Changing patterns of coronary heart disease in the hunter region of New South Wales, Australia

A population-based observational study of men acid women aged 35-69 years in the Hunter Region of New South Wales, Australia, was conducted to assess the impact. of risk-factor modification and increased drug therapy on the trends in major coronary events and case fatality. From 1985 to 1993, there were 3006 coronary deaths and 6450 nonfatal major coronary events. Rates of death and nonfatal myocardial infarction declined, but there was an increase in hospital admissions for prolonged chess pain. Reductions in cigarette smoking, diastolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, and increased use of aspirin can fully explain the 3.3% (95% confidence interval [CI] 2.4, 4.2) average annual reduction in rates of major coronary events for men and the 4.1% (95% CI 2.7, 5.5) reduction for women. In contrast, increased use of aspirin, beta-blockers, fibrinolytic therapy, and angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors explain less than hall of the 8.9% (95% CI 5.9, 11.8) and 6.9% (95% CI 2.7, 10.9) average annual reduction in case fatality in hospital for men and women, respectively. These trends suggest a decline in severity of coronary heart disease consistent with reductions in risk-factor levels and improved acute medical treatment. J CLIN EPIDEMIOL 52;8:761-771, 1999. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Inc.

Administration of growth hormone or IGF-I to pregnant rats on a reduced diet throughout pregnancy does not prevent fetal intrauterine growth retardation and elevated blood pressure in adult offspring

Increasing evidence from human epidemiological studies suggests that poor growth before birth is associated with postnatal growth retardation and the development of cardiovascular disease in adulthood. We have shown previously that nutritional deprivation in the pregnant rat leads to intrauterine growth retardation (IUGR), postnatal growth failure, changes in the endocrine parameters of the somatotrophic axis, and to increased blood pressure in later life. In the present study, we investigated whether administration of insulin-like growth factor-I (IGF-I) or bovine growth hormone (GH) during pregnancy could prevent IUGR and/or alter long-term outcome. Dams h-om day 1 of pregnancy throughout gestation received a diet of nd libitum available food or a restricted dietary intake of 30% of ad libitum fed dams. From day 10 of gestation, dams were treated for 10 days with three times daily subcutaneous injections of saline (100 mu l), IGF-I (2 mu g/g body weight) or GH (2 mu g/g body weight). Maternal weight gain was significantly increased (P

Variable temperature and pressure study of the aquation reactions of cobalt(III) and chromium(III) penta- and tetra-amines

Preparation of a series of specific penta- and tetra-amine derivatives of Co-III and Cr-III with a neutral leaving ligand has been carried out in order to accomplish a fine tuning of the associativeness/dissociativeness of their substitution reactions. Spontaneous aquation reactions of the neutral ligands have been studied at variable temperature and pressure. Although rate constants and thermal activation parameters show an important degree of scatter, the values determined for the activation volumes of the substitution process illustrate the mechanistic fine tuning that may be achieved for these reactions. In all cases, in the absence of important steric constraints in the molecule, electronic inductive effects seem to be the most important factor accounting for the dissociative shifts observed both for pentaamine (i.e.Delta V double dagger=+4.0 or +14.0 cm(3) mol(-1) and +5.2 or +16.5 cm(3) mol(-1) for the aquation of cis- or trans-[Co(MeNH2)(NH3)(4)(DMF)](3+) and cis- or trans-[CoL15(DMF)](3+) respectively, where L-15 represents a pentaamine macrocyclic ligand), and tetraamine systems (i.e.Delta V double dagger=+4.1 or +8.4 cm(3) mol(-1) and -10.8 or -7.4 cm(3) mol(-1) for the aquation of cis-[Co(NH3)(4)Cl(DMAC)](2+) (DMAC=dimethylacetamide) or cis-[Co(en)(2)Cl(DMAC)](2+) and cis-[Cr(NH3)(4)Cl(DMF)](2+) or cis -[Cr(en)(2)Cl(DMF)](2+)). From the results, clear evidence is obtained which indicates that, only when the situation is borderline I-a/I-d, or the steric demands are increased dramatically, dissociative shifts are observed; in all other cases electronic inductive effects seem to be dominant for such a tuning of the substitution process.

