Modelling basin level allocation of water in the Murray-Darling Basin in a world of uncertainty, Murray-Darling Program Working Papers WPM05-1, Risk and Sustainable Management Group, 8 February 2005

Abstract: The Murray-Darling Basin comprises over 1 million km2; it lies within four states and one territory; and over 12, 800 GL of irrigation water is used to produce over 40% of the nation's gross value of agricultural production. This production is used by a diverse collection of some-times mutually exclusive commodities (e.g. pasture; stone fruit; grapes; cotton and field crops). The supply of water for irrigation is subject to climatic and policy uncertainty. Variable inflows mean that water property rights do not provide a guaranteed supply. With increasing public scrutiny and environmental issues facing irrigators, greater pressure is being placed on this finite resource. The uncertainty of the water supply, water quality (salinity), combined with where water is utilised, while attempting to maximising return for investment makes for an interesting research field. The utilisation and comparison of a GAMS and Excel based modelling approach has been used to ask: where should we allocate water?; amongst what commodities?; and how does this affect both the quantity of water and the quality of water along the Murray-Darling river system?

Cigarette smoking and risk of epithelial ovarian cancer (Australia)

Objectives: We studied the association between cigarette smoking and ovarian cancer in a population-based case-control study. Methods: A total of 794 women with histologically confirmed epithelial ovarian cancer who were aged 18-79 years and resident in one of three Australian states were interviewed, together with 855 controls aged 18-79 years selected at random from the electoral roll from the same states. Information was obtained about cigarette smoking and other factors including age, parity, oral contraceptive use, and reproductive factors. We estimated the relative risk of ovarian cancer associated with cigarette smoking, accounting for histologic type, using multivariable logistic regression to adjust for confounding factors. Results: Women who had ever smoked cigarettes were more likely to develop ovarian cancer than women who had never smoked (adjusted odds ratio (OR) = 1.5; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.2-1.9). Risk was greater for ovarian cancers of borderline malignancy (OR = 2.4; 95% CI = 1.4-4.1) than for invasive tumors (OR = 1.7; 95% CI = 1.2-2.4) and the histologic subtype most strongly associated overall was the mucinous subtype among both current smokers (OR = 3.2; 95% CI = 1.8-5.7) and past smokers (OR = 2.3; 95% CI = 1.3-3.9). Conclusions: These data extend recent findings and suggest that cigarette smoking is a risk factor for ovarian cancer, especially mucinous and borderline mucinous types. From a public health viewpoint, this is one of the few reports of a potentially avoidable risk factor for ovarian cancer.

Reproduction-related risk factors for mucinous and nonmucinous epithelial ovarian cancer

The proposition that mucinous ovarian cancer has an etiology distinct from that of other histologic types has been evaluated using data from a population-based case-control study of epithelial ovarian cancer conducted in 1990-1993 among Australian women aged 18-79 years. The protective effects of parity and oral contraceptive use were greater in nonmucinous than in mucinous ovarian tumors. However, these differences appeared to be driven largely by the effect of ovulatory life, which was positively associated with nonmucinous tumors only. An association with family history of breast and/or ovarian cancer also appeared to be restricted to nonmucinous cancers. These results lend support to the hypothesis that mucinous and nonmucinous ovarian tumors develop via different causal mechanisms.

A single nucleotide polymorphism in the 5' untranslated region of RAD51 and risk of cancer among BRCA1/2 mutation carriers

