An Incremental EM-based Learning Approach for On-Line Prediction of Hospital Resource Utilization

Objective: Inpatient length of stay (LOS) is an important measure of hospital activity, health care resource consumption, and patient acuity. This research work aims at developing an incremental expectation maximization (EM) based learning approach on mixture of experts (ME) system for on-line prediction of LOS. The use of a batchmode learning process in most existing artificial neural networks to predict LOS is unrealistic, as the data become available over time and their pattern change dynamically. In contrast, an on-line process is capable of providing an output whenever a new datum becomes available. This on-the-spot information is therefore more useful and practical for making decisions, especially when one deals with a tremendous amount of data. Methods and material: The proposed approach is illustrated using a real example of gastroenteritis LOS data. The data set was extracted from a retrospective cohort study on all infants born in 1995-1997 and their subsequent admissions for gastroenteritis. The total number of admissions in this data set was n = 692. Linked hospitalization records of the cohort were retrieved retrospectively to derive the outcome measure, patient demographics, and associated co-morbidities information. A comparative study of the incremental learning and the batch-mode learning algorithms is considered. The performances of the learning algorithms are compared based on the mean absolute difference (MAD) between the predictions and the actual LOS, and the proportion of predictions with MAD < 1 day (Prop(MAD < 1)). The significance of the comparison is assessed through a regression analysis. Results: The incremental learning algorithm provides better on-line prediction of LOS when the system has gained sufficient training from more examples (MAD = 1.77 days and Prop(MAD < 1) = 54.3%), compared to that using the batch-mode learning. The regression analysis indicates a significant decrease of MAD (p-value = 0.063) and a significant (p-value = 0.044) increase of Prop(MAD

Approximate processing of massive continuous quantile queries over high-speed data streams

Quantile computation has many applications including data mining and financial data analysis. It has been shown that an is an element of-approximate summary can be maintained so that, given a quantile query d (phi, is an element of), the data item at rank [phi N] may be approximately obtained within the rank error precision is an element of N over all N data items in a data stream or in a sliding window. However, scalable online processing of massive continuous quantile queries with different phi and is an element of poses a new challenge because the summary is continuously updated with new arrivals of data items. In this paper, first we aim to dramatically reduce the number of distinct query results by grouping a set of different queries into a cluster so that they can be processed virtually as a single query while the precision requirements from users can be retained. Second, we aim to minimize the total query processing costs. Efficient algorithms are developed to minimize the total number of times for reprocessing clusters and to produce the minimum number of clusters, respectively. The techniques are extended to maintain near-optimal clustering when queries are registered and removed in an arbitrary fashion against whole data streams or sliding windows. In addition to theoretical analysis, our performance study indicates that the proposed techniques are indeed scalable with respect to the number of input queries as well as the number of items and the item arrival rate in a data stream.

Toward efficient multifeature query processing

In many advanced applications, data are described by multiple high-dimensional features. Moreover, different queries may weight these features differently; some may not even specify all the features. In this paper, we propose our solution to support efficient query processing in these applications. We devise a novel representation that compactly captures f features into two components: The first component is a 2D vector that reflects a distance range ( minimum and maximum values) of the f features with respect to a reference point ( the center of the space) in a metric space and the second component is a bit signature, with two bits per dimension, obtained by analyzing each feature's descending energy histogram. This representation enables two levels of filtering: The first component prunes away points that do not share similar distance ranges, while the bit signature filters away points based on the dimensions of the relevant features. Moreover, the representation facilitates the use of a single index structure to further speed up processing. We employ the classical B+-tree for this purpose. We also propose a KNN search algorithm that exploits the access orders of critical dimensions of highly selective features and partial distances to prune the search space more effectively. Our extensive experiments on both real-life and synthetic data sets show that the proposed solution offers significant performance advantages over sequential scan and retrieval methods using single and multiple VA-files.

Mixture models for detecting differentially expressed genes in microarrays

An important and common problem in microarray experiments is the detection of genes that are differentially expressed in a given number of classes. As this problem concerns the selection of significant genes from a large pool of candidate genes, it needs to be carried out within the framework of multiple hypothesis testing. In this paper, we focus on the use of mixture models to handle the multiplicity issue. With this approach, a measure of the local FDR (false discovery rate) is provided for each gene. An attractive feature of the mixture model approach is that it provides a framework for the estimation of the prior probability that a gene is not differentially expressed, and this probability can subsequently be used in forming a decision rule. The rule can also be formed to take the false negative rate into account. We apply this approach to a well-known publicly available data set on breast cancer, and discuss our findings with reference to other approaches.

A Computational Framework for Institutional Agency

This paper provides a computational framework, based on Defeasible Logic, to capture some aspects of institutional agency. Our background is Kanger-Lindahl-P\"orn account of organised interaction, which describes this interaction within a multi-modal logical setting. This work focuses in particular on the notions of counts-as link and on those of attempt and of personal and direct action to realise states of affairs. We show how standard Defeasible Logic can be extended to represent these concepts: the resulting system preserves some basic properties commonly attributed to them. In addition, the framework enjoys nice computational properties, as it turns out that the extension of any theory can be computed in time linear to the size of the theory itself.

