Impact numbers: measures of risk factor impact on the whole population from case-control and cohort studies

Objective: To describe new measures of risk from case-control and cohort studies, which are simple to understand and relate to numbers of the population at risk. Design: Theoretical development of new measures of risk. Setting: Review of literature and previously described measures. Main results: The new measures are: (1) the population impact number (PIN), the number of those in the whole population among whom one case is attributable to the exposure or risk factor (this is equivalent to the reciprocal of the population attributable risk),- (2) the case impact number (CIN) the number of people with the disease or outcome for whom one case will be attributable to the exposure or risk factor (this is equivalent to the reciprocal of the population attributable fraction); (3) the exposure impact number (EIN) the number of people with the exposure among whom one excess case is attributable to the exposure (this is equivalent to the reciprocal of the attributable risk); (4) the exposed cases impact number (ECIN) the number of exposed cases among whom one case is attributable to the exposure (this is equivalent to the reciprocal of the aetiological fraction). The impact number reflects the number of people in each population (the whole population, the cases, all those exposed, and the exposed cases) among whom one case is attributable to the particular risk factor. Conclusions: These new measures should help communicate the impact on a population, of estimates of risk derived from cohort or case-control studies.

Food safety and development of the beef industry in China

Food safety concerns have escalated in China as they have elsewhere, especially in relation to meats. Beef production and consumption has increased proportionately faster than all other meats over the last two decades. Yet the slaughtering, processing and marketing of beef remains, for the most part, extremely primitive when compared with Western beef supply chains. By comparing the economics of household slaughtering with that of various types of abattoirs, this paper explains why household slaughtering and wet markets still dominate beef processing and distribution in China. The negative economic, social and industry development implications of enforcing more stringent food safety regulations are highlighted. The willingness/capacity of consumers to pay the added cost of better inspection and other services to guarantee food safety is investigated. In this context, the paper also evaluates the market opportunities for both domestic and imported Green Beef. The paper questions the merit of policy initiatives aimed at modernising Chinese beef supply chains for the mass market along Western lines. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Transport safety for older people: A study of their experiences, perceptions and management needs

With evidence of increasing accident risk due to age-related declines in health and cognition affecting driver performance, there is a need for research promoting safe mobility of older people. The present study aimed to identify transport options and licensing issues for a group of older people in an Australian community. Ninety-five participants aged 75 and over were interviewed about their driving status and accident record and tested for cognitive ability. After stratification on cognitive level and driver status (current, ex-driver or non-driver), 30 were selected for further in-depth interviews concerning demographics, licence status and impact of change, travel options available and used, and travel characteristics. Considerable reliance on the motor vehicle as the mode of transport and the decision to cease driving were major quality-of-life issues. There was little evidence of planning and support in making the decision to stop driving. Some differences in transport decisions on the basis of cognitive level were evident; however, people with severely compromised cognitive ability (and, therefore, unable to give informed consent) had been excluded. The study suggested the need for resources to assist older people/carers/health professionals to plan for the transition from driver to non-driver and to manage alternative transport options more effectively

Production of mosquitoes in rainwater tanks and wells on Yorke Island, Torres Strait: Preliminary study

The Torres Strait in northernmost Queensland, Australia, is subject to periodic outbreaks of dengue. A large outbreak of dengue 2 in 1996-97 affected five islands, resulting in 200 confirmed cases. On most of the affected islands, rainwater tanks were a common breeding site for vector mosquitoes. Rainwater tanks, wells and household containers filled with water are the most common breeding sites for dengue mosquitoes (Aedes aegypti), the primary vector of dengue in Queensland. We report on surveys conducted in February 2002 to measure the productivity of rainwater tanks and wells on Yorke Is. (Torres Strait), the first time the productivity of rainwater tanks has been measured in Australia. Of 60 rainwater tanks sampled, 10 had broken screens. Using a sticky emergence trap, 179 adult mosquitoes were collected, consisting of 63 Aedes scutellaris and 116 Culex quinquefasciatus. One unscreened tank produced 177 (99%) of the adults. A plankton net was used to sample 16 wells; 12 positive wells yielded 111 immature (larvae and pupae) mosquitoes, consisting of 57% and 43% Ae. scutellaris and Cx. quinquefasciatus, respectively. The apparent displacement of Ae. aegypti by Ae. scutellaris is discussed. Measures to reduce the likelihood of future dengue outbreaks are recommended.

Minor physical anomalies and quantitative measures of the head and face in patients with psychosis

Background: The aim of this study was to examine minor physical anomalies and quantitative measures of the head and face in patients with psychosis vs healthy controls. Methods: Based on a comprehensive prevalence study of psychosis, we recruited 310 individuals with psychosis and 303 controls. From this sample, we matched 180 case-control pairs for age and sex. Individual minor physical anomalies and quantitative measures related to head size and facial height and depth were compared within the matched pairs. Based on all subjects, we examined the specificity of the findings by comparing craniofacial summary scores in patients with nonaffective or affective psychosis and controls. Results: The odds of having a psychotic disorder were increased in those with wider skull bases (odds ratio [OR], 1.40; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.02-1.17), smaller lower-facial heights (glabella to subnasal) (OR, 0.57; 95% CI, 0.44-0.75), protruding ears (OR, 1.72; 95% CI, 1.05-2.82), and shorter (OR, 2.29; 95% CI, 1.37-3.82) and wider (OR, 2.28; 95% CI, 1.43-3.65) palates. Compared with controls, those with psychotic disorder had skulls that were more brachycephalic. These differences were found to distinguish patients with nonaffective and affective psychoses from controls. Conclusions: Several of the features that differentiate patients from controls relate to the development of the neuro-basicranial complex and the adjacent temporal and frontal lobes. Future research should examine both the temporal lobe and the middle cranial fossa to reconcile our anthropomorphic findings and the literature showing smaller temporal lobes in patients with schizophrenia. Closer attention to the skull base may provide clues to the nature and timing of altered brain development in patients with psychosis.

Direction of Causation Modeling Between Cross-Sectional Measures of Parenting and Psychological Distress in Female Twins

Under certain conditions, cross-sectional analysis of cross-twin intertrait correlations can provide important information about the direction of causation (DOC) between two variables. A community-based sample of Australian female twins aged 18 to 45 years was mailed an extensive Health and Lifestyle Questionnaire (HLQ) that covered a wide range of personality and behavioral measures. Included were self-report measures of recent psychological distress and perceived childhood environment (PBI). Factor analysis of the PBI yielded three interpretable dimensions: Coldness, Overprotection, and Autonomy. Univariate analysis revealed that parental Overprotection and Autonomy were best explained by additive genetic, shared, and nonshared environmental effects (ACE), whereas the best-fitting model for PBI Coldness and the three measures of psychological distress (Depression, Phobic Anxiety, and Somatic Distress) included only additive genetic and nonshared environmental effects (AE). A common pathway model best explained the covariation between (1) the three PBI dimensions and (2) the three measures of psychological distress. DOC modeling between latent constructs of parenting and psychological distress revealed that a model which specified recollected parental behavior as the cause of psychological distress provided a better fit than a model which specified psychological distress as the cause of recollected parental behavior. Power analyses and limitations of the findings are discussed.