Advances in application of climate prediction in agriculture

Agricultural ecosystems and their associated business and government systems are diverse and varied. They range from farms, to input supply businesses, to marketing and government policy systems, among others. These systems are dynamic and responsive to fluctuations in climate. Skill in climate prediction offers considerable opportunities to managers via its potential to realise system improvements (i.e. increased food production and profit and/or reduced risks). Realising these opportunities, however, is not straightforward as the forecasting skill is imperfect and approaches to applying the existing skill to management issues have not been developed and tested extensively. While there has been much written about impacts of climate variability, there has been relatively little done in relation to applying knowledge of climate predictions to modify actions ahead of likely impacts. However, a considerable body of effort in various parts of the world is now being focused on this issue of applying climate predictions to improve agricultural systems. In this paper, we outline the basis for climate prediction, with emphasis on the El Nino-Southern Oscillation phenomenon, and catalogue experiences at field, national and global scales in applying climate predictions to agriculture. These diverse experiences are synthesised to derive general lessons about approaches to applying climate prediction in agriculture. The case studies have been selected to represent a diversity of agricultural systems and scales of operation. They also represent the on-going activities of some of the key research and development groups in this field around the world. The case studies include applications at field/farm scale to dryland cropping systems in Australia, Zimbabwe, and Argentina. This spectrum covers resource-rich and resource-poor farming with motivations ranging from profit to food security. At national and global scale we consider possible applications of climate prediction in commodity forecasting (wheat in Australia) and examine implications on global wheat trade and price associated with global consequences of climate prediction. In cataloguing these experiences we note some general lessons. Foremost is the value of an interdisciplinary systems approach in connecting disciplinary Knowledge in a manner most suited to decision-makers. This approach often includes scenario analysis based oil simulation with credible models as a key aspect of the learning process. Interaction among researchers, analysts and decision-makers is vital in the development of effective applications all of the players learn. Issues associated with balance between information demand and supply as well as appreciation of awareness limitations of decision-makers, analysts, and scientists are highlighted. It is argued that understanding and communicating decision risks is one of the keys to successful applications of climate prediction. We consider that advances of the future will be made by better connecting agricultural scientists and practitioners with the science of climate prediction. Professions involved in decision making must take a proactive role in the development of climate forecasts if the design and use of climate predictions are to reach their full potential. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Advances in neurotrauma in Australia 1970-2000

The management of neurotrauma in Australia has been one of the significant public health triumphs during the last 30 years of the 20th century. State and national government agencies act in a coordinated fashion to collect data and to promote research on how to manage neurotrauma patients. Between 1970 and 1995, fatalities from road accidents decreased by 47%. Hospital admissions have decreased by 40% despite a 40% increase in the population and a 120% increase in registered vehicles. Fatalities per 10,000 registered vehicles were 8.05% in 1970 and they fell to 1.84% per vehicles in 1995, while fatalities per 10;000 population were 3 in 1970 falling to 1.11 in 1995. Hospitalization from road crashes decreased 23% between March 1988 and March 1997. Public education has steadily improved, backed by the state public health sources. A uniform code of road safety laws has been adopted, backed by legislation and legal penalties and increasing police enforcement. Clinical care of patients has improved as a result of faster communications, tele-medicine, trauma systems, the CT scanner; intensive care units, and improved monitoring. Patient rehabilitation and counseling are now carried out at units accredited by the Australian Council on Health Care Standards.

Reconciling Globalisation and Technological Change: Growing Income Inequalities and Remedial Policies

From the mid-1970s through the 1980s and into the 1990s, wage inequality and skill differentials in earnings and employment increased sharply in OECD countries. After 1973 and especially in the 1980s, the US experienced a dismal real wage performance for the less skilled. Among the factors singled out by economists as possible major contributors to this development are economic globalisation processes and skill-biased technological change. Although these are most commonly considered as independent influences, after critically outlining views about these factors, this article argues that strong interdependence exists between them. The article then examines potential policy responses to this growing inequality.

Recent advances on the role of CD40 and dendritic cells in immunity and tolerance

CD40 is a key signaling pathway for the function of B cells, monocytes, and dendritic cells in the immune system, and plays an important role in inflammatory pathways of nonhemopoietic cells. The NFkappaB family of transcription factors is a critical mediator in inflammation. NFkappaB is involved both in the regulation of CD40 expression and in cell signaling after CD40 ligation. This positive feedback loop linking NFkappaB and CD40 plays an important role in the control of the adaptive immune response, with fundamental implications for immunity and tolerance in vivo.