A landscape-scale test of the predictive ability of a spatially explicit model for population viability analysis

1. Although population viability analysis (PVA) is widely employed, forecasts from PVA models are rarely tested. This study in a fragmented forest in southern Australia contrasted field data on patch occupancy and abundance for the arboreal marsupial greater glider Petauroides volans with predictions from a generic spatially explicit PVA model. This work represents one of the first landscape-scale tests of its type. 2. Initially we contrasted field data from a set of eucalypt forest patches totalling 437 ha with a naive null model in which forecasts of patch occupancy were made, assuming no fragmentation effects and based simply on remnant area and measured densities derived from nearby unfragmented forest. The naive null model predicted an average total of approximately 170 greater gliders, considerably greater than the true count (n = 81). 3. Congruence was examined between field data and predictions from PVA under several metapopulation modelling scenarios. The metapopulation models performed better than the naive null model. Logistic regression showed highly significant positive relationships between predicted and actual patch occupancy for the four scenarios (P = 0.001-0.006). When the model-derived probability of patch occupancy was high (0.50-0.75, 0.75-1.00), there was greater congruence between actual patch occupancy and the predicted probability of occupancy. 4. For many patches, probability distribution functions indicated that model predictions for animal abundance in a given patch were not outside those expected by chance. However, for some patches the model either substantially over-predicted or under-predicted actual abundance. Some important processes, such as inter-patch dispersal, that influence the distribution and abundance of the greater glider may not have been adequately modelled. 5. Additional landscape-scale tests of PVA models, on a wider range of species, are required to assess further predictions made using these tools. This will help determine those taxa for which predictions are and are not accurate and give insights for improving models for applied conservation management.

Determination of the stability constants of mercury(II) complexes of mixed donor macrobicyclic encapsulating ligands

The reactions of mercury(II) with the mixed donor encapsulating ligands 3,6,16-trithia-6,11,19-triazabicyclo[6.6.6]icosane (AMN(3)S(3)sar) and 1-amino-8-methyl-6,19-dithia-3,10,13,16-tetraazabicyclo[6.6.6]icosane (AMN(4)S(2)sar) have been studied. NMR ligand-ligand competition experiments with the ligands 1,4,8,11-tetraazaeyclotetradecane ([14]aneN(4)), 1-thia-4,7,10-triazacyclododecane ([12]aneN(3)S) and ethylenediaminetetraacetic acid (EDTA) with AMN(3)S(3)sar and Hg(II) indicated that [14]aneN(4) would be an appropriate competing ligand for the, determination of the Hg(II) stability constant. Calculations indicated the ratio of concentrations of AMN3S3sar, [14]aneN(4) and Hg(II) required for the determination of the stability constant ranged from 1:1:1 to 1:5:1. Refinement of the titration curves yielded log(10)K[Hg(AMN(3)S(3)sar)](2+) = 17.7. A similar competition titration resulted in the determination of the stability constant for the AMN(4)S(2)sar system as log(10)K[Hg(AMN(4)S(2)sar)](2+) = 19.5. The observed binding constants for the mixed N/S donor systems and the hexaaza analogues sar (3,6,10,13,16,19-hexaazabicyclo [6.6.6]icosane) and diamsar (1,8-diamino-3,6,10,13,16,19 -hexazabicyclo [6.6.6] icosane (log(10)K-[Hg(diamsar)](2+) = 26.4; log(10)K[Hg(sar)](2+) = 28.1) differ by approximately ten orders of magnitude. The difference is ascribed not to a cryptate effect but to a mismatch in the Hg-N and Hg-S bond lengths in the N/S systems.

