Genetic and environmental risk factors and their interactions for Parkinson's disease in a Chinese population

The interaction between genetic and environmental factors for PD was examined in a Chinese population. It was found that although the intron 2 MAOB (GT)(n) repeat polymorphism was not associated with PID in the population, a relationship might have been masked by the protective effect of tea drinking. In individuals who did not drink tea (<1 cup/day), the possession of short length less than or equal to 178 bp (GT), alleles conferred a borderline significant increased risk for PD (adjusted OR = 1.47; C.l. = 1.03-2. 1). As the extent of tea consumption increased, the association between the less than or equal to178 bp allele and PD disappeared. This result suggests that the MAOB gene may be associated with PD in Chinese if the putative protective effect of tea drinking is taken into account. The significance of this finding is unclear as the study may be limited because of its marginal significance and limited numbers. However, it does demonstrate the importance of considering putative positive and negative environmental risk factors in any examination of genetic risk factors for PD. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Treatment of maternal syphilis in rural South Africa: effect of multiple doses of benzathine penicillin on pregnancy loss

OBJECTIVES Despite few data, the treatment of syphilis in pregnant women using a single dose of benzathine penicillin is the standard of care in many resource-poor settings. We examined the effect of various doses of benzathine penicillin on pregnancy loss among women with a positive Rapid Plasma Reagin (RPR) test result in a rural South African district. METHODS All pregnant women making their first antenatal care visit during pregnancy were screened for syphilis using the RPR test. Those testing positive were counselled to receive three weekly doses of benzathine penicillin, and received a partner notification card. Pregnancy outcomes were determined from facility records or home visits where necessary. RESULTS Of 8917 women screened, 1043 (12%) had reactive syphilis serology; of those with titre data available, 30% had titres of 1:8 or greater. While 41% (n = 430) of women received all three doses as counselled, 30% (n = 312) received only one dose, and 20% (n = 207) did not return to the clinic to receive treatment. Among the 947 women with pregnancy outcome data available, there were 17 miscarriages and 48 perinatal deaths observed. There was a strong trend towards reduced risk of pregnancy loss among women receiving multiple doses of penicillin (adjusted OR for perinatal mortality for each additional dose received, 0.63; 95% CI, 0.48-0.84). CONCLUSIONS While this association requires further investigation, these results suggest that there may be substantial benefit to providing multiple doses of benzathine penicillin to treat maternal syphilis in this setting.

Host-dependent Anopheles flavirostris larval distribution reinforces the risk of malaria near water

Malaria control strategies are more likely to be successful if groups at high risk can be accurately predicted. Given that mosquitoes have an obligate aquatic phase we were interested in determining how vector larval abundance relates to the spatial distribution of human malaria infection. We examined the relationship between malaria parasite prevalence and distance from vector larval habitat, and vector larval abundance and distance from human habitation, in separate studies in rural, low-endemic areas of the Philippines. Parasite prevalence among symptomatic patients was significantly higher among those living in proximity ( less than or equal to 50 m) to potential larval habitats of the major vector, Anopheles flavirostris (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 2.64, P = 0.02 and AOR 3.43, P = 0.04). A larval survey of A. flavirostris revealed a higher density of early and late instars near human habitation (adjusted P < 0.05). The results suggest that larvae are associated with human habitation, thereby reinforcing malaria risk in people living close to larval habitats. This has implications for understanding the interaction between vectors, hosts, and parasites, and the potential for success of localized malaria control measures.

Alcohol, wine, and risk of epithelial ovarian cancer

Moderate alcohol intake can influence sex hormone levels and affect ovarian function as well as increasing breast cancer risk. This suggests that alcohol might also influence ovarian cancer risk. We have evaluated this among 696 Australian women with histologically confirmed epithelial ovarian cancer and 786 cancer-free control women, selected at random from the electoral roll. Sociodemographic information and a detailed reproductive history were collected in a face-to-face interview, and information about diet and alcohol consumption was obtained from a food frequency questionnaire. Logistic regression was used to calculate adjusted odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). Overall, 59% of women drank

