A landscape-scale test of the predictive ability of a spatially explicit model for population viability analysis

1. Although population viability analysis (PVA) is widely employed, forecasts from PVA models are rarely tested. This study in a fragmented forest in southern Australia contrasted field data on patch occupancy and abundance for the arboreal marsupial greater glider Petauroides volans with predictions from a generic spatially explicit PVA model. This work represents one of the first landscape-scale tests of its type. 2. Initially we contrasted field data from a set of eucalypt forest patches totalling 437 ha with a naive null model in which forecasts of patch occupancy were made, assuming no fragmentation effects and based simply on remnant area and measured densities derived from nearby unfragmented forest. The naive null model predicted an average total of approximately 170 greater gliders, considerably greater than the true count (n = 81). 3. Congruence was examined between field data and predictions from PVA under several metapopulation modelling scenarios. The metapopulation models performed better than the naive null model. Logistic regression showed highly significant positive relationships between predicted and actual patch occupancy for the four scenarios (P = 0.001-0.006). When the model-derived probability of patch occupancy was high (0.50-0.75, 0.75-1.00), there was greater congruence between actual patch occupancy and the predicted probability of occupancy. 4. For many patches, probability distribution functions indicated that model predictions for animal abundance in a given patch were not outside those expected by chance. However, for some patches the model either substantially over-predicted or under-predicted actual abundance. Some important processes, such as inter-patch dispersal, that influence the distribution and abundance of the greater glider may not have been adequately modelled. 5. Additional landscape-scale tests of PVA models, on a wider range of species, are required to assess further predictions made using these tools. This will help determine those taxa for which predictions are and are not accurate and give insights for improving models for applied conservation management.

Movement-related potentials in Huntington's disease: movement preparation and execution

Movement-related potentials (MRPs) reflect increasing cortical activity related to the preparation and execution of voluntary movement. Execution and preparatory components may be separated by comparing MRPs recorded from actual and imagined movement. Imagined movement initiates preparatory processes, but not motor execution activity. MRPs are maximal over the supplementary motor area (SMA), an area of the cortex involved in the planning and preparation of movement. The SMA receives input from the basal ganglia, which are affected in Huntington's disease (HD), a hyperkinetic movement disorder. In order to further elucidate the effects of the disorder upon the cortical activity relating to movement, MRPs were recorded from ten HD patients, and ten age-matched controls, whilst they performed and imagined performing a sequential button-pressing task. HD patients produced MRPs of significantly reduced size both for performed and imagined movement. The component relating to movement execution was obtained by subtracting the MRP for imagined movement from the MRP for performed movement, and was found to be normal in HD. The movement preparation component was found by subtracting the MRP found for a control condition of watching the visual cues from the MRP for imagined movement. This preparation component in HD was reduced in early slope, peak amplitude, and post-peak slope. This study therefore reported abnormal MRPs in HD. particularly in terms of the components relating to movement preparation, and this finding may further explain the movement deficits reported in the disease.

Cervical screening: population-based comparisons between self-reported survey and registry-derived Pap test rates

Objective: To compare self-reported cervical screening rates, as recorded in the 1998 NSW Health Survey, with registry-based cervical screening rates for NSW for the same period; and to examine factors associated with over-estimates of cervical screening rates by self-report. Methods: Self-reported cervical screening data was extracted from the 1998 NSW Health Survey, biennial screening rates estimated and compared with biennial cervical screening rates for 1997-98, as recorded on the NSW Pap Test Register (PTR). Rates and differences were related to socio-demographic characteristics of the 17 Area Health Services of NSW. Results: According to the 1998 NSW Health Survey, 74% of women reported having a Pap test during the previous two years. The equivalent rate recorded on the NSW PTR for 1997-98 was 62% (p

The preparation and execution of self-initiated and externally-triggered movement: A study of event-related fMRI

