Advances in application of climate prediction in agriculture

Agricultural ecosystems and their associated business and government systems are diverse and varied. They range from farms, to input supply businesses, to marketing and government policy systems, among others. These systems are dynamic and responsive to fluctuations in climate. Skill in climate prediction offers considerable opportunities to managers via its potential to realise system improvements (i.e. increased food production and profit and/or reduced risks). Realising these opportunities, however, is not straightforward as the forecasting skill is imperfect and approaches to applying the existing skill to management issues have not been developed and tested extensively. While there has been much written about impacts of climate variability, there has been relatively little done in relation to applying knowledge of climate predictions to modify actions ahead of likely impacts. However, a considerable body of effort in various parts of the world is now being focused on this issue of applying climate predictions to improve agricultural systems. In this paper, we outline the basis for climate prediction, with emphasis on the El Nino-Southern Oscillation phenomenon, and catalogue experiences at field, national and global scales in applying climate predictions to agriculture. These diverse experiences are synthesised to derive general lessons about approaches to applying climate prediction in agriculture. The case studies have been selected to represent a diversity of agricultural systems and scales of operation. They also represent the on-going activities of some of the key research and development groups in this field around the world. The case studies include applications at field/farm scale to dryland cropping systems in Australia, Zimbabwe, and Argentina. This spectrum covers resource-rich and resource-poor farming with motivations ranging from profit to food security. At national and global scale we consider possible applications of climate prediction in commodity forecasting (wheat in Australia) and examine implications on global wheat trade and price associated with global consequences of climate prediction. In cataloguing these experiences we note some general lessons. Foremost is the value of an interdisciplinary systems approach in connecting disciplinary Knowledge in a manner most suited to decision-makers. This approach often includes scenario analysis based oil simulation with credible models as a key aspect of the learning process. Interaction among researchers, analysts and decision-makers is vital in the development of effective applications all of the players learn. Issues associated with balance between information demand and supply as well as appreciation of awareness limitations of decision-makers, analysts, and scientists are highlighted. It is argued that understanding and communicating decision risks is one of the keys to successful applications of climate prediction. We consider that advances of the future will be made by better connecting agricultural scientists and practitioners with the science of climate prediction. Professions involved in decision making must take a proactive role in the development of climate forecasts if the design and use of climate predictions are to reach their full potential. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Can medical education be fun as well as educational?

Today's challenge to medical educators is to provide continuing education that supports excellence in clinical practice while finding new approaches to make learning more stimulating, motivating, and entertaining. At our hospital we are experimenting with innovative teaching techniques, incorporating games and debate, which encapsulate core concepts of the theory of adult learning: active participation by learners, application of knowledge, informal presentation, and feedback(1).

Inhibition of adventitious rooting in Backhousia citriodora F. Muell cuttings correlate with the concentration of essential oil

Backhousia citriodora is typical of the many commercially valuable woody Australian Myrtaceae species that are recalcitrant in forming adventitious roots from cuttings after maturation. A series of experiments were conducted to identify an endogenous rooting inhibitor in line with established criteria. Endogenous levels of citral were correlated with the rooting capacities of juvenile versus mature, and easy- versus difficult-to-root genotypes of B. citriodora, in both winter and summer. The biological activity of citral was confirmed in bioassays on mung beans and easy-to-root B. citriodora seedlings. Evidence of a common mechanism of root inhibition with other species in the Myrtaceae and the role of action of citral are discussed.

Relationships between nutrition screening checklists and the health and well-being of older Australian women

