Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses for burden of disease and risk factor estimates

Epidemiological studies report confidence or uncertainty intervals around their estimates. Estimates of the burden of diseases and risk factors are subject to a broader range of uncertainty because of the combination of multiple data sources and value choices. Sensitivity analysis can be used to examine the effects of social values that have been incorporated into the design of the disability–adjusted life year (DALY). Age weight, where a year of healthy life lived at one age is valued differently from at another age, is the most controversial value built into the DALY. The discount rate, which addresses the difference in value of current versus future health benefits, also has been criticized. The distribution of the global disease burden and rankings of various conditions are largely insensitive to alternate assumptions about the discount rate and age weighting. The major effects of discounting and age weighting are to enhance the importance of neuropsychiatric conditions and sexually transmitted infections. The Global Burden of Disease study also has been criticized for estimating mortality and disease burden for regions using incomplete and uncertain data. Including uncertain results, with uncertainty quantified to the extent possible, is preferable, however, to leaving blank cells in tables intended to provide policy makers with an overall assessment of burden of disease. No estimate is generally interpreted as no problem. Greater investment in getting the descriptive epidemiology of diseases and injuries correct in poor countries will do vastly more to reduce uncertainty in disease burden assessments than a philosophical debate about the appropriateness of social value

Uterine preservation or hysterectomy at sacrospinous colpopexy for uterovaginal prolapse

This study retrospectively compared 34 women who had a sacrospinous hysteropexy and 36 who had a vaginal hysterectomy and sacrospinous fixation for symptomatic uterine prolapse. All women underwent independent review and examination, with a mean follow-up of 36 months in the hysterectomy group and 26 months in the hysteropexy group.  The subjective success rate was 86% in the hysterectomy group and 78% in the hysteropexy group (P = 0.70). The objective success rate was 72% and 74%, respectively (P = 1.00). The patient-determined satisfaction rate was 86% in the hysterectomy group and 85% in the hysteropexy group (P = 1.00). The operating time in the hysterectomy group was 91 minutes, compared to 59 minutes in the hysteropexy group (P

Experimental infections of pigs with Japanese encephalitis virus and closely related Australian flaviviruses

The flavivirus Japanese encephalitis (JE) virus has recently emerged in the Australasian region. To investigate the involvement of infections with related enzootic flaviviruses, namely Murray Valley encephalitis (MVE) virus and Kunjin (KUN) virus, on immunity of pigs to JE virus and to provide a basis for interpretation of serologic data, experimental infections were conducted with combinations of these viruses. Antibody responses to primary and secondary infections were evaluated using panels of monoclonal antibody-based blocking enzyme-link-ed immuno-sorbent assays and microtiter scrum neutralization tests (mSNTs). Identification of the primary infecting virus was possible only using the mSNTs. Following challenge, unequivocal diagnosis was impossible due to variation in immune responses between animals and broadened and/or anamnestic responses. Viremia for JE virus was readily detected in pigs following primary infection, but was not detected following prior exposure to MVE or KUN viruses. Boosted levels of existing cross-neutralizing antibodies to JE virus suggested a role for this response in suppressing JE viremia.

Exploratory spatial data analysis techniques for examining urban crime

Regional planners, policy makers and policing agencies all recognize the importance of better understanding the dynamics of crime. Theoretical and application-oriented approaches which provide insights into why and where crimes take place are much sought after. Geographic information systems and spatial analysis techniques, in particular, are proving to be essential or studying criminal activity. However, the capabilities of these quantitative methods continue to evolve. This paper explores the use of geographic information systems and spatial analysis approaches for examining crime occurrence in Brisbane, Australia. The analysis highlights novel capabilities for the analysis of crime in urban regions.

A purple acid phosphatase from sweet potato contains an antiferromagnetically coupled binuclear Fe-Mn center

A purple acid phosphatase from sweet potato is the first reported example of a protein containing an enzymatically active binuclear Fe-Mn center. Multifield saturation magnetization data over a temperature range of 2 to 200 K indicates that this center is strongly antiferromagnetically coupled. Metal ion analysis shows an excess of iron over manganese. Low temperature EPR spectra reveal only resonances characteristic of high spin Fe(III) centers (Fe(III)-apo and Fe(III)-Zn(II)) and adventitious Cu(II) centers. There were no resonances from either Mn(II) or binuclear Fe-Mn centers. Together with a comparison of spectral properties and sequence homologies between known purple acid phosphatases, the enzymatic and spectroscopic data strongly indicate the presence of catalytic Fe(III)-Mn(II) centers in the active site of the sweet potato enzyme. Because of the strong antiferromagnetism it is likely that the metal ions in the sweet potato enzyme are linked via a mu -oxo bridge, in contrast to other known purple acid phosphatases in which a mu -hydroxo bridge is present. Differences in metal ion composition and bridging may affect substrate specificities leading to the biological function of different purple acid phosphatases.

Intellectual origins of welfare dependency

'Welfare dependency' has become a key term in policy debate in the United States and, more recently, Australia. In this article I explore the intellectual origins of the term, looking specifically at the writings of George Gilder and Charles Murray, two commentators whose (often polemically presented) ideas were influential within the Reagan Administration and have been at the forefront of a conservative renewal in welfare debate generally. Although others have subsequently refined some of their arguments and proposals, the authors' central claim that welfare causes dependency and thus unemployment and poverty - and that welfare reform therefore needs to focus on changing the behaviour of welfare recipients rather than providing employment opportunities - has had a lasting political impact, in Australia as much as in the US.