Who fails to complete tuberculosis treatment? Temporal trends and risk factors for treatment interruption in a community-based directly observed therapy programme in a rural district of South Africa

SETTING: Hlabisa Tuberculosis Programme, Hlabisa, South Africa. OBJECTIVE: To determine trends in and risk factors for interruption of tuberculosis treatment. METHODS: Data were extracted from the control programme database starting in 1991. Temporal trends in treatment interruption are described; independent risk factors for treatment interruption were determined with a multiple logistic regression model, and Kaplan-Meier survival curves for treatment interruption were constructed for patients treated in 1994-1995. RESULTS: Overall 629 of 3610 surviving patients (17%) failed to complete treatment; this proportion increased from 11% (n = 79) in 1991/1992 to 22% (n = 201) in 1996. Independent risk factors for treatment interruption were diagnosis between 1994-1996 compared with 1991-1393 (odds ratio [OR] 1.9, 95% confidence interval [CT] 1.6-2.4); human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) positivity compared with HIV negativity (OR 1.8, 95% CI 1.4-2.4); supervised by village clinic compared with community health worker (OR 1.9, 95% CI 1.4-2.6); and male versus female sex (OR 1.3, 95% CI 1.1-1.6). Few patients interrupted treatment during the first 2 weeks, and the treatment interruption rate thereafter was constant at 1% per 14 days. CONCLUSIONS: Frequency of treatment interruption from this programme has increased recently. The strongest risk factor was year of diagnosis, perhaps reflecting the impact of an increased caseload on programme performance. Ensuring adherence to therapy in communities with a high level of migration remains a challenge even within community-based directly observed therapy programmes.

Increased risk of psychosis in rural-born individuals: An Australian catchment-area study

The aim of the Brisbane Psychosis Study was to examine a range of candidate genetic and nongenetic risk factors in a large, representative sample of patients with psychosis and well controls. The patients (n=310) were drawn from a census conducted as part of the National Survey of Mental Health and Wellbeing. An age and sex-matched well control group (n = 303) was drawn from the same catchment area. Candidate risk factors assessed included migrant status of proband and proband's parents, occupation of father at time of proband's birth, place of birth and place of residence during the first 5 years of life (urbanicity), self-reported pregnancy and birth complications, season of birth and family history. The main analyses were group (cases versus controls) comparisons, with planned subgroup analyses (1) group comparisons for Australian-born subjects only, (2) within-patient comparisons of affective versus nonaffective psychoses. Of the individuals with psychosis, 68% had DSMIII-R schizophrenia. In the main analyses, there were no significant group differences on season of birth, place of birth, place of residency in the first 5 years, occupation of fathers at time of birth or pregnancy and birth complications. Patients had significantly more family members with schizophrenia. Significantly fewer of the patients were migrants or offspring of migrants compared to the controls. When only Australianborn subjects were assessed (n=457), the findings were essentially unchanged apart from a significant excess of cases born in rural sites (chi-square=9.54, df3, p=0.02). There were no significant differences in the risk factors for the comparison involving affective versus nonaffective psychoses. Potential explanations for the inverse urban-rural risk gradient are reviewed. The Stanley Foundation supported this project

Response to price and production risk: The case of Australian wheat

A model of Australian wheat grower supply response was specified under the constraints of price and yield uncertainty, risk aversion, partial adjustment, and quadratic costs. The model was solved to obtain area planted. The results of estimation indicate that risk arising from prices and climate have had a significant influence on producer decision making. The coefficient of relative risk aversion and short-run and long-run elasticities of supply with respect to price were calculated. Wheat growers' risk premium, expected at the start of the season for exposed price and yield risk, was 2.8 percent of revenue or 10.4 percent of profit as measured by producer surplus. (C) 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

Risk management for scuba diving operators on Australia's Great Barrier Reef

Australia's Great Barrier Reef is one of the world's most popular scuba diving destinations. Unfortunately, a series of recent diving injuries and deaths has tarnished the region's safety record. In particular, media attention surrounding the disappearance of American divers Thomas and Eileen Lonergan has focused attention on dive operators' legal responsibilities and the consequences of failing to discharge their duty of care to customers. This paper briefly examines the relevant Australian law for recreational diving operations, and reviews risk management strategies that may reduce or prevent the occurrence of future problems. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Australian Burden of Disease Study: measuring the loss of health from diseases, injuries and risk factors

This is an overview of the first burden of disease and injury studies carried out in Australia. Methods developed for the World Bank and World Health Organization Global Burden of Disease Study were adapted and applied to Australian population health data. Depression was found to be the top-ranking cause of non-fatal disease burden in Australia, causing 8% of the total years lost due to disability in 1996. Mental disorders overall were responsible for nearly 30% of the non-fatal disease burden. The leading causes of total disease burden (disability-adjusted life years [DALYs]) were ischaemic heart disease and stroke, together causing nearly 18% of the total disease burden. Depression was the fourth leading cause of disease burden, accounting for 3.7% of the total burden. Of the 10 major risk factors to which the disease burden can be attributed, tobacco smoking causes an estimated 10% of the total disease burden in Australia, followed by physical inactivity (7%).

