An adaptive neural-wavelet model for short term load forecasting

This paper proposed a novel model for short term load forecast in the competitive electricity market. The prior electricity demand data are treated as time series. The forecast model is based on wavelet multi-resolution decomposition by autocorrelation shell representation and neural networks (multilayer perceptrons, or MLPs) modeling of wavelet coefficients. To minimize the influence of noisy low level coefficients, we applied the practical Bayesian method Automatic Relevance Determination (ARD) model to choose the size of MLPs, which are then trained to provide forecasts. The individual wavelet domain forecasts are recombined to form the accurate overall forecast. The proposed method is tested using Queensland electricity demand data from the Australian National Electricity Market. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Empirical evidence for ultrametric structure in multi-layer perceptron error surfaces

Combinatorial optimization problems share an interesting property with spin glass systems in that their state spaces can exhibit ultrametric structure. We use sampling methods to analyse the error surfaces of feedforward multi-layer perceptron neural networks learning encoder problems. The third order statistics of these points of attraction are examined and found to be arranged in a highly ultrametric way. This is a unique result for a finite, continuous parameter space. The implications of this result are discussed.