Development and evaluation of neural network freeway incident detection models using field data

This paper discusses a multi-layer feedforward (MLF) neural network incident detection model that was developed and evaluated using field data. In contrast to published neural network incident detection models which relied on simulated or limited field data for model development and testing, the model described in this paper was trained and tested on a real-world data set of 100 incidents. The model uses speed, flow and occupancy data measured at dual stations, averaged across all lanes and only from time interval t. The off-line performance of the model is reported under both incident and non-incident conditions. The incident detection performance of the model is reported based on a validation-test data set of 40 incidents that were independent of the 60 incidents used for training. The false alarm rates of the model are evaluated based on non-incident data that were collected from a freeway section which was video-taped for a period of 33 days. A comparative evaluation between the neural network model and the incident detection model in operation on Melbourne's freeways is also presented. The results of the comparative performance evaluation clearly demonstrate the substantial improvement in incident detection performance obtained by the neural network model. The paper also presents additional results that demonstrate how improvements in model performance can be achieved using variable decision thresholds. Finally, the model's fault-tolerance under conditions of corrupt or missing data is investigated and the impact of loop detector failure/malfunction on the performance of the trained model is evaluated and discussed. The results presented in this paper provide a comprehensive evaluation of the developed model and confirm that neural network models can provide fast and reliable incident detection on freeways. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Protein fold recognition without Boltzmann statistics or explicit physical basis

We present a fast method for finding optimal parameters for a low-resolution (threading) force field intended to distinguish correct from incorrect folds for a given protein sequence. In contrast to other methods, the parameterization uses information from >10(7) misfolded structures as well as a set of native sequence-structure pairs. In addition to testing the resulting force field's performance on the protein sequence threading problem, results are shown that characterize the number of parameters necessary for effective structure recognition.

A comparison of segmental and wrist-to-ankle methodologies of bioimpedance analysis

The common approach of bioelectrical impedance analysis to estimate body water uses a wrist-to-ankle methodology which, although not indicated by theory, has the advantage of ease of application particularly for clinical studies involving patients with debilitating diseases. A number of authors have suggested the use of a segmental protocol in which the impedances of the trunk and limbs are measured separately to provide a methodology more in keeping with basic theory. The segmental protocol hits not, however, been generally adopted, partly because of the increased complexity involved in its application, and partly because studies comparing the two methodologies have not clearly demonstrated a significant improvement from the segmental methodology. We have conducted a small pilot study involving ten subjects to investigate the efficacy of the two methodologies in a group of normal subjects. The study did not require the independent measure of body water, by for example isotope dilution, as the subjects were maintained in a state of constant hydration with only the distribution between limbs and trunk changing as a result of change in posture. The results demonstrate a significant difference between the two methodologies in predicting the expected constancy of body water in this study, with the segmental methodology indicating a mean percentage change in extracellular water of -2.2%; which was not significantly different from the expected null result, whereas the wrist-to-ankle methodology indicated a mean percentage change in extracellular water of -6.6%. This is significantly different from the null result, and from the value obtained from the segmental methodology (p = 0.006). Similar results were obtained using estimates of total body water from the two methodologies. (C) 1998 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Contradiction of quantum mechanics with local hidden variables for quadrature phase amplitude measurements

We demonstrate a contradiction of quantum mechanics with local hidden variable theories for continuous quadrature phase amplitude (position and momentum) measurements. For any quantum state, this contradiction is lost for situations where the quadrature phase amplitude results are always macroscopically distinct. We show that for optical realizations of this experiment, where one uses homodyne detection techniques to perform the quadrature phase amplitude measurement, one has an amplification prior to detection, so that macroscopic fields are incident on photodiode detectors. The high efficiencies of such detectors may open a way for a loophole-free test of local hidden variable theories.

Modeling ex vivo hematopoiesis using chemical engineering metaphors

Ex vivo hematopoiesis is increasingly used for clinical applications. Models of ex vivo hematopoiesis are required to better understand the complex dynamics and to optimize hematopoietic culture processes. A general mathematical modeling framework is developed which uses traditional chemical engineering metaphors to describe the complex hematopoietic dynamics. Tanks and tubular reactors are used to describe the (pseudo-) stochastic and deterministic elements of hematopoiesis, respectively. Cells at any point in the differentiation process can belong to either an immobilized, inert phase (quiescent cells) or a mobile, active phase (cycling cells). The model describes five processes: (1) flow (differentiation), (2) autocatalytic formation (growth),(3) degradation (death), (4) phase transition from immobilized to mobile phase (quiescent to cycling transition), and (5) phase transition from mobile to immobilized phase (cycling to quiescent transition). The modeling framework is illustrated with an example concerning the effect of TGF-beta 1 on erythropoiesis. (C) 1998 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sensitive and specific detection of Clavibacter xyli subsp. xyli, causal agent of ratoon stunting disease of sugarcane, with a polymerase chain reaction-based assay