Sleepiness, sleep-disordered breathing, and accident risk factors in commercial vehicle drivers

Sleep-disordered breathing and excessive sleepiness may be more common in commercial vehicle drivers than in the general population. The relative importance of factors causing excessive sleepiness and accidents in this population remains unclear. We measured the prevalence of excessive sleepiness and sleep-disordered breathing and assessed accident risk factors in 2,342 respondents to a questionnaire distributed to a random sample of 3,268 Australian commercial vehicle drivers and another 161 drivers among 244 invited to undergo polysomnography. More than half (59.6%) of drivers had sleep-disordered breathing and 15.8% had obstructive sleep apnea syndrome. Twenty-four percent of drivers had excessive sleepiness. Increasing sleepiness was related to an increased accident risk. The sleepiest 5% of drivers on the Epworth Sleepiness Scale and Functional Outcomes of Sleep Questionnaire had an in-creased risk of an accident (odds ratio [OR] 1.91, p = 0.02 and OR 2.23, p < 0.01, respectively) and multiple accidents (OR 2.67, p < 0.01 and OR 2.39, p = 0.01), adjusted for established risk factors. There was an increased accident risk with narcotic analgesic use (OR 2.40, p < 0.01) and antihistamine use (OR 3.44, p = 0.04). Chronic excessive sleepiness and sleep-disordered breathing are common in Australian commercial vehicle drivers. Accident risk was related to increasing chronic sleepiness and antihistamine and narcotic analgesic use.

Risk of non-small cell lung cancer and the cytochrome P4501A1 Ile462Val polymorphism

Objective: The Ile462Val substitution in the cytochrome P450 1A1 gene (CYP1A1) results in increased enzymatic activity. Preliminary data suggesting a link between this polymorphism and lung cancer risk in Caucasians are inconsistent, reflecting small sample sizes and the relatively low frequency of the variant. Methods: The data set consisted of 1050 primary non-small cell lung cancer cases and 581 controls, a large homogenous population designed specifically to address previous inconsistencies. Patients were genotyped using a PCR-RFLP technique. Results: Carriers of the valine allele, CYP1A1*2C, (Ile/Val or Val/Val genotypes) were significantly over-represented in non-small cell lung cancer compared to controls (OR=1.9; 95% CI=1.2-2.9; p=0.005) when adjusted for confounders, particularly in women (OR=4.6; 95% CI=1.7-12.4; p=0.003). The valine variant was statistically significantly over-represented in cases of lung cancer younger than the median age (64 years) (OR=2.5; 95% CI=1.3-4.8; p=0.005) and cases with less than the median cumulative tobacco-smoke exposure (46 pack-years) (OR=2.4; 95% CI=1.3-4.7; p=0.007). Conclusions: These new data establish an association between the CYP1A1 Ile462Val polymorphism and the risk of developing non-small cell lung cancer, especially among women.

Smoking and elevated blood pressure are the most important risk factors for subarachnoid hemorrhage in the Asia-Pacific region - An overview of 26 cohorts involving 306,620 participants

Background and Purpose - The cause of subarachnoid hemorrhage ( SAH) is poorly understood and there are few large cohort studies of risk factors for SAH. We investigated the risk of SAH mortality and morbidity associated with common cardiovascular risk factors in the Asia-Pacific region and examined whether the strengths of these associations were different in Asian and Australasian ( predominantly white) populations. Methods - Cohort studies were identified from Internet electronic databases, searches of proceedings of meetings, and personal communication. Hazard ratios (HRs) for systolic blood pressure (SBP), current smoking, total serum cholesterol, body mass index (BMI), and alcohol drinking were calculated from Cox models that were stratified by sex and cohort and adjusted for age at risk. Results - Individual participant data from 26 prospective cohort studies ( total number of participants 306 620) that reported incident cases of SAH ( fatal and/or nonfatal) were available for analysis. During the median follow-up period of 8.2 years, a total of 236 incident cases of SAH were observed. Current smoking (HR, 2.4; 95% CI, 1.8 to 3.4) and SBP > 140 mm Hg ( HR, 2.0; 95% CI, 1.5 to 2.7) were significant and independent risk factors for SAH. Attributable risks of SAH associated with current smoking and elevated SBP ( similar to 140 mm Hg) were 29% and 19%, respectively. There were no significant associations between the risk of SAH and cholesterol, BMI, or drinking alcohol. The strength of the associations of the common cardiovascular risk factors with the risk of SAH did not differ much between Asian and Australasian regions. Conclusions - Cigarette smoking and SBP are the most important risk factors for SAH in the Asia-Pacific region.

