A landscape-scale test of the predictive ability of a spatially explicit model for population viability analysis

1. Although population viability analysis (PVA) is widely employed, forecasts from PVA models are rarely tested. This study in a fragmented forest in southern Australia contrasted field data on patch occupancy and abundance for the arboreal marsupial greater glider Petauroides volans with predictions from a generic spatially explicit PVA model. This work represents one of the first landscape-scale tests of its type. 2. Initially we contrasted field data from a set of eucalypt forest patches totalling 437 ha with a naive null model in which forecasts of patch occupancy were made, assuming no fragmentation effects and based simply on remnant area and measured densities derived from nearby unfragmented forest. The naive null model predicted an average total of approximately 170 greater gliders, considerably greater than the true count (n = 81). 3. Congruence was examined between field data and predictions from PVA under several metapopulation modelling scenarios. The metapopulation models performed better than the naive null model. Logistic regression showed highly significant positive relationships between predicted and actual patch occupancy for the four scenarios (P = 0.001-0.006). When the model-derived probability of patch occupancy was high (0.50-0.75, 0.75-1.00), there was greater congruence between actual patch occupancy and the predicted probability of occupancy. 4. For many patches, probability distribution functions indicated that model predictions for animal abundance in a given patch were not outside those expected by chance. However, for some patches the model either substantially over-predicted or under-predicted actual abundance. Some important processes, such as inter-patch dispersal, that influence the distribution and abundance of the greater glider may not have been adequately modelled. 5. Additional landscape-scale tests of PVA models, on a wider range of species, are required to assess further predictions made using these tools. This will help determine those taxa for which predictions are and are not accurate and give insights for improving models for applied conservation management.

Cervical screening: population-based comparisons between self-reported survey and registry-derived Pap test rates

Objective: To compare self-reported cervical screening rates, as recorded in the 1998 NSW Health Survey, with registry-based cervical screening rates for NSW for the same period; and to examine factors associated with over-estimates of cervical screening rates by self-report. Methods: Self-reported cervical screening data was extracted from the 1998 NSW Health Survey, biennial screening rates estimated and compared with biennial cervical screening rates for 1997-98, as recorded on the NSW Pap Test Register (PTR). Rates and differences were related to socio-demographic characteristics of the 17 Area Health Services of NSW. Results: According to the 1998 NSW Health Survey, 74% of women reported having a Pap test during the previous two years. The equivalent rate recorded on the NSW PTR for 1997-98 was 62% (p

A spectral-based cusum test of evolutionary change

We develop a test of evolutionary change that incorporates a null hypothesis of homogeneity, which encompasses time invariance in the variance and autocovariance structure of residuals from estimated econometric relationships. The test framework is based on examining whether shifts in spectral decomposition between two frames of data are significant. Rejection of the null hypothesis will point not only to weak nonstationarity but to shifts in the structure of the second-order moments of the limiting distribution of the random process. This would indicate that the second-order properties of any underlying attractor set has changed in a statistically significant way, pointing to the presence of evolutionary change. A demonstration of the test's applicability to a real-world macroeconomic problem is accomplished by applying the test to the Australian Building Society Deposits (ABSD) model.

Extrinsic versus intrinsic factors in the decline and extinction of Australian marsupials

Recent attempts to explain the susceptibility of vertebrates to declines worldwide have largely focused on intrinsic factors such as body size, reproductive potential, ecological specialization, geographical range and phylogenetic longevity. Here, we use a database of 145 Australian marsupial species to test the effects of both intrinsic and extrinsic factors in a multivariate comparative approach. We model five intrinsic (body size, habitat specialization, diet, reproductive rate and range size) and four extrinsic (climate and range overlap with introduced foxes, sheep and rabbits) factors. We use quantitative measures of geographical range contraction as indices of decline. We also develop a new modelling approach of phylogenetically independent contrasts combined with imputation of missing values to deal simultaneously with phylogenetic structuring and missing data. One extrinsic variable-geographical range overlap with sheep-was the only consistent predictor of declines. Habitat specialization was independently but less consistently associated with declines. This suggests that extrinsic factors largely determine interspecific variation in extinction risk among Australian marsupials, and that the intrinsic factors that are consistently associated with extinction risk in other vertebrates are less important in this group. We conclude that recent anthropogenic changes have been profound enough to affect species on a continent-wide scale, regardless of their intrinsic biology.

Whispered voice test for screening for hearing impairment in adults and children: systematic review

Objective To determine the accuracy of the whispered voice test in detecting hearing impairment in adults and children. Design Systematic review of studies of test accuracy. Data sources Medline, Embase, Science Citation Index, unpublished theses, manual searching of bibliographies of known primary and review articles, and contact with authors. Study selection Two reviewers independently selected and extracted data on study characteristics, quality, and accuracy of studies. Studies were included if they had cross sectional designs, at least one of the index tests was the whispered voice test, and the reference test (audiometry) was performed on at least 80% of the participants. Data extraction Data were used to form 2x2 contingency tables with hearing impairment by audiometry as the reference standard. Data synthesis The eight studies that were found used six different techniques. The sensitivity in the four adult studies was 90% or 100% and the specificity was 70% to 87%. The sensitivity in the four childhood studies ranged from 80% to 96% and specificity ranged from 90% to 98%. Conclusion The whispered voice test is a simple and accurate test for detecting hearing impairment. There is some concern regarding the lower sensitivity in children and the overall reproducibility of the test, particularly in primary care settings. Further studies should be conducted in primary care settings to explore the influence of components of the testing procedure to optimise test sensitivity and to promote standardisation of the testing procedure.

