Diagnostic goal driven modelling and simulation of multiscale process systems

A systematic goal-driven top-down modelling methodology is proposed that is capable of developing a multiscale model of a process system for given diagnostic purposes. The diagnostic goal-set and the symptoms are extracted from HAZOP analysis results, where the possible actions to be performed in a fault situation are also described. The multiscale dynamic model is realized in the form of a hierarchical coloured Petri net by using a novel substitution place-transition pair. Multiscale simulation that focuses automatically on the fault areas is used to predict the effect of the proposed preventive actions. The notions and procedures are illustrated on some simple case studies including a heat exchanger network and a more complex wet granulation process.

The effect of life expectancy on fertility, saving, schooling and economic growth: theory and evidence

We construct a simple growth model where agents with uncertain survival choose schooling time, life-cycle consumption and the number of children. We show that rising longevity reduces fertility but raises saving, schooling time and the growth rate at a diminishing rate. Cross-section analyses using data from 76 countries support these propositions: life expectancy has a significant positive effect on the saving rate, secondary school enrollment and growth but a significant negative effect on fertility. Through sensitivity analyses, the effect on the saving rate is inconclusive, while the effects on the other variables are robust and consistent. These estimated effects are decreasing in life expectancy. Copyright The editors of the Scandinavian Journal of Economics 2005.

Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) Applied to the Design of an Innovative Drying Process for Sewage Sludge

Most adverse environmental impacts result from design decisions made long before manufacturing or usage. In order to prevent this situation, several authors have proposed the application of life cycle assessment (LCA) at the very first phases of the design of a process, a product or a service. The study in this paper presents an innovative thermal drying process for sewage sludge called fry-drying, in which dewatered sludge is directly contacted in the dryer with hot recycled cooking oils (RCO) as the heat medium. Considering the practical difficulties for the disposal of these two wastes, fry-drying presents a potentially convenient method for their combined elimination by incineration of the final fry-dried sludge. An analytical comparison between a conventional drying process and the new proposed fry-drying process is reported, with reference to some environmental impact categories. The results of this study, applied at the earliest stages of the design of the process, assist evaluation of the feasibility of such system compared to a current disposal process for the drying and incineration of sewage sludge.

Development of a dosage strategy in patients receiving enoxaparin by continuous intravenous infusion using modelling and simulation

Aim To develop an appropriate dosing strategy for continuous intravenous infusions (CII) of enoxaparin by minimizing the percentage of steady-state anti-Xa concentration (C-ss) outside the therapeutic range of 0.5-1.2 IU ml(-1). Methods A nonlinear mixed effects model was developed with NONMEM (R) for 48 adult patients who received CII of enoxaparin with infusion durations that ranged from 8 to 894 h at rates between 100 and 1600 IU h(-1). Three hundred and sixty-three anti-Xa concentration measurements were available from patients who received CII. These were combined with 309 anti-Xa concentrations from 35 patients who received subcutaneous enoxaparin. The effects of age, body size, height, sex, creatinine clearance (CrCL) and patient location [intensive care unit (ICU) or general medical unit] on pharmacokinetic (PK) parameters were evaluated. Monte Carlo simulations were used to (i) evaluate covariate effects on C-ss and (ii) compare the impact of different infusion rates on predicted C-ss. The best dose was selected based on the highest probability that the C-ss achieved would lie within the therapeutic range. Results A two-compartment linear model with additive and proportional residual error for general medical unit patients and only a proportional error for patients in ICU provided the best description of the data. Both CrCL and weight were found to affect significantly clearance and volume of distribution of the central compartment, respectively. Simulations suggested that the best doses for patients in the ICU setting were 50 IU kg(-1) per 12 h (4.2 IU kg(-1) h(-1)) if CrCL < 30 ml min(-1); 60 IU kg(-1) per 12 h (5.0 IU kg(-1) h(-1)) if CrCL was 30-50 ml min(-1); and 70 IU kg(-1) per 12 h (5.8 IU kg(-1) h(-1)) if CrCL > 50 ml min(-1). The best doses for patients in the general medical unit were 60 IU kg(-1) per 12 h (5.0 IU kg(-1) h(-1)) if CrCL < 30 ml min(-1); 70 IU kg(-1) per 12 h (5.8 IU kg(-1) h(-1)) if CrCL was 30-50 ml min(-1); and 100 IU kg(-1) per 12 h (8.3 IU kg(-1) h(-1)) if CrCL > 50 ml min(-1). These best doses were selected based on providing the lowest equal probability of either being above or below the therapeutic range and the highest probability that the C-ss achieved would lie within the therapeutic range. Conclusion The dose of enoxaparin should be individualized to the patients' renal function and weight. There is some evidence to support slightly lower doses of CII enoxaparin in patients in the ICU setting.

B-type natriuretic peptide concentrations and myocardial dysfunction in critical illness

B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) is the first biomarker of proven value in screening for left ventricular dysfunction. The availability of point-of-care testing has escalated clinical interest and the resultant research is defining a role for BNP in the investigation and treatment of critically ill patients. This review was undertaken with the aim of collecting and assimilating current evidence regarding the use of BNP assay in the evaluation of myocardial dysfunction in critically ill humans. The information is presented in a format based upon organ system and disease category. BNP assay has been studied in a spectrum of clinical conditions ranging from acute dyspnoea to subarachnoid haemorrhage. Its role in diagnosis, assessment of disease severity, risk stratification and prognostic evaluation of cardiac dysfunction appears promising, but requires further elaboration. The heterogeneity of the critically ill population appears to warrant a range of cut-off values. Research addressing progressive changes in BNP concentration is hindered by infrequent assay and appears unlikely to reflect the critically ill patient's rapidly changing haemodynamics. Multi-marker strategies may prove valuable in prognostication and evaluation of therapy in a greater variety of illnesses. Scant data exist regarding the use of BNP assay to alter therapy or outcome. It appears that BNP assay offers complementary information to conventional approaches for the evaluation of cardiac dysfunction. Continued research should augment the validity of BNP assay in the evaluation of myocardial function in patients with life-threatening illness.

Enhancing Life in the Hyper-surveillance Mini-world of a Space Station: The Role of Situation Awareness, Communication, and Reality TV in the Life of Astronauts

This is the third article of a series entitled Astronauts as Audiences. In this article, we investigate the roles that situation awareness (SA), communications, and reality TV (including media communications) might have on the lives of astronauts in remote space communities. We examined primary data about astronauts’ living and working environments, applicable theories of SA, communications, and reality TV (including media communications). We then surmised that the collective application of these roles might be a means of enhancing the lives of astronauts in remote space communities.