Modelling basin level allocation of water in the Murray-Darling Basin in a world of uncertainty, Murray-Darling Program Working Papers WPM05-1, Risk and Sustainable Management Group, 8 February 2005

Abstract: The Murray-Darling Basin comprises over 1 million km2; it lies within four states and one territory; and over 12, 800 GL of irrigation water is used to produce over 40% of the nation's gross value of agricultural production. This production is used by a diverse collection of some-times mutually exclusive commodities (e.g. pasture; stone fruit; grapes; cotton and field crops). The supply of water for irrigation is subject to climatic and policy uncertainty. Variable inflows mean that water property rights do not provide a guaranteed supply. With increasing public scrutiny and environmental issues facing irrigators, greater pressure is being placed on this finite resource. The uncertainty of the water supply, water quality (salinity), combined with where water is utilised, while attempting to maximising return for investment makes for an interesting research field. The utilisation and comparison of a GAMS and Excel based modelling approach has been used to ask: where should we allocate water?; amongst what commodities?; and how does this affect both the quantity of water and the quality of water along the Murray-Darling river system?

Should optional properties be used in conceptual modelling? A theory and three empirical tests

An important feature of some conceptual modelling grammars is the features they provide to allow database designers to show real-world things may or may not possess a particular attribute or relationship. In the entity-relationship model, for example, the fact that a thing may not possess an attribute can be represented by using a special symbol to indicate that the attribute is optional. Similarly, the fact that a thing may or may not be involved in a relationship can be represented by showing the minimum cardinality of the relationship as zero. Whether these practices should be followed, however, is a contentious issue. An alternative approach is to eliminate optional attributes and relationships from conceptual schema diagrams by using subtypes that have only mandatory attributes and relationships. In this paper, we first present a theory that led us to predict that optional attributes and relationships should be used in conceptual schema diagrams only when users of the diagrams require a surface-level understanding of the domain being represented by the diagrams. When users require a deep-level understanding, however, optional attributes and relationships should not be used because they undermine users' abilities to grasp important domain semantics. We describe three experiments which we then undertook to test our predictions. The results of the experiments support our predictions.

Analysis of thermodynamic non-ideality in terms of protein solvation

The effects of thermodynamic non-ideality on the forms of sedimentation equilibrium distributions for several isoelectric proteins have been analysed on the statistical-mechanical basis of excluded volume to obtain an estimate of the extent of protein solvation. Values of the effective solvation. parameter delta are reported for ellipsoidal as well as spherical models of the proteins, taken to be rigid, impenetrable macromolecular structures. The dependence of the effective solvated radius upon protein molecular mass exhibits reasonable agreement with the relationship calculated for a model in which the unsolvated protein molecule is surrounded by a 0.52-nm solvation shell. Although the observation that this shell thickness corresponds to a double layer of water molecules may be of questionable relevance to mechanistic interpretation of protein hydration, it augurs well for the assignment of magnitudes to the second virial coefficients of putative complexes in the quantitative characterization of protein-protein interactions under conditions where effects of thermodynamic non-ideality cannot justifiably be neglected. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Studies of solute self-association by sedimentation equilibrium: allowance for effects of thermodynamic non-ideality beyond the consequences of nearest-neighbor interactions

A sedimentation equilibrium study of a-chymotrypsin self-association in acetate-chloride buffer, pH 4.1 I 0.05, has been used to illustrate determination of a dimerization constant under conditions where thermodynamic non-ideality is manifested beyond the consequences of nearest-neighbor interactions. Because the expressions for the experimentally determinable interaction parameters comprise a mixture of equilibrium constant and excluded volume terms, the assignment of reasonable magnitudes to the relevant virial coefficients describing non-associative cluster formation is essential for the evaluation of a reliable estimate of the dimerization constant. Determination of these excluded volume parameters by numerical integration over the potential-of-mean-force is shown to be preferable to their calculation by approximate analytical solutions of the integral for this relatively small enzyme monomer with high net charge (+ 10) under conditions of low ionic strength (0.05 M). (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

A formal representation of assumptions in process modelling

In this work, we present a systematic approach to the representation of modelling assumptions. Modelling assumptions form the fundamental basis for the mathematical description of a process system. These assumptions can be translated into either additional mathematical relationships or constraints between model variables, equations, balance volumes or parameters. In order to analyse the effect of modelling assumptions in a formal, rigorous way, a syntax of modelling assumptions has been defined. The smallest indivisible syntactical element, the so called assumption atom has been identified as a triplet. With this syntax a modelling assumption can be described as an elementary assumption, i.e. an assumption consisting of only an assumption atom or a composite assumption consisting of a conjunction of elementary assumptions. The above syntax of modelling assumptions enables us to represent modelling assumptions as transformations acting on the set of model equations. The notion of syntactical correctness and semantical consistency of sets of modelling assumptions is defined and necessary conditions for checking them are given. These transformations can be used in several ways and their implications can be analysed by formal methods. The modelling assumptions define model hierarchies. That is, a series of model families each belonging to a particular equivalence class. These model equivalence classes can be related to primal assumptions regarding the definition of mass, energy and momentum balance volumes and to secondary and tiertinary assumptions regarding the presence or absence and the form of mechanisms within the system. Within equivalence classes, there are many model members, these being related to algebraic model transformations for the particular model. We show how these model hierarchies are driven by the underlying assumption structure and indicate some implications on system dynamics and complexity issues. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Design, modelling and analysis of a six component force balance for hypervelocity wind tunnel testing