Combined in-fermenter extraction and cross-flow microfiltration for improved inclusion body processing

In this study we demonstrate a new in-fermenter chemical extraction procedure that degrades the cell wall of Escherichia coli and releases inclusion bodies (IBs) into the fermentation medium. We then prove that cross-flow microfiltration can be used to remove 91% of soluble contaminants from the released IBs. The extraction protocol, based on a combination of Triton X-100, EDTA, and intracellular T7 lysozyme, effectively released most of the intracellular soluble content without solubilising the IBs. Cross-flow microfiltration using a 0.2 mum ceramic membrane successfully recovered the granulocyte macrophagecolony stimulating factor (GM-CSF) IBs with removal of 91% of the soluble contaminants and virtually no loss of IBs to the permeate. The filtration efficiency, in terms of both flux and transmission, was significantly enhanced by infermenter Benzonase(R) digestion of nucleic acids following chemical extraction. Both the extraction and filtration methods exerted their efficacy directly on a crude fermentation broth, eliminating the need for cell recovery and re-suspension in buffer. The processes demonstrated here can all be performed using just a fermenter and a single cross-flow filtration unit, demonstrating a high level of process intensification. Furthermore, there is considerable scope to also use the microfiltration system to subsequently solubilise the IBs, to separate the denatured protein from cell debris, and to refold the protein using diafiltration. In this way refolded protein can potentially be obtained, in a relatively pure state, using only two unit operations. (C) 2004 Wiley Periodicals Inc.

Falls prevention in rural general practice: what stands the test of time and where to from here?

Objective: General practitioner recall of the 1992-96 'Stay on Your Feet'(SOYF) program and its influence on practice were surveyed five years post-intervention to gauge sustainability of the SOYF General Practice (GP) component. Methods: A survey assessed which SOYF components were still in existence, current practice related to falls prevention, and interest in professional development. All general practitioners (GPs) situated within the boundaries of a rural Area Health Service were mailed a survey in late 2001. Results: Response rate was 66.5% (139/ 209). Of 117 GPs in practice at the time of SOYF, 80.2% reported having heard of SOYF and 74.4% of those felt it had influenced practice. Half (50.9%) still had a copy of the SOYF GP resource and of those, 58.6% used it at least 'occasionally'. Three-quarters of GPs surveyed (75.2%) checked medications 'most/almost all' of the time with patients over 60 years; 46.7% assessed falls risk factors; 41.3% gave advice; and 22.6% referred to allied health practitioners. GPs indicated a strong interest in falls prevention- related professional development. There was no significant association between use of the SOYF resource package and any of the current falls prevention practices (all chi(2)>0.05). Conclusions and implications: There was high recall of SOYF and a general belief that it influenced practice. There was little indication that use of the resource had any lasting influence on GPs' practices. In future, careful thought needs to go into designing a program that has potential to affect long-term change in GPs' falls prevention practice.

Molecular phylogenetics of Chaetodon and the Chaetodontidae (Teleostei : Perciformes) with reference to morphology

Butterflyfish are colourful, pan-tropical coastal fish that are important and distinctive members of coral reef communities. A successful systematic scheme and a robust phylogeny is considered essential in understanding further their biogeography and ecology, although recent cladistic treatments of butterflyfish phylogeny, based on soft tissue and bone morphology and coded at the generic and subgeneric levels, differ in character coding and subsequently tree topology. This study provides an independent test of the morphologically based hypotheses, using molecular systematic data from two partial mitochondrial gene fragments, cytochrome b (cytb) and small subunit rRNA (rrnS), for 52 ingroup chaetodontids and seven pomacanthids used to root the molecular trees. Individual gene trees were largely compatible and a combined molecular phylogeny, inferred from Bayesian analysis, was used to test alternative hypotheses suggested by morphological analyses. The tree was also used to map the latest morphological matrix in order to evaluate potential synapomorphies for various nodes defining butterflyfish interrelationships. A clade comprised of Chelmon and Coradion was sister group to other chaetodontids. Heniochus and Hemitaurichthys were each resolved as monophyletic groups, and as sister taxa Of the taxa sampled, Prognothodes was resolved as the sister genus to Chaeotodon. Of the ten Chaetodon subgenera sampled, all were monophyletic but their interrelationships differed significantly from that inferred from morphological characters. Lepidochaetodon was the most basal subgenus followed by Exornator and the remaining subgenera. Molecular data support the sister group relationship between Corallochaetodon and Citharoedus suggested by morphology, but major differences occur among the remaining more derived taxa. Chaetodon trifascialis and C. oligacanthus were resolved as sister taxa adding weight to the inclusion of the latter in C. Megaprotodon. Of those pairs of taxa known to hybridize and sampled with molecular data, all were closely related phylogenetically, except those hybrids known to occur in the Rabdophorus subgenus. Two base changes separated C. pelewensis from C. paucifasciatus which have been regarded previously as a single species. Cytb provided greater resolution than rrnS and will likely provide additional resolution with greater taxon sampling.