A sensitive, specific polymerase chain reaction-based assay was developed for the detection of the causal agent of ratoon stunting disease of sugarcane, Clavibacter xyli subsp. xyli. This assay uses oligonucleotide primers derived from the internal transcribed spacer region between the 16S and 23S rRNA genes of the bacterial rRNA operon. The assay is specific for C. xyli subsp. xyli and does not produce an amplification product from the template of the closely related bacterium C. xyli subsp. cynodontis, nor from other bacterial species. The assay was successfully applied to the detection of C. xyli subsp. xyli in fibrovascular fluid extracted from sugarcane and was sensitive to approximately 22 cells per PCR assay. A multiplex PCR test was also developed which identified and differentiated C. xyli subsp. xyli and C. xyli subsp. cynodontis in a single PCR assay.

Extended GCD and Hermite normal form algorithms via lattice basis reduction

Extended gcd calculation has a long history and plays an important role in computational number theory and linear algebra. Recent results have shown that finding optimal multipliers in extended gcd calculations is difficult. We present an algorithm which uses lattice basis reduction to produce small integer multipliers x(1), ..., x(m) for the equation s = gcd (s(1), ..., s(m)) = x(1)s(1) + ... + x(m)s(m), where s1, ... , s(m) are given integers. The method generalises to produce small unimodular transformation matrices for computing the Hermite normal form of an integer matrix.

Asymmetry and duration dependence in Australian GDP and unemployment

The per iodic structure of business cycles suggests that significant asymmetries are present over different phases of the cycle. This paper uses markov regime-switching models with fixed and duration dependent transition probabilities to directly model expansions, contractions and durations in Australian GDP growth and unemployment growth. Evidence is found of significant asymmetry in growth rates across expansions and contractions for both series. GDP contractions exhibit duration dependence implying that as output recessions age the likelihood of switching into an expansion phase increases. Unemployment growth does not exhibit duration dependence in either phase. Evidence is also presented that non-linearities in unemployment growth are well explained by the asymmetries in the GDP growth cycle. The analysis suggests that recessions are periods of rapid and intense job destruction, that Australian unemployment tends to ratchet up in recessionary periods and, in contrast to US and UK studies, that shocks to Australian unemployment growth are more persistent in recessions than expansions. [E37 C5 C41].

Biomodel-guided stereotaxy

OBJECTIVES: To simplify the practice of stereotactic surgery by using an original method, apparatus, and solid anatomic replica for trajectory planning and to validate the method and apparatus in a laboratory and clinical trial. METHODS: The patient is marked with fiducials and scanned by using computed tomography or magnetic resonance imaging. The three-dimensional data are converted to a format acceptable to stereolithography. Stereolithography uses a laser to polymerize photosensitive resin into a solid plastic model (biomodel). Stereolithography can replicate brood vessels, soft tissue, tumor, and bone accurately (

Frequency stabilised grating feedback laser diode for atom cooling applications

The free running linewidth of an external cavity grating feedback diode laser is on the order of a few megahertz and is limited by the mechanical and acoustic vibrations of the external cavity. Such frequency fluctuations can be removed by electronic feedback. We present a hybrid stabilisation technique that uses both a Fabry-Perot confocal cavity and an atomic resonance to achieve excellent short and long term frequency stability. The system has been shown to reduce the laser linewidth of an external cavity diode laser by an order of magnitude to 140 kHz, while limiting frequency excursions to 60 kHz relative to an absolute reference over periods of several hours. The scheme also presents a simple way to frequency offset two lasers many gigahertz apart which should find a use in atom cooling experiments, where hyperfine ground-state frequency separations are often required.

