A Comparison of Bayesian and Sampling Theory Inferences in a Probit Model

HE PROBIT MODEL IS A POPULAR DEVICE for explaining binary choice decisions in econometrics. It has been used to describe choices such as labor force participation, travel mode, home ownership, and type of education. These and many more examples can be found in papers by Amemiya (1981) and Maddala (1983). Given the contribution of economics towards explaining such choices, and given the nature of data that are collected, prior information on the relationship between a choice probability and several explanatory variables frequently exists. Bayesian inference is a convenient vehicle for including such prior information. Given the increasing popularity of Bayesian inference it is useful to ask whether inferences from a probit model are sensitive to a choice between Bayesian and sampling theory techniques. Of interest is the sensitivity of inference on coefficients, probabilities, and elasticities. We consider these issues in a model designed to explain choice between fixed and variable interest rate mortgages. Two Bayesian priors are employed: a uniform prior on the coefficients, designed to be noninformative for the coefficients, and an inequality restricted prior on the signs of the coefficients. We often know, a priori, whether increasing the value of a particular explanatory variable will have a positive or negative effect on a choice probability. This knowledge can be captured by using a prior probability density function (pdf) that is truncated to be positive or negative. Thus, three sets of results are compared:those from maximum likelihood (ML) estimation, those from Bayesian estimation with an unrestricted uniform prior on the coefficients, and those from Bayesian estimation with a uniform prior truncated to accommodate inequality restrictions on the coefficients.

The public's knowledge of and support for conservation of Australia's Tree-Kangaroos

After providing some brief background on Dendrolagus species in Australia, two consecutive surveys of Brisbane’s residents are used to assess public knowledge of tree-kangaroos and the stated degree of support for their conservation in Australia. The responses of participants in Survey I are based on their pre-survey knowledge of wildlife. The same additional set of participants completed Survey II after being provided with information on all the wildlife species mentioned in Survey I. Changes in the attitudes of respondents and their degree of support for the protection and conservation of Australia’s tree-kangaroos are measured, including changes in their contingent valuations and stated willingness to provide financial support for such conservation. Reasons for wanting to protect tree-kangaroos are specified and analyzed. Furthermore, changes that occur in the relative importance of these reasons with increased knowledge are also examined. Support for the conservation of tree-kangaroos is found to increase with the additional knowledge supplied. Furthermore, support for the conservation of Australia’s less well-known tropical mammals is shown to increase relative to better known mammals (icons) present in temperate areas, such as koalas and red kangaroos with this increased knowledge. Possible implications of the results for government conservation policies in Australia are examined.

Influences on knowledge of wildlife species on patterns of willingness to pay for their conservation

Examines the influence of respondents’ knowledge of wildlife species on their willingness to pay for conservation of the individual species. It does so by using data generated by surveys of 204 individuals who participated in a structured experiment in which their knowledge of a selected set of wildlife species was increased. The species selected were Australian ones, mostly but not entirely, tropical ones. The species were divided into three taxa for the experiment; reptiles, mammals and birds. Each set of species in the taxa included some species expected to be poorly known initially and some anticipated to be well known. Respondents rated their knowledge of each species on a Likert scale, and changes in their average allocation of funds for the conservation of each species were examined as their knowledge increased. Some general relationships are observed.

What role does knowledge of wildlife play in providing support for species' conservation?

Conservation of biodiversity is a complex issue. Apart from the creation of nature reserves, there is a plethora of other factors that are part of this complex web. One such factor is the public knowledge of species. Since public funding is imperative for the conservation of species and creation of reserves for them it is important to determine the public’s awareness of species and their knowledge about them. In the absence of such awareness and knowledge, it is possible that the public may misallocate their support. In other words, resources may be provided for species that do not need support urgently. We show how availability of balanced information about species helps the public to make rational decisions and to allocate support (e.g. monetary) to species that need it most. Other implications of a ‘wildlife knowledgeable’ public are also discussed.

How knowledge affects payment to conserve an endangered bird

The paper reports the findings of an experimental survey conducted to determine the public's willingness to pay (WTP) for the protection and conservation of the golden-shouldered parrot in Australia. This parrot is endemic to Australia and is one of Australia's most endangered birds. The paper examines the public's knowledge of this parrot and compares it with other endangered birds as well as common birds and the public's WTP for conservation from a hypothetical allocation of money based on their current knowledge. We then examine how this allocation changes with increased knowledge about all species.

Izergin-Korepin model with a boundary

The Izergin-Korepin model on a semi-infinite lattice is diagonalized by using the level-one vertex operators of the twisted quantum affine algebra U-q[((2))(2)]. We give the bosonization of the vacuum state with zero particle content. Excitation states are given by the action of the vertex operators on the vacuum state. We derive the boundary S-matrix. We give an integral expression of the correlation functions of the boundary model, and derive the difference equations which they satisfy. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.