Studies of functional brain imaging in humans and single cell recordings in monkeys have generally shown preferential involvement of the medially located supplementary motor area (SMA) in self-initiated movement and the lateral premotor cortex in externally cued movement. Studies of event-related cortical potentials recorded during movement preparation, however, generally show increased cortical activity prior to self-initiated movements but little activity at early stages prior to movements that are externally cued at unpredictable times. In this study, the spatial location and relative timing of activation for self-initiated and externally triggered movements were examined using rapid event-related functional MRI. Twelve healthy right-handed subjects were imaged while performing a brief finger sequence movement (three rapid alternating button presses: index-middle-index finger) made either in response to an unpredictably timed auditory cue (between 8 to 24 s after the previous movement) or at self-paced irregular intervals. Both movement conditions involved similar strong activation of medial motor areas including the pre-SMA, SMA proper, and rostral cingulate cortex, as well as activation within contralateral primary motor, superior parietal, and insula cortex. Activation within the basal ganglia was found for self-initiated movements only, while externally triggered movements involved additional bilateral activation of primary auditory cortex. Although the level of SMA and cingulate cortex activation did not differ significantly between movement conditions, the timing of the hemodynamic response within the pre-SMA was significantly earlier for self-initiated compared with externally triggered movements. This clearly reflects involvement of the pre-SMA in early processes associated with the preparation for voluntary movement. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science.

A spectral-based cusum test of evolutionary change

We develop a test of evolutionary change that incorporates a null hypothesis of homogeneity, which encompasses time invariance in the variance and autocovariance structure of residuals from estimated econometric relationships. The test framework is based on examining whether shifts in spectral decomposition between two frames of data are significant. Rejection of the null hypothesis will point not only to weak nonstationarity but to shifts in the structure of the second-order moments of the limiting distribution of the random process. This would indicate that the second-order properties of any underlying attractor set has changed in a statistically significant way, pointing to the presence of evolutionary change. A demonstration of the test's applicability to a real-world macroeconomic problem is accomplished by applying the test to the Australian Building Society Deposits (ABSD) model.

The preparation and readiness for voluntary movement: a high-field event-related fMRI study of the Bereitschafts-BOLD response

Activity within motor areas of the cortex begins to increase 1 to 2 s prior to voluntary self-initiated movement (termed the Bereitschaftspotential or readiness potential). There has been much speculation and debate over the precise source of this early premovement activity as it is important for understanding the roles of higher order motor areas in the preparation and readiness for voluntary movement. In this study, we use high-field (3-T) event-related fMRI with high temporal sampling (partial brain volumes every 250 ms) to specifically examine hemodynamic response time courses during the preparation, readiness, and execution of purely self-initiated voluntary movement. Five right-handed healthy volunteers performed a rapid sequential finger-to-thumb movement performed at self-determined times (12-15 trials). Functional images for each trial were temporally aligned and the averaged time series for each subject was iteratively correlated with a canonical hemodynamic response function progressively shifted in time. This analysis method identified areas of activation without constraining hemodynamic response timing. All subjects showed activation within frontal mesial areas, including supplementary motor area (SMA) and cingulate motor areas, as well as activation in left primary sensorimotor areas. The time courses of hemodynamic responses showed a great deal of variability in shape and timing between subjects; however, four subjects clearly showed earlier relative hemodynamic responses within SMA/cingulate motor areas compared with left primary motor areas. These results provide further evidence that the SMA and cingulate motor areas are major contributors to early stage premovement activity and play an important role in the preparation and readiness for voluntary movement. (C) 2003 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Whispered voice test for screening for hearing impairment in adults and children: systematic review

Objective To determine the accuracy of the whispered voice test in detecting hearing impairment in adults and children. Design Systematic review of studies of test accuracy. Data sources Medline, Embase, Science Citation Index, unpublished theses, manual searching of bibliographies of known primary and review articles, and contact with authors. Study selection Two reviewers independently selected and extracted data on study characteristics, quality, and accuracy of studies. Studies were included if they had cross sectional designs, at least one of the index tests was the whispered voice test, and the reference test (audiometry) was performed on at least 80% of the participants. Data extraction Data were used to form 2x2 contingency tables with hearing impairment by audiometry as the reference standard. Data synthesis The eight studies that were found used six different techniques. The sensitivity in the four adult studies was 90% or 100% and the specificity was 70% to 87%. The sensitivity in the four childhood studies ranged from 80% to 96% and specificity ranged from 90% to 98%. Conclusion The whispered voice test is a simple and accurate test for detecting hearing impairment. There is some concern regarding the lower sensitivity in children and the overall reproducibility of the test, particularly in primary care settings. Further studies should be conducted in primary care settings to explore the influence of components of the testing procedure to optimise test sensitivity and to promote standardisation of the testing procedure.

