma. Type A stroma was observed in 63% of patients, type B stroma in 25%, type C stroma in 12%.. The incidence of type A stroma decreased in accordance with Dukes stage (98% in Dukes A: 73% in B: 41%, in C1: 29% in C2) and conversely, there was an increase of C type (0%, in Dukes A; 4%, in B: 20% in C1: 54% in C2). Stroma type had a significant correlation with long-term survival (80% of 5-year survival in type A stroma: 54% in type B: 26% in type C). Based on multivariate analysis. it was found that the stromal pattern had independent prognostic value, together with nodal involvement. growth pattern. and lymphocyte infiltration. Conclusions: Tumour fibrotic stroma may play an important role as a regulator of neoplastic behaviour. Pathological categorization of the fibrotic stroma is helpful for predicting the prognostic outcome of patients with rectal carcinoma.

Linguistic evaluation method for the environmental assessment of infrastructure projects

A soft linguistic evaluation method is proposed for the environmental assessment of physical infrastructure projects based on fuzzy relations. Infrastructure projects are characterized in terms of linguistic expressions of 'performance' with respect to factors or impacts and the 'importance' of those factors/impacts. A simple example is developed to illustrate the method in the context of three road infrastructure projects assessed against five factors/impacts. In addition, a means to include hard or crisp factors is presented and illustrated with respect to a sixth factor.

Effects of BDF 9198 on left ventricular contractility in advanced spontaneously hypertensive rats with heart failure

In the first part of this study, we characterized 24-month-old Wistar Kyoto (WKY) rats and spontaneously hypertensive rats (SHRs), their heart weights, and the responses of the isolated left ventricles to electrical stimulation. In the main part of the study, we tested whether the positive inotropic effects of BDF 9198, which prevents the closure of the cardiac sodium channel, were present in senescence and heart failure. Thus, we studied the effects of BDF 9198 on the left ventricle strips of 24-month-old WKY rats (senescence) and SHRs using contractility methods. In comparison with WKY rats, the left ventricles of 24-month-old SHRs were hypertrophied and had prolonged times to peak contraction. BDF 9198 (10(-8) to 10(-6) m) was a positive inotrope on the left ventricles of WKY rats, with a maximum augmenting effect of 122% with BDF 9198 at 10(-7) m. The magnitude of the augmenting effects of BDF 9198 were reduced in SHR heart failure, with a maximum augmenting effect of 26% at 10(-7) m. BDF 9198 at 10(-6) m attenuated the responses of the SHR left ventricle to electrical stimulation. In conclusion, the potential of drugs that prevent closure of the sodium channel as positive inotropes in the treatment of heart failure should be further considered.

An advanced method for eliminating impacts from frequency deviations in power system signal processing

Frequency deviation is a common problem for power system signal processing. Many power system measurements are carried out in a fixed sampling rate assuming the system operates in its nominal frequency (50 or 60 Hz). However, the actual frequency may deviate from the normal value from time to time due to various reasons such as disturbances and subsequent system transients. Measurement of signals based on a fixed sampling rate may introduce errors under such situations. In order to achieve high precision signal measurement appropriate algorithms need to be employed to reduce the impact from frequency deviation in the power system data acquisition process. This paper proposes an advanced algorithm to enhance Fourier transform for power system signal processing. The algorithm is able to effectively correct frequency deviation under fixed sampling rate. Accurate measurement of power system signals is essential for the secure and reliable operation of power systems. The algorithm is readily applicable to such occasions where signal processing is affected by frequency deviation. Both mathematical proof and numerical simulation are given in this paper to illustrate robustness and effectiveness of the proposed algorithm. Crown Copyright (C) 2003 Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.