Heavy tails, importance sampling and cross-entropy

We consider the problem of estimating P(Yi + (...) + Y-n > x) by importance sampling when the Yi are i.i.d. and heavy-tailed. The idea is to exploit the cross-entropy method as a toot for choosing good parameters in the importance sampling distribution; in doing so, we use the asymptotic description that given P(Y-1 + (...) + Y-n > x), n - 1 of the Yi have distribution F and one the conditional distribution of Y given Y > x. We show in some specific parametric examples (Pareto and Weibull) how this leads to precise answers which, as demonstrated numerically, are close to being variance minimal within the parametric class under consideration. Related problems for M/G/l and GI/G/l queues are also discussed.

Aquatic passive sampling of herbicides on naked particle loaded membranes: Accelerated measurement and empirical estimation of kinetic parameters

Water-sampler equilibrium partitioning coefficients and aqueous boundary layer mass transfer coefficients for atrazine, diuron, hexazionone and fluometuron onto C18 and SDB-RPS Empore disk-based aquatic passive samplers have been determined experimentally under a laminar flow regime (Re = 5400). The method involved accelerating the time to equilibrium of the samplers by exposing them to three water concentrations, decreasing stepwise to 50% and then 25% of the original concentration. Assuming first-order Fickian kinetics across a rate-limiting aqueous boundary layer, both parameters are determined computationally by unconstrained nonlinear optimization. In addition, a method of estimation of mass transfer coefficients-therefore sampling rates-using the dimensionless Sherwood correlation developed for laminar flow over a flat plate is applied. For each of the herbicides, this correlation is validated to within 40% of the experimental data. The study demonstrates that for trace concentrations (sub 0.1 mu g/L) and these flow conditions, a naked Empore disk performs well as an integrative sampler over short deployments (up to 7 days) for the range of polar herbicides investigated. The SDB-RPS disk allows a longer integrative period than the C18 disk due to its higher sorbent mass and/or its more polar sorbent chemistry. This work also suggests that for certain passive sampler designs, empirical estimation of sampling rates may be possible using correlations that have been available in the chemical engineering literature for some time.

Prediction of subcellular localization using sequence-biased recurrent networks

Motivation: Targeting peptides direct nascent proteins to their specific subcellular compartment. Knowledge of targeting signals enables informed drug design and reliable annotation of gene products. However, due to the low similarity of such sequences and the dynamical nature of the sorting process, the computational prediction of subcellular localization of proteins is challenging. Results: We contrast the use of feed forward models as employed by the popular TargetP/SignalP predictors with a sequence-biased recurrent network model. The models are evaluated in terms of performance at the residue level and at the sequence level, and demonstrate that recurrent networks improve the overall prediction performance. Compared to the original results reported for TargetP, an ensemble of the tested models increases the accuracy by 6 and 5% on non-plant and plant data, respectively.

Sampling tissue for DNA analysis of trees: Trunk cambium as an alternative to canopy leaves

The number of studies of tropical tree species that use molecular tools is increasing, most of which collect leaf tissue for genomic DNA extraction. In tropical trees the canopy is not only frequently inaccessible, but also, once reached, the leaf tissue is often heavily defended against herbivory by high concentrations of anti-predation compounds, which may inhibit downstream applications, particularly PCR. Cambium tissue, accessed directly from the tree trunk at ground level, offers a readily accessible resource that is less hampered by the presence of defensive chemicals than leaf tissue. Here we describe a simple method for obtaining tissue from the cambial zone for DNA extraction and test the applicability of the method in a range of tropical tree species. The method was used successfully to extract DNA from 11 species in nine families. A subset of the DNA extracts was tested in more detail and proved to be highly suitable for AFLP analysis.

Intrapartum fetal scalp lactate sampling for fetal assessment in the presence of a non-reassuring fetal heart rate trace (Protocol)

This is the protocol for a review and there is no abstract. The objectives are as follows: To evaluate the effectiveness and risks of fetal scalp lactate sampling in the assessment of fetal wellbeing during labour, compared with no testing or alternative additional testing (pH, fetal pulse oximetry, etc) for women exhibiting a non-reassuring cardiotocograph trace. A secondary objective of the review is to determine whether effectiveness and risks of intrapartum fetal scalp lactate sampling is influenced by the following: stage of labour; gestation less than 37 completed weeks, greater than or equal to 37 completed weeks; additional tests performed to confirm the presence or absence of fetal acidemia during labour.

