The coincidences of time travel

In this paper I consider two objections raised by Nick Smith (1997) to an argument against the probability of time travel given by Paul Horwich (1995, 1987). Horwich argues that time travel leads to inexplicable and improbable coincidences. I argue that one of Smith's objections fails, but that another is correct. I also consider an instructive way to defend Horwich's argument against the second of Smith's objections, but show that it too fails. I conclude that unless there is something faulty in the conception of explanation implicit in Horwich's argument, time travel presents us with nothing that is inexplicable.

Measuring the decoherence rate in a semiconductor charge qubit

We describe a method by which the decoherence time of a solid-state qubit may be measured. The qubit is coded in the orbital degree of freedom of a single electron bound to a pair of donor impurities in a semiconductor host. The qubit is manipulated by adiabatically varying an external electric field. We show that by measuring the total probability of a successful qubit rotation as a function of the control field parameters, the decoherence rate may be determined. We estimate various system parameters, including the decoherence rates due to electromagnetic fluctuations and acoustic phonons. We find that, for reasonable physical parameters, the experiment is possible with existing technology. In particular, the use of adiabatic control fields implies that the experiment can be performed with control electronics with a time resolution of tens of nanoseconds.

Modelling the Distribution of Ischaemic Stroke-Specific Survival Time Using an EM-based Mixture Approach with Random Effects Adjustment

A two-component survival mixture model is proposed to analyse a set of ischaemic stroke-specific mortality data. The survival experience of stroke patients after index stroke may be described by a subpopulation of patients in the acute condition and another subpopulation of patients in the chronic phase. To adjust for the inherent correlation of observations due to random hospital effects, a mixture model of two survival functions with random effects is formulated. Assuming a Weibull hazard in both components, an EM algorithm is developed for the estimation of fixed effect parameters and variance components. A simulation study is conducted to assess the performance of the two-component survival mixture model estimators. Simulation results confirm the applicability of the proposed model in a small sample setting. Copyright (C) 2004 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

Comparing predictions of extinction risk using models and subjective judgement

Models of population dynamics are commonly used to predict risks in ecology, particularly risks of population decline. There is often considerable uncertainty associated with these predictions. However, alternatives to predictions based on population models have not been assessed. We used simulation models of hypothetical species to generate the kinds of data that might typically be available to ecologists and then invited other researchers to predict risks of population declines using these data. The accuracy of the predictions was assessed by comparison with the forecasts of the original model. The researchers used either population models or subjective judgement to make their predictions. Predictions made using models were only slightly more accurate than subjective judgements of risk. However, predictions using models tended to be unbiased, while subjective judgements were biased towards over-estimation. Psychology literature suggests that the bias of subjective judgements is likely to vary somewhat unpredictably among people, depending on their stake in the outcome. This will make subjective predictions more uncertain and less transparent than those based on models. (C) 2004 Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved.

Bayesian analysis of the error correction model

This paper presents a method for estimating the posterior probability density of the cointegrating rank of a multivariate error correction model. A second contribution is the careful elicitation of the prior for the cointegrating vectors derived from a prior on the cointegrating space. This prior obtains naturally from treating the cointegrating space as the parameter of interest in inference and overcomes problems previously encountered in Bayesian cointegration analysis. Using this new prior and Laplace approximation, an estimator for the posterior probability of the rank is given. The approach performs well compared with information criteria in Monte Carlo experiments. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Utilizing encoding in scalable linear optics quantum computing

We present a scheme which offers a significant reduction in the resources required to implement linear optics quantum computing. The scheme is a variation of the proposal of Knill, Laflamme and Milburn, and makes use of an incremental approach to the error encoding to boost probability of success.

Male-by-female interactions influence fertilization success and mediate the benefits of polyandry in the sea urchin Heliocidaris erythrogramma

Numerous studies have reported that females benefit from mating with multiple males (polyandry) by minimizing the probability of fertilization by genetically incompatible sperm. Few, however, have directly attributed variation in female reproductive success to the fertilizing capacity of sperm. In this study we report on two experiments that investigated the benefits of polyandry and the interacting effects of males and females at fertilization in the free-spawning Australian sea urchin Heliocidaris erythrogramma. In the first experiment we used a paired (split clutch) experimental design and compared fertilization rates within female egg clutches under polyandry (eggs exposed to the sperm from two males simultaneously) and monandry (eggs from the same female exposed to sperm from each of the same two males separately). Our analysis revealed a significant fertilization benefit of polyandry and strong interacting effects of males and females at fertilization. Further analysis of these data strongly suggested that the higher rates of fertilization in the polyandry treatment were due to an overrepresentation of fertilizations due to the most compatible male. To further explore the interacting effects of males and females at fertilization we performed a second factorial experiment in which four mates were crossed with two females (in all eight combinations). In addition to confirming that fertilization success is influenced by male X female interactions, this latter experiment revealed that both sexes contributed significant variance to the observed patterns of fertilization. Taken together, these findings highlight the importance of male X female interactions at fertilization and suggest that polyandry will enable females to reduce the cost of fertilization by incompatible gametes.

Binary games with many players

We examine a problem with n players each facing the same binary choice. One choice is superior to the other. The simple assumption of competition - that an individual's payoff falls with a rise in the number of players making the same choice, guarantees the existence of a unique symmetric equilibrium (involving mixed strategies). As n increases, there are two opposing effects. First, events in the middle of the distribution - where a player finds itself having made the same choice as many others - become more likely, but the payoffs in these events fall. In opposition, events in the tails of the distribution - where a player finds itself having made the same choice as few others - become less likely, but the payoffs in these events remain high. We provide a sufficient condition (strong competition) under which an increase in the number of players leads to a reduction in the equilibrium probability that the superior choice is made.

