Breast cancer five-year survival, by New South Wales regions, 1980 to 1991

Breast cancer five-year relative survival was calculated for 16 urban and rural regions in New South Wales (NSW) for cases incident in 1980-1991. Survival analysis employed cancer registry data linked with the death register, and age- and period-matched regional mortality of NSW women, Proportional hazard regression analysis was used to compare excess mortality in breast cancer cases in each region. The effect of region was significant (P < 0.05) in the analysis, after age and the follow-up variable (and their intel action) were adjusted for, although no region was significantly different from the referent group (chosen because of average relative five-year survival). When degree of spread and its interactions were entered into che model, the effect of region became nonsignificant. A significant linear trend (P < 0.05) in the adjusted relative risk for excess mortality in breast cancer cases was noted when regions were divided into quartiles based on socioeconomic status, with higher relative risk in low-socioeconomic-status groups; this effect also disappeared with adjustment for degree of spread at diagnosis. There was no general effect of rurality versus capital city or other metropolitan centres. This study demonstrates a small effect of region of residence and implied socioeconomic status on breast cancer survival in NSW women, but this becomes nonsignificant when the data are adjusted for degree of spread at diagnosis, This suggests that earlier diagnosis would he of benefit in reducing minor inequalities in breast cancer survival in NSW women.

Conformational dynamics of thyroid hormones by variable temperature nuclear magnetic resonance: The role of side chain rotations and cisoid/transoid interconversions

H-1 NMR spectra of the thyroid hormone thyroxine recorded at low temperature and high field show splitting into two peaks of the resonance due to the H2,6 protons of the inner (tyrosyl) ring. A single resonance is observed in 600 MHz spectra at temperatures above 185 K. An analysis of the line shape as a function of temperature shows that the coalescence phenomenon is due to an exchange process with a barrier of 37 kJ mol(-1). This is identical to the barrier for coalescence of the H2',6' protons of the outer (phenolic) ring reported previously for the thyroid hormones and their analogues. It is proposed that the separate peaks at low temperature are due to resonances for H2,6 in cisoid and transoid conformers which are populated in approximately equal populations. These two peaks are averaged resonances for the individual H2 and H6 protons. Conversion of cisoid to transoid forms can occur via rotation of either the alanyl side chain or the outer ring, from one face of the inner ring to the other. It is proposed that the latter process is the one responsible for the observed coalescence phenomenon. The barrier to rotation of the alanyl side chain is greater than or equal to 37 kJ mol(-1), which is significantly larger than has previously been reported for Csp(2)-Csp(3) bonds in other Ph-CH2-X systems. The recent crystal structure of a hormone agonist bound to the ligand-binding domain of the rat thyroid hormone receptor (Wagner et al. Nature 1995, 378, 690-697) shows the transoid form to be the bound conformation. The significant energy barrier to cisoid/transoid interconversion determined in the current study combined with the tight fit of the hormone to its receptor suggests that interconversion between the forms cannot occur at the receptor site but that selection for the preferred bound form occurs from the 50% population of the transoid form in solution.

Forecasting regional crop production using SOI phases: an example for the Australian peanut industry

Using peanuts as an example, a generic methodology is presented to forward-estimate regional crop production and associated climatic risks based on phases of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Yield fluctuations caused by a highly variable rainfall environment are of concern to peanut processing and marketing bodies. The industry could profitably use forecasts of likely production to adjust their operations strategically. Significant, physically based lag-relationships exist between an index of ocean/atmosphere El Nino/Southern Oscillation phenomenon and future rainfall in Australia and elsewhere. Combining knowledge of SOI phases in November and December with output from a dynamic simulation model allows the derivation of yield probability distributions based on historic rainfall data. This information is available shortly after planting a crop and at least 3-5 months prior to harvest. The study shows that in years when the November-December SOI phase is positive there is an 80% chance of exceeding average district yields. Conversely, in years when the November-December SOI phase is either negative or rapidly falling there is only a 5% chance of exceeding average district yields, but a 95% chance of below average yields. This information allows the industry to adjust strategically for the expected volume of production. The study shows that simulation models can enhance SOI signals contained in rainfall distributions by discriminating between useful and damaging rainfall events. The methodology can be applied to other industries and regions.

Estimating correlations from epidemiological data in the presence of measurement error

Analysis of a major multi-site epidemiologic study of heart disease has required estimation of the pairwise correlation of several measurements across sub-populations. Because the measurements from each sub-population were subject to sampling variability, the Pearson product moment estimator of these correlations produces biased estimates. This paper proposes a model that takes into account within and between sub-population variation, provides algorithms for obtaining maximum likelihood estimates of these correlations and discusses several approaches for obtaining interval estimates. (C) 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.