Objectives: To examine associations between nutrition screening checklists and the health of older women. Design: Cross-sectional postal survey including measures of health and health service utilisation, as well as the Australian Nutrition Screening Initiative (ANSI), adapted from the Nutrition Screening Initiative (NSI). Setting: Australia, 1996. Subjects: In total, 12 939 women aged 70-75 years randomly selected as part of the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health. Results: Responses to individual items in the ANSI checklist, and ANSI and NSI scores, were associated with measures of health and health service utilisation. Women with high ANSI and NSI scores had poorer physical and mental health, higher health care utilisation and were less likely to be in the acceptable weight range. The performance of an unweighted score (TSI) was also examined and showed similar results. Whereas ANSI classified 30% of the women as 'high-risk', only 13% and 12% were classified as 'high-risk' by the NSI and TSI, respectively. However, for identifying women with body mass index outside the acceptable range, sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive values for all of these checklists were less than 60%. Conclusions: Higher scores on both the ANSI and NSI are associated with poorer health. The simpler unweighted method of scoring the ANSI (TSI) showed better discrimination for the identification of 'at risk' women than the weighted ANSI method. The predictive value of individual items and the checklist scores need to be examined longitudinally.

Well-formedness judgment: A comparison of offline and online performance in Broca's aphasics

0na eg rcarmitimcaal tfieca tcuorem opfr ethhee nospieornat iodneafli cdietf i(nAitiCoDn )o ft hthaet frequently co-occurs with Broca’s aphasia is above-chance performance on well-formedness judgment tasks for many syntactic constructions, but impaired performance where syntactic binding of traces to their antecedents occurs. However, the methodologies used to establish this aspect of the performance profile of the ACD have been predominantly offline. Offline well-formedness tasks entail extralinguistic processing (e.g. perception, attention, short-term memory, conscious reflection) in varying amounts and the influence of such processes on parsing mechanisms is yet to be fully established. In order to (a) further understand the role of extra-linguistic processing on parsing, and (b) gain a more direct insight into the online nature of parsing in Broca’s aphasia, 8 subjects underwent a series of wellformedness judgment investigations using both offline and online test batteries. The sentence types and error types used were motivated by three current theories about the nature of the ACD, namely, the Trace-Based Account (Grodzinsky, 2000), the Mapping Hypothesis (Linebarger et al., 1983) and Capacity proposals (e.g. Frazier & Friederici, 1991). The results from the present investigation speak directly to the three aforementioned theories and also demonstrate the important role that extralinguistic processing plays during offline assessment. The clinical implications of the different outcomes from the offline vs. online tasks are also discussed.

ANZUS - Alive and well after fifty years

Marking its fiftieth anniversary in late 2001, the ANZUS alliance remains Australia's primary security relationship and one of the United States' most important defence arrangements in the Asia-Pacific region. It is argued here that ANZUS has defied many common suppositions advanced by international relations theorists on how alliances work. It thus represents an important refutation of arguments that they are short-term instruments of mere policy expediency and are largely interest-dependent. Cultural and normative factors are powerful, if often underrated, determinants for ANZUS's perpetuation. ANZUS may thus constitute an important test case for expanding our understanding of alliance politics beyond the usual preconditions and prerogatives normally associated with such a relationship.

The impact of participation in activities while on vacation on senior's psychological well-being: A path model application

This article extends earlier research regarding the relationships between senior travelers’ participation in activities while on vacation, their overall satisfaction with their travel experiences, and their psychological well-being. A path model was developed to depict the direct and indirect relationships between these variables by using a sample of senior tourists traveling on North American escorted tour itineraries. Whereas the direct effect accounted for 98% of the relationships between the senior tourists’ levels of participation in activities and their psychological well-being, the indirect effect was negligible. The study concluded that senior tourists’activity levels were significantly related to their psychological well-being, but their satisfaction with the tours was not.

Mental health: How well are occupational therapists equipped for a changed practice environment?