RAD51 colocalizes with both BRCA1 and BRCA2, and genetic variants in RAD51 would be candidate BRCA1/2 modifiers. We searched for RAD51 polymorphisms by sequencing 20 individuals. We compared the polymorphism allele frequencies between female BRCA1/2 mutation carriers with and without breast or ovarian cancer and between population-based ovarian cancer cases with BRCA1/2 mutations to cases and controls without mutations. We discovered two single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) at positions 135 g-->c and 172 g-->t of the 5' untranslated region. In an initial group of BRCA1/2 mutation carriers, 14 (21%) of 67 breast cancer cases carried a c allele at RAD51:135 g-->c, whereas 8 (7%) of 119 women without breast cancer carried this allele. In a second set of 466 mutation carriers from three centers, the association of RAD51:135 g-->c with breast cancer risk was not confirmed. Analyses restricted to the 216 BRCA2 mutation carriers, however, showed a statistically significant association of the 135 c allele with the risk of breast cancer (adjusted odds ratio, 3.2; 95% confidence limit, 1.4-40). BRCA1/2 mutation carriers with ovarian cancer were only about one half as likely to carry the RAD51:135 g-->c SNP. Analysis of the RAD51:135 g-->c SNP in 738 subjects from an Israeli ovarian cancer case-control study was consistent with a lower risk of ovarian cancer among BRCA1/2 mutation carriers with the c allele. We have identified a RAD51 5' untranslated region SNP that may be associated with an increased risk of breast cancer and a lower risk of ovarian cancer among BRCA2 mutation carriers. The biochemical basis of this risk modifier is currently unknown.

Cancer culture: Epidemics, human behaviour and the dubious search for new risk factors

The rise of melanoma and the almost complete decline of stomach cancer clearly reflect disturbances of human culture during the 20th century. Environmental factors play a dominant role in the epidemiology of melanoma and many other malignancies.

Long-term outcomes of genetic counseling in women at increased risk of developing hereditary breast cancer Information,

This multicenter study evaluated the impact of genetic counseling in 218 women at risk of developing hereditary breast cancer. Women were assessed prior to counseling and 12-month post-counseling using self-administered, mailed questionnaires. Compared to baseline, breast cancer genetics knowledge was increased significantly at follow-up. and greater increases in knowledge were associated with educational level. Breast cancer anxiety decreased significantly from baseline to follow-up, and these decreases were associated with improvements in perceived risk. A significant decrease in clinical breast examination was observed at the 12-month follow-up. Findings suggest that women with a family history of breast cancer benefit from attending familial cancer clinics as it leads to increases in breast cancer genetics knowledge and decreases in breast cancer anxiety. The lowered rates of clinical breast examination indicate that the content of genetic counseling may need to be reviewed to ensure that women receive and take away the right message. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Body size and risk of extinction in Australian mammals

The link between body size and risk of extinction has been the focus of much recent attention. For Australian terrestrial mammals this link is of particular interest because it is widely believed that species in the intermediate size range of 35-5500 g (the critical weight range) have been the most prone to recent extinction. But the relationship between body size and extinction risk in Australian mammals has never been subject to a robust statistical analysis. Using a combination of randomization tests and phylogenetic comparative analyses, we found that Australian mammal extinctions and declines have been nonrandom with respect to body size, but we reject the hypothesis of a critical weight range at intermediate sizes. Small species appear to be the least prone to extinction, but extinctions have not been significantly clustered around intermediate sizes. Our results suggest that hypotheses linking intermediate body size with high risk of extinction in Australian mammals are misguided and that the focus of future research should shift to explaining why the smallest species are the most resistant to extinction.

Highlights of drought policy and related science in Australia and the USA

Patterns of water supply and use in Australia and the U.S.A. differ in many ways. This results in different perceptions concerning the nature of drought and policy approaches to its management. This paper discusses the differences and similarities and explores lessons that policy makers in both countries can learn from one another. A key difference between the two countries is that whereas drought is perceived in Australia essentially in terms of its impact on agriculture, in the U.S. both perceptions and policy are also heavily influenced by the impact of drought on urban communities. This has led to different policy emphases. In 1992 Australia established its National Drought Policy; the U.S. is presently considering the adoption of a national drought policy. These policies highlight drought being accepted as part of natural climate variability, rather than as a natural disaster. They also emphasize the protection of the natural resource base.

A risk-based system to penalize and reward line management for occupational safety and health performance

Penalizing line management for the occurrence of lost time injuries has in some cases had unintended negative consequences. These are discussed. An alternative system is suggested that penalizes line management for accidents where the combination of the probability of recurrence and the maximum reasonable consequences such a recurrence may have exceeds an agreed limit. A reward is given for prompt effective control of the risk to below the agreed risk limit. The reward is smaller than the penalty. High-risk accidents require independent investigation by a safety officer using analytical techniques. Two case examples are given to illustrate the system. Continuous safety improvement is driven by a planned reduction in the agreed risk limit over time and reward for proactive risk assessment and control.