Cervical screening: population-based comparisons between self-reported survey and registry-derived Pap test rates

Objective: To compare self-reported cervical screening rates, as recorded in the 1998 NSW Health Survey, with registry-based cervical screening rates for NSW for the same period; and to examine factors associated with over-estimates of cervical screening rates by self-report. Methods: Self-reported cervical screening data was extracted from the 1998 NSW Health Survey, biennial screening rates estimated and compared with biennial cervical screening rates for 1997-98, as recorded on the NSW Pap Test Register (PTR). Rates and differences were related to socio-demographic characteristics of the 17 Area Health Services of NSW. Results: According to the 1998 NSW Health Survey, 74% of women reported having a Pap test during the previous two years. The equivalent rate recorded on the NSW PTR for 1997-98 was 62% (p

A spectral-based cusum test of evolutionary change

We develop a test of evolutionary change that incorporates a null hypothesis of homogeneity, which encompasses time invariance in the variance and autocovariance structure of residuals from estimated econometric relationships. The test framework is based on examining whether shifts in spectral decomposition between two frames of data are significant. Rejection of the null hypothesis will point not only to weak nonstationarity but to shifts in the structure of the second-order moments of the limiting distribution of the random process. This would indicate that the second-order properties of any underlying attractor set has changed in a statistically significant way, pointing to the presence of evolutionary change. A demonstration of the test's applicability to a real-world macroeconomic problem is accomplished by applying the test to the Australian Building Society Deposits (ABSD) model.

Thermal stability of mixed-cation alpha-sialon ceramics

A series of alpha-sialon (alpha') compositions containing mixed stabilising cations were prepared, by introducing additional CaO to a basic Sm alpha-sialon compositions. The thermal stability of these Sm-Ca-containing alpha-sialon phases was investigated using XRD, SEM and EDXS techniques. It was found that the addition of calcium into the Sm alpha-sialon systems greatly improved the stability of the alpha-sialon phases. Calcium was found to be incorporated into the alpha-sialon structure, coexistent with the samarium, and partitioning of the calcium and samarium was observed between the alpha' phase and grain boundary phases. This indicates a technique which may be used to improve the thermal stability of the alpha' phase while maintaining good refractory phases at the gialon grain boundaries. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

α′ phase stability in Nd-Li-sialon systems

The formability and stability of the alpha-sialon (alpha') phase was investigated in multi-cation Nd-Li-sialon systems. Four samples were prepared, ranging from a pure Nd-sialon to a pure Li-sialon, with two intermediate samples being prepared with either lithium or neodymium replacing the other alpha'-stabilising additive by 20 eq.%, as to maintain an equivalent design composition in all samples. After sintering, all samples were subsequently heat treated up to 192 h at 1450 and 1300 degreesC. While significant quantities of the beta'-sialon (beta' phase were found in most samples, the high-lithium Li-Nd-sialon sample was found to be almost pure a' phase after sintering. Furthermore, the long-term stability of the a' phase on heat treatment was also found to be superior in both multi-cation samples than in either of the single-alpha'-stabilising-cation samples. This is thought to be related to improved retention of the lithium in the multi-cation systems, as much of the lithium was found to volatilise during sintering in the neodymium-free sample. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Longevity and stability of cratonic lithosphere: Insights from numerical simulations of coupled mantle convection and continental tectonics

[1] The physical conditions required to provide for the tectonic stability of cratonic crust and for the relative longevity of deep cratonic lithosphere within a dynamic, convecting mantle are explored through a suite of numerical simulations. The simulations allow chemically distinct continents to reside within the upper thermal boundary layer of a thermally convecting mantle layer. A rheologic formulation, which models both brittle and ductile behavior, is incorporated to allow for plate-like behavior and the associated subduction of oceanic lithosphere. Several mechanisms that may stabilize cratons are considered. The two most often invoked mechanisms, chemical buoyancy and/or high viscosity of cratonic root material, are found to be relatively ineffective if cratons come into contact with subduction zones. High root viscosity can provide for stability and longevity but only within a thick root limit in which the thickness of chemically distinct, high-viscosity cratonic lithosphere exceeds the thickness of old oceanic lithosphere by at least a factor of 2. This end-member implies a very thick mechanical lithosphere for cratons. A high brittle yield stress for cratonic lithosphere as a whole, relative to oceanic lithosphere, is found to be an effective and robust means for providing stability and lithospheric longevity. This mode does not require exceedingly deep strength within cratons. A high yield stress for only the crustal or mantle component of the cratonic lithosphere is found to be less effective as detachment zones can then form at the crust-mantle interface which decreases the longevity potential of cratonic roots. The degree of yield stress variations between cratonic and oceanic lithosphere required for stability and longevity can be decreased if cratons are bordered by continental lithosphere that has a relatively low yield stress, i.e., mobile belts. Simulations that combine all the mechanisms can lead to crustal stability and deep root longevity for model cratons over several mantle overturn times, but the dominant stabilizing factor remains a relatively high brittle yield stress for cratonic lithosphere.