Socioeconomic position, cognitive function, and clustering of cardiovascular risk factors in adolescence: Findings from the Mater University Study of Pregnancy and its outcomes

Objectives: The objectives of this study were to examine the extent of clustering of smoking, high levels of television watching, overweight, and high blood pressure among adolescents and whether this clustering varies by socioeconomic position and Cognitive function. Methods: This study was a cross-sectional analysis of 3613 (1742 females) participants of an Australian birth cohort who were examined at age 14. Results: Three hundred fifty-three (9.8%) of the participants had co-occurrence of three or four risk factors. Risk factors clustered in these adolescents with a greater number of participants than would be predicted by assumptions of independence having no risk factors and three or four risk factors. The extent of clustering tended to be greater in those from lower-income families and among those with lower cognitive function. The age-adjusted ratio of observed to expected cooccurrence of three or four risk factors was 2.70 (95% confidence interval [Cl], 1.80-4.06) among those from low-income families and 1.70 (95% Cl, 1.34-2.16) among those from more affluent families. The ratio among those with low Raven's scores (nonverbal reasoning) was 2.36 (95% Cl, 1.69-3.30) and among those with higher scores was 1.51 (95% Cl, 1.19-1.92); similar results for the WRAT 3 score (reading ability) were 2.69 (95% Cl, 1.85-3.94) and 1.68 (95% Cl, 1.34-2.11). Clustering did not differ by sex. Conclusion: Among adolescents, coronary heart disease risk factors cluster, and there is some evidence that this clustering is greater among those from families with low income and those who have lower cognitive function.

The evolution of the Global Burden of Disease framework for disease, injury and risk factor quantification: Developing the evidence base for national, regional and global public health action

Reliable, comparable information about the main causes of disease and injury in populations, and how these are changing, is a critical input for debates about priorities in the health sector. Traditional sources of information about the descriptive epidemiology of diseases, injuries and risk factors are generally incomplete, fragmented and of uncertain reliability and comparability. Lack of a standardized measurement framework to permit comparisons across diseases and injuries, as well as risk factors, and failure to systematically evaluate data quality have impeded comparative analyses of the true public health importance of various conditions and risk factors. As a consequence the impact of major conditions and hazards on population health has been poorly appreciated, often leading to a lack of public health investment. Global disease and risk factor quantification improved dramatically in the early 1990s with the completion of the first Global Burden of Disease Study. For the first time, the comparative importance of over 100 diseases and injuries, and ten major risk factors, for global and regional health status could be assessed using a common metric (Disability-Adjusted Life Years) which simultaneously accounted for both premature mortality and the prevalence, duration and severity of the non-fatal consequences of disease and injury. As a consequence, mental health conditions and injuries, for which non-fatal outcomes are of particular significance, were identified as being among the leading causes of disease/injury burden worldwide, with clear implications for policy, particularly prevention. A major achievement of the Study was the complete global descriptive epidemiology, including incidence, prevalence and mortality, by age, sex and Region, of over 100 diseases and injuries. National applications, further methodological research and an increase in data availability have led to improved national, regional and global estimates for 2000, but substantial uncertainty around the disease burden caused by major conditions, including, HIV, remains. The rapid implementation of cost-effective data collection systems in developing countries is a key priority if global public policy to promote health is to be more effectively informed.

