Stochastic dynamic programming for election timing: A game theory approach

In this paper, we consider dynamic programming for the election timing in the majoritarian parliamentary system such as in Australia, where the government has a constitutional right to call an early election. This right can give the government an advantage to remain in power for as long as possible by calling an election, when its popularity is high. On the other hand, the opposition's natural objective is to gain power, and it will apply controls termed as "boosts" to reduce the chance of the government being re-elected by introducing policy and economic responses. In this paper, we explore equilibrium solutions to the government, and the opposition strategies in a political game using stochastic dynamic programming. Results are given in terms of the expected remaining life in power, call and boost probabilities at each time at any level of popularity.

Attitudes and practices of general practitioners in the diagnosis and management of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder

Objective: To assess understanding of, and actual and potential roles in management of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) among GPs. Methods: A cross-sectional questionnaire survey of Queensland GPs selected randomly from the Royal Australian College of General Practitioners directory of members was carried out. Main outcome measures were knowledge levels of ADHD, current management practices, referral patterns and self-perceived information and training needs. Results: Three hundred and ninety-nine GPs returned a completed questionnaire (response rate 76%). Roles identified by GPs were: the provisional diagnosis of ADHD and referral to specialist services for confirmation of the diagnosis and initiation of management; assistance with monitoring progress once a management plan was in place; education of the child and their family regarding the disorder; and liaison with the school where necessary. Perceived barriers to increased involvement of GPs were: time and resource constraints of general practice; concerns regarding abuse and addiction liability of prescription stimulants; complex diagnostic issues associated with childhood behavioural problems; and lack of training and education regarding ADHD. Conclusions: General practitioners identify a role for themselves in ADHD care that is largely supportive in nature and involves close liaison with specialist services.

A mathematical model for Escherichia coli debris size reduction during high pressure homogenisation based on grinding theory

Experimental data for E. coli debris size reduction during high-pressure homogenisation at 55 MPa are presented. A mathematical model based on grinding theory is developed to describe the data. The model is based on first-order breakage and compensation conditions. It does not require any assumption of a specified distribution for debris size and can be used given information on the initial size distribution of whole cells and the disruption efficiency during homogenisation. The number of homogeniser passes is incorporated into the model and used to describe the size reduction of non-induced stationary and induced E. coil cells during homogenisation. Regressing the results to the model equations gave an excellent fit to experimental data ( > 98.7% of variance explained for both fermentations), confirming the model's potential for predicting size reduction during high-pressure homogenisation. This study provides a means to optimise both homogenisation and disc-stack centrifugation conditions for recombinant product recovery. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd.

Knowledge about a species' conservation status and funding for its preservation: Analysis

Using a species’ population to measure its conservation status, this note explores how an increase in knowledge about this status would change the public’s willingness to donate funds for its conservation. This is done on the basis that the relationship between the level of donations and a species’ conservation status satisfies stated general mathematical properties. This level of donation increases, on average, with greater knowledge of a species’ conservation status if it is endangered, but falls if it is secure. Game theory and other theory is used to show how exaggerating the degree of endangerment of a species can be counterproductive for conservation.

Knowledge about a Species' Conservation Status and Funding for its Preservation: Analysis

Using a species' population to measure its conservation status, this paper explores how increased knowledge about a species' status changes the public's willingness to donate funds for its conservation. This is based on the behavioral relationship between the level of donations and a species' conservation status satisfying general mathematical properties. This level of donation increases, on average, with greater knowledge of a species' conservation status if it is endangered, but falls if it is secure. Modelling enables individuals' demand for extra information about the conservation status of species to be specified. While this model may suggest that conservation bodies could boost funds for conservation of species by exaggerating species' endangerment, such a strategy is shown to be potentially counterproductive. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Strategic argumentation: A game theoretical investigation

Argumentation is modelled as a game where the payoffs are measured in terms of the probability that the claimed conclusion is, or is not, defeasibly provable, given a history of arguments that have actually been exchanged, and given the probability of the factual premises. The probability of a conclusion is calculated using a standard variant of Defeasible Logic, in combination with standard probability calculus. It is a new element of the present approach that the exchange of arguments is analysed with game theoretical tools, yielding a prescriptive and to some extent even predictive account of the actual course of play. A brief comparison with existing argument-based dialogue approaches confirms that such a prescriptive account of the actual argumentation has been almost lacking in the approaches proposed so far.

New methods for determining quasi-stationary distributions for Markov chains

We shall be concerned with the problem of determining quasi-stationary distributions for Markovian models directly from their transition rates Q. We shall present simple conditions for a mu-invariant measure m for Q to be mu-invariant for the transition function, so that if m is finite, it can be normalized to produce a quasi-stationary distribution. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.