Passive air sampling for persistent organic pollutants: Introductory remarks to the special issue

There have been a number of developments in the need, design and use of passive air samplers (PAS) for persistent organic pollutants (POPs). This article is the first in a Special Issue of the journal to review these developments and some of the data arising from them. We explain the need and benefit of developing PAS for POPs, the different approaches that can be used, and highlight future developments and needs. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Temporal variation in arthropod sampling effectiveness: the case for using the beat sheet method in cotton

Predatory insects and spiders are key elements of integrated pest management (IPM) programmes in agricultural crops such as cotton. Management decisions in IPM programmes should to be based on a reliable and efficient method for counting both predators and pests. Knowledge of the temporal constraints that influence sampling is required because arthropod abundance estimates are likely to vary over a growing season and within a day. Few studies have adequately quantified this effect using the beat sheet, a potentially important sampling method. We compared the commonly used methods of suction and visual sampling to the beat sheet, with reference to an absolute cage clamp method for determining the abundance of various arthropod taxa over 5 weeks. There were significantly more entomophagous arthropods recorded using the beat sheet and cage clamp methods than by using suction or visual sampling, and these differences were more pronounced as the plants grew. In a second trial, relative estimates of entomophagous and phytophagous arthropod abundance were made using beat sheet samples collected over a day. Beat sheet estimates of the abundance of only eight of the 43 taxa examined were found to vary significantly over a day. Beat sheet sampling is recommended in further studies of arthropod abundance in cotton, but researchers and pest management advisors should bear in mind the time of season and time of day effects.

Design for sampling - preliminary exploration

A modern mineral processing plant represents a substantial investment. During the design process, there is often a period when costs (or revenues) must be compensated for by cuts in capital expenditure. In many cases, sampling and measurement equipment provides a soft target for such 'savings'. This process is almost analgous to reducing the capital investment in a corner store by not including a cash register. The consequences will be quite similar - a serious lack of sound performance data and plenty of opportunities for theft - deliberate or inadvertent. This paper makes the case that investment in sampling and measurement equipment is more cost-effective during the design phase. Further, a strong measurement culture will have many benefits including the ability to take advantage of small gains. In almost any business, there are many more opportunities to make small gains than to make large, step changes. In short, if a project cannot justify the cost of accurate and reliable measurement of its performance, it probably should not be a project at all.

Genetic structure and male-mediated gene flow in the ghost bat (Macroderma gigas)

The Australian ghost bat is a large, opportunistic carnivorous species that has undergone a marked range contraction toward more mesic, tropical sites over the past century. Comparison of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) control region sequences and six nuclear microsatellite loci in 217 ghost bats from nine populations across subtropical and tropical Australia revealed strong population subdivision (mtDNA phi(ST) = 0.80; microsatellites URST = 0.337). Low-latitude (tropical) populations had higher heterozygosity and less marked phylogeographic structure and lower subdivision among sites within regions (within Northern Territory [NT] and within North Queensland [NQ]) than did populations at higher latitudes (subtropical sites; central Queensland [CQ]), although sampling of geographically proximal breeding sites is unavoidably restricted for the latter. Gene flow among populations within each of the northern regions appears to be male biased in that the difference in population subdivision for mtDNA and microsatellites (NT phi(ST) = 0.39, URST = 0.02; NQ phi(ST) = 0.60, URST = -0.03) is greater than expected from differences in the effective population size of haploid versus diploid loci. The high level of population subdivision across the range of the ghost bat contrasts with evidence for high gene flow in other chiropteran species and may be due to narrow physiological tolerances and consequent limited availability of roosts for ghost bats, particularly across the subtropical and relatively arid regions. This observation is consistent with the hypothesis that the contraction of the species' range is associated with late Holocene climate change. The extreme isolation among higher-latitude populations may predispose them to additional local extinctions if the processes responsible for the range contraction continue to operate.