Using extreme value theory to measure value-at-risk for daily electricity spot prices

The recent deregulation in electricity markets worldwide has heightened the importance of risk management in energy markets. Assessing Value-at-Risk (VaR) in electricity markets is arguably more difficult than in traditional financial markets because the distinctive features of the former result in a highly unusual distribution of returns-electricity returns are highly volatile, display seasonalities in both their mean and volatility, exhibit leverage effects and clustering in volatility, and feature extreme levels of skewness and kurtosis. With electricity applications in mind, this paper proposes a model that accommodates autoregression and weekly seasonals in both the conditional mean and conditional volatility of returns, as well as leverage effects via an EGARCH specification. In addition, extreme value theory (EVT) is adopted to explicitly model the tails of the return distribution. Compared to a number of other parametric models and simple historical simulation based approaches, the proposed EVT-based model performs well in forecasting out-of-sample VaR. In addition, statistical tests show that the proposed model provides appropriate interval coverage in both unconditional and, more importantly, conditional contexts. Overall, the results are encouraging in suggesting that the proposed EVT-based model is a useful technique in forecasting VaR in electricity markets. (c) 2005 International Institute of Forecasters. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Health-protective behaviours and risk of fall-related hip fractures: a population-based case-control study

Background: fall-related hip fractures are one of the most common causes of disability and mortality in older age. The study aimed to quantify the relationship between lifestyle behaviours and the risk of fall-related hip fracture in community-dwelling older people. The purpose was to contribute evidence for the promotion of healthy ageing as a population-based intervention for falls injury prevention. Methods: a case-control study was conducted with 387 participants, with a case-control ratio of 1:2. Incident cases of fall-related hip fracture in people aged 65 and over were recruited from six hospital sites in Brisbane, Australia, in 2003-04. Community-based controls, matched by age, sex and postcode, were recruited via electoral roll sampling. A questionnaire designed to assess lifestyle risk factors, identified as determinants of healthy ageing, was administered at face-to-face interviews. Results: behavioural factors which had a significant independent protective effect on the risk of hip fracture included never smoking [adjusted odds ratio (AOR): 0.33 (0.12-0.88)], moderate alcohol consumption in mid- and older age [AOR: 0.49 (0.25-0.95)], not losing weight between mid- and older age [AOR: 0.36 (0.20-0.65)], playing sport in older age [AOR: 0.49 (0.29-0.83)] and practising a greater number of preventive medical care [AOR: 0.54 (0.32-0.94)] and self-health behaviours [AOR: 0.56 (0.33-0.94)]. Conclusion: with universal exposures, clear associations and modifiable behavioural factors, this study has contributed evidence to reduce the major public health burden of fall-related hip fractures using readily implemented population-based healthy ageing strategies.

Global and regional burden of disease and risk factors, 2001: systematic analysis of population health data

Background Our aim was to calculate the global burden of disease and risk factors for 2001, to examine regional trends from 1990 to 2001, and to provide a starting point for the analysis of the Disease Control Priorities Project (DCPP). Methods We calculated mortality, incidence, prevalence, and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) for 136 diseases and injuries, for seven income/geographic country groups. To assess trends, we re-estimated all-cause mortality for 1990 with the same methods as for 2001. We estimated mortality and disease burden attributable to 19 risk factors. Findings About 56 million people died in 2001. Of these, 10.6 million were children, 99% of whom lived in low-and-middle-income countries. More than half of child deaths in 2001 were attributable to acute respiratory infections, measles, diarrhoea, malaria, and HIV/AIDS. The ten leading diseases for global disease burden were perinatal conditions, lower respiratory infections, ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, HIV/AIDS, diarrhoeal diseases, unipolar major depression, malaria, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and tuberculosis. There was a 20% reduction in global disease burden per head due to communicable, maternal, perinatal, and nutritional conditions between 1990 and 2001. Almost half the disease burden in low-and-middle-income countries is now from non-communicable diseases (disease burden per head in Sub-Saharan Africa and the low-and-middle-income countries of Europe and Central Asia increased between 1990 and 2001). Undernutrition remains the leading risk factor for health loss. An estimated 45% of global mortality and 36% of global disease burden are attributable to the joint hazardous effects of the 19 risk factors studied. Uncertainty in all-cause mortality estimates ranged from around 1% in high-income countries to 15-20% in Sub-Saharan Africa. Uncertainty was larger for mortality from specific diseases, and for incidence and prevalence of non-fatal outcomes. Interpretation Despite uncertainties about mortality and burden of disease estimates, our findings suggest that substantial gains in health have been achieved in most populations, countered by the HIV/AIDS epidemic in Sub-Saharan Africa and setbacks in adult mortality in countries of the former Soviet Union. our results on major disease, injury, and risk factor causes of loss of health, together with information on the cost-effectiveness of interventions, can assist in accelerating progress towards better health and reducing the persistent differentials in health between poor and rich countries.

