Simulation modelling applied to runoff modelling using mapscript

Dynamic spatial analysis addresses computational aspects of space–time processing. This paper describes the development of a spatial analysis tool and modelling framework that together offer a solution for simulating landscape processes. A better approach to integrating landscape spatial analysis with Geographical Information Systems is advocated in this paper. Enhancements include special spatial operators and map algebra language constructs to handle dispersal and advective flows over landscape surfaces. These functional components to landscape modelling are developed in a modular way and are linked together in a modelling framework that performs dynamic simulation. The concepts and modelling framework are demonstrated using a hydrological modelling example. The approach provides a modelling environment for scientists and land resource managers to write and to visualize spatial process models with ease.

Inter-organisational networks, value creation and the process of technology integration in research and development

Traditional methods of R&D management are no longer sufficient for embracing innovations and leveraging complex new technologies to fully integrated positions in established systems. This paper presents the view that the technology integration process is a result of fundamental interactions embedded in inter-organisational activities. Emerging industries, high technology companies and knowledge intensive organisations owe a large part of their viability to complex networks of inter-organisational interactions and relationships. R&D organisations are the gatekeepers in the technology integration process with their initial sanction and motivation to develop technologies providing the first point of entry. Networks rely on the activities of stakeholders to provide the foundations of collaborative R&D activities, business-to-business marketing and strategic alliances. Such complex inter-organisational interactions and relationships influence value creation and organisational goals as stakeholders seek to gain investment opportunities. A theoretical model is developed here that contributes to our understanding of technology integration (adoption) as a dynamic process, which is simultaneously structured and enacted through the activities of stakeholders and organisations in complex inter-organisational networks of sanction and integration.

Action research to explore perceptions of risk in project management

Uses research in a major UK company on the introduction of an electronic document management system to explore perceptions of, and attitudes to, risk. Phenomenological methods were used; with subsequent dialogue transcripts evaluated with Winmax dialogue software, using an adapted theoretical framework based upon an analysis of the literature. The paper identifies a number of factors, and builds a framework, that should support a greater understanding of risk assessment and project management by the academic community and practitioners.

Implications of seasonal climate forecasts on world wheat trade: a stochastic, dynamic analysis

Improvements in seasonal climate forecasts have potential economic implications for international agriculture. A stochastic, dynamic simulation model of the international wheat economy is developed to estimate the potential effects of seasonal climate forecasts for various countries' wheat production, exports and world trade. Previous studies have generally ignored the stochastic and dynamic aspects of the effects associated with the use of climate forecasts. This study shows the importance of these aspects. In particular with free trade, the use of seasonal forecasts results in increased producer surplus across all exporting countries. In fact, producers appear to capture a large share of the economic surplus created by using the forecasts. Further, the stochastic dimensions suggest that while the expected long-run benefits of seasonal forecasts are positive, considerable year-to-year variation in the distribution of benefits between producers and consumers should be expected. The possibility exists for an economic measure to increase or decrease over a 20-year horizon, depending on the particular sequence of years.

The impact of organizational culture and reshaping capabilities on change implementation success: The mediating role of readiness for change

It was hypothesized that employees' perceptions of an organizational culture strong in human relations values and open systems values would be associated with heightened levels of readiness for change which, in turn, would be predictive of change implementation success. Similarly, it was predicted that reshaping capabilities would lead to change implementation success, via its effects on employees' perceptions of readiness for change. Using a temporal research design, these propositions were tested for 67 employees working in a state government department who were about to undergo the implementation of a new end-user computing system in their workplace. Change implementation success was operationalized as user satisfaction and system usage. There was evidence to suggest that employees who perceived strong human relations values in their division at Time 1 reported higher levels of readiness for change at pre-implementation which, in turn, predicted system usage at Time 2. In addition, readiness for change mediated the relationship between reshaping capabilities and system usage. Analyses also revealed that pre-implementation levels of readiness for change exerted a positive main effect on employees' satisfaction with the system's accuracy, user friendliness, and formatting functions at post-implementation. These findings are discussed in terms of their theoretical contribution to the readiness for change literature, and in relation to the practical importance of developing positive change attitudes among employees if change initiatives are to be successful.