DR-NEGOTIATE - A system for automated agent negotiation with defeasible logic-based strategies

This paper reports on a system for automated agent negotiation, based on a formal and executable approach to capture the behavior of parties involved in a negotiation. It uses the JADE agent framework, and its major distinctive feature is the use of declarative negotiation strategies. The negotiation strategies are expressed in a declarative rules language, defeasible logic, and are applied using the implemented system DR-DEVICE. The key ideas and the overall system architecture are described, and a particular negotiation case is presented in detail.

BIO Logical Agents: Norms, Beliefs, Intentions in Defeasible Logic

In this paper we follow the BOID (Belief, Obligation, Intention, Desire) architecture to describe agents and agent types in Defeasible Logic. We argue, in particular, that the introduction of obligations can provide a new reading of the concepts of intention and intentionality. Then we examine the notion of social agent (i.e., an agent where obligations prevail over intentions) and discuss some computational and philosophical issues related to it. We show that the notion of social agent either requires more complex computations or has some philosophical drawbacks.

Variants of temporal defeasible logics for modelling norm modifications

This paper proposes some variants of Temporal Defeasible Logic (TDL) to reason about normative modifications. These variants make it possible to differentiate cases in which, for example, modifications at some time change legal rules but their conclusions persist afterwards from cases where also their conclusions are blocked.

Strategic argumentation: A game theoretical investigation

Argumentation is modelled as a game where the payoffs are measured in terms of the probability that the claimed conclusion is, or is not, defeasibly provable, given a history of arguments that have actually been exchanged, and given the probability of the factual premises. The probability of a conclusion is calculated using a standard variant of Defeasible Logic, in combination with standard probability calculus. It is a new element of the present approach that the exchange of arguments is analysed with game theoretical tools, yielding a prescriptive and to some extent even predictive account of the actual course of play. A brief comparison with existing argument-based dialogue approaches confirms that such a prescriptive account of the actual argumentation has been almost lacking in the approaches proposed so far.

A Logic Framework of Normative-based Contract Management

We explore of the feasibility of the computationally oriented institutional agency framework proposed by Governatori and Rotolo testing it against an industrial strength scenario. In particular we show how to encode in defeasible logic the dispute resolution policy described in Article 67 of FIDIC.

Contextual Deliberation of Cognitive Agents in Defeasible Logic

This article extends Defeasible Logic to deal with the contextual deliberation process of cognitive agents. First, we introduce meta-rules to reason with rules. Meta-rules are rules that have as a consequent rules for motivational components, such as obligations, intentions and desires. In other words, they include nested rules. Second, we introduce explicit preferences among rules. They deal with complex structures where nested rules can be involved.

A wavelet visible difference predictor

In this paper, we describe a model of the human visual system (HVS) based on the wavelet transform. This model is largely based on a previously proposed model, but has a number of modifications that make it more amenable to potential integration into a wavelet based image compression scheme. These modifications include the use of a separable wavelet transform instead of the cortex transform, the application of a wavelet contrast sensitivity function (CSP), and a simplified definition of subband contrast that allows us to predict noise visibility directly from wavelet coefficients. Initially, we outline the luminance, frequency, and masking sensitivities of the HVS and discuss how these can be incorporated into the wavelet transform. We then outline a number of limitations of the wavelet transform as a model of the HVS, namely the lack of translational invariance and poor orientation sensitivity. In order to investigate the efficacy of this wavelet based model, a wavelet visible difference predictor (WVDP) is described. The WVDP is then used to predict visible differences between an original and compressed (or noisy) image. Results are presented to emphasize the limitations of commonly used measures of image quality and to demonstrate the performance of the WVDP, The paper concludes with suggestions on bow the WVDP can be used to determine a visually optimal quantization strategy for wavelet coefficients and produce a quantitative measure of image quality.

Knowledge discovery and data mining in biological databases

The new technologies for Knowledge Discovery from Databases (KDD) and data mining promise to bring new insights into a voluminous growing amount of biological data. KDD technology is complementary to laboratory experimentation and helps speed up biological research. This article contains an introduction to KDD, a review of data mining tools, and their biological applications. We discuss the domain concepts related to biological data and databases, as well as current KDD and data mining developments in biology.

Context-free and context-sensitive dynamics in recurrent neural networks

Continuous-valued recurrent neural networks can learn mechanisms for processing context-free languages. The dynamics of such networks is usually based on damped oscillation around fixed points in state space and requires that the dynamical components are arranged in certain ways. It is shown that qualitatively similar dynamics with similar constraints hold for a(n)b(n)c(n), a context-sensitive language. The additional difficulty with a(n)b(n)c(n), compared with the context-free language a(n)b(n), consists of 'counting up' and 'counting down' letters simultaneously. The network solution is to oscillate in two principal dimensions, one for counting up and one for counting down. This study focuses on the dynamics employed by the sequential cascaded network, in contrast to the simple recurrent network, and the use of backpropagation through time. Found solutions generalize well beyond training data, however, learning is not reliable. The contribution of this study lies in demonstrating how the dynamics in recurrent neural networks that process context-free languages can also be employed in processing some context-sensitive languages (traditionally thought of as requiring additional computation resources). This continuity of mechanism between language classes contributes to our understanding of neural networks in modelling language learning and processing.