Is modern medicine at risk of losing the plot?

Contemporary medicine has much to its credit, but has created an insatiable demand for new technologies and more health services, fed by commercial promotion, professional advocacy and sociopolitical pressure. Total health expenditure at the national level is now almost 10% of gross domestic product and is expected to top 16% by 2020. After recent inquiries into the failings of its public health system, the Queensland Government has committed itself to a 25% increase in expenditure on health over the next 5 years. But will it lead to better population health, and is it sustainable? The return-on-investment curve for modern health care may be flattening out, in an environment of growing numbers of older patients with chronic illnesses, maldistribution of services and hospital overcrowding. A change in thinking is required if current medical practice is to avoid imploding when confronted with the next major economic downturn. Health policy, service funding and clinical training must focus on critical appraisal of the effectiveness of health care technologies and the structure and financing of health care systems. Practising clinicians will be obliged to provide leadership in determining value for money in the choice of health care for specific patient populations and how that care is delivered.

Double-heater-wire circuits and heat-and-moisture exchangers and the risk of ventilator-associated pneumonia

Objective: To compare the incidence of ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) in patients ventilated in intensive care by means of circuits humidified with a hygroscopic heat-and-moisture exchanger with a bacterial viral filter (HME) or hot-water humidification with a heater wire in both inspiratory and expiratory circuit limbs (DHW) or the inspiratory limb only (SHW). Design: A prospective, randomized trial. Setting: A metropolitan teaching hospital's general intensive care unit. Patients: Three hundred eighty-one patients requiring a minimum period of mechanical ventilation of 48 hrs. Interventions: Patients were randomized to humidification with use of an HME (n = 190), SHW (n = 94), or DHW (n = 97). Measurements and Main Results. Study end points were VAP diagnosed on the basis of Clinical Pulmonary Infection Score (CPIS) (1), HME resistance after 24 hrs of use, endotracheal tube resistance, and HME use per patient. VAP occurred with similar frequency in all groups (13%, HME; 14%, DHW; 10%, SHW; p = 0.61) and was predicted only by current smoking (adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 2.1; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.1-3.9; p =.03) and ventilation days (AOR, 1.05; 95% Cl, 1.0-1.2; p =.001); VAP was less likely for patients with an admission diagnosis of pneumonia (AOR, 0.40; 95% Cl, 0.4-0.2; p =.04). HME resistance after 24 hrs of use measured at a gas flow of 50 L/min was 0.9 cm H2O (0.4-2.9). Endotracheal tube resistance was similar for all three groups (16-19 cm H2O min/L; p =.2), as were suction frequency, secretion thickness, and blood on suctioning (p =.32, p =.06, and p =.34, respectively). The HME use per patient per day was 1.13. Conclusions: Humidification technique does not influence either VAP incidence or secretion characteristics, but HMEs may have air-flow resistance higher than manufacturer specifications after 24 hrs of use.

Reduced variability of postural strategy prevents normalization of motor changes induced by back pain: A risk factor for chronic trouble?

Variability is fundamental to biological systems and is important in posturomotor learning and control. Pain induces a protective postural strategy, although variability is normally preserved. If variability is lost, does the normal postural strategy return when pain stops? Sixteen subjects performed arm movements during control trials, when the movement evoked back pain and then when it did not. Variability in the postural strategy of the abdominal muscles and pain-related cognitions were evaluated. Only those subjects for whom pain induced a reduction in variability of the postural strategy failed to return to a normal strategy when pain stopped. They were also characterized by their pain-related cognitions. Ongoing perception of threat to the back may exert tighter evaluative control over variability of the postural strategy.