Changes in intra-abdominal pressure during postural and respiratory activation of the human diaphragm

In humans, when the stability of the trunk is challenged in a controlled manner by repetitive movement of a limb, activity of the diaphragm becomes tonic but is also modulated at the frequency of limb movement. In addition, the tonic activity is modulated by respiration. This study investigated the mechanical output of these components of diaphragm activity. Recordings were made of costal diaphragm, abdominal, and erector spinae muscle electromyographic activity; intra-abdominal, intrathoracic, and transdiaphragmatic pressures; and motion of the rib cage, abdomen, and arm. During limb movement the diaphragm and transversus abdominis were tonically active with added phasic modulation at the frequencies of both respiration and limb movement. Activity of the other trunk muscles was not modulated by respiration. Intra-abdominal pressure was increased during the period of limb movement in proportion to the reactive forces from the movement. These results show that coactivation of the diaphragm and abdominal muscles causes a sustained increase in intra-abdominal pressure, whereas inspiration and expiration are controlled by opposing activity of the diaphragm and abdominal muscles to vary the shape of the pressurized abdominal cavity.

The interaction between the equity premium and the risk-free rate

The equity premium arises from the interaction between the atemporal risk premium for equity, the risk-free rate of intertemporal substitution and the impact of risk on the precautionary motive for saving. Depending on parameter values, the equity premium may either be increased or reduced by the presence of undiversifiable background risk. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science S.A. All rights reserved.

Absolute risk of breast cancer for Australian women with a family history

Background: The purpose of the present paper was to estimate the absolute risk of breast cancer over the remainder of a lifetime in Australian women with different categories of family history. Methods: Age-specific breast cancer incidence rates were adjusted for screening effects, and rates in those with no family history were estimated using the attributable fraction (AF). Relative risks from a published meta-analysis were applied to obtain incidence rates for different categories of family history, and age-specific incidence was converted to cumulative risk of breast cancer. The risk estimates were based upon Australian population statistics and published relative risks. Breast cancer incidence was from New South Wales women for 1996. The AF was calculated using prevalence of a family history of breast cancer from data on Queensland women. The cumulative absolute risk of breast cancer was calculated from decade and mid-decade ages to age 79 years, not adjusted for competing causes of death. Results: Lifetime risk is approximately 8.6% (1 in 12) for the general population and 7.8% (1 in 13) for those without a family history. Women with one relative affected have lifetime risks of 1 in 6-8 and those with two relatives affected have lifetime risks of 1 in 4-6. The cumulative residual lifetime risk decreases with advancing age; by age 60 years all groups with only one relative affected have well above a 90% probability of not developing breast cancer to age 79 years. Conclusions: These Australian risk statistics are useful for public information and in the clinical setting. Risks given here apply to women with average breast cancer risk from other risk factors.

Quantification of free mycophenolic acid by high-performance liquid chromatography-atmospheric pressure chemical ionisation tandem mass spectrometry

To facilitate the investigation of free mycophenolic acid concentrations we developed a high-performance liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry method using indomethacin as an internal standard. Free drug was isolated from plasma samples (500 mul) using ultrafiltration, The analytes were extracted from the ultrafiltrate (200 mul) using C-18 solid-phase extraction. Detection was by selected reactant monitoring of mycophenolic acid (m/z 318.9-->190.9) and the internal standard (m/z 356.0-->297.1) with an atmospheric pressure chemical ionisation interface. The total chromatographic analysis time was 12 min. The method was found to be linear over the range investigated, 2.5-200 mug/l (r>0.990, n=6). The relative recovery of the method for the control samples studied (7.5, 40.0 and 150 mug/l) ranged from 95 to 104%. The imprecision of the method, expressed in terms of intra- and inter-day coefficients of variation, was