Climate change, coral bleaching and the future of the world's coral reefs

Sea temperatures in many tropical regions have increased by almost 1 degrees C over the past 100 years, and are currently increasing at similar to 1-2 degrees C per century. Coral bleaching occurs when the thermal tolerance of corals and their photosynthetic symbionts (zooxanthellae) is exceeded. Mass coral bleaching has occurred in association with episodes of elevated sea temperatures over the past 20 years and involves the loss of the zooxanthellae following chronic photoinhibition. Mass bleaching has resulted in significant losses of live coral in many parts of the world. This paper considers the biochemical, physiological and ecological perspectives of coral bleaching. It also uses the outputs of four runs from three models of global climate change which simulate changes in sea temperature and hence how the frequency and intensity of bleaching events will change over the next 100 years. The results suggest that the thermal tolerances of reef-building corals are likely to be exceeded every year within the next few decades. Events as severe as the 1998 event, the worst on record, are likely to become commonplace within 20 years. Most information suggests that the capacity for acclimation by corals has already been exceeded, and that adaptation will be too slow to avert a decline in the quality of the world's reefs. The rapidity of the changes that are predicted indicates a major problem for tropical marine ecosystems and suggests that unrestrained warming cannot occur without the loss and degradation of coral reefs on a global scale.

Programming internet based DAI applications in Qu-Prolog

This paper presents the unique collection of additional features of Qu-Prolog, a variant of the Al programming language Prolog, and illustrates how they can be used for implementing DAI applications. By this we mean applications comprising communicating information servers, expert systems, or agents, with sophisticated reasoning capabilities and internal concurrency. Such an application exploits the key features of Qu-Prolog: support for the programming of sound non-clausal inference systems, multi-threading, and high level inter-thread message communication between Qu-Prolog query threads anywhere on the internet. The inter-thread communication uses email style symbolic names for threads, allowing easy construction of distributed applications using public names for threads. How threads react to received messages is specified by a disjunction of reaction rules which the thread periodically executes. A communications API allows smooth integration of components written in C, which to Qu-Prolog, look like remote query threads.

Characterization of pore size distributions of mesoporous materials from adsorption isotherms

In this article, a new hybrid model for estimating the pore size distribution of micro- and mesoporous materials is developed, and tested with the adsorption data of nitrogen, oxygen, and argon on ordered mesoporous materials reported in the literature. For the micropore region, the model uses the Dubinin-Rudushkevich (DR) isotherm with the Chen-Yang modification. A recent isotherm model of the authors for nonporous materials, which uses a continuum-mechanical model for the multilayer region and the Unilan model for the submonolayer region, has been extended for adsorption in mesopores. The experimental data is inverted using regularization to obtain the pore size distribution. The present model was found to be successful in predicting the pore size distribution of pure as well as binary physical mixtures of MCM-41 synthesized with different templates, with results in agreement with those from the XRD method and nonlocal density functional theory. It was found that various other recent methods, as well as the classical Broekhoff and de Beer method, underpredict the pore diameter of MCM-41. The present model has been successfully applied to MCM-48, SBA's, CMK, KIT, HMS, FSM, MTS, mesoporous fly ash, and a large number of other regular mesoporous materials.

Dual processes in recognition: Does a focus on measurement operations provide a sufficient foundation?

Current theoretical thinking about dual processes in recognition relies heavily on the measurement operations embodied within the process dissociation procedure. We critically evaluate the ability of this procedure to support this theoretical enterprise. We show that there are alternative processes that would produce a rough invariance in familiarity (a key prediction of the dual-processing approach) and that the process dissociation procedure does not have the power to differentiate between these alternative possibilities. We also show that attempts to relate parameters estimated by the process dissociation procedure to subjective reports (remember-know judgments) cannot differentiate between alternative dual-processing models and that there are problems with some of the historical evidence and with obtaining converging evidence. Our conclusion is that more specific theories incorporating ideas about representation and process are required.

Simultaneous steady state and dynamic design of process systems using structural indicators

The simultaneous design of the steady-state and dynamic performance of a process has the ability to satisfy much more demanding dynamic performance criteria than the design of dynamics only by the connection of a control system. A method for designing process dynamics based on the use of a linearised systems' eigenvalues has been developed. The eigenvalues are associated with system states using the unit perturbation spectral resolution (UPSR), characterising the dynamics of each state. The design method uses a homotopy approach to determine a final design which satisfies both steady-state and dynamic performance criteria. A highly interacting single stage forced circulation evaporator system, including control loops, was designed by this method with the goal of reducing the time taken for the liquid composition to reach steady-state. Initially the system was successfully redesigned to speed up the eigenvalue associated with the liquid composition state, but this did not result in an improved startup performance. Further analysis showed that the integral action of the composition controller was the source of the limiting eigenvalue. Design changes made to speed up this eigenvalue did result in an improved startup performance. The proposed approach provides a structured way to address the design-control interface, giving significant insight into the dynamic behaviour of the system such that a systematic design or redesign of an existing system can be undertaken with confidence.