Whispered voice test for screening for hearing impairment in adults and children: systematic review

Objective To determine the accuracy of the whispered voice test in detecting hearing impairment in adults and children. Design Systematic review of studies of test accuracy. Data sources Medline, Embase, Science Citation Index, unpublished theses, manual searching of bibliographies of known primary and review articles, and contact with authors. Study selection Two reviewers independently selected and extracted data on study characteristics, quality, and accuracy of studies. Studies were included if they had cross sectional designs, at least one of the index tests was the whispered voice test, and the reference test (audiometry) was performed on at least 80% of the participants. Data extraction Data were used to form 2x2 contingency tables with hearing impairment by audiometry as the reference standard. Data synthesis The eight studies that were found used six different techniques. The sensitivity in the four adult studies was 90% or 100% and the specificity was 70% to 87%. The sensitivity in the four childhood studies ranged from 80% to 96% and specificity ranged from 90% to 98%. Conclusion The whispered voice test is a simple and accurate test for detecting hearing impairment. There is some concern regarding the lower sensitivity in children and the overall reproducibility of the test, particularly in primary care settings. Further studies should be conducted in primary care settings to explore the influence of components of the testing procedure to optimise test sensitivity and to promote standardisation of the testing procedure.

Falls prevention in rural general practice: what stands the test of time and where to from here?

Objective: General practitioner recall of the 1992-96 'Stay on Your Feet'(SOYF) program and its influence on practice were surveyed five years post-intervention to gauge sustainability of the SOYF General Practice (GP) component. Methods: A survey assessed which SOYF components were still in existence, current practice related to falls prevention, and interest in professional development. All general practitioners (GPs) situated within the boundaries of a rural Area Health Service were mailed a survey in late 2001. Results: Response rate was 66.5% (139/ 209). Of 117 GPs in practice at the time of SOYF, 80.2% reported having heard of SOYF and 74.4% of those felt it had influenced practice. Half (50.9%) still had a copy of the SOYF GP resource and of those, 58.6% used it at least 'occasionally'. Three-quarters of GPs surveyed (75.2%) checked medications 'most/almost all' of the time with patients over 60 years; 46.7% assessed falls risk factors; 41.3% gave advice; and 22.6% referred to allied health practitioners. GPs indicated a strong interest in falls prevention- related professional development. There was no significant association between use of the SOYF resource package and any of the current falls prevention practices (all chi(2)>0.05). Conclusions and implications: There was high recall of SOYF and a general belief that it influenced practice. There was little indication that use of the resource had any lasting influence on GPs' practices. In future, careful thought needs to go into designing a program that has potential to affect long-term change in GPs' falls prevention practice.

Offspring size effects in the marine environment: A field test for a colonial invertebrate

A central tenet of life-history theory is the presence of a trade-off between the size and number of offspring that a female can produce for a given clutch. A crucial assumption of this trade-off is that larger offspring perform better than smaller offspring. Despite the importance of this assumption empirical, field-based tests are rare, especially for marine organisms. We tested this assumption for the marine invertebrate, Diplosoma listerianum, a colonial ascidian that commonly occurs in temperate marine communities. Colonies that came from larger larvae had larger feeding structures than colonies that came from smaller larvae. Colonies that came from larger larvae also had higher survival and growth after 2 weeks in the field than colonies that came from smaller larvae. However, after 3 weeks in the field the colonies began to fragment and we could not detect an effect of larval size. We suggest that offspring size can have strong effects on the initial recruitment of D. listerianum but because of the tendency of this species to fragment, offspring size effects are less persistent in this species than in others.

Macroscopic test of quantum mechanics versus stochastic electrodynamics

We identify a test of quantum mechanics versus macroscopic local realism in the form of stochastic electrodynamics. The test uses the steady-state triple quadrature correlations of a parametric oscillator below threshold.