No Abstract

How well do general practitioners deliver palliative care? A systematic review

General practitioners (GPs) deliver the majority of palliative care to patients in the last year of life. This article seeks to examine the nature of GP care, perceptions of the GPs themselves and others of that care, the adequacy of palliative care training, issues relating to accessibility of GPs to palliative care patients, and strategies that may be of use in encouraging more effective delivery of palliative care by GPs. Medline and PubMed databases from 1966 to 2000 were searched, and 135 references identified. Sixty-six of these described studies relevant to GP palliative care. GPs value this part of their work. Most of the time, patients appreciate the contribution the GP makes to palliative care particularly if the GP is accessible, takes time to listen, allows patient and carer to ventilate their feelings, and is seen to be making efforts made regarding symptom relief. However, reports from bereaved relatives suggest that palliative care is performed less well in the community than in other settings. GPs express discomfort about their competence to perform palliative care adequately. They tend to miss symptoms which are not treatable by them, or which are less common. However, with appropriate specialist support and facilities, GPs have been shown to deliver sound and effective care. GP comfort working with specialist teams increases with exposure to this form of patient management, as does the understanding of the potential other team members have in contributing to the care of the patient. Formal arrangements engaging GPs to work with specialist teams have been shown to improve functional outcomes, patient satisfaction, improve effective use of resources and improve effective physician behaviour in other areas of medicine. Efforts by specialist services to develop formal involvement of GPs in the care of individual patients, may be an effective method of improving GP palliative care skills and appreciation of the roles specialist services can play.

Immune correlate study on human Schistosoma japonicum in a well-defined population in Leyte, Philippines: I. Assessment of 'resistance' versus 'susceptibility' to S-japonicum infection

This study describes the categorical classification of 155 individuals living in an endemic village in Macanip, Leyte, Philippines as 'resistant' or 'susceptible' to Schistosoma japonicum infection using available exposure, infection and reinfection data collected from a 3-year water contact (WC) study. Epidemiological parameters including age, sex, and infection intensities in relation to observed reinfection patterns are also described. This classification was used in subsequent immunological studies described in two accompanying papers to identify protective immune mechanisms among resistant individuals induced by defined candidate vaccine molecules for S. japonicum. The study suggests that individuals who were most vulnerable to rapid reinfection were children belonging to the 5-14 age group. A drop in incidence at age group 15-19 and decreased intensity of infection starting at this age group and older (15+) suggests development of immunity. Controlling for the effect of the other variables, a multivariate analysis showed significant association for sex, in that females were more likely to be resistant. This implies that other than acquired immunity to infection, some age-dependent host factors may also play an important role in the overall changes of reinfection patterns seen in schistosomiasis japonica in this population. Crown Copyright (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Are wing size, wing shape and asymmetry related to field fitness of Trichogramma egg parasitoids?

The effects of wing shape, wing size, and fluctuating asymmetry in these measures oil the field fitness of T. nr. brassicae and T. pretiosum were investigated. Trichogramma wasps mass-reared on eggs of the factitious host Sitotroga cerealella were released in tomato paddocks and those females ovipositing on Helicoverpo spp. eggs were recaptured. Comparisons of the recaptured group with a sample from the release population were used to assess fitness. Wing data were obtained by positioning landmarks on mounted forewings. Size was then measured as the centroid size computed from landmark distances, while Procrustes analysis followed by principal component analysis was used to assess wing shape. Similar findings were obtained for both Trichogramma species: fitness of wasps was strongly related to wing size and some shape dimensions, but not to the asymmetries of these measures. Wasps which performed well in the field had larger wings and a different wing shape compared to wasps from the mass reared population. Both size and the shape dimensions were linearly associated with fitness although there was also some evidence for non-linear selection on shape. The results suggest that wing shape and wing size are reliable predictors of field fitness for these Trichogramma wasps.

The paradox in ageing well: stories of older women in the Australian women's weeky

This Article does not have an abstract.

Genetic structure of a population of Ganoderma boninense on oil palm

Ganoderma boninense (the causal agent of basal stem rot of oil palm in Papua New Guinea) has a tetrapolar mating system with multiple alleles. Investigations into the population structure of G. boninense, using interfertility between isolates as a marker, revealed that the population on oil palm was comprised predominantly of genetically distinct individuals, although a number of isolates were found to share single mating alleles. No direct hereditary relationship was found between isolates on neighbouring or spatially separated diseased palms, indicating that outcrossing had probably occurred over several generations in the founder population prior to colonization of oil palm. In this study, a total of 81 A and 83 B mating type alleles (factors) were detected with 18 allelic repeats at the A locus and 17 at the B locus. Alleles appeared to be randomly dispersed throughout the population in each study block, although there was a significantly (P