Falls prevention in rural general practice: what stands the test of time and where to from here?

Objective: General practitioner recall of the 1992-96 'Stay on Your Feet'(SOYF) program and its influence on practice were surveyed five years post-intervention to gauge sustainability of the SOYF General Practice (GP) component. Methods: A survey assessed which SOYF components were still in existence, current practice related to falls prevention, and interest in professional development. All general practitioners (GPs) situated within the boundaries of a rural Area Health Service were mailed a survey in late 2001. Results: Response rate was 66.5% (139/ 209). Of 117 GPs in practice at the time of SOYF, 80.2% reported having heard of SOYF and 74.4% of those felt it had influenced practice. Half (50.9%) still had a copy of the SOYF GP resource and of those, 58.6% used it at least 'occasionally'. Three-quarters of GPs surveyed (75.2%) checked medications 'most/almost all' of the time with patients over 60 years; 46.7% assessed falls risk factors; 41.3% gave advice; and 22.6% referred to allied health practitioners. GPs indicated a strong interest in falls prevention- related professional development. There was no significant association between use of the SOYF resource package and any of the current falls prevention practices (all chi(2)>0.05). Conclusions and implications: There was high recall of SOYF and a general belief that it influenced practice. There was little indication that use of the resource had any lasting influence on GPs' practices. In future, careful thought needs to go into designing a program that has potential to affect long-term change in GPs' falls prevention practice.

Offspring size effects in the marine environment: A field test for a colonial invertebrate

A central tenet of life-history theory is the presence of a trade-off between the size and number of offspring that a female can produce for a given clutch. A crucial assumption of this trade-off is that larger offspring perform better than smaller offspring. Despite the importance of this assumption empirical, field-based tests are rare, especially for marine organisms. We tested this assumption for the marine invertebrate, Diplosoma listerianum, a colonial ascidian that commonly occurs in temperate marine communities. Colonies that came from larger larvae had larger feeding structures than colonies that came from smaller larvae. Colonies that came from larger larvae also had higher survival and growth after 2 weeks in the field than colonies that came from smaller larvae. However, after 3 weeks in the field the colonies began to fragment and we could not detect an effect of larval size. We suggest that offspring size can have strong effects on the initial recruitment of D. listerianum but because of the tendency of this species to fragment, offspring size effects are less persistent in this species than in others.

Macroscopic test of quantum mechanics versus stochastic electrodynamics

We identify a test of quantum mechanics versus macroscopic local realism in the form of stochastic electrodynamics. The test uses the steady-state triple quadrature correlations of a parametric oscillator below threshold.

Movement-related potentials in Parkinson's disease - Motor imagery and movement preparation

Movement-related potentials (MRPs) associated with voluntary movements reflect cortical activity associated with processes Of movement preparation and movement execution. Early-stage pre-movement activity is reduced in amplitude in Parkinson's disease. However it is unclear whether this neurophysiological deficit relates to preparatory or execution-related activity, since previous studies have not been able to separate different functional components of MRPs. Motor imagery is thought to involve mainly processes of movement preparation, with reduced involvement of end-stage movement execution-related processes. Therefore, MRP components relating to movement preparation and execution may be examined separately by comparing MRPs associated with imagined and actual movements. In this study, MRPs were recorded from 14 subjects with Parkinson's disease and 10 age-matched control subjects while they performed a sequential button-pressing task, and while they imagined performance of the same task. Early-stage pre-movement activity was present in both Parkinson's disease patients and control subjects when they imagined movement, but was reduced in amplitude compared with that for actual movement. Movement execution-related components, arising predominantly from the primary motor cortex, were relatively unaffected in Parkinson's disease subjects. However motor preparatory processes, probably involving the supplementary motor area, were reduced in amplitude overall and abnormally prolonged, Indicating impaired termination following the motor response. Further this impaired termination of preparatory-phase activity was observed only in patients with more severe parkinsonian symptoms, and not in early-stage Parkinson's disease.