Offspring size effects in the marine environment: A field test for a colonial invertebrate

A central tenet of life-history theory is the presence of a trade-off between the size and number of offspring that a female can produce for a given clutch. A crucial assumption of this trade-off is that larger offspring perform better than smaller offspring. Despite the importance of this assumption empirical, field-based tests are rare, especially for marine organisms. We tested this assumption for the marine invertebrate, Diplosoma listerianum, a colonial ascidian that commonly occurs in temperate marine communities. Colonies that came from larger larvae had larger feeding structures than colonies that came from smaller larvae. Colonies that came from larger larvae also had higher survival and growth after 2 weeks in the field than colonies that came from smaller larvae. However, after 3 weeks in the field the colonies began to fragment and we could not detect an effect of larval size. We suggest that offspring size can have strong effects on the initial recruitment of D. listerianum but because of the tendency of this species to fragment, offspring size effects are less persistent in this species than in others.

Mechanical loading modulates glutamate receptor subunit expression in bone

The cellular mechanisms coupling mechanical loading with bone remodeling remain unclear. In the CNS, the excitatory amino acid glutamate (Glu) serves as a potent neurotransmitter exerting its effects via various membrane Glu receptors (GluR). Nerves containing Glu exist close to bone cells expressing functional GluRs. Demonstration of a mechanically sensitive glutamate/aspartate transporter protein and the ability of glutamate to stimulate bone resorption in vitro suggest a role for glutamate linking mechanical load and bone remodeling. We used immunohistochemical techniques to identify the expression of N-methyl-D-aspartate acid (NMDA) and non-NMDA (AMPA or kainate) ionotropic GluR subunits on bone cells in vivo. In bone sections from young adult rats, osteoclasts expressed numerous GluR subunits including AMPA (GluR2/3 and GluR4), kainic acid (GluR567) and NMDA (NMDAR2A, NMDAR2B and NMDAR2C) receptor subtypes. Bone lining cells demonstrated immunoexpression for NMDAR2A, NMDAR2B, NMDAR2C, GluR567, GluR23, GuR2 and GluR4 subunits. Immunoexpression was not evident on osteocytes, chondrocytes or vascular channels. To investigate the effects of mechanical loading on GluR expression, we used a Materials Testing System (MTS) to apply 10 N sinusoidal axial compressive loads percutaneously to the right limbs (radius/ulna, tibia/fibula) of rats. Each limb underwent 300-load cycles/day (cycle rate, 1 Hz) for 4 consecutive days. Contralateral, non-loaded limbs served as controls. Mechanically loaded limbs revealed a load-induced loss of immunoexpression for GluR2/3, GluR4, GluR567 and NMDAR2A on osteoclasts and NMDAR2A, NMDAR2B, GluR2/3 and GluR4 on bone lining cells. Both neonatal rabbit and rat osteoclasts were cultured on bone slices to investigate the effect of the NMDA receptor antagonist, MK801, and the AMPA/kainic acid receptor antagonist, NBQX, on osteoclast resorptive activity in vitro. The inhibition of resorptive function seen suggested that both NMDAR and kainic acid receptor function are required for normal osteoclast function. While the exact role of ionotropic GluRs in skeletal tissue remains unclear, the modulation of GluR subunit expression by mechanical loading lends further support for participation of Glu as a mechanical loading effector. These ionotropic receptors appear to be functionally relevant to normal osteoclast resorptive activity. (C) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Fronto-parietal activation in attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder, combined type: functional magnetic resonance imaging study

A functional magnetic resonance imaging mental rotation paradigm was used to investigate the patterns of activation of fronto-parietal brain areas in male adolescents with attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder, combined type (ADHD-CT) compared with age-, gender-, handedness- and performance IQ-matched healthy controls. The ADHD-CT group had (a) decreased activation of the 'action-attentional' system (including Brodmann's areas (BA) 46, 39,40) and the superior parietal (BA7) and middle frontal (BA10) areas and (b) increased activation of the posterior midline attentional system. These different neuroactivation patterns indicate widespread frontal, striatal and parietal dysfunction in adolescents with ADHD-CT. Declaration of interest None.

Macroscopic test of quantum mechanics versus stochastic electrodynamics

We identify a test of quantum mechanics versus macroscopic local realism in the form of stochastic electrodynamics. The test uses the steady-state triple quadrature correlations of a parametric oscillator below threshold.