Characterizing a tropical deforestation wave: a dynamic spatial analysis of a deforestation hotspot in the Colombian Amazon

Tropical deforestation is the major contemporary threat to global biodiversity, because a diminishing extent of tropical forests supports the majority of the Earth's biodiversity. Forest clearing is often spatially concentrated in regions where human land use pressures, either planned or unplanned, increase the likelihood of deforestation. However, it is not a random process, but often moves in waves originating from settled areas. We investigate the spatial dynamics of land cover change in a tropical deforestation hotspot in the Colombian Amazon. We apply a forest cover zoning approach which permitted: calculation of colonization speed; comparative spatial analysis of patterns of deforestation and regeneration; analysis of spatial patterns of mature and recently regenerated forests; and the identification of local-level hotspots experiencing the fastest deforestation or regeneration. The colonization frontline moved at an average of 0.84 km yr(-1) from 1989 to 2002, resulting in the clearing of 3400 ha yr(-1) of forests beyond the 90% forest cover line. The dynamics of forest clearing varied across the colonization front according to the amount of forest in the landscape, but was spatially concentrated in well-defined 'local hotspots' of deforestation and forest regeneration. Behind the deforestation front, the transformed landscape mosaic is composed of cropping and grazing lands interspersed with mature forest fragments and patches of recently regenerated forests. We discuss the implications of the patterns of forest loss and fragmentation for biodiversity conservation within a framework of dynamic conservation planning.

Quotable value: A case of increasing value

In 2005 Quotable Value was New Zealand’s largest valuation and property information organisation with approximately 230 staff and 22 offices throughout the country. While Government reforms within New Zealand had forced this former Government department to operate in a competitive market, a booming property industry and a number of innovative projects generating new income streams had fuelled Quotable Value’s success and growth. Recent changes in the economic environment, however, and predictions that the property bubble would soon burst, also presented a number of threats. The challenge for Quotable Value was how to sustain and build further growth.

The risky business of doctoral management

Universities are under no less pressure to adopt risk management strategies than other public and private organisations. The risk management of doctoral education is a particularly important issue given that a doctorate is the highest academic qualification a university offers and stakes are high in terms of assuring its quality. However, intense risk management can interfere with the intellectual and pedagogical work which are essentially part of doctoral education. This paper seeks to understand how the culture of risk meets the culture of doctoral education and with what effect. The authors draw on sociological understandings of risk in the work of Anthony Giddens (2002) and Ulrich Beck (1992), the anthropological focus on liminality in the work of Mary Douglas (1990), and the psychological theorising of human error in the work of James Reason (1990). The paper concludes that risk consciousness brings its own risks—in particular, the potential transformation of a culture based on intellect into a culture based on compliance.

Validation of multicriteria analysis models

Validation procedures play an important role in establishing the credibility of models, improving their relevance and acceptability. This article reviews the testing of models relevant to environmental and natural resource management with particular emphasis on models used in multicriteria analysis (MCA). Validation efforts for a model used in a MCA catchment management study in North Queensland, Australia, are presented. Determination of face validity is found to be a useful approach in evaluating this model, and sensitivity analysis is useful in checking the stability of the model. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Gender differentials in the evolution of cigarette smoking habits in a general European adult population from 1993-2003

Background: Describe the recent evolution of cigarette smoking habits by gender in Geneva, where incidence rates of lung cancer have been declining in men but increasing in women. Methods: Continuous cross-sectional surveillance of the general adult ( 35 - 74 yrs) population of Geneva, Switzerland for 11 years ( 1993 - 2003) using a locally-validated smoking questionnaire, yielding a representative random sample of 12,271 individuals ( 6,164 men, 6,107 women). Results: In both genders, prevalence of current cigarette smoking was stable over the 11-year period, at about one third of men and one quarter of women, even though smoking began at an earlier age in more recent years. Older men were more likely to be former smokers than older women. Younger men, but not women, tended to quit smoking at an earlier age. Conclusion: This continuous ( 1993 - 2003) risk factor surveillance system, unique in Europe, shows stable prevalence of smoking in both genders. However, sharp contrasts in age-specific prevalence of never and former smoking and of ages at smoking initiation indicate that smoking continues a long-term decline in men but has still not reached its peak in women.