A combination of modelling and analysis techniques was used to design a six component force balance. The balance was designed specifically for the measurement of impulsive aerodynamic forces and moments characteristic of hypervelocity shock tunnel testing using the stress wave force measurement technique. Aerodynamic modelling was used to estimate the magnitude and distribution of forces and finite element modelling to determine the mechanical response of proposed balance designs. Simulation of balance performance was based on aerodynamic loads and mechanical responses using convolution techniques. Deconvolution was then used to assess balance performance and to guide further design modifications leading to the final balance design. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modelling cement grinding circuits

Modelling and simulation studies were carried out at 26 cement clinker grinding circuits including tube mills, air separators and high pressure grinding rolls in 8 plants. The results reported earlier have shown that tube mills can be modelled as several mills in series, and the internal partition in tube mills can be modelled as a screen which must retain coarse particles in the first compartment but not impede the flow of drying air. In this work the modelling has been extended to show that the Tromp curve which describes separator (classifier) performance can be modelled in terms of d(50)(corr), by-pass, the fish hook, and the sharpness of the curve. Also the high pressure grinding rolls model developed at the Julius Kruttschnitt Mineral Research Centre gives satisfactory predictions using a breakage function derived from impact and compressed bed tests. Simulation studies of a full plant incorporating a tube mill, HPGR and separators showed that the models could successfully predict the performance of the another mill working under different conditions. The simulation capability can therefore be used for process optimization and design. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Application of heterogeneous vacancy solution theory to characterization of microporous solids

The vacancy solution theory of adsorption is re-formulated here through the mass-action law, and placed in a convenient framework permitting the development of thermodynamic ally consistent isotherms. It is shown that both the multisite Langmuir model and the classical vacancy solution theory expression are special cases of the more general approach when the Flory-Huggins activity coefficient model is used, with the former being the thermodynamically consistent result. The improved vacancy solution theory approach is further extended here to heterogeneous adsorbents by considering the pore-width dependent potential along with a pore size distribution. However, application of the model to numerous hydrocarbons as well as other adsorptives on microporous activated carbons shows that the multisite model has difficulty in the presence of a pore size distribution, because pores of different sizes can have different numbers of adsorbed layers and therefore different site occupancies. On the other hand, use of the classical vacancy solution theory expression for the local isotherm leads to good simultaneous fit of the data, while yielding a site diameter of about 0.257 nm, consistent with that expected for the potential well in aromatic rings on carbon pore surfaces. It is argued that the classical approach is successful because the Flory-Huggins term effectively represents adsorbate interactions in disguise. When used together with the ideal adsorbed solution theory the heterogeneous vacancy solution theory successfully predicts binary adsorption equilibria, and is found to perform better than the multisite Langmuir as well as the heterogeneous Langmuir model. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Probabilistic modelling of CO2 corrosion laboratory data using neural networks

The present paper addresses two major concerns that were identified when developing neural network based prediction models and which can limit their wider applicability in the industry. The first problem is that it appears neural network models are not readily available to a corrosion engineer. Therefore the first part of this paper describes a neural network model of CO2 corrosion which was created using a standard commercial software package and simple modelling strategies. It was found that such a model was able to capture practically all of the trends noticed in the experimental data with acceptable accuracy. This exercise has proven that a corrosion engineer could readily develop a neural network model such as the one described below for any problem at hand, given that sufficient experimental data exist. This applies even in the cases when the understanding of the underlying processes is poor. The second problem arises from cases when all the required inputs for a model are not known or can be estimated with a limited degree of accuracy. It seems advantageous to have models that can take as input a range rather than a single value. One such model, based on the so-called Monte Carlo approach, is presented. A number of comparisons are shown which have illustrated how a corrosion engineer might use this approach to rapidly test the sensitivity of a model to the uncertainities associated with the input parameters. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Coupled experimental and thermodynamic study of the Zn-Fe-Si-O system

Experimental and thermodynamic modeling studies have been carried out on the Zn-Fe-Si-O system. This research is part of a wider program to characterize zinc/lead industrial slags and sinters in the PbO-ZnO-SiO2-CaO-FeO-Fe2O3 system. Experimental investigations involve high-temperature equilibration and quenching techniques followed by electron probe X-ray microanalysis (EPMA). Liquidus temperatures and solid solubilities of the crystalline phases were measured in the temperature range from 1200 °C to 1450 °C (1473 to 1723 K) in the zinc ferrite, zincite, willemite, and tridymite primary-phase fields in the Zn-Fe-Si-O system in air. These equilibrium data for the Zn-Fe-Si-O system in air, combined with previously reported data for this system, were used to obtain an optimized self-consistent set of parameters of thermodynamic models for all phases.