Distribution of an asymmetrical copepod, Hatschekia plectropomi, on the gills of Plectropomus leopardus

Hatschekia plectropomi, an ectoparasitic copepod found on the gills, infected Plectropomus leopardus from Heron Island Reef with 100% prevalence (n = 32) and a mean +/- S.E. infection intensity of 131.9 +/- 22.1. The distribution of 4222 adult female parasites across 32 individual host fish was investigated at several organizational levels ranging from the level of holobranch pairs to that of individual filaments. Parasites demonstrated a site preference for the two central holobranchs (2 and 3). Along the lengths of hemibranchs, filaments near the dorsal and ventral ends and those in the proximity of the bend region were rarely occupied. The probability of coming into contact with a suitable attachment site and the ability to withstand ventilation forces at that site were proposed as the major factors affecting distribution. Two H. plectropomi morphotypes were identified based on the direction of body curvature. Regardless of morphotype, 99.9% of individuals were attached such that the convex side of the body was oriented towards the oncoming ventilating water currents. Further, 93.3% of individuals attached to the posterior faces of filaments, leading to a predictable pattern of attachment for this species. It is suggested that the direction of body curvature develops in response to the direction of the ventilating water currents. (c) 2006 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Molecular orbital calculations of two-electron states for P-donor solid-state spin qubits

We theoretically study the Hilbert space structure of two neighboring P-donor electrons in silicon-based quantum computer architectures. To use electron spins as qubits, a crucial condition is the isolation of the electron spins from their environment, including the electronic orbital degrees of freedom. We provide detailed electronic structure calculations of both the single donor electron wave function and the two-electron pair wave function. We adopted a molecular orbital method for the two-electron problem, forming a basis with the calculated single donor electron orbitals. Our two-electron basis contains many singlet and triplet orbital excited states, in addition to the two simple ground state singlet and triplet orbitals usually used in the Heitler-London approximation to describe the two-electron donor pair wave function. We determined the excitation spectrum of the two-donor system, and study its dependence on strain, lattice position, and interdonor separation. This allows us to determine how isolated the ground state singlet and triplet orbitals are from the rest of the excited state Hilbert space. In addition to calculating the energy spectrum, we are also able to evaluate the exchange coupling between the two donor electrons, and the double occupancy probability that both electrons will reside on the same P donor. These two quantities are very important for logical operations in solid-state quantum computing devices, as a large exchange coupling achieves faster gating times, while the magnitude of the double occupancy probability can affect the error rate.

Use of methotrexate in older patients - A risk-benefit assessment

Methotrexate is eliminated almost entirely by the kidneys. The risk of methotrexate toxicity is therefore increased in patients with poor renal function, most likely as a result of drug accumulation. Declining renal function with age may thus be an important predictor of toxicity to methotrexate. Up to 60% of all patients who receive methotrexate for rheumatoid arthritis (RA) discontinue taking it because of adverse effects, most of which occur during the first year of therapy. Gastrointestinal complications are the most common adverse effects of methotrexate, but hepatotoxicity, haematological toxicity, pulmonary toxicity, lymphoproliferative disorders and exacerbation of rheumatic nodules have all been reported, Decreased renal function as a result of disease and/or aging appears to be an important determinant of hepatic, lymphoproli ferative and haematological toxicity, Concomitant use of low doses of folic acid has been recommended as an approach to limiting toxicity. Interactions between methotrexate and several nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs have been reported, but they may not be clinically significant. However, caution is advised in the use of such combinations in patients with reduced renal function. More serious toxicities (e.g. pancytopenia) may result when other inhibitors of folate utilisation [e.g. cotrimoxazole (trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole)] or inhibitors of renal tubular secretion (e.g. probenecid) are combined with methotrexate. Before starting low dose methotrexate therapy in patients with RA, a full blood count, liver function tests, renal function tests and chest radiography should be performed. Blood counts and liver function tests should be repeated at regular intervals. Therapeutic drug monitoring of methotrexate has also been suggested as a means of limiting toxicity. Patients with RA usually respond very favourably to low dose methotrexate therapy, and the probability of patients continuing their treatment beyond 5 years is greater than for other slow-acting antirheumatic drugs. Thus, given its sustained clinical utility and relatively predictable toxicity profile, low dose methotrexate is a useful addition to the therapy of RA.

2-perfect directed m-cycle systems can be equationally defined for m=3,4, and 5 only

It is shown that quasigroups constructed using the standard construction from 2-perfect directed m-cycle systems are precisely the finite members of a variety if and only if m=3, 4 or 5.

Critical sets in direct products of back circulant Latin squares

To date very Few families of critical sets for latin squares are known. The only previously known method for constructing critical sets involves taking a critical set which is known to satisfy certain strong initial conditions and using a doubling construction. This construction can be applied to the known critical sets in back circulant latin squares of even order. However, the doubling construction cannot be applied to critical sets in back circulant latin squares of odd order. In this paper a family of critical sets is identified for latin squares which are the product of the latin square of order 2 with a back circulant latin square of odd order. The proof that each element of the critical set is an essential part of the reconstruction process relies on the proof of the existence of a large number of latin interchanges.