Advances in application of climate prediction in agriculture

Agricultural ecosystems and their associated business and government systems are diverse and varied. They range from farms, to input supply businesses, to marketing and government policy systems, among others. These systems are dynamic and responsive to fluctuations in climate. Skill in climate prediction offers considerable opportunities to managers via its potential to realise system improvements (i.e. increased food production and profit and/or reduced risks). Realising these opportunities, however, is not straightforward as the forecasting skill is imperfect and approaches to applying the existing skill to management issues have not been developed and tested extensively. While there has been much written about impacts of climate variability, there has been relatively little done in relation to applying knowledge of climate predictions to modify actions ahead of likely impacts. However, a considerable body of effort in various parts of the world is now being focused on this issue of applying climate predictions to improve agricultural systems. In this paper, we outline the basis for climate prediction, with emphasis on the El Nino-Southern Oscillation phenomenon, and catalogue experiences at field, national and global scales in applying climate predictions to agriculture. These diverse experiences are synthesised to derive general lessons about approaches to applying climate prediction in agriculture. The case studies have been selected to represent a diversity of agricultural systems and scales of operation. They also represent the on-going activities of some of the key research and development groups in this field around the world. The case studies include applications at field/farm scale to dryland cropping systems in Australia, Zimbabwe, and Argentina. This spectrum covers resource-rich and resource-poor farming with motivations ranging from profit to food security. At national and global scale we consider possible applications of climate prediction in commodity forecasting (wheat in Australia) and examine implications on global wheat trade and price associated with global consequences of climate prediction. In cataloguing these experiences we note some general lessons. Foremost is the value of an interdisciplinary systems approach in connecting disciplinary Knowledge in a manner most suited to decision-makers. This approach often includes scenario analysis based oil simulation with credible models as a key aspect of the learning process. Interaction among researchers, analysts and decision-makers is vital in the development of effective applications all of the players learn. Issues associated with balance between information demand and supply as well as appreciation of awareness limitations of decision-makers, analysts, and scientists are highlighted. It is argued that understanding and communicating decision risks is one of the keys to successful applications of climate prediction. We consider that advances of the future will be made by better connecting agricultural scientists and practitioners with the science of climate prediction. Professions involved in decision making must take a proactive role in the development of climate forecasts if the design and use of climate predictions are to reach their full potential. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Marx as a Critical Discourse Analyst: The genesis of a critical method and its relevance to the critique of global capital

In this paper we identify elements in Marx´s economic and political writings that are relevant to contemporary critical discourse analysis (CDA). We argue that Marx can be seen to be e n gaging in a form of discourse analysis. We identify the elements in Marx´s historical materialist method that support such a perspective, and exemplify these in a longitudinal comparison of Marx´s texts.

Can medical education be fun as well as educational?

Today's challenge to medical educators is to provide continuing education that supports excellence in clinical practice while finding new approaches to make learning more stimulating, motivating, and entertaining. At our hospital we are experimenting with innovative teaching techniques, incorporating games and debate, which encapsulate core concepts of the theory of adult learning: active participation by learners, application of knowledge, informal presentation, and feedback(1).

The relative importance of domestic and global factors in explaining Australian stock returns

In this study, we explore the relative importance of the several documented factors in explaining the behaviour of stock returns for a sample of 157 Australian companies over the period 1993–9. In line with prior evidence, we contend that the influence of global (market, industry and currency) factors is related to the extent of a firm's international activity. We find that Australian firms are in large part impacted by domestic factors with the level of sensitivity declining as the level of international activity increases. In contrast to prior literature, we also show that Australian firm returns are related to regional market, global industry and currency factors and the firm's sensitivity to these factors is an increasing function of its level of international activities.

Global distribution and genetic discontinuities of mangroves - emerging patterns in the evolution of Rhizophora

Mangroves are often described as a group of plants with common features and common origins based mostly on their broad distributional patterns, together with an erroneous view of comparable abilities in long-distance dispersal. However, whilst mangroves have common needs to adapt to rigorous environmental constraints associated with regular seawater inundation, individual taxa have developed different strategies and characteristics. Since mangroves are a genetically diverse group of mostly flowering plants, they may also have evolved at quite different geological periods, dispersed at different rates from different locations and developed different adaptive strategies. Current distributions of individual taxa show numerous instances of unusual extant distribution which demonstrate finite dispersal limitations, especially across open water. Our preliminary assessment of broad distribution and discontinuities reveals important patterns. Discontinuities, in the absence of current dispersal barriers, may be explained by persistent past barriers. As we learn more about discontinuities, we are beginning to appreciate their immense implications and what they might tell us about past geological conditions and how these might have influenced the distribution and evolution of mangroves. In this article, we describe emerging patterns in genetic relationships and distributions based on both current knowledge and preliminary results of our studies of molecular and morphometric characteristics of Rhizophora species in the Indo West Pacific region.